How big Democrat wins in the midterms could impact Trump — and his party

We're going to win big, Republican majorities in the House and the Senate. That's what Donald Trump has been saying, but the polls suggest his party is likely facing major losses in the midterms. For the last two years, Republicans have controlled everything in Washington. But with the Democrats expected to take the House, maybe even the Senate, there could be a huge shift in the balance of power. The Democrats have made big promises to rein Trump in. But even with potential majorities, that won't be easy. They'll have the ability to say no on some things. My guess is Trump will simply ignore them. But it will cause him problems. Donald Trump will still be in the driver's seat. And Democrats are going to have to be clever. A big challenge will be the Democrats' promise to go after Trump's trade policies. Trump policies, like the tariffs, have increased costs on everyday Americans. He's the toughest on that well-known evil empire, Canada. These are the people who gave us Martin Short and maple syrup. If they do win, Democrats have promised legislation to restore congressional oversight of trade, but a democratic victory is unlikely to ease the trade war with Canada on its own. Canada will have an ally. And that's because the US system is built on checks and balances. So for example, even if a bill passes the House of Representatives and the Senate, it can still be vetoed by the president. And overriding a presidential veto takes a two-thirds majority in both chambers. Even though the Democrats might win majorities in both, they're not expected to win that big. If they had some Republican support, and that seems unlikely, then they could override presidential vetoes, but probably no legislation would get passed with the split government. Trump could also find other ways to get things done. This is official, effective. Like signing even more executive orders and proclamations, the way he imposed the tariffs on Canada in the first place. Those can be challenged in federal court, but that takes time. And for Congress to override them, that again takes the same nearly impossible-to-get two-thirds majority in both chambers. So many of his executive orders are outside the Constitution. And they're asserting powers that the Constitution does not give to him. And he does it anyway. But even if passing legislation or undoing Trump's orders would be nearly impossible, the Democrats could make Trump's life difficult in lots of other ways. If we don't win the midterms, they'll find a reason to impeach me. Democratic leaders aren't talking much about a Trump impeachment, but they are promising a wide range of investigations. Beginning on day one in the new Congress, we're going to hold the crooks accountable. Think high-profile hearings on Capitol Hill with top Trump officials forced to testify, thousands of documents handed over, maybe even made public, Democrats having more power to shape the national conversation than they've had in years. Even just the House will have the subpoena power. Even just the House under Democratic control, there are some very fishy things that have gone on. They'll be talking a lot about corruption and where Donald Trump has overstepped. A win in the House would also give the Democrats more say over federal spending. Bills to fund the government require House approval. That could force Trump to negotiate or risk even more government shutdowns. And if the Democrats take the Senate too, less likely but possible, then it would be nearly impossible for Trump to get any judicial or cabinet nominees confirmed. Trump understands horse trading. The Democrats can say, fine, you can keep the tariffs, but we're going to take this away from you. So the midterms could give Democrats lots of new ways to frustrate Trump. Many of those frustrations, presidents can get around, though not all. But Trump is Trump. Experts say expect even more pushing the limits of executive power. As he loses his ability to influence Congress, you might get some real institutional battles and actions that are far outside the Constitution. There could also be battles in the Republican Party itself, because as soon as the midterms are over, it'll be all about 2028. If they lose badly, then it'll be a rebuke of Trump and Trumpism of what the Republican Party has been doing. I think that this election will wake up some Republicans, that that policy could hurt them again in 2028. That means the biggest impact from the midterms on Trump may come from his own party.