Israel: Could Arab parties play kingmaker in the next Knesset ?

Could Israel's Arab parties play the role of kingmaker in the next Knesset? More than 7 million Israelis are heading to the polls on October 27 to vote in the country's first legislative election since Hamas's October 7 attacks. PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his key rival, former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, are running neck-and-neck in the polls. However, neither contender is projected to win enough seats to form a government. And this is where Arab parties could play a crucial role. Let me explain. Israeli Arab parties in the Knesset represent the interests of some 2.1 million Arab Israelis, who make up 21% of Israel's population. Today, experts say these parties represent the third camp in Israeli politics, which makes their support critical. After the elections, the Israeli president will call on the political party with the most support to form a government. Neither Netanyahu's Likud party nor Eisenkot's Yesharim look likely to get the required 61 out of 120 seats in the Knesset. Thus, they will have to rely on forming coalitions with other parties, including Arab parties, to have any chance of governing. This actually gives rise to chances and options in case an Arab party joins the opposing camp to Netanyahu. Then, the opposing camp currently headed by Gadi Eisenkot may have the necessary majority in the Israeli Knesset. According to recent polls, the Israel camp and the Arab parties together comprise some 75 seats out of the 120 seats in the Knesset. Between 70 to 75 seats. On October 10th, the leader of the Joint List Political Alliance, which comprises four Arab parties, extended his support to any coalition that would bring down Netanyahu's government. This support, however, is conditional. It requires a commitment to a dedicated budget to combat crime in Arab neighborhoods and the development of a roadmap for a future Palestinian state. However, any such coalition would rely on Eisenkot's group being open to a partnership. Some Jewish parties, even within the Eisenkot camp, actually are reluctant, not to say opposed, to integrating Arab parties in the next governing coalition. And this actually prolongs the statement, the political stalemate expressed in Israel. Eisenkot himself said in September that no Arab party fulfills the conditions to join his coalition, which include recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, supporting mandatory military service and recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization. However, the centrist leader may have no choice. As it looks right now, there are not high chances that actually a new government will be able to be formed if it would not include at least one Arab party. So while Arab parties may not be able to choose Israel's next prime minister themselves, they will likely have a say in who governs the country after this election.