A HUGE Storm Is About To Strike...

A strong cold front is about to sweep across the United States, which will lead to a widespread hard freeze in the first snow of the season. Temperatures will crash across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast, which will bring a freeze this weekend that will end the growing season for over 40 million people. And as that cold air settles in, the snow is about to start flying across the higher terrain. Lake effect snow will impact the Great Lakes over the next few days, And some places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. could see their first snow of the season. Our first real taste of fall is on the way, so let's get right into the forecast. So let's start with this storm system because over the next few days, it's going to bring a little bit of everything from a surprise severe weather threat today with tornadoes possible to a coastal storm and mountain snow to the coldest air of the season behind it for millions of people. And this is all going to start today as the cold front will push into Ohio and the Tennessee Valleys this afternoon. And even the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level one out of five marginal risk from Indianapolis all the way back down through Louisville. And this is also going into Nashville. where storms will be kind of firing this afternoon in Illinois and Indiana, and then we'll fill in farther south into Kentucky and Middle Tennessee by the late afternoon and evening tonight. The main concern will be isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts, but a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out either. And I do think a lot of people are surprised that we have a tornado threat in place, but the Storm Prediction Center has issued one for areas like Indianapolis, Lafayette, back through Evansville and Clarksville, and even into Nashville. And this is where we are expecting at least a low-end but non-zero The window today is going to be very short, though. It's going to be late afternoon into the early evening, right as the winds above the ground strengthen. Once the sun goes down, that's when the atmosphere is going to start to stabilize pretty quickly. So generally speaking, the threat here this afternoon is going to probably be from about 330 until 7. Just make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and subscribe to our channel in case we do go live. So let's walk you through the timing using the HRR model. And starting around noon, there will already be at least some elevated storms out there. Mainly across portions of Illinois and Indiana, those are mostly going to be rain and thunder, but again, not really that big of a concern. But by 2 to 3 o'clock this afternoon, that is when storms will start to try to fire along our frontal boundary, and then by around 5 to 6 is the time to really watch, because a few of these isolated supercells could try to get organized, and if that does take place, we may end up seeing an isolated tornado and some damaging wind gusts. And then as we get closer to 8, 9 o'clock tonight, any storms that still have a little A little bit of instability to work with. Could still bring a damaging wind or tornado threat. And then by 10 to 11 o'clock tonight, most of these storms will just be producing some rainfall with a few isolated rumbles of thunder continuing and some gusty winds as these storms track into Ohio and as well as parts of eastern Kentucky. And then as the system moves east, it will spin up into a coastal storm that we've been watching for several days now. And a lot of you have been asking me, is this actually going to be a nor'easter? And the answer to that is yes, but it's going to be a fairly weak one as the low pressure center is forecasted to form just off the coast of the mid-Atlantic. And this is going to track northeast right into New England, and it's going to bring some pretty strong winds, and the pressure is also going to drop rapidly. We think the pressure will get down to about 990 millibars as we head into this weekend. And generally speaking, this isn't even close to bomb cyclone territory, so this is nowhere near that strong of nor'easter, but it will bring gusty winds up to 45 miles per hour, several inches of rain, and also the threat of snowfall. So for most people, this storm is mainly going to be a rainmaker. With that said, the Weather Prediction Center has about an inch of rain falling through Sunday in New York City and Albany, close to about an inch in Boston, and around a half of an inch for Philly. But the farther south and west you go, the less there is with Pittsburgh and D.C. barely getting rain. But we could have a transition into snow at some point out of this storm. So here's how this is all going to play out. Beginning tomorrow, the rain is going to spread across Pennsylvania and New York, and then as the cold air wraps around the backside Thursday night into Friday morning, the rain is going to start flipping into snow. This will be mainly for those in the higher terrain of upstate New York and Vermont, and even by Saturday, the GFS is actually showing that there could be some snow showers hanging around in parts of the mountains. But I would not be shocked if some lower terrain areas did see a mix of rain and snow, Maybe not accumulation, but at least a mix of rain and snow. Over the next few days now I do want to show you how our snow forecast has changed since last Friday and every box here on this graphic is a different model run and over in Lake Placid the GFS model started out high and has been coming down back to reality while the European models basically started low and has been coming up so both models are basically agreeing now so we're bringing our forecast down a little from yesterday because in our early forecast we had about. Four to eight inches of snow in this area, mainly in the Alleghenies, and now we're down to about three to five inches of snow. Over in West Virginia, for example, this is another place that has gone down a little bit. Back over near Snowshoe and even Davis, we were around three to five inches, and now we're down to about two to three. And over in Marquette, Michigan, we're not talking about much, probably one to two inches with a better shot of... Up to six to eight inches of snow being just west of Marquette. And there is one more spot that I'm watching and that is in Northwest Indiana because tomorrow evening into early Friday, there are a lot of models that are showing a narrow band of lake effect snow coming off of Lake Michigan. And if that band can get heavy enough, it actually could flip from rain over to a wet snow. And most of the models right now have around zero to three inches of snow here, the HRRR being the highest at about three and a half inches in a couple isolated locations. So we'll have to see how this unfolds. But overall, not much snow. But it is the first snow likely of the season for these places. Now let's talk about the cold, because right behind this storm, it's all going to pour in at once. And yesterday's forecast, I did tell you that the coldest air of the season is coming. And that, again, has not changed. And just look at the difference. Right now over in Nashville, we are talking about 61 degrees tonight. But by Saturday morning, we're going to be down to 27. Chicago is going to go from 48 down to 29. And even Atlanta is going to drop to 34 degrees. So it is going to get very cold very quick. quickly with our coldest morning of the week likely being Saturday and all of you are going to feel that switch flip really fast because today in Nashville it could hit the upper 60s. Chicago could be in the mid 50s and Atlanta is going to be in the 70s but by tomorrow the Midwest is going to be stuck in the 40s all day. St. Louis is only going to get to about 50 and that's 16 degrees below normal. Kansas City and Nashville are both going to be about 14 degrees below normal as well and then Friday is really going to be the coldest afternoon of all because Chicago is only going to You're going to get to 43, St. St. Louis only 45, Nashville 48. And here's the crazy part. In Nashville and Atlanta, Friday's high temperature is going to be colder than any normal day during the entire year. That even includes the middle of the winter, which usually runs warmer than these high temperatures that we are going to be experiencing. In addition to that, New York City is only going to make it to about 46, which is 10 degrees below normal. And for a lot of you, this is going to be the coldest air that you have felt since the springtime. Nashville is currently forecast to drop to about 26 degrees this weekend, and the last time it was this cold was March 17th. St. Louis, Memphis, and Atlanta are the same story, the coldest since mid-March, and Chicago and Detroit haven't been this cold since April. So get those winter jackets ready, because we're only going to continue to get more and more cold shots from here. And this also does mean that a lot of people are about to get their first freeze of the season, It is going to spread farther south each and every morning. Friday morning, it's going to be about 19 million people at risk. Saturday, that number is going to jump to 47 million. And then Sunday morning, it's going to be roughly 61 million people that will have their first freeze of the season. So it is really important that if you have any plants outdoors, you need to bring them in, protect sensitive vegetation, and share our forecast with a friend or family member so they are also aware of the freeze that is coming. Now, while the east is freezing, the west is doing the exact opposite. That is because of the omega block pattern that we've been talking about all week. With the cold that is dipping down into the east, the warmth is basically bulging up out of the west. Places like Portland, Oregon are currently forecasted to hit 66 degrees today, which would actually beat its record of 64. Seattle's also going to get to 63, which is only two degrees shy of its record. So complete polar opposites of what are happening across the country right now, and that should continue through the end of the weekend. And out west, the next storm is already lining up because a stronger Pacific The Pacific system is going to be pushing into the West Coast by Friday with a long stream of moisture, what we call an atmospheric river, that is literally going to be aimed right at Northern California and Oregon. Eureka, California could actually pick up close to three inches of rain on Sunday and Portland and Seattle around an inch. And this is the same system that we are going to be watching all of next week as well, because any little bits and pieces of this storm that break off could actually create a brand new large storm that impacts the Great Plains, Midwest and Ohio Valley. So let's put this all together beginning with with today where the cold front is going to be sweeping through with a few severe thunderstorms possible in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. By tomorrow, the coastal rain will move in. Friday, the rain is going to turn into mountain snow with three to five inches possible at places like Lake Placid and Snowshoe, and there's also a possibility of some snow elsewhere. Saturday morning, a hard freeze with Nashville down to 27 degrees as expected. There will be a lot of places that end up going under this hard freeze. And then Sunday, we'll have 61 million people at threat of a widespread freeze. And then as we go into late Sunday and also into next week, we're going to have to watch for more big storm systems that will be making their way off the West Coast and into the Rocky Mountains. And before we end today's forecast, I am asking all of you to give us feedback. We've been trying a new video style over the last week. As you've probably seen, we have new graph. New graphics, new explainers, and I would love to hear your feedback. Do you like this? Do you like the old video style? What do you like? Let me know down in the comments below. Give me your likes, dislikes, anything that you would change about the way that we're doing forecasts. We are kind of making some improvements. We're trying to change some things, especially since we are in a slightly quieter weather period, and we want to be ready to go as we go into an active severe weather season during December, January, February, and also in the next severe weather season. So let me know down in the comments below. Also do not forget to check out the brand new snow measuring tool that we have, the snow shaft. It comes double-sided with inches and centimeters and also has my cat cheese car on the back. It is a amazing tool to get. A lot of you guys are picking these up right now as we have snow on the way this week. It is a great idea to pick one up. They're shipping really quickly as well. We have a small team that is currently shipping all these out hand by hand So if you want to support our team and what we're doing, Go to shopmaxvelocity.net and pick up a snow shaft. Thank you guys all again so much for watching. We will see you in the next video or live stream.