Coronal Hole Impact Tonight & On The 20th! Another Earth Facing So Flare Today!

James Kaufman, World News Report today. Ladies and gentlemen, we've had a fairly strong solar flare. Earth-directed again today. It did look like it lifted a coronal mass ejection up towards Earth. Again, it was directly Earth-facing. It was generated by the same sunspot that's been giving us trouble, AR4392. This was a 2.75 M flare. An M2.75 flare, very similar to the one we had the other day, the 2.79 flare right here. Now, we're also expecting to be hit by a coronal mass ejection this evening, and again on the 20th. Today, the 18th this evening, and again on the 20th, so we will see some aurora borealis. That's going to be generated by this flare here that will be hitting us this evening, and then the flare that we just experienced the 2.75 that should hit us late on the 20th let's take a look at that over to spaceweatherlive.com you can see that 2.75 here that did bang off right here peaked at 8:42 this morning and that's going to be well UTC time so it's going to be 1:42 last night central time here in the U.S. 1:42 central time here in the U.S. I think we were still alive at that point an M 2.75 solar flare from that same beta gamma sunspot group AR4392 now this same sunspot group actually generated the M 2.79 two days ago on the 16th it should be inbound for this evening now they haven't marked for the 19th but that's UTC time it will be here this evening i'll give you some exact timing in just a moment but we have both of these inbound one for tonight one for the 20th afternoon of the 20th currently we have a 10 percent chance of X class solar flares a 35 percent chance of M class solar flares that ship has sailed a 75 percent chance of C-class solar flares, and we're running a very measly B3.56 baseline. Now, while it has been a fairly quiet day on our Earth-facing solar star, it has been more busy than we've seen it in quite some time. Over the last couple of days, it's really ticked up a bit. We had a real lull there for about six weeks, and now the sun is reawakening. We do have sunspots coming around the limb that look active, and we should see more M and maybe X-class solar flares in the near-term future. Over to HMI intensitygram, talk about directly Earth-facing AR4392, beta-gamma, not delta, but beta-gamma, and we have four additional sunspot groups. one that looks fairly complex coming around the limb here and the rest that don't look very complex at all 4395 4393 and 4391 total of five sunspot groups one being complex i.e beta gamma headed over to go solar ultraviolet imager 195 angstroms you see that we have a coronal hole south of us. I don't know how geo-effective that will be looking for solar winds if it is. We have another one that's formed right here. This will definitely send solar winds our way, i.e. it can't be as completely innocent as it is here. However, it shouldn't be a long-term event. Staring straight at us is AR-43-92. That's our beta-gamma sunspot. You can see the others kind of, well, all over except for the one sunspot I mentioned here that looked a little bit more complex than the rest of them I would imagine that it would become a beta gamma sunspot overnight based on what we're seeing here I wanted to qualify based on what we're seeing here taking a look at SDO HMI magnetogram we can see that that sunspot is actually black over white or negative over positive, which is a reverse polarity sunspot in the northern hemisphere. You should always see positive or white over black in the northern hemisphere, and black over white in the southern hemisphere. Now the poles will be flipping shortly, and that might change very soon, but right now, anytime you see black over white, you're looking at a reverse polarity sunspot, which means it's more complex. That's why I would guesstimate or guess that this would at least be a beta gamma sunspot by morning. Let's roll out NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. You can see that this is Earth up here and the plasma associated with the impact of Earth. This is stereo A. We don't have a stereo B or C anymore. And this is, well, these are solar winds that might hit Earth. So what I don't see are those coronal holes acting up. I think the plasma overtakes those coronal holes. The plasma is shown in green here, and the solar wind is shown in green here. We do see the solar winds hit stereo A here, which is pretty interesting stuff you can imagine that they would have to hit earth as well well they're taking up over 700 kilometers per second here all right let's get busy here it says we're going to see it happen on the 19th about 2 UTC time that's really going to be about nine o'clock tonight on the 18th central time here in the U.S. so from about nine to midnight we should see an impact they're guessing only about 15 centimeters cubed of plasma but it is a longer term event six plus hours uh it looks like even longer than that it looks like it is almost 21 22 hours so we're going to look for that event here there's a double top there that again should be impacting about nine or 10 tonight, central time here in the U.S. and the flare that we just had has already been modeled to impact a few hours into the day on the 21st, which is really going to be about 10 o'clock on the 20th, central time here in the U.S. So, again, we're going to be hit tonight on the 18th, and we're going to be hit on the 20th late in the evening as well that said god bless you guys i hope y'all understood and i hope i didn't stutter please share please subscribe always remember anything's possible bizarro world