NY Election Day Breakdown: Hochul vs. Blakeman, key swing races & voter turnout

The polls are now open across the tri-state area with several important races on this year's ballot. That's right, from the New York gubernatorial race to congressional elections all across the country. There's a lot that we're keeping our eye on this morning. Joining us now to help us break it all down is Ben Max from the New York Law School Center for New York City Law and host of the Ben Max Politics Podcast. Good morning to you, sir. Thanks for having me. So we're hearing about some of these issues up in Westchester County, some of the polling sites having some problems. And that's a significant spot because there's a real big election that we're watching there in the congressional race. Yeah, being part of the New York 17th Congressional District with Mike Lawler trying to keep his seat against Kate Conway, the Democratic challenger there. This is also a very high turnout voter area. So this is this is a problem now. If they're going to let people do the paper ballots, of course, that's good. If people start seeing the lines build up and they say, oh, I'll go, I'll vote after work or later, and then they don't come back, you know, this is a problem. So hopefully they get it fixed quickly. You know, North Carolina, not North Carolina, but the District 17 there is an interesting one because all across the country we're seeing the so-called blue wave where, you know, you've got competitive races in Alaska and Texas, etc., etc. It seems like New York, it should be a shoe-in for a lot of these Democrats. But here we have this district where... It's a real difficult one, a real fight here. Well, the 17th Congressional District is a purple district, no question about it. It can go a couple points one way or the other. I'd be surprised to see a runaway in either direction. Mike Lawler, you would think, would be especially vulnerable in what's expected to be a Democratic year. But he's got a very strong political brand in his district. He tries to be, you know, bipartisan. He's a Republican, but tries to be bipartisan in some ways and has really tried to sort of be a... Tell it like it is, Republican, differentiate himself sometimes with the president and so forth in a district like that where you kind of have to be a little more down the middle. It's one of the few across the country that are really purple, sort of, you know, swing district. Yeah, exactly. Let's talk about the governor's race. It's been interesting because a lot of the polls show Kathy Hochul winning by double digits. Bruce Blakeman has said basically the polls are fake. And now there are articles that basically talk about the polling and what they don't do. Well, listen, you know, I think the modeling by the pollsters is always how do you look at past elections and then try to adjust for what you think the electorate will be like in this election? It's very difficult and it's become more and more difficult as people are more on their phones and not answering the landlines and all of these things. Right. They are guideposts for us, but we've got to take them with a grain of salt. Every poll we've seen shows the governor virtually, you know, with with a double digit lead. So she's a strong favorite, especially in what's expected to be a blue year with a Republican in the White House. But could we see surprises? Absolutely. She only won by six points last time. Now, different political environment, more favorable to Republicans. But we don't know what's going to happen here and we don't know exactly what the turnout is going to be. Governor Hochul is a strong favorite going into Election Day, but anything can happen. Well, it seemed like she wasn't taking any chances. I mean, she was out there campaigning with the mayor and out there campaigning with AOC. I mean, those are big guns in our area. Well, she is very much trying a concerted effort to say to progressives, I'm working with you, I don't agree with you on everything, but come out and vote for me. She wants those AOC and Mamdani voters to come out. They won't all come out for her, of course. But she's trying to make sure that skeptical progressives do come out and she wants to bump the turnout up in the city to counteract what's probably going to happen on Long Island and some other parts of the state. You know, it's interesting in the last presidential election, President Trump made some real inroads in New York City, you know, increasing his percentages by a lot. Did Bruce Blakeman do enough to continue that and to build on that momentum? I think he's worked fairly hard in the city. You probably could do more as a Republican. But again, remember, you know, with Republicans, you want to try to get over 30 percent of the vote in New York City to have a real shot. And you really do have to focus on getting out your voters in other parts of the state and also convincing a lot of the sort of moderate swing voters. There's a lot of independent voters in New York State, more than Republicans. You've got to get those voters on your side. So I think he could have done a little more in New York City. You especially have those voters that went to Trump, a little more Latino voters, Asian voters. He's worked hard in some of those areas of the city, maybe could have done a little more. But I think those margins in New York City will be really interesting to watch. You do have some of those voters that moved to Trump, though, I think pretty disillusioned with how Trump has now governed because they wanted him to focus on cost of living, right? And with the tariffs and other things, we know that that hasn't really gone. And then we're hearing a lot about data centers, technology, fracking. Do you think that resonates with the person who's going to the polls today? Well, I think in certain parts of the state, fracking is a huge issue. You have the southern tier and other parts really upstate, especially western New York. Big issue because there's a lot of people in those areas who traditionally vote Republican, but are especially interested in that. Democrats, including the governor, haven't pursued that since it's been outlawed in the state. So, absolutely. Broadly speaking, energy policy and utility bills are a huge issue. There's voters who are frustrated on the national level with the Republicans that they haven't brought prices down. And then, of course, you see an increase in gas, which could probably be the determinative factor in this whole election. But then there's also people who blame Democrats who control the state for some policies that are not bringing down costs even before Trump came back into the White House. What about people who may split their ticket? I'm thinking out on Long Island, like a Tom Suozzi kind of voter who may vote for him but go for Blakeman. I mean, do you think that could really make a difference? It's absolutely a trend I'm watching. I mean, you've seen in some of these congressional districts where the Democratic candidate has had to really outrun the top of the ticket, whether it's Kamala Harris. Governor Hochul, even back to Andrew Cuomo at times. So it's really interesting to watch. You might also have some other instances where you get, you know, a Hochul Lawler voter. Probably not that many, but it can matter. And I think one of the interesting constituencies to watch there is Jewish voters across the state. You know, who do they think is best right now in this time where we're seeing some realignment of those voters, some of them, you know, moderate to conservative Jewish voters especially. Well, it's going to be interesting. We just want to reiterate, if you're in an area that's having problems with voting, you don't leave. There is a paper ballot that you can fill out. And what we've been told yesterday was that at the end of the day, a Republican and Democrat go through them together and place them in the machine. New York has really strong systems for all this to make sure everybody's votes are counted. Is it perfect? Of course not. You see machines break down, but everybody should stick with it and vote. Ben, where can we expect a little analysis on this? Are you putting out something in the next couple of days? Yeah, you can absolutely find things at Max Politics, wherever you get podcasts. Thank you, Ben.