Complete Space Weather Update! Solar Flares! Geomagnetic Storm!

James Kaufman, World News Report, today. It is August 9th, 2025. God bless you and yours, no matter where you are in the world. Please subscribe, give us a thumbs up, ring that bell for critical future updates. Ladies and gentlemen, we've been in a geomagnetic storm and disturbance for about the last 24 to 30 hours, and we're going to take a look at the KP Repeat indexes first. Really showing us a combination of solar winds and plasma striking Earth at any given three-hour period of time. Each bar represents a three-hour period of time. Now, NASA and NOAA have upgraded and primarily used the estimated planetary KP index. Well, yesterday, it showed six hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm and six hours of a geomagnetic disturbance. However, today, ladies and gentlemen, is shown 15 additional hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm. Now, NOAA is saying that we're currently in a G2 geomagnetic storm, but that's not what the data is showing us here or on either one of our satellites, Discover or ACE. Look at the other KP indexes as well. you can see the boulder kp index it looks like we had nine hours of a geomagnetic disturbance and three of a g1 geomagnetic storm today it looks like we had six hours of a geomagnetic disturbance six hours of a g1 geomagnetic storm and three hours of a g2 geomagnetic storm Again, not an index used by NOAA or NASA. On our Fredericksburg index, it looks like we've had a lot of geomagnetic disturbances with only three hours of a geomagnetic storm from 7 to 10 last night central time or from 0 to 100 to 300 UTC time. Finally, our college index, well, it's always our most sensitive. And we see yesterday we had nine hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm, followed by three hours of a geomagnetic disturbance, followed by a lull. And we picked it up today with a total of 12 hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm and three hours of a G3 geomagnetic storm. Again, the college index, KP index, is always much more sensitive. Taking a look at just our Estimated Planetary KP Index, exclusively used by NOAA and NASA after its upgrade, it now measures in thirds of wholes, in other words 5, 5.33, 5.67, and then back to 6. We had three instances where we had a 5.33. That would have had to be a 5.67 to be a G2 geomagnetic storm. So you can see today we've had 15 hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm. This is a 4.67, so you do average up, and it is a storm and not a disturbance. You can also tell by the color-coded index here. We've been in a G1 storm, although NOAA says we're in a G2 storm currently, And I can tell you. Even with current satellite data, we're not. Now, if I go to Germany's, Germany's KP index, I do find that the last three hours we were in a G2 geomagnetic storm. And that's the only place I can find that information. So, take it for what it's worth. NOAA and NASA are supposed to exclusively use the estimated planetary KP index. Of course I thought we were missing something and maybe the action was happening currently. So we're taking a look at our Discover real-time solar wind satellite and next we'll see Ace real time solar wind satellite. This is the newer of the two. You can see that plasma has hung out just above 10 centimeters cubed. Nothing to speak of. This is supposed to be a CME or coronal mass ejection. And solar winds all hitting us at one time. Now, there was an actual increase in solar wind temperature yesterday. And you can see that the temperatures are increased, but not to a level that would regularly cause a geomagnetic storm. I do see that our shields are down here. This tells me just about anything, just about anything will cause a geomagnetic storm now. That Earth has no field to protect itself whatsoever. You can see that the plasma, now there are some anomalies here, but the plasma is hung out and around, and there's a big anomaly right there. 13.86, regularly would never bring you into a G1 geomagnetic storm situation. Here's some additional ones here, so we can grab one. 16.4 would regularly never bring you into a G1 geomagnetic storm situation. Some more here. Pick one up. Nine is below. There's a 12.72. Again, nothing to speak of. Solar winds are down at 506 kilometers per second, which I find very, very slow based on how mean. Based on how mean, there's one instance for one minute, you see a 577, but regularly, if you're in a geomagnetic storm, we're looking at solar winds upwards of 600 kilometers per second, period, even for a G1 geomagnetic storm. You can also see our temperature is slightly elevated here, but nothing out of the ordinary. So we have no significant plasma, we have no significant solar winds, but we have been in a geomagnetic storm all day long. Now you're going to have to explain this one to me. Again, this is our Discovery satellite. We'll check our work on ACE. And NASA just dropped the last three-hour bar here. And then at 1 p.m. Central, it's a G2 geomagnetic storm. The question is how? What's it made up of? Not plasma or solar winds. We just looked at them. There's regularly about a 45-minute delay from the solar winds and plasma hitting our Discovery satellite and our ACE satellite. So we should have seen that data on those satellites. We'll take a look at ACE. Absolutely laughable. All right, here are the last several hours of data again, a different source, Space Weather Live. You can see that the solar winds never approach 600 kilometers per second. They're currently at 545, and plasma is at 3.23, and I guess it peaked out up here at 7.93, actually higher than that, just above 10 here. Nothing that would have brought us into a G2 geomagnetic storm. This is current data up to 1800 UTC time, which is one, one central time, seven minutes ago. We've just had two M-class solar flares, a 1.63, peaking at around 1625 UTC time. And that was followed by a 1.75 M-flare, peaked around 1645 UTC time. So these just occurred. Those would be about 12.25 Central Time here in the U.S. and about 1245 Central Time here in the U.S. as far as the peaks of those two M-flares. And this is the reason we had to do it manually. Those flares have not been assigned to a sunspot group. You can see one of them we said was a 1.76. They say it's a 1.73, the higher of the two, the second flare that peaked. Not yet listed here, okay? This is yesterday's M1 flare. So we know what we're dealing with. It did come from AR4168, which I think you'll agree with me. As soon as I show that to you, 10% chance of having an X-class solar flare, 60% chance of having an M-class solar flare today. That ship sailed, and we are running a C2.16 baseline currently. Over to HMI Intensigram. Now, remember, as our sun moves to the part of the solar system that's just so crowded with other planets. We're going to expect more sunspot groups and more solar activity. Right now we only have 4168. That's a Delta-class sunspot group. You will see that it is the culprit for the last two M-class solar flares. I cannot say it won't be geo-effective towards Earth because our geomagnetic connection is to the outgoing limb over there. Size 4168 It looks like we have, let's see, 4, 8, 11 additional sunspot groups, all simple, although some of them look like they're becoming more complex in front of our eyes here. All right, lucky us, AR4168 popping off right there. We can see the first flare and really the second flare as well. Got lucky there again, right? Just a current look at that coronal hole earth-facing. I think we should be seeing a lot stronger solar winds. I can't believe we're down in the 450 kilometers per second range. All right, taking a look at the back side of our star here. This is going to be the front side of our star and it's going to be the back side. You can see we have several sunspot groups like we have four total the red ones hiding right under 008 here you see 007 here and 006 here and you can see them on the composite down here as well so these are about a day and a half old position wise these will be coming around the limb very very soon especially 006 and 007 It's crazy, we're in a G2 geomagnetic storm with solar winds under 500 km per second and plasma in the 3-5 cm3 range. This is SDO HMI Magnetogram. You can see old 4168 heading around the limb. Sooner the better. And we can see all the other wonderful sunspots, some of them becoming more complex. This does look like, right here, negative over positive in the northern hemisphere, which would be a reverse polarity sunspot group right here. So we'll keep an eye on that right there. This was taken at 6:06 this morning, fairly new. Look at the coronal hole and explain to me. How the winds are at 454 kilometers per second, we just checked them. We checked them on, well, on Discover. I guess we better check them on Ace. I don't know if we have. We checked them on the German equipment. We will check them on Ace as well. This is Soho 284 Angstrom, so you can get a real idea of what's going on and a real good look. That's that sunspot I said should be named. By late tomorrow, and there goes AR-4168. We can also see we have a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere of our sun currently. All right, pulling up ACE, our older space weather satellite. Let's see, plasma has been over 10 a few times, but nothing very, very high. Looks like it might have reached 20. It should not have caused much havoc. Remember, our shields are completely down. We don't have an atmosphere. I guess all of Elon's Starlink rockets took care of that for us. All right, now we do have those solar winds that went up to just under 600 kilometers per second, dropped back down here, and they look like they're trying to head back towards the 600 mark here. But remember 1700 ended right here and this is the G2 geomagnetic storm area right here and right here. So we are seeing an increase in temperature as those solar winds push towards 600 kilometers And if they continue up, per second. I could definitely make an argument for a G2 geomagnetic storm, maybe even a G3. But thus far, I can't with this data. All right, over to Euphoria, the European Space Agency. They screwed everything up. They've got plasma yesterday hitting almost 40 centimeters cubed here. And today they have it at around 25 centimeters cubed. It's just not happening. And then they have taken a sharp drop off to about three or four centimeters cubed, which is happening. They also, well, undershot solar winds by quite a bit. Looks like they peaked their solar winds out at about 450, which they were about an hour ago, but they've been much higher than that. They've actually been higher than 600 kilometers per second over the last two days, just not substantially higher. Whereas, we would think that, well, we could justify a G2 geomagnetic storm. Now, NOAA is expecting this to slow down very quickly. I don't see how. We see that that crow hole will continue to face Earth for several more days. And I will show you all that right now. They're not very worried about these solar winds. I don't think they've seen them. This slow, because I know I haven't with a coronal hole that looks like that, unless it's Memorex, and there's no coronal hole there, and this was the CME created by the flare on the 5th, we know one was lifted on the 5th, and this would make perfect sense if this was a light CME with shields down, but this makes no sense as this huge coronal hole that's still Earth-facing. you can see they're expecting very little action the rest of the day nothing for the 10th and 11th all right over to our D region absorption prediction center taking a look at those two m-class solar flares that just popped off earth facing basically we had x-rays hit that and what did i say 16 25. let's see how close i got boy that's pretty close I would say that the peak was around 1621 or two probably 1621 the second one I said 1645 another guess and the peak to that one was around 1641 so fairly close there you can see the x-rays pounding Well, the north part of South America, all of Central America and the Caribbean, and a lot of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. as well. Over to the planets today, and we can see our next huge watch date is in or around the 14th, maybe the 15th, perhaps the 14th, and after that... We've got another watch here on the 20th. You can see the moon lining up with Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and, well, Saturn, Neptune out to the right don't help out at all. So that's what is in store for us. There could definitely be an X-Flare at any time as Earth transits the busy side of our solar system. Please, guys, share our video. Please help the channel by buying us a cup of coffee or giving us a super thanks or a super chat if you can. Make sure you're subscribed. They've been unsubscribing everyone they can. And always remember that anything's possible in Bizarro World. God bless you all.