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A caller asks whether he should pay off his $420,000 mortgage or keep his money invested due to fears of a market correction. The host advises paying off the home regardless of market trends, citing data from millionaires and the psychological freedom of being debt-free over the mathematical appeal of interest rate arbitrage.
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I've got a decision to make.
We've got a mortgage that we've been hyper-focused on paying off.
Cool.
About a $420,000 mortgage at 5%,
and I've got money that I could pay it off tomorrow.
And with the market correction coming,
I'm wondering what is the best financial decision.
Based on opportunity loss, right?
Opportunity risk versus the mental well-being
of getting rid of your mortgage.
When's the correction happening?
I want to mark my calendar, make sure I'm prepared.
Do you know the date?
No, sir.
Hence the call.
Do what?
Hence the call.
I said, hence the call.
Why do you think there's a correction coming?
I guess just listening to the difference.
The financial information coming out,
they believe that the market's oversold again,
if I was professional, I'm sure.
Who's they?
You just hear different, you know,
Warren Buffetts of the world and other, you know.
Warren Buffett is not selling due to a correction that's coming.
That's not true.
No, I mean, really, I don't know where you've gotten this.
I don't know that a correction is coming,
and that's why I'm disagreeing.
Let's pretend, though, for a second, that a correction is not coming.
And that the market since 2023, if you left your money in,
it would have doubled during that time.
Even if that is the situation in the next five years,
I'm still going to pay off my house.
You want to know why?
I would like to know.
Yeah, that's a good question.
You should want to know.
Don't take some guy on the radio's word for something.
You ought to understand it yourself.
That's good.
I like that.
Good man.
All right, now, here's why.
The data tells us
That people who have paid off homes
build more wealth than people who don't.
Actual data, not somebody said on the internet.
We studied 10,167 millionaires,
89% of which, that's 9 out of 10 of them,
who started with nothing and became millionaires.
In the greatest society for building wealth that has ever been known
in the history of man called the United States of America.
And that's what they have done.
And it took them an average of 12 to 17 years
to build that first million dollar net worth.
As we interviewed them, they had a one
to a $10 million net worth on average.
They all said, don't wait for the interest rate
to be perfect before buying or refinancing a home.
Talk to Churchill Mortgage.
Smart buyers buy the home they can afford now
and then refinance later if rates improve.
Churchill helps you make decisions with confidence instead of guessing.
And Churchill Mortgage has a webpage
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86% of them said paying off their home
was a key part of them becoming wealthy.
Because of the peace it gave them,
because of the effect on their relationships,
because of the effect on their career choices,
because they weren't worried about some bozo taking their home.
And guess what?
They also freed up a huge chunk of money each month to invest,
because your most powerful wealth-building tool is your income.
So even if you and I are...
Diametrically opposed on whether a correction is coming
or not, doesn't matter.
The answer here is still going to be the same because the data tells us
your most powerful wealth building tool is the guy in your mirror.
None of them, precisely zero,
said the way I became wealthy was I arbitraged my personal
home by borrowing at 5% and investing at 7% to 12% to 14%,
or whatever the market did
right then.
None of them said that's how they become wealthy.
Zero.
And this is wealthy people,
not broke people in their mother's basement with a financial
blog.
These are real wealthy people, people that really did it.
And so that data tells me that that's the way to go,
that when God said in the Bible, in Proverbs 22, 7,
that the borrower is slave to the lender,
it didn't say accept home mortgages.
It said period, slave.
Can you imagine the attitude at work of someone who's not a slave
versus someone who is a slave?
Can you imagine your likelihood to get promoted?
Can you imagine the divorce statistics among slaves versus non-slaves?
Oh, and guess what?
Divorce is a key factor in building wealth
because marriage is grand, but divorce is
50 grand.
So all of this comes into play.
And it's a little more complicated than
a simplistic arbitrage formula of, I've got
a 5% mortgage and I can invest in the market at 12.
That's very naive and incomplete.
That's not how life really works.
And so really good question, Jeremiah.
Thank you for letting me get up on my soapbox
because I know right where it is.
I enjoyed that.
That was fun for me personally.
But a couple of good thoughts here.
Number one, time in the market beats timing the market.
And so you do want to be in there a long time.
We invest for the long haul.
So the question I have for you is,
why were you investing?
Was it for the purpose of paying off that home
once you had the full balance?
Was it just for fun?
And then why do you want to pay off the home?
It likely has nothing to do with...
If the market's going to be up or down,
it's probably because you want some peace in your life.
Yeah, he said that.
He didn't say that.
To his credit, he didn't say that.
There's a job loss.
So, George, let me ask you something,
because I've made such a good habit.
I'm so proud of myself.
I just don't read the trash on the internet.
I hardly watch TV anymore.
I'm becoming that guy, you know?
Um, and so I certainly don't read the asinine comments
that some of you trolls post after
our stuff.
Sometimes my friends tell me about it.
Sometimes George tells me about it,
but I don't read them because I don't really care
what you think because you're wrong.
So I don't need to read your tripe.
So I'm curious, because since I don't inject myself into this world,
where is Jeremiah going to get such piss-poor information?
Well, you know, on, I think, especially on Twitter,
there's a lot of news that flies by,
and there's a lot of, here's what's going to happen.
There's an AI bubble, and it can't stay at record highs for this long.
Something's got to give.
And so I think people are feeling the pressure of, things are too good.
It can't be good for much longer.
So it's basically the spirit of Eeyore
has gotten loose on the internet.
Essentially, it's everything's overpriced and the AI bubble.
It's bad, everything's bad.
And NVIDIA is overpriced.
Little man can't get ahead.
It's gotten too big, so it has to fall.
The spirit of Eeyore.
When you blow up a balloon too much, eventually it could pop.
I think that's the idea.
You could, or you could let it be free
and let it drift away to wherever it is those balloons go to
when little children lose them at the happy birthday party, right?
And there goes the balloon, right?
And eventually it pops in the solar system.
How do we know?
How do you know that, George?
That's a good question.
Were you there when it happened?
I wasn't.
All right.
I don't know.
It could just fly away to the place the balloons go to.
Seriously, here's the thing.
I don't know about market corrections in the short term.
I truly don't.
And I'll guarantee you this, neither does anyone else.
The only people that can be wrong most of the time
and keep their jobs are economists
and weather forecasters.
They're the only ones.
My wife is like, it's going to rain today.
It's a 62% chance of rain.
Watch it for three more hours.
It will change.
Oh, and by the way, that's a 38% chance it's not going to rain.
Such an optimist, this guy.
I'm going to play golf.
That's it.
I mean, I'm going.
So you can sit here and look at the radar.
I'm not going to.
So that's, but this is the way,
there's a human nature thing here that's interesting.
So anyway, to help you with that,
because we all have the spirit of Eeyore, some of
us in larger portions than others,
but we all have that person who wonders about the
balloon popping.
We all wonder about, is the real estate prices,
when are they going to come back down?
I don't know.
I started buying real estate.
I started selling real estate in 1978.
I haven't seen them come down just for a minute in 2008.
And then they went right back up.
Does anybody remember that?
Anybody remember what happened when all you
people came out of your houses after COVID?
Y'all were buying real estate like a Baptist after a casserole.
I mean, y'all went nuts.
And it just goes crazy, y'all.
And so what happens to real estate?
What happens to the stock market?
I don't know.
Let's look since 1970.
Let's look since 1950.
What's the stock market done?
I started investing in my 20s in the 1980s.
What's the stock market done since the 1980s?
Made me rich.
That's what it did.
About every seven years.
Did it go back down?
Yeah.
Did it go back up?
Yeah.
Did it go back down?
Yeah.
But overall, did it go up?
Yeah.
So I don't wring my hands and fret about corrections,
and I don't read idiots who talk about them.
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