Mets Offseason Rumors: Skubal, Bullpen Help & What's Next? | Straight Outta Flushing

What's up, everybody? We're back here with Straight Outta Flushing's Dexter Henry, Tyler Ward, aka Wardy, and we have ourselves a special guest joining us today. It is our guy, Danny Abriano, formerly of SNY, fantastic writer covering the Mets, now has his new Substack. Danny, welcome to Straight Outta Flushing. Thanks for joining us, man. Thanks for having me. Good to be here. Yeah, man. Good to have you. I want to start with this because I know it's been an interesting week for you with everything that's going on, but you launched your Substack, which I was happy to see. And I reached out to you and said, you know, we'd love to have you on here. What can Mets fans expect? Know your work, know your voice. What can they expect from your new venture here on Substack? I'm still kind of working out what it's going to look like, figuring out how often I'm going to post, what those posts are going to look like. I will have something coming later today, so that should be up early this afternoon. So I'll definitely be updating it weekly, maybe biweekly, but it'll be analysis, it'll be opinion, it'll be reaction to things that are coming up here as the offseason, the short offseason, I guess, heats up. Well, it's obviously going to be very heavy Mets. Uh, once everything's established, I might kind of branch off and do some other stuff. But, uh, yeah, it'll be heavy Mets for now. Same stuff I did at SNY. Um, and yeah, I'm looking forward to, to getting that, uh, really built up. Nah, man. Uh, definitely looking, uh, forward to that. Speaking of your Substack. You wrote a piece this week about Tarik Skubal and how it's maybe a perfect storm for the Mets to land him, even though the Dodgers, they've been the team that everybody, you know, where they seem to get whoever they want. We've seen this for some time, right? The Dodgers seem to get who they want. But in your piece, which I thought was really good, you believe that this situation could be different for the Mets. So what makes you think that the Mets have a real shot at beating out L.A. this time? A whole bunch of reasons. I mean, if you read the piece, you see that the Dodgers have pretty much gotten whoever they've wanted. They got Otani, but Otani had no interest in the East Coast. They got Yamamoto, who the Mets went hard after, but he wanted to play with Otani. It's kind of like a domino effect there. They got Diaz, but something went haywire at the end of the Diaz negotiation. I understand that a lot of Mets fans think he just left because he wanted to leave New York. Everything I've heard, that's not the case. People in the Mets organization were shocked when Diaz left. That was not something they expected to happen, so that one kind of has an asterisk next to it. And as far as Shohei, he may love the Dodgers, he may love L.A. He may love the possibility of spring training in Arizona, but it takes two to tango, and if they're going to be offering him some kind of four-year high AAV deal, I just don't see them coming to an agreement. This is Boris we're dealing with. Boris takes his players' free agency for a reason. He wants a record deal, probably in terms of both AAV and dollars, total dollars, which would take it above $325 million. And then you just kind of get rational about it, right? I think a lot of the time people just aren't rational. They're looking at it and they're saying, all right, he wants to be a Dodger. Dodgers have a ton of money. Dodgers are kind of like the boogeyman. But if you really think about it, they've got an owner who's in the middle of a serious issue, accused of insurance fraud. He sold his stake in the Lakers. He's looking to sell the Sparks. He's looking to sell his F1 team. So you have that hovering above their head. I don't think there's going to be a salary cap. The players are just too dug in against it. But there's probably going to be stricter penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax. And the Dodgers books are not great. Just like quick. Quick math here. They've got about $388.4 million already committed for 27. The Mets only have $281.2 million. Looking forward, it's about $328 million. The Mets only have $192.2 million. The Mets' obligations dropped even further the year after that. The perfect storm for me is the situation the Dodgers are in. The Mets looking to return to contention. David Stearns kind of operating as if he's fighting for his job a little bit this offseason. The Mets having a glaring need at the top of the rotation and just being willing to do this. And yeah, it's not Stearns' M.O. to sign this top dollar, top free agent pitcher available, especially one who's entering his age 30 season. But I think he's going to get a bit of a nudge from Steve Cohen. I think the Mets are going to get it done. Well, look, he needs that nudge. We can all agree with that. One more thing for me, because I know Wardy's got some questions too here, Danny. Because we just went through the GM meetings, you just talked about Stearns and those wrapped up, and we talked about Schwell. David Stearns, when he talked to the media, he made it clear that improving the pitching staff is his top priority here. He made that clear. But did you come away, after everything you heard from him this past week, did you come away with a clearer understanding? I kind of feel the same as I did when he spoke right after the season. I mean, He understands that the rotation was left short in 25. It was left short in 26. They kind of tried to piecemeal it. They relied on too many bounce backs. I think he understands that that can't happen again. So, you know, same thing that I expected back, like right when the season ended, I'm expecting now. I expect an ace at the top of the rotation. And I expect some kind of second legitimate starter to add to that, whether it's via trade or free agency. He obviously hit on... I'm wanting to address first base, so we'll see how that shakes out. You know. Everything else is kind of set for them, except for the bullpen. But yeah, nothing really changed in my mind after hearing him speak. So, when we talk starters for a second, and we're talking about adding more than one, my first thought process was back to David Stearns' first year with the Mets, obviously, where he brought in Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. And thankfully, it really paid off in that year for both those guys, helping them both get respective paydays, even though Severino wanted to come back. He got that record-breaking deal for the A's, and then Manaea coming back at 375. Now, the Mets haven't approached the market the exact same since then, as we know, right? They, of course, acquired. At least like one starter each of the past couple off seasons. But just Freddy Peralta was clear that that was not enough of a needle mover, to say the least, for this rotation. So when we have this idea of the Mets adding more than one starter, even, you know, front of the platform Jim Duquette put out over the past 24 hours on socials, that, you know, he's firmly under the belief that the Mets and Stearns are casting a wide net, which you'd expect. To land multiple guys, again, through the free agent and or trade market. Danny, my question to you is, what about this time around? Do you maybe have a greater level of confidence in the Mets getting that done? As this is the same team that over the past couple of years has been essentially rumored or reported to approach the offseason eerily similarly. And as we know, they've fallen quite short in hitting the mark there. I think when you have two seasons derailed by your starting rotation, uh, your urgency kind of changes. Um, and you know, I mentioned a little while ago that, you know, the payroll situation really is pretty good for them. It's opening up. So, you know, even in a world where they get Skubal, um, I don't think it's impossible for them to then turn around and sign a Clay Holmes for three years, uh, sign a Michael King for three years, uh, you know, to spread the money around, um, or to like put yourself in an even better spot. Might make sense to call up the Mariners. And ask them about George Kirby, Gilbert, somebody like that. At the beginning of the offseason, I kind of thought the Rays might dangle Rasmussen. Now, from everything you're hearing from their front office, from their reporters, it doesn't seem that Rasmussen's going to go anywhere. I think that would have been a perfect fit. Because you could be able to really stack two aces at the top if you were to get Skubal and Rasmussen. But, yeah, I mean, you just think about it logically. Um, And listen to how Stern spoke at the end of the season. And he basically didn't guarantee anybody anything. Obviously, McLean will be in the rotation. Scott, if healthy, will be in the rotation. Beyond that, they kind of made it an open, up-in-the-air type thing. I mean, Senga's going to stretch out as a starter. I bet he's starting for somebody else. Um, Whenever the season starts, I just can't imagine the Mets relying on that. Thornton was impressive, but I think right now he's depth. Um, Minaya obviously had a very up and down season. I think he's in the rotation as your five if he shows that his velocity, um, is there. Uh, and he's productive, but I really think they're looking for two guys. Um, and then you fill that fifth slot with what you got internally. Now, to piggyback off that, and then Dex, I'm going to pan this to you after we go back to Danny here. There's a lot of different guys that make sense, obviously, in the trade market. I do think that should the Mets land two starters, it will be one via free agency and one via trade. Not that I wouldn't be opposed to a Skubal and a reunion of, say, Clay Holmes or really going all in on Michael King, because I think, you know, on paper, the Mets would have absolutely slammed dunk the offseason in that sense. So I'm all aboard it. But I think the trade market is where we're going to see David get creative again, as he did a year ago. He's obviously happy with how he's able to bolster the farm a bit post-traded line this year. And the Mets just have so much young starting pitching depth that I think that they will use to the right way in the sense of utilizing that like they did a year ago, where I think we'll have another Freddie Peralta 2.0 situation happen where the Mets trade away a younger arm that maybe doesn't have an immediate future here and an infielder or outfield prospect, probably infield given their depth right now, that could swing a deal for another guy on, say, a rental contract or two years left. I think of the Twins especially, not that I love the appeal with bringing in more guys from smaller markets per se, but just given the Derek Falvey connection and all that we've already seen at this point in this offseason, you would have to wonder how much tires would all have the Mets kicked on a Joe Ryan. If healthy, would the Mets consider a Pablo Lopez like they have in the past, or is that too much of risk over reward at this point in his career? These are things that I ponder. And when he talked to Schubely, the fascinating thing about him and these sweepstakes, I don't I don't know if you feel this way, Danny, but I've been telling Dex this and... This just feels so eerily similar to four years ago, the last time we were facing a lockout, and Max Scherzer was traded from the Nationals to the Dodgers. The Dodgers had their playoff run, but it fell short. They put in a valiant effort for him, but they weren't going to give him the dollars that was record-breaking to the degree that the Mets were. And the Mets, you know, led by, obviously, the record-breaking deal and a little bit of a sweetener knowing Scherzer was familiar with the NL East already, had a nice place in St. Lucie for him and his family that I think he just had or was working on at the time. Those things did benefit the Mets beyond the dollars, but as we fast forward four years later, we're hearing from Katie Woo at The Athletic that, oh, the Dodgers are pretty much not going to be going after anyone on a long-term deal this offseason in similar ways that they held back a couple years ago because they were preparing for their pursuits of Ohtani and Yamamoto. This feels like it's eerily similar offseason, barring changes. So if. Schubic doesn't go back to the Dodgers. It's not a guarantee that the Mets are going to land him. But I do think that's going to end up with the Mets as, you know, the top bidder in the end. And then either a team, you know, I've been really focused on the Angels with their new ownership group. Or are the Padres really going to get creative with their new ownership group? I'll have to wait and see, given all the desperate need that they have in their rotation beyond just one arm. But what's your thoughts on all that, especially in kind of how there's some overlap here from four years ago, the last time we faced a lockout situation and a Billy Eppler who also faced a good level of pressure, someone who didn't have a guarantee as to how long he was going to stay in his position as Mets acting GM at the time. Billy Epler, man, that feels like that was a hundred years ago. I know, right? Yeah, it does. It's actually kind of insane. Yeah, I mean, I think we're going to see something similar to what happened back during the last CBA negotiation. You're going to have this rush to sign guys, and players are going to want to know where they're going to be after the lockout. So, yeah, I expect a rush. I think everything we've seen is that Schubic expects to be signed before this. And you talked about other possible suitors aside from the Dodgers. I think about the Cubs, but they have to rebuild basically their entire rotation. We've already gotten some reporting out of The Athletic that the Cubs are probably not going to be in big on school bowl. Think about the Yankees, and we saw that one report, they were thinking about it. They were thinking about it. They're pondering. I'm just wondering. We've got an owner, Hal Steinbrenner, who came out and basically said he's in favor of a cap, which to me, given their market and given their spending power, is absolutely insane. But that's like a whole other podcast. And he's also on record the last couple of years saying you shouldn't have to spend $300 million to compete. So I'm going to write the Yankees off for Schubel. Google. Padres are interesting, but similar to the Cubs, they've really got to rebuild a lot of that rotation. They've got a GM who really wheels and deals and is kind of nuts, sometimes in a good way, sometimes in a bad way. I don't really think it's going to be the Padres. You think about the Angels, they're going to have big spending power, but that's still kind of not really set, right? That transition hasn't happened yet. They have no GM. They have no manager. They haven't made the playoffs in 11, 12 seasons. They haven't finished above 500 in over a decade. Um, so. So, yeah, I mean, process of elimination here, just speaking rationally here, it seems like the perfect storm is brewing, as I wrote. I wrote, um... Is there another team out there? Are the White Sox ready to do something totally nuts? Um... You look around the league, the Mariners, I really can't think of another good fit. The Diamondbacks are the only other team that I'm just somewhat thinking about because they don't make much big splashes, but when they do, it's mainly only for starting pitchers we've seen over the past 10 to 15 years, right? Whether it's the Greinke pursuits, the Corbin Burns pursuits, even to a certain degree because it was smaller at the time when they had Monty among others. They just, every number of years, they go after some big fish in the free agent market. There is Schubel being an Arizona native that I do wonder, even if they maybe don't chill out the years, I'm curious if they approach him at all on maybe kind of a short or middle-level deal that we find out when the dust has settled with someone like him. And that's like the one other team that I'm keeping an eye out for right now, just given the location and how they operate. I'm curious for both of you guys because, you know, you talk about the perfect storm, Danny, and all the noise. It seems like the Mets, our John Heyman said, the Mets are the favorites to land Schubel. Does that make you guys nervous at all that the Mets are the favorites? Because it's sort of an uncomfortable position for them to be in with such a big free agent pitching target like Schubert. It seems that pretty much everyone now thinks the Mets are the favorites except for a few national writers who I read recently who still think it's the Dodgers. Thank I mean, look, anytime you hear something, the Mets are the favorites, no matter where it comes from. You have to think, all right, who's leaking that out? Who's saying it? What is, right, what's the reasoning behind it? Are they trying to scare other teams? Are they trying to, like, say if the Mets don't get it done, they're going to look so much worse you. because they were viewed as the favorites? You have to wonder where everything's coming from. I think there's no reason to be scared about it because, look, Cohen has the money to do it. If the Dodgers really aren't going to go all in in terms of years, I think the most obvious landing spot is the Mets. So, yeah, I mean, that's the way I look at it. Yeah, no, I think that's more than fair. Okay, so we've talked about starters, guys, but the Mets, they've also been linked to some relievers, a bunch of relievers they've been linked to. Alex Vecchia, Tim Hill, you know, those are guys you think that could help Devin Williams at the back end of the bullpen. After everything that went wrong with the pitching staff last season, or I could say the last two seasons, if we're being honest here, how important is it for you, Danny, when you look at what David Stearns can do here to add another, I will say trusted, high leverage arm to go to the back of the bullpen? And of those names I mentioned, or others you can bring here, who would be your top target? I think it's really important. My top target would be Morahone if he wasn't attached to the QO. And that's the wrench right there. And it's really, really damaging, especially for a team like the Mets. If they were to sign a Morahone, they would get crushed when it comes to their draft pick situation. And given Stearns' nature and just... It's smart to not just destroy your whole draft. I'd be pretty surprised if Morajon wound up in Queens. You mentioned Vescia. I think that's an interesting option. They need another left-hander. Lavender was really impressive down the stretch. I'd like another lefty. We've seen them connected again to Brooks Raley, to A.J. Minter. I think of those two, if I had to choose, I would go with Raley. Minter was okay when he came back, but Pavillo wasn't really there. You kind of know what you're going to get with Raley. Uh, one who I really like is Jonathan Malizaga. Um, I do too. You know, there, there are people who are always going to be scared because of his injury issues and he's had a lot of stuff go wrong and he's had some stuff go wrong recently. Um, but he's just, if you look at his savant page, that thing lights up red. Um, he's still relatively young. Um, I don't think it's going to cost an arm and a leg to get him. Uh, so if I'm the Mets, I'm, I'm aiming for Malizaga. That's my top target. Uh, try to get him in here. And, you know, if you got somebody who can slide in for Williams, I think that's the best bet here. Yeah, there's a lot of really good reliever options when we take a time to not only break down the free agent market, but also the trade market, because that's something I think it's slept on a lot when we think of relievers each off season, because there's just so many different guys to choose from for different reasons. And the Mets have been able to take advantage of the trade market with relievers over the years, including their beloved, as I call them, old reliable Brooks Raley, when they got him from Tampa a couple of years ago for Sean Askew. You know, I think of the current climate of what we talked about with the following players and Really, I'm all aboard a reunion because I really do believe that he just didn't adjust well to the Phillies, and that's why he went from being nails to being a guy that wasn't even on their playoff roster. I think he just knew that, you know, it was in the best interest of all of us Mets fans if he didn't perform well in Philly, so I appreciate that. And until his arm basically falls off or, like, he just doesn't have it anymore, he's always going to be someone I'm going to welcome back in this bullpen because he's been so reliable. Minter is fun. He had a great stretch with the Mets, obviously. Obviously, like, didn't allow a single run his first 15 innings until... His old buddy, Matt Olsen, took him deep lefty-lefty. But given the velocity that we talked about and also just, I feel like Minter might just be best suited elsewhere. I know he had a nice time here, but I could see him going to a contender where maybe there's a little less chaos going on than it seemed like the Mets. I love Owazuka in the sense that this is a player the Mets have wanted for a couple years now. They fell short on their pursuits for him when he went back to the Yankees as well as this past year going to Arizona. You look, you know, it's the biggest sample he's had since 2021 in roughly 70 innings. Not a big swing and miss guy, obviously, but really effective when looking at his expected numbers, which really entices me because it shows you that it wasn't a fluke that we saw this past year and also pitching like that in half the year in Arizona where the ball can absolutely fly. That was even impressive to me. So I think a lot of my biggest appeal with him isn't track record in the sense of innings because he doesn't have it. You know, he struggled to stay healthy the last number of years. I don't think you can look at him as the end-all, be-all in adding your bullpen. I think you should shoot a little high there. But I think given the uncertainty in innings that you're going to get with someone like him, that's going to make him obviously more palatable to sign price-wise. And his experience in New York is what I love most about him, right? We think of David Stern's remarks that he shared over the past calendar year, which he should emphasize more of. And bringing in players that understand big markets, especially somewhere like New York. That's why we've seen such overlap. What former Yankees having success with the Mets most recently, guys? Like Luke Weaver, for example, Devin Williams to a lesser degree, but Devin was only with the Yankees for one season. Luke, at least this was his third year in New York at that time, so at least he has somewhat of a one-off, you could argue. But beyond them, for me, if it's not Adrian Morejon, because I think he is worth the QO, I understand how much that would hurt the Mets from a draft standpoint, and it's not like they have a top-five farm currently where it's very comfortable to make said move. But Morejon is someone that could be a lock to give them anywhere from 70 to 80 plus innings, even the next four to five years in their bullpen and doing it at a highly effective rate. And they don't have a profile like him in their bullpen. The Mets don't have a flame-throwing lefty. Currently, Nate Lavender is sitting in the low to mid-90s at best. And then if they bring in anyone from a mentor to a rally to even a Alex Vesia, who I think should be their main target in this conversation, I think that they should go all in on Vesia and Lozada if, say, Morejon is out of the cards here. But Morohone is the most polished option here, and that's why I'm definitely for pursuing him. But Vessia is the guy, separate from Wazuka, because even though he hasn't played in New York, just having that experience with the Dodgers the past five, six years, winning the championship phase one, a steady arm that sat right around north of 60 innings the past four or five years, and a guy who gets a lot of swing and miss for someone who even, yes, he walks guys at a four or five K per nine, pardon me, walks per nine. He still is affected to sub three career ERA so Vessia would be my top pick when looking at a lefty reliever. Wazuka's up there from a righty reliever, but I think you could also get a little bit more creative in the trade market if David Stearns has the appetite to do so. Dex, throwing it back to you, what players out of the ones we discussed today do you like most and why? Yeah, I like Vessia as a strong option. It's here too. Like Danny, I would have no problem with bringing back Brooks Raley here. I think, listen, we always talk on this show about Guys who we know can pitch in this market, right? Right. Having a guy that you know can pitch in this market, knows this stuff, knows how to work with the staff, familiar with the organization, I think that's a good thing for this team when you're trying to rebuild this bullpen. So as you're also trying to mix in young arms, right? We talked about how, Danny, you talked about how you like Lavender and how he pitched. Wardy and I talked about that. We liked his stuff. We liked his makeup. The fact that he was in tough situations down the stretch where you saw that he, at least it appeared. Again, you haven't seen these guys pitch. In a pennant race, you haven't seen him pitch in very high-pressure situations. But I think having vets like Brooks Raley around, like a Vessia, even Loaiza, I like, too. Injuries, it's a risk with the injury. But look, it's a risk all the time with these relievers. Because one-year reliever can be great. The next year, he cannot. It's very fickle, right? But I think you want to make bets with guys that you know can pitch in this market. that has stuff that can get guys out in tight situations. And so those guys hit the profile. So if it was me, Vescia at the top for me as well, too. Have no problem with bringing back A. Raley. Would I make a risk on a Loiza? On the right deal, yes. I'd be absolutely fine with that. So yeah, for me, that's it. Listen, here's the thing. The Mets have done a pretty good job with the bullpen the last couple of years. And then you had to like the fact that even after they traded rightfully, as they should have, All the arms they did out of the pen last year because they needed to go get some assets, they did a good job in giving young guys opportunities where you've seen Stearns and company mix and match guys in the bullpen. Something I've liked about how they've handled it, hey, a guy doesn't have it, we'll send him down. We'll have him work on some things. We'll bring up a young arm here, give him some opportunities. I think if they keep that same energy, for lack of a better term here, I think that can be good for them going forward and building their back end of the bullpen. Would I like another Maybe a higher leverage arm here, you know, like A. Marone. Yes, but you can't play with the QO and you can't risk the draft. You can't risk the draft pick stuff that'll impact the Mets. You don't want that to happen either. No, in a perfect world, he would be the answer. I'm with you on that, Danny. He would be the guy you want to go get Matt to the back of this bullpen, where I think the three of us would all be like, man, we feel really good about that. But I think if you can get arms like the ones we mentioned, you can't go wrong. Tim Hill, you know, I threw him in there lower on my list of guys I would want here. um Would I be mad if they got him? No, I wouldn't be mad, but he's not at the top of the list is what I'll say there. Not at the top of the list. Yeah, Tim, I'm sorry to cut you off, Dan. We've seen a lot of Mr. Hill, is all I'm saying. Yeah, I think there's a reason why everyone I've talked to on Tim Hill, we've all had this collective reaction about like... you. Thank you, but no thank you. He has that fun release point, kind of, you know, a little bit of a side arm of a lefty. But he was giving up home runs at almost two home runs per nine this past year. And I just don't think it's justified. I think you're getting him mainly because of the fact that he can eat innings because he's handled New York fairly well. But as he's continuing to age, you're seeing the decline start to show, too. And I just don't really see how a profile like that. It's feasible for the Mets, besides the fact that he could give you, again, 60 or 70 innings next season. I mean, good mustache, though. Tim Hill's got a really good mustache. Great mustache. So he has that going for him. But, no, you talk about building the bullpen, and something that got lost last year, and it's understandable why it got lost, given the way the season went. David Stern has put together a really good bullpen. He dealt from that bullpen to restock the farm system. And then he somehow put together a bullpen that was pretty much just as good after all those guys were gone. So, like, you know that they have some faith in Lavender. You know, Denell Nunez looked good down the stretch. I think there are pieces here. I don't think you need to go out and get... Two, three, four guys. It's probably not in Stearns' DNA to go and get two or three arms for the bullpen that cost. 8, 9, 10 million a year. You get a guy who's like really up there, 13, 14, 15. If you want to do outside the box, you can call the Brewers and see if they want to trade their closer. Closer. Trevor McGill, you know, hasn't pitched in New York, obviously. Get Julian on the phone. Come on, do whatever it takes. His brother has. But I mean, the Brewers typically, guys get close to free agency, a year out, they typically listen. A lot of the time, they deal. You know, Stearns obviously has a connection with the people who still work in Milwaukee. I'm walking. So if you want to think about that, I mean, it could make sense to call up Milwaukee, see what it would take for Trevor McGill, have somebody come in here who can take over immediately, make Williams the eighth inning guy, which I think is a better spot for him anyway. Anyway, um... But, you know, is it likely? Probably not. Um, but that's what I would kind of, kind of aim for if I'm Stearns, aim high first. Um, but again, Dexter, like you mentioned, I mean, things are sporadic in the bullpen. There, there are very few guys who you can rely on year over year for strong performance. There are a handful of guys you can rely on year over year for elite performance. Um, even Evan Diaz, we saw it last year, uh, leaves the Mets as a terrible season with, with LA. Um, you just never know what you're getting from relievers for the most part. Um, so, you know, Stearns should get credit. I mean, he gets a lot of crap for a lot of things and a lot of it's deserved, but he should get credit for being able to really dig in, build a good bullpen. and I think he'll do it again. Yeah, he should get credit for that. No, there's no doubt about that. Now, something I wanted, I want to talk to you guys about, we talked a little about this before we started recording. Second base. Now, this week at the GM meeting, David Stearns, he said second base is in a position the Mets are actively looking to upgrade. Despite what we all saw from Wardy's boy, Marcus Semien, this year, finishing in the bottom of the baseball offensively last season. I guess two-part question for me, Danny, to you, and I will let Wardy wax poetic about his boy, Marcus Semien. How much... Faith. If there is any faith, should the Mets have in 36-year-old Marcus Semien? Bouncing back. Like, right, there's going to be some people out there that are going to say, hey, hey guys, they'll say to the three of us, he can bounce back here. I personally would not go there, but some people may, right? How much faith, if any, should people have in him bouncing back? And is Stearns making a mistake by what he said? And I think you could read into a little more of what he said by not prioritizing that position, which some fans would love to see him prioritize and upgrade that position, however that may be. Do you think he's making a mistake by saying what he said this week? I mean, are we assigning a percentage of what we think the odds are of Semien bouncing back? Yeah. Yes, I'd love to hear the odds. Sure. You could, 17%. I mean, you could... You can see when the Mets initially made that trade. You just referenced his wRC+ last season. What did you do? Was that really it? Was that it? No, no, but I know it's not good. It's not good. We know it's not good. It can't be that low. Well, um, no. No, look, the Mets made this trade to get out from the final two years of Nemo's contract. And it made a lot of people angry. Nimmo was a fan favorite. I understand why they did it. If I had to go back in time, I would probably still do it again. Um Nimmo is slipping offensively. He's way below average defensively. Hopefully, you know, You know, the thing with Semien is you can see this coming. You can see the last two years before he came to the Mets, you can see him slipping. But the defense was still great, right? The gold glove in '25, I think. you. The big issue here is that it all went at the same time, right? And you look at the first couple of months of last season, he was playing through a bit of an injury. You know, you wondered if that impacted his range, just hurt him overall defensively. And when he came back, he did perform a little better for a little while, and then he just reverted to that guy again. Not great defense, not much providing any kind of a spark at the plate. Yeah, I wouldn't read a ton into what Sterling said, right? Like, a lot of this is going to be GM speak. Um, So at the end of the season, he kind of said that Semien absolutely. is not guaranteed to be the starter going into next year. I don't think anything has changed since then. You know, when it comes to going out and getting somebody for second base. I don't think the Mets really need to. Even if they don't think there's a chance Semien's going to rebound, you've got Jeff McNeil, you've got Mitch Voit, you've got Emilian Petrae. Obviously, Rojas, I would think, is at the top of that list for somebody who can make an impact right away in 27, or maybe in May, maybe in June. Again, if the season happens, hopefully it will. Well, but. But, yeah, I think that's their plan here. I think the plan is you bring Semien to spring training, you see what he's got. If he looks good, you start him. If he plays well, you keep it going for a bit. But he's the same guy he was last year. I think we'll just replace him with a Rojas, maybe a Voight. If Petrie is somebody who they'd rather have up contact ability, then you go with Petrie. But I think they have enough in-house options that you kind of just let this thing play out. I hope we see some of those young options. That's my hope there. Morty, go ahead. Sorry. You know how much I'm chomping at the bit of talking about my boy Marcus Simeon here. Let me try to cram it all in. No, jokes aside, listen, we've talked at great length, Dax, you and I, over the past number of months now about Simeon's future and why both you and I are very much under the firm belief that's in the best interest of the organization to DFA him outright or at absolute, you know, if it's not going to be that, then, you know, at worst, okay, make sure that he's in a limited role. You know, we understand the tie down with north of $15 million committed over the next two years. And while the Mets have, of course, want the Robinson Cano route with Robinson Cano a couple years ago where they cut that dead weight at second base. And I do think that there should be overlap all these years later here with Simeon, given the uncertainty of probably not having a spring training that could either benefit or hurt Simeon here and how the Mets approach him, right? There's a school thought, which is okay. You know, like, let's be realistic here. We're probably not going to have a spring training, right? You know, hopefully we have a full season. If not, maybe just a slightly shortened one. There's going to be a quick ramp up of like a two to three week window for players to get ready. And then, bam, you know, the season is going to be beginning. And for Simeon, you know, especially if he doesn't have really much ramp up time outside of his own personal training, this is a guy that could get runway and hurt the Mets the first couple months of the year, especially if he is really dragging his feet. But the Mets need to see what they still have in him because of the fact that he's still, you know, contractually a guy that they're somewhat focused on. Or it could go the other way, where given the fact that there will be less of a spring training, maybe less, you know, of an ability to just get up and at him, that you're going to see him hurt because of it. And the Mets prioritize the kids that maybe look, you know, young and exciting right away as soon as camp begins. You know, Rojas, you know, we heard Stearns speak so glowingly of over the past year or two. And that's where, Danny, you know how we talked about GM speak? That isn't as much GM speak as that's genuine speak. Because you can tell in the way that Stearns will talk about specific players and the way that he lights up. And the reason is, is he talking about a player maybe to either juice their value a bit, or is he talking about them because he actually sees them having a future? And his emphasis on him being a bat-first player, seeing the smile that Stearns had when talking about him, it felt genuine there. And similarity to how he's talked up Carson Mengia. An offseason ago. So I fully anticipate that the Mets do hopefully have the answer to second base internally. One of Rojas, a Petrie who I think is the most polished bat to impact the Mets at the major league level right away. But Rojas, I think, has the best upside of the group. And Voight is this unique one where he skyrocketed so well down the stretch when he got to the Rebel Ponies that, you know, it would be foolish if the Mets didn't consider him in the mix as someone the first half year if he continues to play out the way that he does, just because he's such an uber athletic talent as well. So, I think what will happen here, and Dex, I want to hear your thoughts on this. Should the Mets not DFA Simeon the way that you and I would like, going into the year when Marcus is still on the roster, hopefully more of a limited role where, say, he's off the bench, mainly facing left-handed pitching in times where it's needed. Because, again, you're grasping at straws as to him, even as a defensive replacement late in the game, making sense, or even as a viable base runner besides him being at best league average. So, I don't love the idea of Simeon having any role on this team, but if he's going to, okay, defer him to the bench. More often than not. And then the Mets really feel like they're falling short at second base per se. If Beatty's still in the organization and he's not performing the way that they want, and maybe the young guys just didn't take that next step the way that they initially hoped, that's an area where they could address on the trade line, should they wish. You know, especially if there is going to be, say, a rental second baseman or shortstop that profiles better at second available at said deadline. You know, so I think the Mets may not need all the answers there right away. Because they have enough options, I think, to toy with the first half of the season where I don't think we'll be overly upset about it as a fan base as long as they give the kids some ample runway the way that we're anticipating them to get. Yeah, so what I'll say is when I hear both you guys talk about it too, where I am on this is, if it was up to me, I would not be bringing Marcus Semien back. But it's not my money and I'm not asking you to eat all that $50 million over the next two years. But, with that being said, You have to have a plan. That's what I would. And I understand we're not going to get this fully laid out, but I think you want to see that there is a plan. Okay, Marcus Semien is going to be there at spring training, whatever the hell that's going to be. And. Are you going to give these kids a legitimate shot to win the job if he looks terrible in the spring training? Or are you going to have a plan to keep them ready that if he starts the season and maybe you're doing the platoon with him and Beatty at second base, that, okay, hey, we're two, three weeks in, he's not hitting. Danny, you mentioned it. He damn sure is not giving you anything on defense either. And I'm also with you, Danny, that when the trade was made for Brandon Nimmo to get Simeon, I was for it. Because you saw the decline, as you noted, with Brandon Nimmo. And he was like, OK, this is a cost-cutting move. I see the long-term play. I got it. All that, right? But now, where we are, and you're looking at Simeon, you got to have to be a plan that if he's not able to bounce back, air quotes for those listening. What's the pivot move here? Are you going to let a young kid come up and flourish, right? Whether it's Petrie, if you say, hey, we've got a guy who can put in the lineup, he profiles as a great contact hitter, we love the low strikeout rate for him. All right, we want to give him reps. Go give him reps because I would rather see that. Then try to run Marcus Simeon out here for extended time, and we all know that it's not working. We don't need to see much more of that. We don't need to squeeze to get every last drop out of it. No, we don't. The money is spent. The money is spent, right? Right, it's a sunk cost. You're not getting it back, so there's really no reason to double and triple down, and I don't think they will. I mean, I just don't. Yeah, and that's my thing. Don't double and triple down, and if you're going to— I personally like to see one of these young kids get a shot, Not a legitimate shot. You know, some people might say, well, what about Brett Beatty? I will say, what about Brett Beatty? We know Stearns. We know Stearns loves him. He talked him up at the end of the season. Um, you know, you. I like his versatility. Right, of course. You saw what Beatty did at the end of the year. But again, and this is something that Stearns even alluded to, and he mentioned that he understands, he hasn't done it consistently. And it's been... It's been a half decade, so if he's going to do it, it's been a half decade. It's been 15 starts, some of it, but if he's going to do it, now's the time. I think regardless, Beatty's a nice fit as kind of a super utility, can play all over the diamond type guy. I would not be going into the season relying on him as any kind of long platoon guy at second base. He would be on my bench. There's also something to be said about Beatty's most recent success the last two years. Of course, happening in the second half of the year, after the year was already kind of dwindling down for the Mets, right? From June onward in 2025, I mean, they were like, what, 10 to 15 games below .500? So then what we saw this past year, you know? So one does have to wonder with Beatty, does he thrive with the lack of expectation? You know, there are players that are naturally like that. His first real breakout year here was awesome, when we saw him really kind of, you know, that Vientos as more of your hot corner option. Doesn't change the fact, though, that, again, he did that with that lack of pressure. So that's the main thing that I'm looking at, not only for Beatty, but for a lot of players for the Mets as we get into next year with Andy Green, okay? Because, again, it was a lot of fun in the second half this year. It was nice to see a team play relatively balanced and play like that they're loose and play like a team that doesn't feel like they have the pressure weighing on their shoulders as a New York team typically does. But they need to try to find a way to get to that loose approach without it being detrimental to them, obviously, playing too loose. Because it is obvious, and I'd love to throw this back to both Danny and Zach, to you guys, your opinion on it. Since Steve Cohen has become owner, there has been this continued trend of this Mets team just not meeting expectations in the sense that every year when they've had an expectation to either make playoffs or have a deep run, they have fallen so short. Like if we just break down the timeline briefly here, 2021, very excited, right? Everyone's like, oh my God, we have a new owner. He's going to spend big. Like this is cool. We didn't really know if we were going to make playoffs or anything like that. We're just happy to be here. And that was the case as the Mets fell short that year. But a lot of injuries in the roster that was poorly constructed. You know, that was brought in for acting GM at the time, Zach Scott. Then we get to 2022. The goal is to make playoffs. Can the Mets make playoffs? They have, like, the best first half out of all teams in the National League, right? They're looking awesome, playing small ball under Buck Showalter with, you know, very kind of boop and blast type mentality. And then we saw them fall short so bad down the stretch as soon as they started facing adversity from August onward. They had, like, literally one of the easiest strength of schedules in baseball and took no advantage of it, played 500 ball. Marte goes down with injury in Pittsburgh against Keller. And, you know, that was basically it. Mets get obviously hosed in Atlanta, lose the division, get hosed in a wild card by the Padres. We get a 2023. Verlander's in. DeGrom's out. You bring in Tommy Pham. You make some different moves. And the goal is to not only make playoffs, but to have, you know, another big year. Because you just had 100-plus wins in 2022. So why wouldn't you have? A big year in 2023, and they failed miserably to meet that expectation, obviously. We get to 2024. Okay, can the Mets go back to being a playoff team again? That is the hope here, even though there's uncertainty. And how did they get themselves the run that they had in 2024? It was after literally everyone and their mother, every writer, reporter talking it, and everyone alike wrote them off after falling as bad as they did to begin that season. You know, it took them so long to obviously get to above 500. But their run was clearly in hand with the fact that that was a team that was written off and didn't face the pressure that they were at the inception of the season with Mendoza beginning as manager. Then we get to 2025. Again, another year where the expectation is to make playoffs. You know, you, of course, have Juan Soto in the mix now. That's very exciting. And you're hoping nothing short of a deep playoff run. And as we know, the Mets just completely collapsed from June onward. They had no clue how to handle the pressure. They didn't adjust well, regardless of shortcomings on the roster. 2026, we all just saw what happened there when it comes to not hitting expectations. And now we are here in 2027. So to start with you, Danny, what do you think needs to change about the mentality inside and outside the clubhouse for the Mets to find some form of balance, regardless of the fact that they're playing in such a pressure cooker, that being in Flushing, Queens? Well, first off, I think everything you just outlined is part of the reason why the core was blown up, right? So you have people who are understandably attached to these players. They're attached to Alonso. They're attached to Nimmo, to Diaz, to a lesser extent McNeil. But you see all of that late-season failure. And I don't view 2022 as negatively as some people do. They didn't play great down the stretch, but they played a couple games over .500. They really, really just did not have anything in Atlanta, and that doomed them, and that was it. Um, you know, 2023 went haywire, there were injuries, there was underperformance 24 was great. 25 was this kind of slow burn of a collapse that I had never experienced before. Um, like 2007, 2008, those happened in September. Those happened late, man. And Those teams had flaws. The 2025 team, there's no reason why they should have been as bad as they were for basically a four-month period. So after 2025, you see the core get blown up. Yep. Um, And as somebody who was in the clubhouse every single month last year, you can feel, and I don't want to say it's the pressure being off, you can feel a looseness to them after those trades were made. So in September, being in the clubhouse, there were more players in there. They were joking around. They were watching TV. There was music playing. It was definitely more of a fun, relaxed vibe. Part of that could be there's a lot of younger guys in there. Um, part of that could be they're playing better, the chicken or the egg thing, right? So you just, you just don't know. Um, and even if you speak to guys, you don't know if what they're telling you is what's actually happening, right? Um, so it's really difficult to get a, to get a full grasp on that. Um, but I think the more young players you have in that clubhouse, the more guys who come up through the organization, through the minor league system who know each other. Um, I think one thing they're still lacking is a true leader. Um, they don't really have that, right? Soto is that quiet, lead-by-example guy. Takes guys under his wing, but he's not going to be the rah-rah guy. He's not going to be the one to stand in front of reporters like Lindor is, right? So Lindor, who obviously was somebody who we thought might be the next captain here until Cohen came out and said there won't be any captains, I think he's a leader, but I don't think he's the type of true clubhouse leader that can unite all the guys. So it'll be interesting to see what emerges there. Does Benj become that guy? Does somebody who's not in the clubhouse yet become that guy? Where does Andy Green become that guy? That's the whole point. And that's a good point because he's a totally different kind of manager than Mendoza was. And no offense to Mendoza, but I think Green does a much better job holding people accountable. Like, Like Mendoza was very communicative with his players and Green is communicative. I think Green challenges them more. He'll say things in front of the media that may raise an eyebrow. Wow. Um, and. And you don't need to do that. But that gets back to your players. It sends a message. Um, so. So, yeah, I mean, it's an interesting dynamic in that clubhouse. I think we're going to see some big names added to it this offseason, and we'll see how that shakes out. What about you, Dex? Sorry, guys. Can you hear me? Yeah. Yeah, my camera keeps overheating, like in my building. They've turned up the heat for the first time, and I think my roof... I got to crack the door. This camera will overheat, and it'll shut off, so I have to switch the battery out. It's okay. We can pick up. Don't worry, because we have all... It's all single records, so they can cut that out. Don't worry. It's not a big deal. Yeah, no. I was just referring it back to you if there's anything you want to share on... That's, again, where they've kind of fallen short on... I'm going to pick it up off of what Danny said real quick. Perfect. And then I got one more question, and we can wrap. Awesome. All right, cool. All right, we'll pick it up here. Three, two, one. Yeah, look, I think, Danny, you make a lot of good points about what you saw in the clubhouse last year. And these are some of the same things I've heard from other people who are around the team, including our Mike Puma here. I think having a relaxed environment matters. I think the key to some of what you're talking about is, okay, how do you build on that, right? Because we've seen good vibes around this team before. You guys both mentioned 2024, but you haven't seen that sustained good vibes, right? And sometimes I think that is the mix of having the established veterans with the young players that are bringing in that new energy. Now, something I've liked, I don't know how you feel, Danny, about this too, was... One of the things I do think was positive from this past season was the influx of youth, was seeing A.J. Ewing and Carson Bench and their impact, and also letting those guys grow through their mistakes at the major league level. And obviously, Carson Bench having a really good year, Nolan McLean being really impressive on the mound as well, too. So I think all those things matter. It's just the good vibes can only continue if you get off to a good start next season. And can that then continue? I do think. With the new manager they have, I do think that I'm very intrigued to see how he handles expectations because it's going to be very different for him managing than he was at the end of last year. So I think the players are going to feed off of that. If he is level-headed and fine and is still loose, I think this will bode well for this team. If not... They're going to feel some of the pressure because the front office is going to feel the pressure. Steve Collins is feeling the pressure. We all know this. The fans want this badly. It's been 40 plus years since the Mets fans have seen a World Series title. It's time, so we'll see if they can build upon that. Last thing I'll have before we wrap here. Danny, I want to see if you can give me a prediction. When we get to December 1st, because we think things are going to ramp up here for free agency. Guys are going to want to know where they are. Do you expect the Mets to have made a major move that changes their outlook for 2027, or do you think Mets fans are going to be Let's say heading into a potential lockout, still waiting for David Stearns to make that big move. What do you think happens? Big move or Mets fans still going to be waiting? I'll give you something very specific. All right. It'll be Tarek Schubel on November 23rd. That Thanksgiving Eve? Yeah. Is that Thanksgiving Eve? So people will be out getting smashed. No, it's actually the Monday. The Monday before Thanksgiving. Sorry about that. If people want to get smashed that Monday, they can do that. That's fine. Eight years, $352 million. That is going to be the deal. Eight for $352. That is a nice early Christmas gift. Here's a question, Danny. Is there a signing bonus with this that gets it to north of four? No, I think, no, I think, I think a 352, I mean, you look at the Yamamoto deal, right? So he's, he's going to eclipse that, um, 352 would be a 44 million AAV. So he would eclipse both the top AAV ever the top overall dollars. Um, I don't think you need a signing bonus with it, right? Like 352 million. That's. I'd be happy with it. I'm happy with that, too. I'm just thinking from the standpoint of if the Mets signed him to a deal like that, then I think that's a great sign that they probably didn't get in too much of a bidding war then, obviously. Obviously, right? Because. That's been the one counter that I've had to the thought behind, oh, the Mets would have to at minimum spend for, there's even some projections going as high as $500 million. I'm like, yeah. Give it a go. If they're really in a thorough back and forth with, say, the Dodgers, different than what we were initially thinking, Sure. Maybe that's something that could happen. Otherwise, it feels like they're kind of already in a position where they're somewhat bidding against themselves. And we know David Stearns is not going to be the type to do that if he doesn't need to do that. So for better or worse, that I think definitely makes sense. And I'm all aboard a Tarik Skubal contract sub 400 million because I've been very locked on that will happen. That will be the expectation. I like that. I like that you gave a prediction where you gave an exact number and a date. You don't use a number and a date? That one just, yeah, I just randomly did that. I wasn't going to do the date, but it just felt right. Good vibes. Well, hopefully good vibes around there for the Mets fans. Everybody, that is Danny Abriano. Please check out his Substack. We're going to post it in the comments for you to check it out. Does a fantastic job covering the Mets. Danny, we'll definitely have to have you back. And I just want to say, I know for myself and Wardy, we know you're going to have tremendous success with what you do. And we love your work. And we'll definitely have you back. Appreciate you, man. Really appreciate you guys. Thanks so much. No problem. Thank you, Danny. For the great Tyler Ward, whose boy really is not Marcus Semien. I'm glad you clarified that right after 60 minutes in. How sweet of you, Dex. All right, go ahead. Listen, I'm trying to be nicer for the holidays. I'm trying to be nice. I need Danny to know I'm nice too. You've always been nice to me, Dex. Always, man. A wonderful guest, Danny Capriano. I'm Dexter Henry. We'll catch you next time, another edition of Straight Outta Flushing. Peace, everybody.