Expert Warns Eisenkot Forming a Government Will Be ‘Very Difficult’ Against Netanyahu

Well, for more, let's bring in former Australian ambassador to Lebanon and the Australian National University Middle East expert, Ian Palmer. Great to see you. Thanks so much for joining us. As we just heard there, Eisenkot has up to six weeks to form a governing coalition in the 120-seat Knesset. So, Ian, what are the prospects, in your opinion, that he will be successful and what obstacles do you think he's likely to face? Well, he certainly faces a number of obstacles, and as your previous guest said, he doesn't really have the experience that Netanyahu has in terms of working the various factions in the Knesset. It will be very difficult because to form a government, he really needs to rely on the 19 Arab members of the Knesset, and some members of his change bloc, particularly Avigdor Lieberman, who is a very right-wing member of the Knesset, have said that they will not work with the Arab parties. And if that's the case, they really can't form a government. He also faces the problem that Netanyahu will be doing his best while Eisenkot is trying to form a government to attract those from his change bloc that he may be able to offer deals to join him. So Netanyahu isn't out of the picture at this point. Netanyahu also remains caretaker prime minister, which gives him a lot of say in particularly security matters. His ability to be able to raise issues about Israeli security, security, which could affect. The mood of the change bloc and just Eisenkot's ability to put together a governing coalition. But at this stage, the most likely prospect for him is a minority government. He's not likely to be able to get a majority government out of and have the Arab parties with him. So what do you think, then, the likelihood that Netanyahu could resume the war with Iran while Eisenkot is working? on forming a government could be? I think they must be seen as being pretty high at this stage, not least because President Trump, despite the fact that the major Republican losses were attributed by many to the war in Iran, but President Trump still has to finish off the war. He has to get an off-ramp, and he doesn't have one at this stage. And if President Trump does want to resume the war, Netanyahu will certainly be with him, and he'll have no difficulty in framing this as being vital for Israel's security. So I think the chances of, I would say, are better than 50% that Netanyahu and probably Trump will actually resume the war with Iran. And many experts were hearing that between now and, say, January 3, the period in between could be some of the most dangerous times across the Middle East and potentially the world. What are your thoughts on this and what are you going to be watching closely for, Ian? Well, it is a period when Trump will be able to call on, notionally at least, call on what he still has as majority in both houses, although many of the Republicans at this point who have lost their seats, of course, won't be feeling very well disposed towards him. But this is Trump's chance to be able to do something before the... The Democratic majority in both houses of Congress is sworn in on the 3rd of January and makes it very difficult for him. He can get funds allocated to him. And I think if the war is going to resume, it's going to be in this period. We also need to see just how Putin, in relation to the war in Ukraine, decides to see this period because he knows that Trump will be much more difficult to deal with, difficult in the sense that Trump won't be able to help him very much once Trump loses the Republican majority in the House and in the Senate. Ian Palmer, as always, thank you so much. We appreciate your in-depth analysis. Thank you.