Gareth Soloway, President of Verified Investing, discusses the historic sell-off in tech stocks, potential buying opportunities, oil prices, and recession risks, along with his outlook on Bitcoin, gold, silver, and the stock market. *This video was recorded on October 31, 2026.
Watch Gareth’s previous interview with me here: • 5% Yields: 'Whole System Collapses', What ...
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Nothing in this video should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or assets. Investing always carries risks, including the potential loss of principal capital.
0:00 - Tech stocks plummet: What happens next? 0:55 - A market sell-off or a sector rotation? 3:39 - Is it time to buy tech stocks? 6:18 - Intel’s historic 30% collapse 9:20 - A "dead cat bounce" or a genuine market recovery? 10:25 - Oil prices exert pressure on the stock market 13:00 - The Federal Reserve (Fed) raises interest rates and the risk of recession 14:37 - Midterm elections and the market outlook 18:31 - Tech stocks that Gareth is buying 19:51 - CoreWeave’s debt issues 21:30 - Micron’s next major move 22:20 - Bitcoin’s plunge and price targets 26:09 - The next downside targets for gold prices 27:46 - Why Gareth is buying silver 29:32 - Government bond yields and the stock market outlook
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David Lin 338K subscribers Video Introduction
AI Generated·May contain errors
Happy Halloween, everybody.
I'm dressed up as the Grim Reaper today
because that's exactly how the market's been behaving,
killing your gains, especially if you've been in tech.
What an awful week it's been for tech.
Google just lost $500 billion over the last 48 hours of market cap,
went down 12% after hours trading in Thursday
after a disappointing earnings report.
Intel went down 30%.
NVIDIA down 5%.
AMD down 10%.
Reddit down double digits.
That's not really in the tech sector.
But still, Gareth Soloway is going
to help us explain exactly what's going on.
He's the president of Verified Investing,
and he's going to tell us whether or not this
spookiness is going to continue past Halloween,
or are we going to get a big bounce on Monday?
We'll find out.
Gareth, welcome back to the show.
Good to see you.
Hey, good to see the Grim Reaper here.
It certainly was that type of week, David. Thanks for having me back.
Thanks for coming. Yeah, you know,
it's important to note that not everything got killed, so to speak.
Look, gold went down, silver went down. We'll talk about that.
Bitcoin went down, probably following tech,
probably because of the Binance hack.
We can talk about that as well.
But I want to show my screen just for a minute here.
This is the S&P 500 heat map.
And, importantly, I want to highlight the distinction between
a broad market sell-off within the S&P and a rotation away from tech,
which appears to be what happened in the last couple of days,
because it wasn't everything that went down.
If you look at my screen here,
you can see that consumer defensives were pretty much in the green.
Staples went up. Energy, oil had a big up day on Friday.
Basic materials, utilities went up. Healthcare was a big gainer.
It was really just communications and tech that pulled down the index.
And so people commented, well,
The S&P is down only 2.5%.
Well, first of all, that's a pretty big deal for a one-day move.
But second, it didn't go down further
because most stocks within the S&P actually went up on the day.
It was just the biggest tech names dragged down the index.
So my first question to you is, Gareth, you've been talking about
a broad market defensive play for quite some time.
This tech sell-off, does this indicate to you
that the entire broad market is at risk
because we talk about tech pulling down the broad market?
Or is this an opportunity to rotate?
Into the defensives right now.
Yeah, I think that it's first of all, it's a great question.
And for me, you know, rotating into the defensive was something
to do a month or two ago when the AI trade and the saspocalypse
was kind of fading from the view, meaning that we had that big sell off
in the software names and then they kind of recovered.
I mean, if you looked at CrowdStrike,
if you looked at a lot of these other names, they really had
these monstrous bounces back while the AI trade was getting hot again.
And that was the time to rotate into the defensive line.
Like we talked about, like the Clorox's of the world, the Nike's.
I mean, think about this.
Nike gapped down on earnings
and literally has almost gone up every day since.
Incredible move to the upside on Nike.
Not because Nike's like the new amazing company, right?
It's still Nike.
But at the same time, it got too oversold
and there was too much money in the tech sector,
in the AI trade, in the software stocks, and money is rotating.
And that's really what you see here.
Remember that...
Hedge funds, hedge fund managers don't want
to take money out of the market and put it
in cash because they don't make anything.
They're two and 20, which is what they get paid, right?
2% fees, 20% of profits in cash.
They're not making anything.
So they always want to rotate until things get
so scary that they panic and pull it out
of the market.
But until then, the rotation trade is on.
But I will say this.
For me, being in the defensives,
I'm honestly rotating back into some of the beaten up names.
For instance, Oracle pulled back significantly after some good news
on Thursday, a big pop there.
Some of these other names out there as well are getting
to levels where they're actually very intriguing for a bounce.
So this is what I've been wondering, and I've been going over some
of the earnings reports of these big tech companies.
I looked at Meta, Tesla, Google reported this week,
and there's an underlying trend here.
These companies spent a lot on CapEx, probably more than what investors
were initially expecting, and they missed EPS by a wide margin.
So Google, for example, the initial consensus EPS was $3.01,
the reported was $2.12, and so they missed it by nearly 30%.
Now, companies miss EPS all the time.
But not by 30%, and not the entire sector seems
to be missing at the same quarter.
And it makes me wonder, okay, if it's just one company, maybe we can
get back into the company by the dip if it's a strong fundamental play.
But if it's the entire sector missing expectations because
of a similar story, it makes me wonder if it's safe to get back.
That's the first question that I have.
So I would say number one is we're entering a period
in the market where volatility is starting to spike.
We saw the VIX at one point on Friday in the mid-20s, right?
Anytime you're in the mid-20s, it's telling you that fear is starting
to be the pervasive emotion that people are trading off of,
which means the swings are going to be violent.
Having said that, I think if you're a shorter-term investor,
like you're buying for a bounce,
like I have the chart up of Google here.
I mean, I've isolated down.
There's a gap fill here.
You got pivot lows coming up
and you got this beautiful ascending trend line.
And yes, is there did their ad revenue business, the search business?
Is it suffering because of AI? Absolutely.
But it's still Google and you're getting
to levels where valuation is very, very attractive, at least.
In the short term, assuming you get some sort
of stabilization in this trade.
Same thing could be said for other names out there, too.
I mean, ServiceNow got absolutely annihilated.
I mean, look at the two-day drop on this thing.
I mean, this went down just for the last two days, 31%.
It's getting into levels where it was trading back in April of 2026,
April, May, June, July.
You got to look for these technical bounces
to come up as the fear takes over.
And one of the biggest trades I always make
is when everyone else is panicking, I buy, right?
The old adage is when there's blood
in the streets, that's when you step in.
When euphoria and greed are rampant, that's when you got to be selling.
And I think that's exactly the play right now.
So again, it's not to say I'm out of defensives.
I still have some of that exposure, but I'm slowly rotating back
into some of these beaten up names that are high quality names.
I've got to ask you about Intel.
Speaking of charts, this is one heck of a chart.
Look at Intel.
Yeah, this 28.6% plunge on Friday.
This is the worst single day for Intel since 1974, I read.
This is not a meme stock, okay?
People are like, well, I've seen this before.
Yeah, you've seen this in Dogecoin.
You haven't seen this in a blue chip tech stock, okay?
This is not a penny stock.
This is Intel.
Talking about Google going down double digits in a single day.
It doesn't happen every Tuesday or Friday.
Anyway, you look at this chart.
What's your first reaction?
What do you do?
So the first thing is I look at my trend lines, right?
And I have this trend line here going back to August of 2025,
connecting through the pivot
low in March of 30th of 2026, right?
And we are getting close.
Now, do I think Intel is eventually going lower?
Yeah, absolutely.
I do.
I think that it got hyped up basically not only on the AI trade,
but the fact that the
U.S. government was backing it,
which made everyone assume it would get special treatment.
That earnings report that we saw tells us,
wait a minute, they might get special treatment,
but it's not helping.
And therefore we're seeing the big, we saw the massive decline,
but will I be a buyer for a bounce 10, 20% bounce off of the $60 level?
That's what the charts are telling me to do.
Absolutely.
So again, short-term, this is more of a market.
Listen.
If you're a 20 year horizon, you could probably buy it as well.
If you're a shorter, like one to three year horizon,
I think Intel will eventually go
down.
If you're a short term like me, like one month,
it's getting close to great bounceable
opportunities.
So it's really about time frame.
Everyone has to decide what is your time frame
and then look to the charts to give us that
insight into it.
And again.
I mean, incredible selling in tech alone,
but then you look at silver and gold and
Bitcoin and everything getting rocked,
except for a few defensive names like you mentioned.
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Going into next week, I think everyone's wondering,
myself included, are we about to see
debt cap bounces or is this the buy opportunity of the last two years,
you think? How do you
reconcile that? Yes. So this is and by the way,
I mean, you know, just to look over and this is
answer your question is the S&P is still technically bullish.
And what I mean by that
is we've had these two trend lines that have kind of.
Kept the market in an uptrend up here
that one goes back to 2023 February.
This one goes back to the bull market high of 2022.
And you can see that the market has basically
been playing pinball off of these two trend lines.
As long as we hold the lower one, to me, that's a viable level.
And the S&P has potential upside to the high end,
which is just above 8000.
And what you said about the defensive names, I mean, listen.
We see the S&P performing better than the NASDAQ.
If you look at the equal weight, the S&P equal weight,
which is every company equal weighted,
which gives, again, the defensives better weighting,
it's actually had an incredible
rally off of the lows here.
So for me, the S&P remains bullish as long as we hold in this zone.
My one caveat, and this is kind
of the determining factor of if I'm going to
Believe that the markets can keep climbing
next week and we get that bounce.
It's all about oil.
And I know this sounds crazy, but oil tried to break out on Friday.
I mean, this was incredible.
Look at this wedge pattern.
During the day, we were above
this line looking like it was a wedge breakout,
which could have said $120 a barrel is on the table again.
And by the end of the day, look at the intraday.
All of a sudden, in the second half of the day,
around 1 o'clock in the afternoon,
sold off all the way down.
And we closed back below the level.
And the reason why oil is so important here is that oil
is now becoming the straw that breaks the camel's back.
When this war with Iran in the U.S. started, everyone assumed a week.
Then it was a month.
Then it was a quarter.
And now it's dragging to the point where
the midterms are next week and there's been no deal.
And the market is worrying, wait a minute, if the midterms pass,
does then Trump just decide to go military gangbusters
on Iran at that point with no elections for two years?
The key here is this.
If oil goes up more, it's already breaking the consumer.
It's now the AI trade that's starting to break.
CapEx starting to look weak.
If oil falls, this market will rip.
But you've got to get oil to fall to save the economy here.
Like how much are we talking about that matters?
I think you got to get oil back below $80 a barrel to matter.
All right.
Now, listen, will it help a little bit if we go back to 85 to 90?
Yes.
I mean, we're right now we're above 100.
Every little bit will help.
But sustainability to take the, you know,
basically think about it like this.
The oil trade has its foot on the throat
of the markets via the consumer, via the economy.
And we're talking about inflation, right?
I mean, diesel prices and being passed through.
Everything hinges.
On oil at this point, I didn't think it was that big
of a deal early in the year because I assumed like everyone else
that this was going to be a short lived war. It would be over.
The straits would be open. But when you have oil
at 100 plus dollars a barrel now since February of this year.
It is literally starting to drag down everything
and the markets are beginning to get a little
bit concerned.
So you've got to get oil down here.
A deal has to be done or something has
to be done to get that oil flowing and back to
$70, $70 to $80 a barrel is okay.
That can be a huge relief and get the market back on track.
Well, if oil doesn't come down and the Fed is stuck
in a position where they have to address this higher for a longer oil,
which makes inflation overall, CPI, headline CPI higher,
you know, they pretend they care only about core.
But really, they care about both, I think.
And at the same time, the tech sector potentially is seeing
a huge slowdown in growth because, like many people pointed out,
Elon Musk and Jensen Huang from NVIDIA included.
Debt financing is slowing down, capital is becoming scarce,
and these companies rely on debt financing to grow.
And so if we start to see more layoffs in the tech sector, while
at the same time, like you said, oil stays high, what does the Fed do?
Yeah, and that's that's what's going to be remarkable to watch here.
And I think the Fed is probably in a box right now that if oil still
around 100 or $90 a barrel in December, they're going to have to hike.
But one of the keys and this goes back to old school Wall Street again,
is that what's the cure for high oil prices?
High oil prices and if oil stays high long enough,
it's going to come in regardless because it's going
to wreck the economy and you're going to destroy demand.
And so one way or the other, oil's coming in.
But there's two scenarios here.
If oil stays high, the Fed is going to have to combat inflation.
But if they combat inflation by raising rates,
it's going to put more pressure on the economy,
which then inevitably brings oil down anyway.
For me, at least, it's oil will come down.
The question is, does it come down
because a deal is struck and oil flows again?
Or does it come down because the economy gets wrecked?
The second one is the one that we as investors have to worry about.
That kills the 8,000 plus level on the S&P,
as my bullish case, if it wrecks the economy.
Okay. I've been getting a lot of questions on my own channel,
people posting in the comments,
what happens to markets after the midterm election?
And it looks like according to
prediction markets, both Cauchy and, um, and,
uh, Polly market, we look, it looks like both
the house and the setup may be taken by the Democrats,
probably a blue sweep come next week.
Uh, we'll find out on November 3rd.
Uh, I just want to share with you this chart. So this is
the, uh, this is the Brazil ETF. Okay.
Brazil just had its own election.
And this is what happened when Bolsonaro was not elected.
It gapped down 20% in a single day.
I'm not saying this is going to happen
to the U.S. when the Democrats sweep the Congress,
but I'm just using this as an example
of how elections can move markets.
Again, not to say that's what's going
to happen to the S&P come November 4th,
but this is what happened in Brazil.
And so to go back to the original question,
how do you think midterms are going to impact the markets?
What do you think?
I actually think it's going to be almost
a non-event and I'll tell you this.
So what's interesting about the Brazilian elections is that
Kalshi had a high probability that Bolsonaro
was going to win that election.
And so the markets had favored and everyone had bought the market
on anticipation of that change in the president there.
And it didn't happen. It actually went the opposite way, as we know.
And so it really caught the markets off guard over there in Brazil.
Here in the U.S., we already see that the odds
are favoring the Democrats taking over.
In addition, it's basically going to be gridlock.
Right. And the markets historically don't mind gridlock
because nothing gets done, which means nothing.
And so I think that's the key.
I think the bigger question is once those midterms are over,
does the president have any incentive not to just go nuts
and go and let's say bomb Iran, you know,
maybe take over Karg Island, try to do something militarily
that in the near term could spike up oil significantly.
And I think I think that's my bigger concern, not who wins the House,
the Senate. That's not going to matter because honestly,
I don't think Trump cares deep down.
Um, whether or not the Republicans hold, he's still the president.
And I think the bigger thing is he wants
his legacy at the end of the day to be, he didn't
keep oil high for very long.
So he's either going to make a decision here to make a deal,
which I think would have happened
before, or there could be military action,
further military action in Iran.
And remember, even if oil spikes to 120.
For a month, if ultimately oil comes back to $50,
$60, $70 a barrel within a few months,
by the time the next elections come,
no one's going to remember that it was $120 for a month.
They're not going to care. And I think that's
the angle here that the president might think.
So I'm more focused on what happens with Iran after
the midterms than the midterms themselves.
I'm thinking maybe there's a scenario where
the economy just adjusts to $120 a barrel.
At some point.
I mean, once upon a time, oil was 30,
and then it was 60, and everyone thought 60 was
low, and now we're at 100.
So, I don't know.
What do you think?
I think I think it's possible, but I think there's
a whole different scenario here where you have 80 percent of the
U.S. public essentially feeling like they're already in a recession.
And if oil is if the new normal is one hundred
and twenty dollars a barrel, what are diesel prices,
which are already basically at all time highs at?
And then how does that filter through to inflation?
So you have people that already feel like they're in a recession
and then you you push inflation up even more at some point.
You know, it just breaks everything.
And so I think we're in a different scenario here where
the economy in the past, I mean,
I still remember in 2000,
I think it was 2008 when oil went to one hundred and forty six
dollars a barrel.
We're not.
By the way, that was just before we saw
the financial crisis that we saw.
But now you have a whole group of major amounts
of Americans that are already in a major pain
point on the economy, and it would be very hard to tolerate.
Going back to the S&P, so you said you're structurally, well,
the S&P is showing signs of being structurally bullish right now.
Given the tech sell-off, the route that we've seen in the last couple
of days to weeks, what are you doing exactly right now?
Yeah, so right now, with my bias still bullish on the S&P,
I've been really looking at beaten down names
that are looking for a relief rally.
So I've been nibbling on a lot of positions here.
Just to give you an idea, I picked up a little bit of Oracle here.
Oracle had a breakout on Wednesday on news,
went up to resistance, got rejected.
I picked it up on Friday as long as it holds this breakout trend line.
So I'm basically looking for some of these names
that everyone is kind of hating on.
Oh, they have a lot of debt.
They have this.
Like, for instance, another one,
and this is a smaller company, but like, you know,
you look at a stock like IonQ, which is a supercomputer one.
These are probably companies of the future,
regardless of what happens in the near term.
And it's into major technical support down here.
And so really starting to accumulate some of these names.
I haven't really stepped into the Microns yet.
Micron, to me, still has downside to go.
SanDisk had a big drop on Friday.
I still wouldn't touch this until at least $1,000.
But there are other names out there and even Google.
I've inched into Google down here, starting to accumulate little
by little because, again, high quality names.
Google's in the AI field,
but also has other avenues here, Waymo, et cetera.
I think these are the ones that you start to nibble
on for a relief rally that I think will come sooner than people think.
Well, speaking of beating down names and things that people hate,
people really hate CoreWeave right now.
Can we just talk about CoreWeave, and then I want to get into Micron,
then we'll talk about some other things before we close off.
But yeah, CoreWeave is another company with a lot of debt,
a lot of big, huge CapEx build-outs, and just highly levered.
They're dead after you reach 15% and 16% in bond yields.
So anyway, I'll let you talk about this.
Yeah, so CoreWeave did tag major support.
We got a bounce off of it.
You can see right here there was a gap fill,
and it was also a Fibonacci 886 retrace from this low to this high.
So it did get a bounce.
Now I'm watching, and I'm not in this right now,
but I'm watching very closely, does it hold this $51 level?
There are other names out there like CBRS,
which has been beaten down as a chip play as well,
that are starting to look interesting.
CoreWeave, I was in for the bounce.
I'm out now just because, again, this one, like you're saying,
is a little bit of a trickier scenario because of their debt load.
A lot of their debt is secured debt versus unsecured,
which makes a little bit of a difference.
But either way, this is kind of the poster child
for the don't be this company type scenario in this type of market.
So for me, I'm staying away from it until I get more clarity.
I think the key is in a market where people are scared,
best of breed is number one.
Like if you're going to pick up tech,
How do you not go with a Google or an Oracle, one of the bigger names,
versus taking more risk on something like CoreWeave?
Because you could probably get 15 next return
instead of maybe three, I guess.
That's the only reason you would take on more risk.
Yes, and you're right.
And then is that possible in CoreWeave?
Absolutely.
But you have to, for me, at least as a more seasoned investor,
I learned the hard way that more return
when the loss can be even greater too
is not always the best solution if you want to build wealth.
Micro.
Micron, can we just quickly talk about Micron?
We've talked about this on my show before.
You've actually perfectly called the top around June.
On my show, people can actually go back and watch that.
And then we haven't talked about it in quite a while.
What do you think about Micron right now?
I still think it's coming down.
I think, again, you have so many factories over the next year
to two years coming on line, including new Micron factories.
But China is a major player.
CXMT, we've talked about that before as well.
That, you know, listen, memory is not proprietary.
These chips, there was a shortage.
People got caught off guard, but now it's been a year plus
of this shortage and factories will be coming online.
And at some point, I honestly think and listen,
it doesn't mean I won't play it for a long on the way down.
But at some point, I think we're going back to four hundred
and sixty five dollars this area right back here.
And I think that will be within the next 12 to 18 months.
Wow. Bitcoin. Was it moving down because of tech?
Was it moving down because of the Binance hack news? I don't know.
I personally think it just follows tech. But the technicals
do point to a lot of downside action. Has it hit that?
Once it hits that next support of $75,500, what happens?
Yeah, that's going to be the big question, right?
And what's fascinating about this is you could argue
that as the tech stocks were collapsing or Bitcoin
was actually holding up relatively well until we got that hack.
And then it was almost like it was hanging in there
because it was kind of like this digital safe haven asset.
And then once that hack,
it just broke the back of Bitcoin and we saw the big drop.
Once it broke this 81,000 level, you could see it came down,
it tried to get back above, failed, and then we got the hack news.
Once we get down to 75.5, that is going to be the next test.
Like if you're a bull, you got to see that hold.
The reason you have to see that hold is that if we break through this,
look at when you have these many green bars,
there's no area of support in here until we get down to these levels.
And this is around 66,000, 67,000.
And so...
Really, 75.5 is the level to hold if you're a bull or you're headed
much, much lower and you'll revisit that 66,000, 67,000 level.
So watch that level closely next week.
I am a spectator here in that, you know,
we should get some sort of bounce off 75.5 if it hits early next week.
But unless it reclaims 81, I have to just sit on the sidelines
and let this thing tell me what it's going to do.
Yeah, is this still a tech play right now, Bitcoin?
I think to some extent it is,
as much as gold is still and silver is still a tech play.
And I say that with kind of some truth, although it seems
a little weird that, you know, notice how when tech is crashing,
everything's selling off, except for a few defensive names.
Right. Like we mentioned earlier on. But the key is, is that.
People early in 2026, when gold and silver were ripping,
they bought it because it was
like the latest Dogecoin play, like it was the latest tech stock.
And same thing with Bitcoin's run, right?
And so therefore, when tech is crashing
and people are getting scared, they're selling
everything.
It's the sell now, ask questions later type event.
By the way, we saw this in COVID with gold,
too, where gold collapsed initially on that
March 2020 sell off and then came back strong.
But again, investors react emotionally,
and then they think logically later on, like,
oh, was that a good idea?
Gold is gold.
Bitcoin maybe is Bitcoin.
So I think, again, it is a tech play, panic selling.
But again, I actually do still like Bitcoin for the longer term.
And longer term, you know,
what do the charts tell us for growth for, let's say, one year?
On Bitcoin?
Yeah, on Bitcoin.
Yeah. So I'm optimistic that we've made higher highs.
Now we talked about this in our last
interview, how you had a high, lower, high, lower, high.
And then from this high, we made a higher
high, which should mean this is the bottom around this 58,000 level.
So again, if your outlook is
a year to two years out, I think Bitcoin's a lot, lot higher.
It may come down to 66, 67,000. I'll
be a buyer there. If it does with a stop underneath this low down here.
Um, if it does continue up my
My upside target for the next bull move is just.
I mean, it's as simple as just taking a trend line
from the 2017 bull market high through
the highs of 2021.
I mean, if this line has literally depicted
every bull market high, then who am I to say
differently?
And we're looking at upside to, you know,
let's say in January of 2028, about a year
out, this would be 160,000 ish on Bitcoin.
Okay. Gold. Quickly on gold. People have asked me as well,
why has gold fallen when tech stocks and other things fall?
And why is gold not a hedge in that sense?
Why doesn't it go up? How do you answer that?
So the answer is, is that people stopped buying gold as a hedge
and that's why it's not a hedge
right now until you wipe out those buyers. Right.
And so what you had was this kind of, you know,
for, for, I mean, we can go back on this chart
for a long, long time. I mean, it was, it was
defensive hedge, defensive hedge didn't really do much.
And then all of a sudden the de-dollarization
narratives, the inflation stuff kicked in.
And especially in this move from August of 2025,
where gold was 3,300.
All the way up to $5,600.
This is where people started to buy in.
Not because of, hey, I want to be careful.
I want to have some security in gold.
But because, oh, I can make a crapload of money on gold.
So let me just jump in and push a bunch
of money in on the chips, right?
Here on the table with gold.
And...
That's why now the fear factor is driving it back down
because you have all of these buyers from this period.
They're slowly exiting the trade in fear more and more.
And you can see right here, look at this trend line.
We broke it this again.
And again, if we go back to past interviews,
we talked about the thirty five hundred dollar level on gold.
It's still I mean, this is looking more
and more likely that that's where we are headed now.
Like Bitcoin, I'm a huge bull on gold longer term.
How can you not be when you see the U.S. deficit and debt
and money supply, global money supply growing 7% per year?
So, again, these type of things, alternate currencies,
are going to ultimately play out well.
But, again, I would not be surprised
to see $3,500 on gold in the next few weeks even.
You mentioned to me offline you bought a bunch
of physical silver right now at $50 an ounce.
What was your rationale there?
Yeah, so this is a level that on silver,
I had said when we were north of 100, I said,
and, you know, I got a lot of flack for that saying
that, hey, it's going to go back to
$50 an ounce.
But I said, listen, I will not buy physical.
And by the way, when I buy physical, it's long term, right?
I'm not looking to trade because it's too hard to trade in.
And when you sell it back, you get a lower price, etc.
So, you know, for long term investing,
I like physical metals for swing trading.
I play GLD for gold, SLV for silver, right?
But the point being is we finally pierced silver
a level at $50 where a lot of stops were.
So you wiped out a lot of those people that had kind
of gotten in for the wrong reasons, in my opinion.
And then we actually came back.
And look at this.
This is a remarkable chart.
And this is something that, again, a lot of people said, oh,
but, you know, things are so different from 1980 and 2011.
But look at this.
You're high from 1980.
Here's your high from 2011.
Drag it across.
And where did we get to?
Look at this.
So we came, we have now retraced to what
was former resistance now becoming support.
And by the way, I'm not necessarily smart enough
to know if this is the low on silver,
but for me, this was a starting point where I bought some physical
on Friday, just below
$50.
I think I got in about my, my price was locked in around,
you know, 49, 30, give or take.
But that to me was a starting point
of my longer term investing on silver again.
Okay. And then finally on yields, it was interesting how bonds were
catching a bit in the last two days as risk assets were selling off.
And so it really looks like for the last couple of weeks,
5.2, 5.3 was the peak on the 10-year. What do you think?
Yeah, I think I think at this point that's the case
and I'm expecting yields to go lower from here.
A lot of people think that should be bullish for the markets.
I think the best thing that could happen right now is yields go
sideways, maybe even slightly up, like not a lot of volatility.
The reason I say sideways is because the market
is now worried about interest rates going up too high and our debt.
Right. And the debt issues of the market,
but the U.S. debt as well and the global debt.
And then also when yields collapse, what is it saying?
It's saying, oh, my goodness, we're headed into a recession,
which is also bad for the stock market.
So really the best case scenario, it's almost like,
you know, what do you want the Fed to do?
You want them to not be too hawkish, but not be too dovish.
Right in the middle gives the market the confidence
that, OK, nothing's going to change.
We're OK here. And that's what I think yields need to do if the markets
are going to continue up, which, again, I think if oil came in.
You would see a stabilization
in future economic projections of a recession.
So really sideways chop in yields would
be the best case for this market.
Unfortunately, I think that would
be a short term solution, maybe to get S&P to 8000.
And then I think we're headed lower because I think the economy
is already weakening significantly in the underbelly.
Great, great summary.
Thank you so much for your analysis today on Halloween.
Are you dressing up tonight, Gareth?
I am, I am, but very simple.
The kids are doing much more.
I'm getting like some little weird thing on my head,
you know, that looks like I've been murdered, basically.
That's about it.
I was debating between a Grim Reaper or an IRS agent.
I didn't want to offend anybody.
Well, they're pretty scary.
Yeah, exactly.
All right, stay safe tonight.
Have a lot of fun.
Thank you so much for your analysis
and thank you for watching, guys.
Take care.
Thank you.
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