Insider Drops Bombshell Dodgers Skubal Update...

An MLB insider just gave us a major update on Tarik Skubal, as right now the team that had him all year is not first on the odds board. The Mets have a meeting scheduled with them. The Padres have jumped ahead of the Dodgers, according to reporters' odds. And the Dodgers? Well, their GM, Brandon Gomes, has said they are expected to meet with him soon. Now, soon, though, maybe not good enough, and I'll show you why the Dodgers have to pay this man whatever it takes. Before we move on, this channel just hit 20,000 subscribers, so thank you so much. And if you want more Dodgers deep dives like this, hit that subscribe button to join the over 20,000 strong. Start with what he did in our uniform, because it was only 10 regular season starts. However, in those 10 starts as a Dodger, Skubal had a 2.61 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 62 innings. Before the trade with Detroit, he had a 2.79 ERA in 16 starts. The move to LA did not slow him down. Then came the postseason, two starts, 11 innings, and a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts. Andrew Friedman said of the way he adjusted after midseason trade, quote, I can't say enough. A star who fits the clubhouse in two months is the hard part. The price should be the easy part for the Dodgers. So go through all 10 of his regular season starts in a Dodgers uniform because the consistency is the whole case to bring him back. In seven of those 10 starts, he allowed two earned runs or fewer. Twice, he threw seven scoreless innings, September 14th against Cincinnati with nine Ks, and September 25th against the Giants with 10. Twice, he struck out at least 10, 11 in Pittsburgh on August 22nd, and 10 on September 25th. His worst start in blue was four earned runs in five innings against the Giants on September 19th, and he answered with seven scoreless six days later. That is what an ace does. The bad night does not turn into a bad week. Over a full season, he finished with a 12-7 record, a .96 whip, 186 strikeouts against only 27 walks in 158 and two-thirds innings, battling through injury as well. Let's go back to August 2nd because the Dodgers already did the hard part. They got him. Two-time Cy Young winner from Detroit for three prospects. Zaire Hope, River Ryan, Brady Smith went to Detroit. Now, Hope ranked 25th, and Ryan was 68th on MLB's pipeline list. Now, Smith was the Dodgers' 17th-ranked prospect alongside him. The Dodgers also were able to keep pitchers Emmett Sheen and Justin Hrableski. Critics said the price was actually pretty low for Mr. Skubal. Now, think about what that means. They paid for a few months of Skubal, and now they can pay to keep him for the rest of his prime. If he walks, the trade bought 10 regular season starts, two playoff starts, and an exit. It's a rental, and the Dodgers, they don't rent. They build. So what does the cost look like? Well, the record for a pitcher is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 12 years, $325 million. And he signed, of course, with the Dodgers. Skenables' price is expected to potentially go upwards of $400 million. And the Dodgers, they have room. Kyle Tucker's $57 million a year is off the books after 2029. Glasnow's money is gone after 2028. A Dodgers Nation writer put it this way. If you will give Tucker four years in 240, you will give Skenables $360 million over six. Why? Because Skenables is in the top 4% of pitchers in baseball by WAR, and that is not the stat that I'd even lead with for him. He only walks 3.6% of the batters he's faced, 96th percentile. His WHIP is .96, 94th percentile. His FIP, 221, 91st percentile. In 2025 with Detroit, he had a 2-2-1 ERA with 241 strikeouts. And since 2015, only 12 other seasons with 180 strikeouts and a 2-7 ERA or better beat that ERA. You do not let a pitcher like that walk to save money, especially when you're the Dodgers. The fair question is whether the Dodgers need him, since they already do have Yamamoto, Snell, and Glasnow. And look closer, Yamamoto held hitters to a .182 batting average against, but his contact quality says they probably should have been around a .212, which is still really good. In plain terms, he got some luck, and luck is not a full plan, but again, they are really solid pitchers, and you want to add Skenables to them. Glasnow had a knuckle curve, and he threw it 21.1% of the time. Now, that's a real adjustment, but a new pitch is not a proven one. Of course, we've seen injuries with him as well. Snell is owed $31.1 million a year through 2029, and Skenables would sit above all of them as the clear No. 1. People will say the Dodgers lost anyway, so what did the trade change? We'll look at what he actually did in October. His first playoff start as a Dodger was October 3rd against Atlanta. Six innings, one earned run, seven Ks, and a win. His second, October 11th against Milwaukee. Five innings, two earned runs, seven Ks, but a loss. Add them up, 11 innings, 3 earned runs, 14 strikeouts, a 2.45 ERA. Another start was a collapse, and in both, he gave his team a real chance to win. He also gave up a home run in each start and walked 4 batters in 11 innings, which is 3.27 per 9, more than double his regular season rate. That's the honest rate. Two starts with a tiny sample size, and it tells you nothing about who he actually is. What it does tell you is that the best version of this team has an ace who can start a playoff game. Not many teams can say that. And to be fair, there is a real risk, and I'm not going to skip it. His 2026 season was interrupted by elbow surgery to remove loose bodies, and he only made 26 starts. He missed more than six weeks from April 29th to June 13th, and still finished with a .272 ERA. And when he came back, his starts looked the same, and in the playoffs he gave up just three earned runs. A long contract for any pitcher is a risk, but Yamamoto's deal had opt-outs, and a deal for Scoobel can be built in the same way. The Dodgers have paid the risk premium before, and it worked. Now put yourself in his shoes, because the other teams, they have a pitch too. The Mets have the money and the need, and Heyman reports a meeting is scheduled with Skubal. The Padres have interest, per John Morosi, and one projection has them ahead of the Dodgers. And in Detroit, Skubal has said he would love to return to the Tigers, though that comment of course came before the trade. But look at what the Dodgers have that nobody else offers all at once. They are the team that won 100 games. They are the team that he already knows. In Detroit, he had a 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts in 2024, then a 2.21 ERA, 241 in 2025. Great numbers on a team that was losing. The Tigers were around 500 or worse when they traded him, and he's going to want to win. A pitcher, at his level, picks the place where the ceiling is highest, and that's Los Angeles. That's my case. The Dodgers have the room. They need the head start, and December 1st is coming quick. Now the clock. The collective bargaining agreement expires December 1st. A lockout is widely expected the day after, and the owners want a salary cap and floor. The reported owner proposal caps any single player at 15% of the payroll, and if that survives, the day of stacking one or more aces may be over. So the deal before December 1st is the Dodgers' best window, and every other team knows it, too. Hayman reports the Mets have a meeting set with him. The Padres are circling, and Skubal reportedly is bidding six different teams. And ESPN's Alden Gonzalez says his sense is that Skubal would love to return to the Dodgers. Now here's the part the front office has to answer. Freeman has let deadline stars walk before. Dodgers Nation lists Machado, Scherzer, Turner, Darvish, and Flaherty as players that he did not keep. But none of them were 29-year-old superstars with two-time Cy Youngs to their belt who just made 10 starts in two playoffs in blue. Freedman said the people calling the Dodgers a team on the downside are just more noise. Noise is fine. A 162 team needs an ace, not a slogan. Nightingale wrote it at the deadline. Skenables will be signing with the Dodgers as a free agent. Now prove it. And think about the message it sends. A team that traded three prospects for him in August lets him go. November is telling the fans that the trade was fully a rental. The Dodgers sold their fans the idea of a three-peat and a three-peat. Well, it didn't happen. Now they've got to go out there and attack, and it needs the best pitcher available. Nightingale called the trade a way to undercut the critics of the cap, and the best way to prove it is right to pay him. And if the owners get a cap, this may be the last time a team can spend like this, which makes it more urgent, not less. Skenables is 29. A long deal that starts at 29 carries through his prime. Spend now, and the argument's over. Pay him. And the three-peat conversation, guess what? That can come back into play over the next couple of years. Wait and watch him in a Mets uniform. Who knows what happens? And let me know in the comments, should the Dodgers pay Skenables $400 million or more? Yes or no? We appreciate you watching, and we'll see you in the next one. For now, peace out.