Putin dies, FSB general seizes power: he ends the war with Ukraine due to lifting of sanctions

Name: Putin dies, FSB general seizes power: he ends the war with Ukraine due to lifting of sanctions
Uploaded: 2026-11-13T19:17:43.956Z
Duration: 3 min 16 s
Channel: Kanal13

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The American think tank RAND modeled a scenario in which Russia freezes the war with Ukraine but attacks NATO in 2030. According to this scenario, Vladimir Putin dies in January 2027, and another former FSB general seizes power: he freezes the war in Ukraine, rebuilds the army, and three years later invades Estonia. The report's main conclusion: the threat to Europe stems not from Putin himself, but from the structure of Russian power. The authors emphasize that this is only one possible scenario, not a forecast. According to the scenario, Putin dies of natural causes, a power struggle ensues in the Kremlin, and by March 2027, a former FSB general becomes president. In April, he agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine, brokered by the US, UK, and European countries, in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions. Russia's goals in Ukraine remain unchanged, negotiations for a full-fledged peace reach a deadlock, and the war degenerates into a frozen conflict. Meanwhile, the army is regaining its combat capability. By January 2028, the new president begins purges, replacing Putin's allies with loyalists, but economic hardship and the consequences of military losses are causing unrest within the country. To bolster its authority, the Kremlin is launching a hybrid campaign against NATO, including disinformation about the oppression of the Russian minority in Eastern Europe. In June 2029, the US is distracted by the crisis in South America and reduces its military presence in Europe. By 2030, under pressure from the military elite, Moscow prepares limited military operations in the Baltic states to demonstrate that NATO is not united. In May 2030, Russia foments protests in Narva, Estonia, home to a large ethnic Russian population. When the Estonian authorities resort to force, the Russian president declares that they cannot be trusted to protect the security of Russians and deploys troops. The Kremlin's expectation that NATO won't respond proves false: the Alliance immediately invokes its collective defense clause. In June 2030, a full-scale war breaks out. Russia threatens Svalbard and northern Norway, its submarines attempting to break through to the North Atlantic. Moscow chooses the United Kingdom as its primary target: air strikes are launched against British air bases, ports, radars, and command and control centers, while sabotage and cyberattacks are carried out. By November 2030, having failed to achieve a quick victory, the Russian president declared the occupation of Narva and most of Ida-Viru County a victory and proposed a ceasefire to NATO. A ceasefire was signed, but peace negotiations dragged on for months. Based on the scenario, RAND provides UK authorities with recommendations on how to maintain stability in society, protect critical infrastructure, resist cyberattacks, prepare for war in space, mobilization and air strikes, use nuclear deterrence, and achieve an end to the war.

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According to this scenario, Vladimir Putin dies in January 2027, and another former FSB general seizes power, he freezes the war in Ukraine, rebuilds the army, and three years later invades Estonia. The report's main conclusion, the threat to Europe stems not from Putin himself, but from the structure of Russian power. The authors emphasize that this is only one possible scenario, not a forecast. According to the scenario, Putin dies of natural causes, a power struggle ensues in the Kremlin, and by March 2027, a former FSB general becomes president. In April, he agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine, brokered by the US, UK, and European countries, in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions. Russia's goals in Ukraine remain unchanged, negotiations for a full-fledged peace reach a deadlock, and the war degenerates into a frozen conflict. Meanwhile, the army is regaining its combat capability. By January 2028, the new president begins purges, replacing Putin's allies with loyalists, but economic hardship and the consequences of military losses are causing unrest within the country. To bolster its authority, the Kremlin is launching a hybrid campaign against NATO, including disinformation about the oppression of the Russian minority in Eastern Europe. In June 2029, the US is distracted by the crisis in South America and reduces its military presence in Europe. By 2030, under pressure from the military elite, Moscow prepares limited military operations in the Baltic states to demonstrate that NATO is not united. In May 2030, Russia foments protests in Narva, Estonia, home to a large ethnic Russian population. When the Estonian authorities resort to force, the Russian president declares that they cannot be trusted to protect the security of Russians and deploys troops. The Kremlin's expectation that NATO won't respond proves false, the alliance immediately invokes its collective defense clause. In June 2030, a full-scale war breaks out. Russia threatens Svalbard and northern Norway, its submarines attempting to break through to the North Atlantic. Moscow chooses the United Kingdom as its primary target, air strikes are launched against British air bases, ports, radars, and command and control centers, while sabotage and cyberattacks are carried out. By November 2030, having failed to achieve a quick victory, the Russian president declared the occupation of Narva and most of Idavera County a victory and proposed a ceasefire to NATO. A ceasefire was signed, but peace negotiations dragged on for months. Based on the scenario, RAND provides UK authorities with recommendations on how to maintain stability in society, protect critical infrastructure, resist cyber attacks, prepare for war in space, mobilization and airstrikes, use nuclear deterrence, and achieve an end to the war.