Trump wants to give away Ukraine's cards to kiss and make up with Putin ¦ Wider View from Brussels.

Russia and Ukraine, for the first time, I think, want to settle. We have meetings. I've had phone calls today. I'm having some tomorrow. They're having a meeting on Monday and Tuesday, as you know. But I think they want to settle. I think it's going to be a very big settlement. America has just delivered a political shock to Donald Trump. The blue tsunami in the US midterm elections, unprecedented in decades, has wiped out the hopes of the US president to have Congress On his side, both the House of Representatives and the Senate are in the hands of the Democrats. Not only does this mark a substantial change in American domestic politics, but also it is likely to open a new chapter in the balance of power between America, Europe and Russia. How might it play out? Hello, I'm Zbigniew Nawrotowski. Welcome to a big and beautiful program called Wider View from Brussels, where we talk about things that thrill everybody. I just wonder if our guests feel the same way. Roland Freudenstein, expert on European integration and international security, Brussels Freedom Hub, joining us in Brussels in our TVP World Studio. Welcome to the program. And online, Leszek Jaszczewski, editor-in-chief of Liberté, co-organizer of Freedom Games, a major political event in Poland. Welcome to both of you guys. So, are you thrilled about what's going to happen now? No, I'm thrilled about what happened last week. But sure enough After the first champagne bottles popping in European capitals, there were two major insights that were shared by the majority of observers, and that's first of all, Trump may become even worse and less predictable and more irrational than up to now. Why is that? Just in spite, in a mood of spite about the result and the rejection. Because he'll be controlled on the domestic scene, so he'll try to sort of compensate for that on the international arena. He will almost like punish the Europeans for the success of the Democrats. Because the Europeans are Democrats, and Democrats are Europeans in his eyes, the majority of Europeans. So that was one thing. And the other thing was. You know, even if and when the Democrats take over again, American foreign policy, and therefore transatlantic relations, will not return to the status quo ante, like before 2024, 2025, when Trump started his second term. And of course, both points are correct. I think we somehow know this. We've known it for a long time, but it's good to remind ourselves of that. Should we be expecting something worse than what we've seen in the last couple of years? Leszek Jaszczewski, a question to you. Well, if you ask about President Trump... I think one thing we can be sure of is that nothing is predictable and whatever we think we know he's going to do, he's going to contradict himself and do 180 in a week time. So I think it's not about predicting what Trump might do, it's question what is the picture now, what are the options and also what has transformed, what has changed since the So, I think one thing very substantial is that Trump will be much weaker on the domestic front. And it is not just a question that his domestic policy will be targeted, but we see what is happening to the big headsets. Who might be sacked by Trump in advance because of what might happen in the Congress because many Republicans blame him for what happened with the Iran war. And you see that J.D. Vance and some other influential figures openly criticized, maybe not Trump himself. What do you expect American-Russian relations to be like after these elections? Well, I think this is actually a crucial point. So, up until recent elections, I think Russians could safely count on Trump being able to maneuver and And, uh, and negotiate for another two years of his presidency. Now, when he's so weakened, they have to ask themselves, what are the chances of achieving a substantial deal with US and Ukraine and Europeans, with weakened Trump or without Trump? Because it seems that Republicans might lose next presidency. So there is a short window when Russians can still talk to Trump, who is substantially weakened. And I think from their perspective, paradoxically, this is a good time to try to agree on something when Trump might still deliver a much better deal than any other president on the US side. Let me ask Roland about the Russian angle. Are they happy to see what's happening? No, they can't be happy about the midterms and the strength of Congress now as a counterforce. Also, the fact that many Republicans will feel emboldened to counter Trump in his Russia policy. But let me just go back to what Putin really wants. He wants a reset in Russian-American relations without a deal and outside of a deal about Ukraine. And he believes that such a reset could eventually actually drag Trump more on his side of such a deal in the future. And Trump also wants that reset for sheer business reasons. He is greedy for the Russian money that he believes could be made. And what kind of obstacle could a new Congress be in that process, in that reset? Ultimately, Congress can't veto a deal that the president makes. But Congress, a bipartisan majority in Congress, could make Trump's life so difficult that he will have an incentive to at least consider the strongest of Congress's bipartisan objection to his kissing and making up with Putin. So there might be a deal there where... Congress shows him the torture instruments, as it was called in Middle Ages, and Trump can make Trump even more furious. As Leszek just said, we don't know, but there were instances when Trump actually retracted from things he wanted to do. Let's see what we know for certain, and in a bit of a wider view, as the title of this program suggests. We've got. Viktor Orban losing in April in Hungary, we've got President Lula winning in Brazil, we've got Serbia that sends the pro-Russian Vucic to the opposition and now Trump losing both houses, both House of Representatives and the Senate. Would you say, would you agree that the populist right across Europe and even transatlantically is in retreat or is it too far-fetched to say? Leszek. Well we have to keep in mind that those particular elections were lost by the national populists for very particular reasons but Trump being on top of that losing the midterms and in such fashion which is unprecedented in the century is actually a sign that what's you know to quote the famous poem this idea that center cannot hold uh was a false one and that basically once you have reinvented center, or you have a new generation of politicians who can confront Trump on his main achievements, which is grabbing the attention of everyone, that Trump basically lost the reality and that populism and national populism is not inevitable. And I think it's a very important signal. But to your question, if Marine Le Pen wins French presidency next year in April, I think, you know, we might ask ourselves a very different question, whether the national populism is on the rise, especially if in the country, our home country, Poland, the populists will have a chance of winning in September, or October rather. Roland, is populism in retreat, or it's just a... I think there are two things happening at the moment. There is something like a global blue wave, you know, there is a, there are spectacular... Successes, not only of opposition movements against autocrats, but even, take Brazil for example, leftist politicians stay in power against populists despite all predictions. Now, so in reality there is another global phenomenon, which is the cost of living protests and cost of living crises of countries. So many opposition movements. Probably win because of cost of living protests and of course the corruption of those in power. Power. So, it's an anti-incumbent wave, but it's also a very interesting series of successes for the anti-populists. Both developments are happening at the moment, and in some cases… How will it influence the really crucial elections next year in Europe, talking about France, talking about Spain, talking about Poland? Well, in France, the cost-of-living crisis works against the incumbent, who is a liberal. Uh, or... Or even his successor, purported successor, and in favour of the autocrats. Now, you know, opinion polls are still very divided on what is actually going to happen in France. We don't know. I still see a strong... Well, Le Pen seems to be, at this point, number one in all polls. She's number one in the first round. She, by far, got more than 10 percentage points. But for a second round. If there is a reasonable centrist counter-candidate to Marine Le Pen, I still think that that person definitely has a chance and should not be ruled out. Would what happened in the United States somehow influence the French elections, or it will have nothing to do with what's happening in France and Europe? Not much. Also because the French national populists never completely jumped on the Trumpist bandwagon. That has to do something with a Franco-American fraught relationship, you know, going into culture, ways of life and so on. But, of course, in the rest of Europe… Some of the nationalist forces were relying on Trump and were also relying, by the way, on American diplomatic support, you know, with American ambassadors intervening on behalf of nationalist movements with national governments in Europe. You're just calling on Poland without naming it. Yes, but that's what did happen in Poland. That's a question to Leszek Jaszczewski. Prime Minister Donald Tusk says democracy has won in the United States but what does it mean for the president Karol Nawrocki of Poland, probably the strongest ally of Donald Trump in Europe at the moment? Obviously now being attached to the loser, I mean Trump. And especially with his unpredictability and his pro-Russian comments, which also have to be taken into account from the Polish perspective, it's not really an advantage for any politician who wants to aspire to win elections. So I think many Polish politicians, including Karol Nawrocki, would rather forget about Make America Great Again hats they put on and all the pictures they try to do. What about the main opposition party who is going to run again next elections in 2027? Is that going to be a political asset or a political liability? I think at the moment for them the 20 plus percent they are at. The Trump I think Still, it could be acceptable, but I don't think that if they want to expand, they can try to play the American card. They can, of course, try to blame Tusk for not being able to talk to Trump, and that especially if there is no American forces, no American troops sent to Poland within next year, they could blame this government. But if that happens, if Trump decides that it's better to make a deal with unfriendly governments, and I think he might do it, Despite the fact that it was really weakened the chances of the opposition to win, if there is any sort of argument that this government can talk to Trump and there is a sign, for example, with this Patriot Service that is going to be placed in Poland. So if this government can at least have workable relations with the US, I don't think that playing American card would substantially help the opposition, especially that Trump is weakened and attaching to him doesn't really make much electoral sense. Okay. Gentlemen, we're asking all these questions while the talks are just about to open regarding the, they call it the future security architecture of Europe, that is talks between US, Russia and Ukraine. I'm not sure about what the status of Europe in these talks, starting in Abu Dhabi tomorrow and then day after tomorrow, continuing what the status of Europe is. France has just confirmed that they're going to take part on it. Thank Who is Europe, by the way, in these talks? Who is Europe? Who to speak to? Who to call? There was a nice try by Alexander Stubb two weeks ago in his phone call together with the Norwegian Prime Minister to Putin to establish himself, manoeuvre himself into a position of a Europe spokesman. you. That didn't really work. I think at the moment we're back to the situation where senior... Officials from the respective presidential or prime ministerial administrations take part in the talks. Now, in what role, at what table they will sit, whether they will be there for all the meetings between the Ukrainians, Americans and Russians, we don't know. But I would bet that they will be involved in some form because even Trump. And even Putin knows that there will be no solution to this conflict without the Europeans. Okay, Donald Trump says he's expecting a big and beautiful deal. Do you expect a big and beautiful deal, Leszek? Knowing Donald Trump, I'm quite sure that he will make a great and beautiful deal for himself. But there is a question what sort of deal it might be. So I do think that he might get something out of, maybe out of Russia, some proposals that would be interesting for him. But if we are talking about the possible potential peace deal on Ukraine... This is where I don't really expect any prospect of agreements. But we're not only talking about this, Leszek. Trump says the deal might involve all of Europe. So, from his words, I understand. We're talking about something larger than just peace talks or peace in Ukraine. What do you think he might mean? Well, that could be extremely dangerous because when you are dealing with Russia, it's almost like you grant them the possibility of being involved in what's happening to the other countries in the region. And this is what Russia always wanted. This is what was the goal of this war and what was the... The pushback against NATO and against NATO enlargement and against Ukraine being integrated into the transatlantic community and the European community. So if that would lead to this sort of double standard membership of NATO, of withdrawal of American troops, even those who are not permanently stationed here. Okay, Roland, I just wanted to go back to a fact that has just taken place. Trump met Putin's envoy Dmitry at the White House. We know about it. But what is quite interesting, he didn't meet the Ukrainians. What kind of message does that send? Does that send Look, we've been at this point so many times before. Trump seems to listen to Putin more than to Zelensky. And yet, and yet, he so far hasn't managed to completely throw Ukraine under the bus. And my prediction is that he's been trying hard, but there are powerful counter forces against this in Washington, also in Congress, now emboldened. And even more powerful, perhaps. Yeah. I really think that... When we expect the Abu Dhabi talks to deliver some kind of European peace order and security architecture, this is going to be a big nothing burger. What can be achieved in Abu Dhabi is a prisoner exchange. We've had that already a couple of times successfully. In fact, the Ukrainians and the Russians can negotiate that themselves, which they have done. And second, possibly extended ceasefires along the front line. At the line of contact, analogous to what happened in Oleshky. Although in Oleshky, we all know that hours after the end of the ceasefire, the first Russian glide bomb killed 20-something civilians. So, You know, but Russia knows, Putin knows that the line of contact is not really budging anymore. But when you hear all those political messages, aren't you worried that Europe is going to be left out, basically on the table rather than at the table? We're also talking about a possible meeting at the end of the month or in a couple of weeks or so, China, Russia and the United States. OK. Step by step. So, Grzegorz, I honestly think that the current talks in Abu Dhabi are not going to deliver a new security architecture. I even would bet, I would go out on a limb and say even a trilateral meeting Xi-Putin-Trump, if it happens, will not deliver a new European security architecture. And as to the European presence... The Europeans are, in a way, at the table through Ukraine. I know this sounds terribly, you know, pessimistic for Europe, but, honestly, European positions are... By and large, Ukrainian positions in these talks. And so, you know, the Europeans will, at the end, have to deliver the security guarantees that Ukraine insists on. Right. I just wanted you to comment on one message from Timothy Snyder, Facebook, just a couple of hours ago. One crucial thing he writes to watch is how many US and Ukrainian assets Trump tries to give. Russia in the next three months, probably deserving of a real-time investigation of its own. What do you think about it? What might be those assets? Yeah, that's a good question. I think it's money, at least from the American side, for Russian raw materials, energy, and so on. For Ukraine, it would be, you know, dealing away the cards that now Zelensky, obviously, does hold in his hand, as contrary to the Oval Office spat last year. And the danger is that Trump... Trump wants to give all this away in order to kiss and make up with Putin and reset the relationship with Russia. Now the uptick here is that it's probably not going to happen like this because Trump cannot deliver. Simply because there will be powerful interests in Washington preventing him from doing so. Leszek Jaszczewski, to finish this program and conclude it in a way, do you think that Abu Dhabi could be the beginning of a genuine peace process? I don't think that Abu Dhabi will be the beginning of the peace process, but as Adelouce wrote about Donald Trump's Reasons losing in the midterms, I think we might see the end of the beginning, to paraphrase Winston Churchill. So I think we see the end of the beginning of talking about the peace talks. And I think after the winter, when the Russians will try to beat Ukraine into corner and to get advantage by destroying civilian infrastructure and also by making main cities, especially Kiev, unlivable. I think this is when they will have to start next year to answer the question whether any sort of progress and the deal will be better off without Trump in office or without Trump in office. And I think 2027 will be the year when Russians might also see incentives to make a deal, because currently they might have thought that Trump will give them on a silver plate what they cannot win on the battlefield. I think if they don't get it over the next six months, They will have to start to reconsider and perhaps finally start real peace talks because currently I don't think that Putin is serious about it. Ron, do you think the meeting of the big three, see Putin and Trump, will take place at all? I'd give it a 50-50 chance, but if it takes place, it's not going to be primarily about Ukraine, it's going to be about Iran, it's going to be about nuclear armament, disarmament. Should Europe be afraid? Well, yes, because it's two autocrats and one would-be autocrat is always a bad combination. And the very idea that there are three big guys who rule the world is a very, very bad idea. What's worst you would expect at that meeting? The symbolism. That, you know, America... Yalta, as President Zelensky says, or it's too much? Yalta, it's not going to happen. But even an attempt. At Yalta, happening will be bad enough for the rest of the world. Thank you very much, Roland Freudenstein and Leszek Gajdzinski joining us on YW. Thanks very much and see you next week.