The Weekly Strategy Session - 27th October 2026

Okay, guys, welcome to the weekly strategy session. Okay, now this is a good chance for us to have a look at the week, see how things have panned out. The good thing is we've had a full Monday where everything has, you know, had time to sort of be factored into the market. Any news? I'll tell you what, for me, the good news is, like, I don't see Trump around here. The only thing I see is his rating falling dramatically. So that's why the markets are sort of a little bit more responsive. And this is where this week really comes into play because having a look at the calendar, if you haven't already done so, we've got, let me just fine tune that. We have got, okay, five central banks. We've got the RBNZ tomorrow. It's almost like six, to be honest, because we've got the Aussie CPI numbers. That's like an interest rate meeting in itself. The RBNZ, Bank of Canada. okay um so rbnz and bank of canada both expected to raise rates and if you look at the percentages there on those um bank of canada 96 well actually 77 that's right uh 94 for the rbnz so maybe a bit of a chance for the bank of canada to not go through with it we'll see the rbnz they've definitely loaded up so that's two of the central banks covered you come back and have a look at um the Fed, no change of rates by the Fed. I bet they wish they had the numbers the next day on Thursday. So that's sort of Wednesday. Thursday, you've got PC price index, GDP numbers. And then you've also got the ECB. And on Friday, we've got the Bank of Japan, right? And with five central banks meeting, right, the Bank of Japan, to me, it's just like they've been pushed into the corner by the US. Anyway, they're not raising rates at the moment, but they have been, which is probably a breath of fresh air for the global markets. So we've got all these central bank meetings. Now, I'm having a look at the general run of the markets themselves. And there's a bit of discombobulation, right? The US yields are slowly dribbling back a bit. Prices are up. That means the yields are down um we've got uh the nasdaq which is really the equity markets these days you know that was a little bit positive earlier today it's now negative 0.4 down and we're sort of not really getting although it's getting a little bit better as i said we're not really getting that um pure risk on risk off environment right it's uh the aussie sort of just fitting into place it's only down by 0.01 right so there's not a lot of activity just at the moment And if I have a look at the charts, okay, this is where the markets sort of sit back and wait for a little bit more news. Euro is getting a little bit pounded as the likely interest rate hikes from, say, looking at the progression of the UK, Aussie, even though they're sort of not hiking, it's pretty close to it. You've got all the commodity currencies, Aussie, Kiwi, CAD going up. um i know they've stalled at the moment and that's sort of probably to do with what's coming out right you're not going to load up on the aussie or the kiwi ahead of the rbnz and also the aussie cpi numbers but to me the lag is uh euro you can see the u.s dollar just starting to climb a little bit like there's a bit of uncertainty you look at where the charts are here like on the euro they're not sort of looking awesome and there's there's a bit of a space here between now and where sort of potential resistances so i call this like a bit of a drift right and so sterling is coming off a little bit you got euro sort of dribbling back further aussie holding up and kiwi holding up i was having a look across the board here what's going on if you have a look at the global bonds the um uh actually sterling has actually come back they were all well the price is up which means the yields are lower. Sorry, I should say. Aussie, okay, the prices are down, which means the yields are higher. Yields are higher there in New Zealand as well. So they're looking like, you know, stronger on the back of those setups. The prices in the US, I've already sort of said that, prices are up, so the yields are down a little bit there as well. I should be putting that arrow over here. So just a little bit of jostling on the bond markets. Look at the charts. I've sort of let these charts just sort of let the markets drift. And this is what I quite often do if, you know, at the start of the week, I like to leave it where it was on Friday. And even Monday, I'd like to see where the markets are drifting, right? What that tells me is where the sort of raw nerve of the market is, right? So like dollar Swiss looks like it's squeezing to the top side, not an actual move, but just based off positions. The market's, you know, been getting short dollar Swiss. Nothing's happened. There's no news yet. So it starts, the market starts squeezing to the top side. And Euro sort of looks like it's doing the same. A little bit of sterling, but Aussie and Kiwi sort of holding up at the moment. And you can see DollarCAD's found a little bit of a home here around 140, the figure. The Beast, man, dabble with that as much as you like. But it's, I'm telling you, after 37 years, I've had that much medicine given to me from that thing. I don't like to mess with it too much. All right. So the week ahead. Now, this is like, if I just come back and go into the medium data, we get the first look at the majors today. And this is, you know how I was just saying, we haven't had much news out of the US. Well, today, everything's sort of just drifting here across the board, really. Well, today, we've got the durable goods numbers. This could actually clear things up for us one way or the other. Ideally, what we would like to see, the durable goods is just some sort of variance, whether it's stronger or weaker. See what we've got there. Housing price index, consumer confidence, and new home sales. I think that some of the housing numbers last week were terrible, right? So that could be something that sort of gives us a little bit of an inspiration, give the dollar a little bit of direction as we come into like the start of the week, really is Tuesday. Okay. So Wednesday, Thursday, we're going to be having these sort of sessions if you need them. I'll be here to really run through where the opportunities are and what we're doing. So like today, not a lot, right? You get bits and pieces coming on. Then you come into sort of Wednesday, and this is a bit more of a detailed run through, the CPI numbers, right? Really important for the next move in rates in Australia. Employment numbers were pretty crap. We'll see how they go. Obviously, the RBNZ now, there's not much liquidity here. The market has factored in um you know in the 90s 90 area a hike it's really going to come down to what they say and if you've got um metastock if you're looking around here uh just to give you a bit of a heads up too what i did is i've added actually a few extra columns here right the um you got the new sues euro uk you aussie kiwi cad uh you got the news at the top there what that was is i just got sick of coming over to the regional tab and going through the different areas so i've just duplicated the files here so i can actually have a quick look you can come in and see what's going on and this is where i was talking about the rbnz i mean this is a this is an opinion piece uh they're talking about raising rates and then maybe more in december and etc right i'm telling you after 37 years you see a couple of consecutive rate hikes in new zealand it kills the economy right kills it so the uh i can't see them being too aggressive because it will just fall over like you wouldn't believe okay it's it's it's not looking good for that um and then so that's it so just going through the various bits and pieces if you've got a country like we've got kiwi cad fed um ecb bank of japan it makes sense to actually come through and have a look at the news and i'll tell you what i didn't do is give the uh japan a bit of respect okay and well he does get a bit of a start on the uh on the main pages here on the central banks okay so that's where we are right to me and i've got to say at the start of the week right i've just sort of been feeling out having a look at across a few different pairs getting different signals on the live signals itself and like i haven't been like just jumping into them right so we get the signals here and i was having a look on on various charts um trying to work out what's going on now we do have the matrix score now for those traders who do have access most of you guys should the um it sort of gives a rating to the overall opportunity okay and i have brought back in the level one uh opportunity which is i just come back and just give you a bit of a heads up while i try and explain everything else um it's basically where you've got clear direction and let's come up here let's go bearish see if i can find one bullish and i can't find one basically it would be you've got short-term and long-term direction up and you have the the momentum going up but it's neutral not into the actual prime level so you're still going to get a move to the top side but it's not at an extreme level that's why it is a level one you can see the update on the alerts legend there so but just coming back to that right looking at okay what are the bullish pairs right nothing really sort of fitting into the slot uh bearish pairs once again nothing really in the slot they're all like super stretched or or just drifting so nothing to me feels comfortable at the moment right the um dollar swiss sort of going up and this is where you can get a bit of value with a bit of knowledge and a few tools right dollar swiss going up it's it's overbought right i'm like yeah okay let's just check that out this is one i did check out earlier and if i just come into that you'll see that um you know where dollar swiss is it's like you know i can't seriously draw a trend line from here to the current level okay it just doesn't make sense because you're you're just looking at the recent high, which was 10 minutes ago. So what I would be doing here is, and this is how I sort of quantify whether I'm going to be placing an order in the market, is I just have a quick look and confirm that setup. Because until you have a look, you sort of don't really know. And then I'm like, well, what could you do with this, right? If I've got, that's the high. And I mean, it was going down until this point. I sort of like broken up from here right and then so this is what i was getting at like this is the previous high there's nothing up here right so it could easily just keep drifting higher if the market's caught short dollar swiss okay um well that's it right that's that's what's happening so um okay i can't really uh pinpoint that but that's how i'm sort of going through the signals and i feel like i need to at the moment because there's just not that natural feel to the markets i've been keeping an eye on the yen crosses i'm just laughing because the beast even though i i have a like a healthy respect for it i still i still go and look at the yen crosses because these suckers they can give up some cash but i i take it with a grain of salt i'm looking at it going okay so looking at the top here you've got aussie yen kiwi yen and cad yen right the what you would call the commodity currencies all going up against the yen and you're like well okay they're the ones that have a sort of biased towards higher rates. And then you've got Euro Yen lagging, Sterling Yen lagging, and Swiss Yen. Like the Europeans are like not doing anything. Sterling is the only one that's really sort of having a bit of a crack. Now, these are all quoted the same way, right? So it gives you a bit of an idea with a neutral currency what each of those instruments are doing, okay? And that's something that we are focusing on in the Forex trend guide. So you can get up to speed here with what is actually trending really well. Okay. Overall trend by itself, the yen, the dollar and sterling and negatively the rest of them, right? Price rates, the rates are sort of pretty self-explanatory. We've just been through the rates. And if you come down to the actual matrix itself, the best trending instruments right now. These are the instruments that if you look at them individually and then line them up with strength and weakness, that's what you get, right? To me, and I had a couple of questions about this. This is really the longer term perspective, right? The daily charts. So these are worth investigating to put a longer term trade into play. You might have a slightly a bigger stop loss, maybe a smaller position, and then just give it a chance to run, right? Because the trending instruments here, like all the eight major currencies, they don't change every day, right? So that is a good thing to be potentially getting into trades. I know Ben has been trading a lot more longer term. Ben's based in South Africa. So that's something that you could think about, right? And I've actually, whilst I'm on there, I know I'm jumping around a bit, but I have had a few updates. I did actually throw in here for traders looking for a bit more detail on the Forex trend guide. There's another little component there as well. So you can actually sort of get up the curve. In saying that, we do have a longer session that we did last week on the secret sauce, which is the Forex trend guide, right? Okay. So that's where we are. I'm looking at the markets, looking at the core week. Now, what we do need to see, we just need to hear what these central banks are saying, right? The rates are fact, like all the moves here or no moves are largely factored into the market. So there's not much to see. The cab was at 77%. That's probably, I wouldn't say it's a line ball decision, but when it's 77%, it might mean they hike and they suggest maybe more in the future. When it's a full hike, rarely do they come out, unless inflation's going nuts, do they come out and go, yeah, there's your hike, and we're going to belt you again next month, right? They don't do that. They usually go, there's a hike. Now, let's just see how inflation comes back from here. So most of these central banks, the market will be waiting just to get confirmation what they're doing, what the plan is, okay? Aussie CPI numbers are a chance to actually, that is the forward guidance in that result, right? So be watching that very closely. And that will have a big influence over the hiking scenario here, 64%. I think it was like 54% the other day on hold, right? So Aussie is going to be a line ball decision until we get that CPI number. That's why it's going to be important, right? So think of that Aussie CPI number as the interest rate decision. That's how the bankers, that's how we always looked at it, right? You're like, yeah, the interest rate decision's interesting, but it's largely factored in. This isn't, right? You're like going at that like a bull out of the gates. I wouldn't be sort of trading the number. It's going to be a little bit loose, but what you would be doing is giving up your Aussie crosses and having a look here. Now, this, use the numbers to our advantage, right? But depending if we get stronger or weaker Aussie inflation numbers, this is going to go a long way to actually seeing which crosses, like Aussie Kiwi. So, I mean, if the Kiwis raise rates and they do mention, you know what, we may have more to do and the Aussie numbers are weak, well, Aussie Kiwi is going to take a belting, right? Same for the CAD, right? So the CPI numbers give us the edge on which way the Aussie is going to go. And obviously the Kiwi statement will do the same. So we could see big moves in Aussie Kiwi, Aussie CAD as well, right, because they're very closely together. The markets will be looking at that very closely. We've got the Fed, right? I mean, the central banks always say they don't get access to the data ahead of the schedule, right? So the next day on Thursday, we do get all the PC price index, GDP, jobless claims, et cetera. There's a few sentiment numbers here coming out of the Eurozone. So in amongst the central banks, this is the sort of strategy I'm going to be sort of looking for is, okay, I'm going to watch these central banks roll out. In between that, I'm going to look for opportunities on specific numbers, right? This will give us a bit of an edge on what the Aussie is doing. So the Aussie crosses will most probably be all in play. The ones that have got central banks coming out gives us even more answers. The Fed, okay, no change of rates. I can't imagine they're going to be too aggressive. but once they do give us if they give us a bias whether it's a hawkish or neutral bias they're not going to be dovish right that gives us the edge on the dollar so then we can actually put one and two together so the next day the U.S. PCE price index GDP etc we could actually have clear dollar direction right so we may not see with the Fed um here on Wednesday and all the numbers coming out Thursday, it may be sort of Wednesday, Thursday before we start to see clear direction on the dollar, right? And that's what you can get by just going through and assessing everything, right? Because what that means is, okay, we're going to be looking at the crosses, right? All the crosses are in play, leave the US major pairs or the majors out of play, right? As I said, the ECB or Euro has been left behind. Now, they would love it because the euro is cheaper, which makes them more competitive. But no change of rates expected here. Christine Lagarde is getting close to the end of her term, and I'm sure there's a lot of bitchfighting in the ECB around who's taking over. Will we get much out of that? I don't think so. But euro's already got a weak tone, so any sort of negative sort of implement details there should give us some ideas of what's going on. Then we've got Tokyo CPI numbers. out of the CPI numbers, Tokyo is the main number um unemployment figures, retail sales, there's a bunch of data here right, and then a bunch of hours later the BOJ is making a decision right, so that could have a bit of an influence as we go forward, let's just play that out as we uh go into Friday and uh the main thing for the BOJ, I mean they used to always be pretty drunk uh on the sake for their press conference but they're a bit more uh user-friendly these days so we'll see what happens there and then during uh Friday we've got a bunch of numbers out of the EU right German numbers are the main numbers, doesn't mean we we can't get something moving here on unemployment and the CPI numbers but they have to be seriously messed up numbers right to get it moving okay and you got the EU CPI there so that's pretty much where it is, there are pockets of opportunities where we are going to see some things moving around. I think it's going to be more on the crosses than anything, okay? And that's how I see it playing out. There's no need to rush, right? I'll be sort of sitting back at this thing I'll definitely be going through my Aussie crosses and sort of tweaking around what's going on, which ones I should be looking at. And there's plenty of time to trade this week The good thing is these meetings slow the market down a little bit. so having a good look, give yourself time to do your analysis But as you see, I mean, I don't go through, right? People ask me all the time. I do generally go through, like after Tuesday, I will be tuning everything up. But on the crosses, I don't go and do the crosses unless there's an opportunity where the crosses are going to give me something good, right? Or if I see a signal, I will go and investigate and then start to do my crosses, right as in my trend lines now that doesn't necessarily mean you guys have to do that because you can actually keep up to speed a bit more it's just i've been doing this so long i've got a bit of a process and it doesn't include me going through every chart looking for the best trading opportunity all right so that's how i see it playing out guys there's five central banks there's good data in between uh there's no need to rush the markets keep an eye on the interest rate tracker, keep an eye. And most of these central banks, as I said, we know what the outcome is. So don't get all excited about hike rates, rate hikes, I should say, or no change of rates because the two biggest central banks, the two biggest zones are pretty much on hold. So there's not going to be any changes there. BOJ is on hold as well. And then you've got all little bits and pieces in between okay any questions probably start to use that uh hand in the air so we don't get too many all at once um no questions on that guys i mean it has been a bit of a run through if anything as we come into this session right um you can sort of see there's a bit of as i said the dollar we're seeing uh um a short dollar squeeze higher right so the market looks short us dollars it is starting to squeeze higher it's impacting this is actually good to see right the dollar index moving and euros moving the same way these two are one of the same right obviously the euro being 58% of the basket so is it going to impact the aussie like aussie and kiwi will not remain oblivious to this if if this is a decent squeeze well then we will see aussie and kiwi squeeze late but i wouldn't be sitting there long aussie um against the dollar right this is where you would start to almost go in and think well aussie's holding up and kiwi's holding up euro and sterling are going down so maybe that's where the action is so the let the calendar also guide your you know where your sort of attention is because this is actually where things are so you come into tuesday today um got a couple of bits and pieces are these going to move the market not really not at all right the consumer confidence numbers may have an inkling but not the unemployment survey, not with the data coming out on Friday. And this is like today being Tuesday. It's the US numbers that are going to be the main part of it, right? The S&P Case-Shiller number, that was probably one of the most respected housing numbers previously in years gone by. US consumer confidence. You can be sure as hell that the news service has been starved of news. so they will jump up and down all over this stuff right and make a bit of noise just to try and get people to read their articles because other than that there's not a lot going on okay the only thing i sort of suspect i looked at was some of this stuff right you want Anthropic obviously one of the biggest or the biggest um like steep losses right this is what the market hasn't experienced yet losses in the ai sort of sector right so will that have a big impact on the equity markets? Oh yeah, it will. Massively, right? This is massively overdone. So Nasdaq's, look at that, it's almost up 15, 16% on the year. And the rest of them as well, the Russell, S&P Mini, they're all up. They can do with a decent belting. All right. So for me, I'm sort of sitting back waiting for tomorrow, waiting for the Australasian numbers, see how it pans out. We've got the first of the central banks tomorrow. So really, unless you're trading the dollar or you're a little bit desperate, I will be waiting for Wednesday, and that's when we start to buckle up. All right. That's a bit of a good summary for me. Any specific questions there, guys or girls? Yeah, someone's left a message in the chat there for you. Oh, Stephen, you're a good man. There we go. Shelley, yes, once news is released, how often do you see the price get faded back to the pre-news price? So, Shelley, it really depends on the level of variance in the numbers. Actually, there's two things. Level of variance in the numbers would be one and where the technical levels are. So, like these sort of markets here where there's a big sort of gap between where support and resistance is, it can take a bit more time. If you've got resistance above the market, well, then, unless the numbers are really strong, it will generally fade back to the price, okay? So an overall direction. If it's in the direction of where things are going, you might see a bit more of an extended move. If it's against the direction, it will fade back pretty quickly, okay, especially if it's only a level two sort of number. Yeah. We'll get you an audio device soon enough there, Shelley. Any other questions there, guys? Just one from me. I was just wanting to know, with that economic calendar, Are the times on there Sydney time or do they reflect where we are? Yeah, they should be geodynamic, so it should pick up where you are. Okay. Are you getting Sydney times or? Yeah, I was just curious whether it was, like, based on where you are or where we are or? Yeah, this is, sorry, this is just on my timeframe. So the calendar is rigged up to be geodynamic, so it should pick up your time zone of your computer and then adjust the times accordingly. Cool. Thank you. If it doesn't, any of you guys let me know and I'll make sure it gets rectified. Now, I guess, I mean, there's not a lot going on just at the moment, so there's no need for a lot of questions. I think this time zone is going to help everyone, right? It gives everyone time to go to work, come back, tune in. Even if you miss it, you can actually quickly jump on and see what's going on because, you know, the start of the European session is a, the most of the volume in the global markets is during the UK European session, right? That's the North American market is the focal point for global markets, but all the volume is in the UK. So it gives us a good chance to really get into some good opportunities here and really assess where the flow of cash is going, right? And just, I mean, just looking at this Swiss, I really like, this is a short squeeze and it could end up up here. I mean, it could fade back to where it was. Until the numbers come out, it will keep squeezing. So when you see it, right, it will go where the pain is in the market. So if the market's sitting there short US dollars and long Swiss, it'll just keep going up. It won't go up like aggressively. It'll go up like this sort of thing here, right? It takes like, say, 12 or 14 hours. It's gone up like 20 points. So people think, oh, that's it. That's it. We've hit the top, right? And you think, oh, there you go. And then another 12 hours, it's another 20 points higher. Another 12 hours, it's another 20 points higher. It's a slow burn. That's what a squeeze is, right? Until it gets to the end and then you see that big spike, then you know it's done. So we're seeing a bit of that on obviously Euro and dollar Swiss. That actually has got a bit more structure than the Swiss one. So that sort of stands a bit more logically as a level that we can use, right? If you're looking to get short, this makes a bit more sense because you've got a trend line here which is going to offer you resistance, and the bull bear pivot line's going down as well. But so you can see, good time after this, if you haven't already done so, redraw your trend lines. This is the start of the week. Let's see how it goes from here. A couple of other messages there, Brad. Oh, my God. You're my personal assistant, Stephen. I love it. Yeah. Yeah, Chris is saying the dollar Swiss has a daily trend line up higher, good man. Uh, Chris, let me just have a look at that. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, you can draw that you can draw that, that one to here, let me just be letting go of the thing. Sorry guys, let me just get on that, a bit pedantic. Well, that's a fair bit high there, Chris but I like your thinking, and there is 83.70, 100 points away, but that's, that is uh a real level. Uh, Kevin, wow, you've made such awesome improvements to the TPT site, looks amazing. Thanks, Kevin. Yeah, yeah that'd be uh, I'm pretty stoked to be honest, uh, where the site is, it's, it's got a lot of everything that you need, right? So you can actually sort of switch around find out what's going on if you've got any uh things you can't see, well let us know. All right, okay guys, well that's a bit of a wrap for me. That was a good uh quick run through. Don't forget same time Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursdays, I'll be back here looking at the markets and trying to make odds and ends of it, right? Especially coming out of that Asian session, you can usually see where things are going very clearly and there's always a lot of data coming out of the UK that we can jump on, especially the EU as well. All right, guys, thanks for joining me. Brad, did you say that you're going to be doing this exactly the same thing every day? We are. I'll be on here at 6 o'clock, 7am London. More just to sort of just have a look at the markets, see what's going on, answer your questions. It's more Q&A around, hey, what do you think about going long Sterling today? What do you think of those numbers? It's more like a bit of a discussion. If there's nothing going on, we won't be talking about like just nothing, okay? The sessions will be shorter, but if there is a lot going on, then let's really piece it together. Beautiful. Awesome. Very good. That's a good idea. Awesome, guys. Super critical, Kevin. Exactly like the way you like it. Thank you, mate. all right guys good one have a good evening good day