James Kaufman, World News Report, today, March 22nd, 2025.
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Strong geomagnetic storm predicted for tomorrow.
That's right, tomorrow, March 23rd, 2025.
NOAA forecasters are predicting
a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm on March 23rd when a
coronal mass ejection is expected to directly hit Earth.
Now for the crazy part.
The coronal mass ejection was hurled
into space yesterday by an M1.2-class solar flare
that was Earth-facing and came from sunspot AR4028.
It was a faint and wimpy looking coronal mass ejection,
and normally it wouldn't even cause a geomagnetic storm.
However, the Russell-McFerrin effect boosts the effectiveness
of these coronal mass ejections around the equinox periods,
which we are currently in.
It's like our sun's getting a little bit busier here.
We have a beta gamma sunspot and 4028 is down here.
It was closer to where 4030 was yesterday when it expelled
the coronal mass ejection that's inbound towards Earth.
We currently have 13 named Earth-facing sunspots on our solar disk.
We'll have to wait to see if they're going to get it right,
but this is the WSA Enlil Solar
Prediction Center,
NOAA's upgraded bad boy that completely missed yesterday's storm and
this morning's storm, for that matter.
But tomorrow, they have plasma going up to about 30 centimeters cubed
and solar winds
going up to almost 900 kilometers per second.
It's going to be some show.
Now, both the folks that work at the Space Weather Prediction Center
at NOAA and the NOAA KP Index forecasters both agree that we're looking
at a heavy geomagnetic storm throughout most all of the day.
They've got about 21 hours going into, of course,
24 hours with a small, a small gap there.
So, we're going to see what happens, but they're looking for,
again, a G3 strong geomagnetic storm
based on a very, very small M1.2 solar flare.
Let's read why.
The Russell and McFerrin hypothesis.
The semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity
is well established in geomagnetic data.
Its explanation has remained elusive.
However...
We propose simply that it is caused by a semiannual variation
in the effective southward component
of the interplanetary field.
The southward field arises because the interplanetary field
is ordered in the solar equatorial coordinate
system, whereas the interaction with the magnetosphere
is controlled by a magnetospheric system.
several simple models utilizing this effective modulation
of the southward component of the interplanetary field
are examined one of these closely predicts the observed phase
and amplitude of these semiannual variations
This model assumes that northward interplanetary fields
are non-interacting
and that the interaction with the southward field is ordered in a solar
Magnetospheric Coordinates
The prediction of the diurnal variation of the strength
of the interaction at the magnetopause by this model does not,
however, match the diurnal variation
of the geomagnetic activity as derived from ground-based data.
However, predictions of the dependence
of geomagnetic activity on the...
Polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field
and of a 22-year cycle in the geomagnetic activity
are confirmed by studies of ground-based data.
It appears that the mechanism controlling
the semi-annual variations of the geomagnetic activity
has been identified,
but that a quantitative model must await further refinements
in our knowledge of the solar-wind magnetosphere coupling.
Now, translation, the shields are down.
God bless you and yours, folks.
Please share, subscribe, and always remember, anything's possible.
Bizarro World, the Russell McFerrin effect.
And now you know what that is, hopefully.