Caterpillar CAT, Hershey HSY, Honeywell Aerospace HONY/HONA, Polaris PII...

Good day, fellow investors. Comment on some very interesting stocks. I'm happy with your videos and research platform. Thank you. There is, yes, a suggestion thread, but this is also fine. Hershey, Honeywell, Aerospace, Rollins. Very interesting. Off-road company and perhaps the most interesting here is Caterpillar. Let's discuss that to give you my opinion there. I hope you get value from that. If you don't get value, my new book, The Value Investing Handbook is out. I tried to put the whole value investing principles, strategies, everything into it as one guide for value investors. My research is in the research platform. Check that out. Let's start with Hershey. I think this could be summarized as early 2020s infatuation with whatever the yield is and give me some growth on top of it. Doesn't matter. That peaked 2022. Since then, it has been ugly. Dividend yield, just 3%, P-ratio 20. When you sum it all up, 5-6% return. If you look at the business, okay, yes, 4-5% growth, but with treasuries at 5%, 10-year treasuries, you cannot expect much more. Good business, but still fairly or exuberantly priced, based on that past historical success. Honeywell Aerospace down significantly over the last Few months since the IPO, spun-off out of Honeywell. Okay, this has to be adjusted. Google hasn't done yet, but okay, let's go to the aerospace. Skyshot 1000, rockets. things like that ground vehicles pilot survey but if you look at the numbers two percent growth some adjusted EBIT okay good numbers free cash flow half a billion outlook 2 billion something but then compare the 2 billion or the earnings per share with the price the p ratio is 24 it's okay 4%. 4% free cash flow yield, yes, the potential, the everything, but same as Honeywell International, it are industrials. What happens when the cycle reverts? I know we haven't seen a recession in 17 years, but that's exactly my point. 50% down easily when things revert. For now, everything looks great. Yes, sales, this is Honeywell Technologies, not aerospace. Guidance still there. Good business, nothing wrong, but the risk is there. The earnings have been adjusted, so they are projecting good earnings ahead. Nothing spectacular, but nothing crazy. Rollins, we just discussed it. As I'm doing the S&P 500 stock by stock analysis series, we discussed Rolling, which is at the bottom of the S&P 500. If you go to my research platform this should be on free preview. Put it here on the research base preview and you have the S&P 500 one by one with my commentary. Here's Rollins. All good. Yes the stock is significantly down but the p ratio is still 30. This was still that craziness of buying businesses that go up stocks that go down no matter the price. Now it is fairly priced for the quality it is but that's it it's still a p ratio of 30 it's still very risky. Now next one is Polaris 3.5 billion market cap off-road vehicles yes it's still growing earnings per share everything looks good so some people can get excited but there is significant debt some dividends significant leverage Compared especially to the market cap, things all look good. However, when it comes to these off-roads, boats, RVs, things like that. I remember also people loving tour industries almost 10 years ago. I'm getting older. I should buy myself an RV. But nothing happens there. There is this boom, expansion, acquisition, this and that. Everything looks great, but then very, very difficult sector to invest in competitive advantages. It's really the extreme of the splurging my money. I don't know what to do with my money. With higher interest rates and things like that, recession, weak consumer, things might change, especially if the AI bubble bursts and all these AI millionaires have to tighten up. We'll see. Caterpillar. This was in AI bubble already a while now it has retreated a little bit but still the p-ratio is 24. Yes, the financial results look good, everything is growing, sales up, everybody happy, power and energy. We discussed another generator but everyone says across the data centers it's mostly cat. Good, construction will likely stabilize a little bit And then mining. A lot of investments, gold going up, things like that. Those are the cycles there that are leading everything. Higher guidance, higher margin, everything looks great. But then look at this 30-year Caterpillar chart. These are the revenues now, a little bit higher now. But we've been there in early 2012. We then went down significantly when everything changes. Up, down. So it is. A crazy cyclical, and in the downturn of the cycle they don't make any money. Yes, they will make 11-12 billion now, but that's still a P/E ratio of 24. When they will make 2 billion, when the world will look like very ugly, the market cap will be 100 billion. Or even less. That's the risk. It's a pretty strong risk in the next five years. So for now, it's a gambling stock. Like the others were, like many are still, especially this video is focused on those. That's it. Thanks for the suggestions. I already knew what I would say in this video. Because when you compare things, when I look at my quadrant, where would I put I put Caterpillar, P/E ratio 35, across the cycle, let's say they make 8 billion on average. $8 billion, given the price, we go here. We go here with the expensive bunch of the companies out there. We just discussed the value bunch out there. The link is here. Check my recent Quadrant update. You have also other value stocks on my research platform. I hope I give you value that way. These exuberant stocks are not my style of investing, too risky, low reward. This is exactly what this channel is not about.