US Midterms 2026: This isn't just a Midterm, it's America’s political stress test

This is America, and this is a country where political polarization is deepening, where the political power struggle between the executive and legislative branches is intensifying, and where Americans are feeling the pinch from a growing affordability crisis. So how were these elections different, and what does it mean for America's future? Let's take a closer look with Alex Marquardt in our Washington studio. Thank you, John. Americans are heading into these midterm elections under more strain than at any time almost in recent memory. Unprecedented polarization, a war, a trade fight and a country that is struggling to pay its bills. And it's about more than just which party controls Congress next year. It's about how much also power Donald Trump holds for his final two years in office and who, if anyone, keeps that power in check. History is being erased. Our rights are being taken away. Gas prices are up. Food prices are up. And the economy is just in a mess. A lot of us that did vote for Trump are regretting it. We thought he was going to do things differently. And it has not been to our favor. It's not about Democrat. It's not about Republican. It's about what they can do for the people. And that's what I want. What can you do for the people? Even if it was a Republican, if they're willing to go out there and be for the people, then let's vote Republican. Like a really existential election. And we need to send a message that the American people are not okay with what's going on. And I know we live kind of cushy here in America compared to a lot of countries elsewhere. But yeah, it's getting a little difficult to Put gas in the tank. What's important to me is to hope that it'll make a difference. I'm not sure I can feel real hopeful about that. Let's dig into this with our guests. Today we are joined by Celinda Lake. She is a Democratic political strategist and a pollster for Abdel El-Sayed's campaign in Michigan. We also have Doug High. He is a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee. Doug, Celinda, thank you both for being with me. As we know, one of the main themes of any midterm is that voters take things out on the party in power and the party out of power, In this case, the Democrats. might have better luck, that it's a referendum on the president. But Celinda, do you feel that this these midterms are different than we've seen in recent memory? They're different in two ways. One way they're different. The feeling about the president is lower than we've ever had before since we've had polling data. But the feelings about the Democrats are net negative, too, which is very different from, say, 2018 when Democrats were positively perceived. So you've got a lot of voters who say, I'm going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something. How do you feel this is different, Doug? Yeah, in so many ways, it reminds me of 2006. Unpopular president, though this one's more unpopular than Bush was. Fighting a war overseas, the voters. Didn't ask for, not a great economy, but it's still much harder this time than in 2006 to identify those races where you're like, this is in the bank, that one's in the bank. After North Carolina and in the Senate race in North Carolina, it gets a lot harder. Like, I think the Democrats are going to take Ohio after that. I have no idea. I definitely do want to dig into some of these races, especially where the numbers look like they're going in one direction or the next and whether we can trust those. But I want to ask you, Celinda, about Some other numbers. Gallup is just out with a new poll saying that the economy is the most important issue. That's not really a surprise. 87% of voters. But what is interesting is that that is significantly higher than back in 2018. Those were the midterms during Donald Trump's first term. So is this election very much about... The James Carville adage of it's the economy, stupid. Well, it's cost, stupid, and it's cost and corruption because people think that a rigged political system is generating a rigged economic system for middle class and working people. And absolutely their backs are to the wall. The other thing that's really unique, 60% of voters think we're not done yet. It's going to get worse before it gets better. That's why they're going to vote for change. Yeah, big questions about... What the next Congress can actually do to improve the economy when so much is beyond their control. And Doug, you said that Republicans need to make the case for why continuing Donald Trump's agenda is in the country's best interest. But to Celinda's point, we now have approval ratings in the low 30s, historically low. So why isn't the tactic for Republicans distancing yourself from him rather than making his case? So I think it's an impossible thing to do. It's difficult to do in any situation. 2006, I worked a Senate campaign where whatever smart policy proposal we would put out that day, our opponent would say, Michael Steele and George Bush, that's all we needed to do. It's that much harder when you're talking about Donald Trump, especially because if you separate yourself from Donald Trump, will Donald Trump respond or not, right? George Bush's team would say, do what you got to do, we understand. Donald Trump doesn't really give a lot of grace like that. And the other problem, I think, is Republicans, because Trump takes Republicans off message so much, whether it's about ballrooms or arches or people's rear ends or whatever else it may be, it makes it that much harder for, say, Ashley Hinson in Iowa to focus on, here's what I voted on to lower costs, and here's what I'm going to do for the next two years. Yeah, Donald Trump keeps showing up in places that, frankly, if you strap the polygraph I don't know. I'll tell you that they don't want him there. I'm thinking about his trips to Kansas and to Iowa this weekend, which are going to be very, very tight. In terms of the Democratic message, Celinda, how do you think that these top Democratic candidates who are vying in these very tough races have balanced their message of what they would actually like to do, their actual policy proposals, versus just bashing Trump and Republicans? They need to balance it because the party's message is still weak, and that's one of the things we've got to get fixed by 2028. But I think Abdul, who you mentioned, is a great example. He's very clear. He says money out of politics, money in your pockets, and health care for all. And that's a nine-second soundbite that he just repeats and repeats and repeats. And now real people can volunteer back. I know what this guy stands for. I know what he's going to move on. Yeah, it is rather astonishing when people try to ask him about Israel, Iran, foreign policy issues. He always brings it back to the kitchen table issues. Their lives. Real people's lives. All right, well, let's take a little bit of a listen to what voters have to say. Because days ahead of these midterm elections, many Americans are. Complaining about the state of the economy. And in poll after poll, Donald Trump's approval rating is at an all-time low. Our John Hendren has asked voters in Phoenix, Arizona, about what's on their minds. Midterm elections are always a referendum on the president and the party in power. But this one's different. Inflation is up. Gas is way up. Incomes are down. The U.S. is locked in a stubborn war with Iran. And voters are unhappy. Every little thing seems to cost more. $60 for a day at the state fair? Really? The price of admission is just the beginning. For American families, the bills keep coming after the carnival ends. The vacations are gone. This is a luxury for us to be able to come to the fair this year. Americans have ridden an economic roller coaster this year over an election landscape full of unexpected twists and turns. Job market is terrible right now. Everyone says they're hiring, but then you can't get a job anywhere. At the Arizona State Fair and elsewhere, voters are linking their sliding financial fortunes with their displeasure over the president's rising personal wealth. The economy, of course, is a huge, huge portion of it, but I think we cannot get down to the economy until the corruption part of things are taken care of. President Donald Trump's approval has bobbed with the fate of the Iran war and the economy and just before midterms sunk to its lowest point. America is currently in the wrong direction, so I'm excited about these elections because I'm going to vote blue all up and down the ballot. Also, I'm concerned about our standing in the world. We've always been recognized as world leaders, but nobody respects Trump anymore. But some Trump supporters say he'll weather the electoral storm, even if his party doesn't take home the prize on November 3rd. I think he's done a lot of good things, you know, speaking of Trump. And, uh... If he was on the ballot, I'd vote for him again. Here in Arizona and elsewhere, voters clearly want to check on Donald Trump's policies. But most congressional seats are fairly safe due to gerrymandering and the leanings of each state. So in any election, very few congressional seats are really in play. This one could test that, with Democrats reaching into territory previously safely Republican. Of course, we won't know until after the election how different these midterms really are. So, Doug, when you look at Republicans closing arguments in these final days in the face of this anger that we just heard over rising costs, do you think that they have, broadly speaking, landed on a message of why they should stay in power? No, they haven't. That's a big part of their challenge. I was watching one ad this morning from a veteran Republican whose ad was about Nancy Pelosi. And I thought, well, this is sort of the wrong cycle to be talking about her. She's retiring anyway. It's the vilifying Democrats, but it's still the wrong Democrats, the older Democrats. It's the wrong Democrat. And it's not going to voters and reassuring them on what they need to be reassured on. And it's why I think we could have a pretty big night for Democrats on the House side, for sure. And they don't need a big one to have a good one just to take back the House. The Senate is so campaign state and candidate specific. It's a much harder read. Speaking of those Senate races, if you were advising some of these Republicans in tight races, Mike Rogers in Michigan, Roger Marshall in Kansas, Dan Sullivan in Alaska, what would you be telling them to say this weekend? Well, first, I'd say focus on those issues that voters are telling you that they care about. That is what things cost first and foremost, energy, health care, the grocery store, restaurants. All of that, the big-ticket items that people aren't spending money on because they're too expensive, a refrigerator or a car where families are making very real economic decisions. You have to address to them what you're going to do to solve those problems. But if the message, Celinda, from Democrats is put us back in power and we will help alleviate some of this pain, let's assume, for argument's sake, Democrats have the best night ever and they manage to take back both chambers of Congress. What could they actually do? To work on the affordability issue and cost of living. Well, they can do two things. They can pass bills and then let Donald Trump veto them. And we'll really win in 2028. So we can show what we stand for. It is really important that we don't accept we can't do anything. And secondly, I think we can make sure that we don't get too distracted by impeachment in hearings and stay focused on real people's lives. What's the corruption that affects real people's lives? Stop the stock trading on the floor and say, even if the Congress won't adopt it, we're adopting it as Democrats. You're not in the Democratic caucus. If you trade on the floor, we forbid you to do that. How much of a division do you think that is in the Democratic Party in terms of how much Democrats in the incoming Congress should launch these investigations, should work on impeachment versus just... Getting to the work of delivering for the American people. I think it's a big difference between the people that are in incumbents' establishment who's returning who want to do the hearings and the new guys who have been and gals who have been running and hearing what you're hearing and they know, get on with people's lives. I mean, we were talking about the Epstein files in one of our focus groups and one woman said, I hate the Epstein files, I hate what was done to young girls, but when does it get to be about my family's life for a change? Do you think Democrats, if they are able to pass a bunch of legislation, are going to expect a lot more vetoes than we've possibly historically seen from Donald Trump? Yes, yes, of course, because Donald Trump says it's his way or the highway. Well, we're going to set up a real record for 2028, and we're going to have record gains. I think the other thing that's not getting enough attention, we're going to win a lot of governorships. So we're going to show how Democrats govern in places like Iowa and Minnesota. We're going to show what the Democratic agenda and the Democratic record can be. Do you think it would be helpful, Doug, to Republicans if Democrats did decide to launch these investigations and impeachment proceedings? I don't know. It certainly could provide some political points, but I think there's the broader issue of — and this is going to be an issue for both parties in the next Congress — how do you keep the lights on? When I worked in House Republican leadership, we had the House, but enough of our members thought we should act like we have the House and the Senate and jam President Obama. We acted like we had more power than we did, and it fell in our faces every day. Hakeem Jeffries is not Nancy Pelosi, and he could be dealing with that same question. How much do you need to get in order to keep the lights on, keep the government open? And could we have not just a six-day shutdown? But a six-week or longer shutdown, that becomes a very real political problem for the president but also for the speaker. Everyone agrees that Donald Trump is a unique figure in American history and certainly has unique power over his party. How much do you think he will actually be a lame duck in these final two years? And how would that change the behavior of Republican lawmakers? I hate the term lame duck for Donald Trump because in this way so many people treat him like every other president who's come before. And the reality is, let's put it in the campaign context of 2028. If you're nominee J.D. Vance and you get asked the Kamala Harris question, how are you going to answer that? Knowing that Donald could be live tweeting that you were always a disloyal loser or whatever. Or that could be any of the candidates in a debate. And if I'm President-elect Vance or President-elect Newsom or whoever it may be on the Democratic side, when Donald Trump is truly a lame duck president, I'm going to want somebody standing next to him at 11.59 a.m. on January 20th, 2029, when he still has the full power of the presidency. And, of course, that goes for Republican lawmakers as well, because he will still have that very powerful megaphone. Absolutely. Yeah. So, Linda, Trump bucked a trend when we go back to 2018 in terms of where we started this conversation about the party in power facing strong headwinds. Republicans actually picked up Senate seats in those midterms in Trump's first term. What are some surprises you think that could be lying in wait for us on Tuesday? Well, one of the things is, as you mentioned, Senate seats have enough of their own money, they can create their own dynamics. And really, these races are like whack-a-mole. This one's up, this one's down. New surprises every day. But I think Kansas, some of the surprises are in the making already. Kansas is a big surprise. And I think Marshall is in real, real trouble. There's so much polling out there, it's not a surprise if Tallarico wins, but If we think a year ago, would we have been saying that Telerico's going to win? And then if you had said to me that you're going to be able to elect a progressive Muslim fighter for people in Michigan, I would have said, wow, that's a tough hill. And I hope we're going to reach the pinnacle. Yeah, two of these extremely surprising races in terms of how close they are. Kansas, you mentioned, and of course Iowa. And the big news in the past 24 hours was that Trump decided to cancel his trip out there this weekend. And then after snapping at reporters yesterday, suddenly these trips are back on. He pushed it by a day, but he's going to have these rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. What do you make of this back and forth? They never should have been canceled to begin with because the reality is we know what Donald Trump would have been doing tomorrow if he was not at a rally. He would be at Mar-a-Lago playing golf. And if Republicans lose the House and the Senate, that would be as damning for Trump politically and would cause Republicans to turn against him in a way we haven't seen since January 6th. So, doing these is the right thing, whether they help or not. They certainly helped Trump to show that I'm out there trying to do the things to get my people over the line. I obviously have to take advantage of having a pollster on set to ask about this extraordinary poll. You kind of just referenced this, but there is a new Washington Post poll out today for Kansas that has an extraordinary gap between Hamilton and Marshall. The Democrat, Adam Hamilton, is up by nine. Do you see that as an outlier or reality? I think it's representative of one of the Republicans' biggest problems, which is we had uniquely good recruitment. They had uniquely problematic recruitment. You can't sue 700 women who just gave birth to a baby or had a gynecological problem for debt collection and jail people for $120 and expect to be sent back to the Senate. How do you see that race playing out in Kansas? I don't know how it plays out, but we saw an outlier poll in Iowa just two years ago that caused a lot of damage to the whole polling industry. It's not going to be a nine-point race. A lot of Republicans just don't want to answer calls from pollsters, as you probably know better than I. So if this is a one- or two-point race, we're going to be looking at that Washington Post poll and say, where did you get it wrong? And certainly, you know, the polling that we've seen In the past, including in Michigan, in the primary between Al-Sayed and Haley Stevens, seemed to have been quite off. So what are you looking at now in terms of Michigan? I want to take advantage of the fact that you are helping the Abdel Al-Sayed campaign. The polling around that has been extraordinarily close. Yeah, and I think the race is going to be really close. What we're looking at is turnout, and the single biggest thing we need, we need every young person, every African American, and every Democrat to turn out to vote. In terms of Alaska, there's also been a lot of news in the past few days. That is a surprisingly close race as well. That's a place that Republicans did not expect to be competing. And now we have allegations uncovered by The New York Times that the campaign of Mary Peltola, the Democrat, actually encouraged others to run, including Dan J. Sullivan, who is not the incumbent senator. Well, it could turn into a mess, couldn't it, Doug? It is a mess. And to me, it's sort of reminiscent of the Ramaswamy campaign. For the past week, he has not been able to talk about what he wants to talk about because of his ad. Peltola is going to spend the next four days having to talk about this, deny, deflect and so forth instead of being on the offense that she should be. She can still win, but her job has just gotten a lot harder because of her own people and what she knew and when she knew it. I know that, please, to that, though. This is, it's different in Alaska. We do a lot of races in Alaska. We're doing some independent expenditures for Mary. Thank you very much. The other thing that's not being told is the Republicans put a Democrat on the ballot who is in jail in New Jersey for election fraud. So I think the voters in Alaska can sort this out. And it might be tricky, it could be sketchy, some might even say slimy, but does it appear illegal? It's definitely not illegal. It's been going on in Alaska for a long time. In fact, Dan Sullivan won his first race with another Dan Sullivan on the ballot. So it's definitely not illegal. And states are in control of their own elections. But I think with ranked choice voting... These strategies are played out more. Alaskans are very used to it. I trust Alaskans to make the decision. Do you, I mean, I know we're a long way from Alaska here, but Doug, do you think, how much do you think this is landing with Alaska voters? Well, a lot of Alaska voters have already voted, right? Mail-in voting is really important there. But I think there's more of a national issue to this, which is if Democrats constantly warn, and I often agree with them, that you don't want Donald Trump to have a loaded gun, By God, don't give him another bullet. In terms of the surprises that we could see in the coming days, He is. DOJ has already started an investigation into what happened in Alaska. So what are you expecting from the Trump administration, in Alaska specifically? I'm expecting them to mess around with vote-by-mail, and they're already trying. And the Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, has come out against this because there's a lot of mail delivered from rural Alaskan indigenous areas that has been slowed up now because of the way that it's delivered in winter, because it's dead winter there. I expect them. To try to emphasize this, but Alaska is a small town. Alaska is a place where you can really talk to your voters. And I think Alaskans know what to do. They know how to vote. They've already voted. They like Mary Peltola, and they're going to vote for change. And they don't like that Dan Sullivan made deals to benefit himself for fishing trawlers. This is going to be a lot more about fish than about names on the ballot. And then about affordability and some of the other. Well, fish is affordability and gas is affordability. Yeah, you're absolutely right. I've covered a lot of elections from the angle of interference and primarily from foreign interference. And of course, we've seen meddling and information campaigns and that kind of thing. But Democrats and there's some reporting to this, Doug, concerns about, again, what the Trump administration may do, what the what the FBI could do. Do you think those fears are overblown? I don't know yet, but clearly the fact that Trump leaned in on this before we knew any of the shenanigans in Alaska tells us that they're going to be pretty forward-leaning. Whether that has an impact on individual races or people's right to vote, I just don't think we know. Yeah, no, I mean, certainly, you know, and in speaking to Hispanic voters in Texas, for example, I and others have been told that there are a lot of Hispanic voters who are afraid to go out to the polling stations because of the fear that ICE and other federal I think that also Democrats feel very strongly every eligible person needs to vote and every vote needs to be counted. And we're going to fight to the death for that. All right. So let's fast forward to Tuesday night. You're a pollster. You're a data person. You're going to be looking deep, deep, deep in the weeds in terms of the numbers. What are you going to be watching most closely? What do you advise us to be watching? I think that turnout. Watch. Did Trump really rally the Republicans? Did the Democrats come out in record numbers? Young people who are still lagging behind in their turnout and aren't, we're not investing enough money in them. Did they turn out to vote? And then a second thing I think we need to look at is did women support Democrats more than men supported Republicans? There is going to be a gender gap and whose side is going to win out on that? What about the states? Oh, the states. Well, it's the states. I don't think there are any surprises, except maybe the candidates with the independent candidates, the states with the independent candidates, Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska. Those independent candidates could come within a couple of points or they could win. And that's going to be a really interesting strategy to see. Doug, what are you going to be watching out for? Yeah, I start with the two states that close earliest, which are Indiana and Kentucky. There are a couple races there that if Democrats, I don't think they won them, but if they come in in suburban Lexington or suburban Indianapolis within five points, that's going to be a flashing red light. And then you get down to North Carolina. Republicans are going to lose one seat for sure. If that number's two or three. We're going to have problems. Those are the bellwethers that you're looking at? Yeah, because those are early states, right? There are no bellwethers in California. They just closed too late. So in terms of those states that you mentioned, none of which have significant Senate races, what could those places tell you about which way the Senate's going to go, whether Democrats can take it back? Well, the Senate race is gone in North Carolina, but it tells us that the wave of Democratic turnout is real. And that tells us what happens in other states as well, right? We're not talking about North Carolina and Georgia as Senate races. It's not something anybody would have said a year ago. I want to ask you guys about another fun piece of news to end on, in terms of why this is a different set of midterm elections. We heard that Pope Leo is the first pope, and obviously he's the first American pope, actually cast his mail-in ballot in Illinois. He's originally from Chicago. What did you make of that? I thought it was wonderful and the Catholic vote is actually a very important block of vote and it is a block that has not until now moved as democratic as some of the other blocks. I thought it would also be very reassuring to Latino voters because he said everyone needs to vote. Only about 30 seconds, Doug. As a Catholic, I love it. I'm thrilled. And I hope, you know, eventually in his papacy, he gets to have a parade in Chicago for his White Sox, just not against my Yankees. I mean, I was looking at some of the things that Pope Leo has said, and, you know, he doesn't mention Trump by name, but it's clear on issue after issue, whether it's immigration or about the war, they are on different sides of these issues. So it's not hard to imagine how Pope Leo might have voted in In those Illinois races. But once you start getting the city council races and what ward he's in, that's where I have no idea. Absolutely. And he's a local, so he actually cares about those things and he might know those players. Doug High, former RNC communications director, and Celinda Lake, upholsterer for the Abdullah Syed campaign in Michigan. Thank you both very much. Thanks for having us. Appreciate it. And that's all from the team here in Washington. I want to hand it back to John Hendren and Al Jazeera's global headquarters in Doha. Remember, you can always catch the latest edition of This is America Monday through Friday at 1830 GMT or 1130 a.m. If you're here in Arizona. Until then, from the whole gang in Phoenix. Bye for now.