College Football Long Shots With Playoff Betting Value

I was looking at some schedules earlier today, and I saw that UCLA and Iowa, like if you look at the remainder of their schedules, UCLA is undefeated. I don't see two losses in there. Maybe they play USC last game of the season, but they don't play any other ranked team. They avoid pretty much everybody. Iowa has one loss to Ohio State, and they've got a very, very advantageous schedule. Schedule. And. You know, I know all these different sports books and betting places are different, but if you can get buyouts on things, I know this, to win a national championship, Tim, you've got to make the playoff. That's a fact, yes. You cannot win it if you don't get in. And I look at some of these odds, like, you have Oregon, who's up against it, who's plus 6,500. Florida is like plus 5,000. You have to go all the way down. You're getting UCLA at plus $8,000 and Iowa at plus $10,000, which I don't think that they can win it. But if you can get a sportsbook that can get you a buyout, that they do the buyouts, and you get in there, and let's say they win a game, like, hey, man, if you're going to give me $2,500 on that, like, I'm taking it. I'm running for the hills. Like, I would feel great about that more than taking a team like Oregon, which I'm like, if they lose again, they're probably done. No, it's, it's a great point. And that's the beauty of the chaos. You know, you mentioned Notre Dame, you know, we talked about it. That's a panoramic picture of Notre Dame stadium right there. I'm a Notre Dame fan and I truly believe if they lose to Miami, they're in a lot of trouble. There's a lot of teams in that log jam. And I think they have to take care of business against Miami. If the mantra of Marcus Freeman is going to be leave, no doubt, but he can't leave doubt again. Right? So they have to go 11 and one in my opinion, to feel comfortable. Beating Miami and then losing to, let's say, SMU, I still think they'd be okay, but that Miami game is going to be critical in a couple weeks, so they've got to figure some stuff out. But to your point about Iowa and UCLA, yeah, UCLA, man, they've got Michigan State this weekend where they're a two-touchdown favorite. They've got Nevada next week. That game against Minnesota, be careful in that one. That's going to be funky. P.J. Fleck will probably be putting on some sort of war paint and smearing blood on his face and doing all his crazy stuff. That game seems potentially as a tricky one. What does Michigan look like with Tommy Carr? They have to go to the big house, and then, of course, they wrap up the season, as you alluded to, against USC. So it's manageable, but not impossible, and they should be undefeated going into the month of November when those first playoff rankings are revealed. So, yeah, there's pathways there, and to your point about the long-shot odds, I haven't bet this, but a buddy of mine did. He bet Houston 180 to 1. to win the college football playoff. Does he believe they'll win it? No. But to your point, there are opportunities to get off of bets, especially, let's say Houston runs the table. It starts this weekend against Utah, road underdog of six and a half points. But if they run the table, is there a reality where Houston at 12-1 with their lone loss to Texas Tech on the road, and maybe they avenge that loss in the Big 12 championship, could they get a bye? I think it's... Not out of the realm of possibility. Texas Tech got a bye a year ago. So there's so much to play out. And that's where, yeah, you look at these odds and you can talk yourself into a lot of things. You know, look, I talked myself into Lincoln-Keenholz to win the Heisman in the preseason. Felt good for about two weeks. And then that fell apart. You know, we talk ourselves into these long shots and then they don't come to fruition. But that's the beauty of doing what we do is talking about these things, thinking about scenarios. And the beauty is. Every Friday and Saturday night, they lace it up, and we see upsets, and then it changes our perspective of everything. So, you know, come Sunday, we're probably going to have a lot of different views on what this college football landscape is going to look like.