Russia using 'illegal and unethical means, knows Europe won't use same means back', expert says

This is apropos. Several schools were evacuated in Italy for a second day this Thursday over emailed hoax bomb threats as the government sought to reassure the public after scenes of panic and chaos. This as Norwegian security services said there was reason to expect Russian acts of sabotage over the coming months. It comes amid mounting concern across Europe that recent hoax threats and cyber attacks could be part of a massive hybrid warfare campaign. Ophelia Jacobson has more. Thousands of schools across Italy were put on high alert Thursday after receiving hoax bomb threats. Just one day prior, more than 6,000 Italian schools received a similar threat. Schools in the UK and Ireland did too. A dangerous hybrid warfare campaign is underway aimed at paralyzing essential services, destabilizing institutions and targeting citizens and businesses. Our values of freedom are under threat. Airplanes across Europe were the target of bomb hoaxes last week, and in Ireland, several media outlets, including its state broadcaster, faced similar threats. The country currently holds the EU presidency. This week, dozens of world leaders are in Dublin for a major European summit, where security and a united response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is top of mind. We have a chance, together with the Americans, to achieve a genuine peace order in Europe here. But there's still a long road ahead, and we must travel this long road together. There is currently no hard evidence linking Russia to recent threats, but government officials warn Moscow is ramping up hybrid warfare to stir chaos and destabilize Europe. We've seen that all over the place. Cyberattacks, real threats of bombs, real arson attacks, the Leipzig drone attack, we've seen that in the ships around, flying in. It's a constant thing. We have hybrid attacks on the border, like record, record amount ever it's been. That is exactly the disruption that he wants to achieve. Cyber attacks hit supermarkets across Europe earlier this month, just weeks after French stores were first targeted. The French foreign minister says Iran was behind the attacks that caused fridge and freezer temperatures to spike across the country, a claim that Tehran rejects. To discuss, we're joined now by Elizabeth Braugh, columnist, author and senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative. Elizabeth, thanks so much for being with us on the programme this evening. Firstly, is it possible to definitively link these various events? We're seeing false bomb alerts, cyber attacks on supermarkets, on blood banks here in France, other various acts of disruption over the past few weeks specifically. Can we link this to a broader campaign of destabilisation across Europe as a whole? We certainly can. We shouldn't assume that every incident that happens is a result of Russian activities. But what we do know is that a number of these incidents have been attributed by Western governments in the targeted countries to Russia. So, for example, the drone incident at Leipzig airport a few weeks ago, the German authorities established that that was instigated by Russia. A number of cyber attacks have also been established were instigated by Russia, weaponization of migration along the Finnish and Norwegian borders also instigated by Russia, so and of course we have drone incursions that have also come from Russia. So we have a variety of different subversive activities very that have been where the Western governments, where the targeted governments much. have evidence that Russia was behind it. And that is what matters. You can speculate all you want, but when there is evidence, that is when this becomes a real concern, because then it raises the question of what to do about it. And is it possible to know what kind of evidence you might be referring to there and the kind of evidence that these investigators might be uncovering? We did hear from the French president, for example, saying today that it was too early to definitively link these attacks to Russia. But earlier in the week, the government came out and did link the supermarket fridge cyber attacks to Iran. So it's kind of difficult to know exactly what's happening here and how exactly various governments are dealing with all of this. Yes, it is. But what we do know is that in a number of cases where the actual perpetrators have been arrested, for example, a warehouse arson attack in Poland that destroyed the largest shopping mall in Poland, that attack and the attack at Leipzig airport that could have caused significant loss of human life. And it was just a miracle, really. Really, that drone didn't explode as intended. But for example, just as examples, in those two cases, the perpetrators were then identified by the authorities and subsequently linked to Russia through various pieces of communication. And what is also interesting, that in a number of cases where local petty criminals who carry out these kinds of attacks for Russia, where they've been arrested, they have then told the investigators that. They were recruited by somebody on Telegram who was then subsequently identified by the authorities as a Russian official. So we are getting all these pieces of evidence. What is the real target here then? Is it support for Ukraine or is it all about destabilising European institutions, attacking its infrastructure or really trying to target and focus in on public opinion, just making people, citizens feel that they're perhaps not 100% safe? It is causing disruption in our societies. And if you think about the way, the role that war has played in past centuries, that's... During those centuries, countries waged war because they needed more land, because they were agrarian societies. Today, we're not agrarian societies. Countries don't need more land, even though Russia seems to think that it needs more land, namely Ukraine. But what it does want and what it does need from its perspective is more power. It needs to increase its power at the expense of European countries. And the easiest way to do that is to constantly wage this dirty war against European countries using illegal and unethical means, because Russia knows that we are not going to use the same means back. So if you sabotage, if you set buildings on fire, if you target companies, and indeed Indeed, if you target individuals such as children, If Russia is indeed behind the bomb threats against all these schools, you cause enormous harm, you cause destabilization, you cause disruption, you cause financial loss, you cause fear, and there is really very much the target the country can do about it. And as you say, if the Kremlin is behind all of this, is part of the thinking as well, you know, a buildup of relatively minor incidents, is the thinking here that that could have a greater political impact than one single large-scale attack? It is the drumbeat of constant attacks in different ways. And I've been in this space now for many years. And it used to be there was essentially cyber disinformation, election interference. In the past couple of years, three, four years, we have seen an explosion, as it were, in this kind of activity. Lots of new areas. Also would have been unthinkable five years ago. Now we see it all the time. Drone incidents similarly and sabotage more generally. Yes, absolutely. It's disruptive each time, and by the way, it causes financial losses each time, which in many cases are borne by the companies that are affected. So they will then say, well, hang on, what is this? It's not viable to keep operating in whatever sector they are in. So it is an incredibly successful... And frankly, easy way of targeting other countries. It's also illegal. It's also immoral and unethical. But countries like Russia, and especially Russia, doesn't seem to be bothered by that. And Elizabeth, how do you go about deterring such attacks when they appear to be deliberately designed to kind of go under the radar of the level of an attack that would prompt some kind of military retaliation? It's extremely difficult. And I have to say, it's so difficult that when I wrote a book about these kinds of attacks, this kind of aggression a few years ago, I called it the defender's dilemma. It really is the defender's dilemma. Because you know it's real, you see it with your own eyes, your citizens experience it and suffer the consequences from it, your private sector, and yet, what are you going to do about it? You can't exactly say, well, if you hire criminals to set fire to our shopping malls... And our factories, we are going to hire criminals in your country to set fire to your shopping malls and your factories. That is not how European countries operate. So it's very difficult to to threaten retaliation because we are not the sort of countries that engage in this kind of behavior. What we can signal, though, is that we are resilient, that we can withstand these kinds of attacks and that we can bounce back. And European leaders, of course, meeting this week, the focus being on Ukraine, but it's a time for them to develop a more coordinated response because at the moment what we seem to be seeing is individual countries dealing with this and handling the fallout in their own way. That is indeed the case. And that is unsurprising, considering that some countries have been more targeted than others. Germany has been a particular target. Thank Spain, for example, not so much, although it can strike a hit anywhere. So Ireland, all of a sudden, has started experiencing. you attacks below the threshold of war, similarly Italy. very So it really can occur anywhere, any country can become a target. And I think in a paradoxical and almost perverse sort of much. way that it's not good news, it's terrible news, but it can bring European countries closer together because they are really... They are all in the same boat now, the members of the European Union and other European countries. And it's not just a matter of, let's say, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania suffering these attacks alone. It really can hit any country. And that, I think, will be conducive to a more coordinated response. And how do authorities respond, though, without creating unnecessary panic or anxiety or giving these attackers more publicity, Elizabeth? That is a dilemma, and for example, the UK government has struggled with it for a long time with precisely that question. Should we articulate these, should we talk about these attacks and these threats, or would that just cause panic? I think now the attacks are so in your face, they are so frequent, and they are so brazen that it would be naive not to talk about them. People hear about them in the news anyway. Anyway, and. So now governments have to. I think they don't have a choice but to talk about them. But I think they can talk about them in a, or the threat, the attacks and the threats in a productive fashion by saying, we all know that this is what's happening. Here's what we're going to do together. Here's what you can do as an ordinary citizen. Here's what the private sector can do. Here's what you can do as individual companies. And here is what the government will do. And so if you sort of assign different responsibilities, and I think everybody will feel that they They have, they can play a role. role in this and can play a role in reducing the harm that these attacks can cause. Elizabeth, we'll have to leave it there for now. Thank you so much for being with us on the program. That's Elizabeth Brough, columnist, author, and senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative.