Solar Flares And A Solar Storm February 3rd 2025!

James Kaufman with a news report today, February 3rd, not 4th. Sorry, guys, trying to get ahead of the curve there. God bless you and yours, no matter where you are in the world. Please subscribe, give us a thumbs up, ring that bell for critical future updates. We're looking out here at four of our KP indexes, and we've seen that we've been hit by something significant. In this case, it's going to be a coronal hole that was earth-facing with strong solar winds. Now we can first off take a look at today's boulder index with 12 hours of a geomagnetic disturbance followed by three hours of a geomagnetic storm tapering off after that nine hours of a disturbance here on the second but hey 12 hours the day before. Over to our Estimated Planetary KP Index, it looks like we've been busy with 15 hours of a geomagnetic disturbance today, and more than that yesterday, guys, 20 hours of a geomagnetic disturbance, and that's our go-to Estimated Planetary Index, the new upgraded index by NOAA, NASA. Moving down to our College Index, it looks like we've had a really big hit here with What looks like to be about 12 hours of a geomagnetic storm with at least six hours of a G2, G3 geomagnetic storm yesterday and some disturbances as well. Now, is this going to be what was predicted? You know, here is plasma. We're not going to see much plasma all the day. Uh, on the second here. Which is where we really are. We see plasma down here below 4. And down to about 2. And it went from 10 to 0. So they weren't even close. Kind of throwing ---- at the... And then look at their prediction here for our solar winds. They've got them popping up. Today would be the second. At just under 700 kilometers per second. And that's drifting off quickly into, say, the third. We're down to about 600 kilometers per second. I guess that's going to be a little bit, well, too much of a prediction as usual. Can they ever be anywhere close to right? I don't think so. Over to our Discover real-time solar wind satellite. We can see most of the day our shields have basically been southern facing. And what we see, plasma did go, well, this is three days we're looking at. Yesterday we saw some, well, mostly no plasma whatsoever, if you want the truth. And we did see a peak in solar winds yesterday at about 702, which is about what they thought might occur, and they have been, well. Moving their way down and we're much lower than they suspected here. They thought we'd ended the day about 600 kilometers per second. We're below, way below 500 kilometers per second. This is from the coronal hole that was earth facing. This is not a coronal mass ejection. There's no plasma supposedly involved with this. This is all under 10 centimeters cubed here, our space weather threshold. This was another impact several days ago. Headed over to Argos Solar Ultraviolet Imager 195 Thanks, Jim. You can see that coronal hole that's now no longer earth-facing. We also see all the activity coming from 3981. Looks like we just got another large earth-facing flare. I don't know if we have that coverage yet. These are very active sunspots with another coronal hole coming around the limb. And several active sunspots also coming around the limb here. And I do think we can see that activity out of 3981 here. The double whammy. And we're going to see how big this is. We have the actual readouts here. But going into today, this has been a very active sunspot we're dealing with. See, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, at least 7, maybe 8 strong M-flares. With the last couple of flares being some of the strongest. All right, over to SpaceWeatherLive.com. Taking a look at 3981. It went from a delta sunspot to just a simple alpha beta sunspot, not even not even beta gamma. So I've never seen this occur before. You can see it's still producing strong M flares as we just saw and I guess well the strong flare is going to be the M8.8 that was just produced as a simple a simple sunspot although there's going to be another M flare after that. That's in the 5 or 6 range. We have today a 50% chance of having an X-class solar flare, a 60% chance of having an M-class solar flare. Can't believe that sunspot AR3981 is not a simple sunspot. And then we're running a very strong C baseline, so that should be a 100% chance of having a C flare. The only other sunspot we saw get involved was 3977, let's take a look at both of those. When it's dark red it's Delta, that's Beta Delta Gamma, and when it's orange it's Beta Gamma, and when it's green it's either Alpha or Beta, very simple sunspot. Jumping over to HMI Intensigram, they've actually colored these for us, we can see that we have a Delta sunspot here. It's back to Delta, or either this is data information, these are all beta gamma, and these are simple sunspots here. The only two we've seen anything happen from was 3977 and 3981, which when this HMI intense gram was taken, was a Delta class sunspot, the most complex sunspot known to man. I'll show you a little bit different version, a little bit later version. There is 81 there. And it looks like 77 is over here with this mess here. And we have a total of two, four, six, eight, and several that need to be named sunspots earth-facing for our solar disk currently. Over to SDO HMI Magnetogram. Remember, in the northern hemisphere of the sun, it should always be white over black or positive over negative. That's not what we're seeing here. These are extremely complex sunspots. This is all negative over positive. We're not seeing a lot of complexity in the southern hemisphere, but these are, well, horrific-looking sunspot groups. Over at SOHO, 284 angstroms, that's that coronal hole that we just got through dealing with. It brought solar winds upwards of 700 kilometers per second. Which we did guess. Now we're dealing with a couple of earth-facing sunspots that, well, are at one moment complex and at the next moment not so complex. But keep an eye on this sunspot group. You can also see we have sunspots coming around the limb and departing the far limb. We have about eight sunspots earth-facing currently in our solar disk. Over to NOAA's warning about the R2 Radio 2 blackout. That's going to be the, I guess, the M8.8 solar flare. See what they have here. They've got an M5.1, so they're way behind the clock here. What a joke, we had an 8.88 after this occurred. They were calling out this because it was directly earth-facing. Well, we had a flare almost twice as strong in the current last few moments. Come on, guys, an M5.1? That was hours ago. Keep up, keep up, please. Jumping over to our D-region absorption prediction center, that's the M5.1 that they're so worried about. The problem is we had the M8.88 right here. The real problem. And it does not look that bad on film. I will say that. Lots of radiation pouring in on everyone. Enjoy your dosage. Your daily dosage here, right? Now, I believe NASA's only model, the M5.1 solar flare, going directly at Earth. That's the 5.1. There should be one right behind it about twice as fast and twice as big, the M8.88. Boom! Boom! Let's hope that that lets a little pressure off our sun right now. That was a, well, a large flare. And, hey, this was a CME that's going to actually hit Earth as well in around the 6th, in around the 6th, unless the other one speeds up and it turns into a cannibal coronal mass ejection situation, which just looks like, well, very well could happen. That said, God bless each and every one of you guys. Remember, we're in a solar storm because of a coronal hole, not because of a solar flare or any kind of coronal mass ejection. And also remember that it looks like we have at least two coronal mass ejections inbound, i.e. heavy plasma for Earth, on or around the 6th, the 6th. And we'll keep an eye out and try to give you all some better timing on that. God bless each and every one of you guys. Please give us a super chat. Buy us a cup of coffee. Let me say that seven days with the channel taken down for no real reason is nothing but a terrible situation for us to all be in. It's like our only ability to talk to the world without being censored is censored. 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