The Cowboys are about to put the NFL on notice...

This has massive implications for the Dallas Cowboys. They are 4-5 and they'll host the 49ers this Sunday, a team that is 7-1 and a huge test as their first in the NFC. One model simulates the rest of the season gives Dallas a 50% chance to make the playoffs with a win and a 25% chance with a loss. So a single game is worth 25 points of playoff odds against a team that has lost just one time this season. Dak Prescott said it himself, it's a great opportunity to do it against a 7-1 team, and it just so happens to be the Niners. Dallas can win this game, and I will show you how. Now first though, we gotta look at who's actually gonna be on the football field. Joey Porter Jr. tried to practice Friday on a foot he says is jacked up, and he is the one name that is going to matter the most come Sunday. Now, he did not practice Thursday and Friday. He tried to, but didn't get to. Now, with the decision coming on Sunday, we're about 36 to 48 hours out. And right now, he's expected to be listed as questionable. In his own words, the whole foot is jacked up. He tweaked it against Houston and kept playing on it until it got worse and worse, which is not what you want to hear. Now, Schottenheimer does say he is confident and important to play adequately, even without a week's worth of practice. So, just because he doesn't practice doesn't mean that he's not available and he won't be able to play to at least a decent extent. George Pickens is the other one, and his answer on whether he is good was to tell people to turn on the TV and you'll see him on the field. Now, of course, that's a joke, and if you want the full quote, well, he said that your wives and girlfriends can turn on the TV to watch him. But still, he looks like he's good. He's running routes on Friday, and Schottenheimer said that he looks great Thursday. Now, running back, Schottenheimer says it's going to be Israel Abankanda, who is going to get the practice squad at elevation. He'll be RB2 on Sunday. If you want a full report on him, check out our most recent video talked about that. Now, tight end Jake Ferguson hurt his left knee in Indianapolis and did not return. He is expected to be out for multiple weeks, so look for Brevin Spann Ford to be there and probably look for a practice squad elevation of one of the tight ends the Cowboys have. Now, the 49ers, they are not healthy either. Left tackle Trent Williams missed Friday with a shoulder that he hurt on Thursday, so he is somebody to watch moving forward. Quarterbacks Renardo Green and Diabador Lenore were back at practice Friday, and Mike Evans, who has an Achilles issue, is quote-unquote getting real close per Kyle Shanahan. Now again, their official designations have yet to land with the final report when recording this video, so it's not a list that we have right now, but check it tonight. And Cal Shee, well guess what, they already got a number on the Niners and Cowboys before the injury reports. As right now, they have the Cowboys at 35% to beat the 49ers on this Sunday. Cal Sheaf, of course, is today's sponsor. On Cal Sheaf, trading directly against other users, not the house, like a traditional sports book. You're buying yes or no contracts on the outcome of real-life events across sports, politics, or even the weather. Now, for example, I'm going to trade on Brevin Spamford to score a touchdown. Remember, Jake Ferguson, he's going to be out of this game. So, BSF, he's going to get the nod as the tight end one. I think he scores. An $80 trade pays out over $340. So, pretty good payout. And if you're interested in trying out Kashi and using that pick, well, guess what? Pick the link in the description or in the pinned comment. And when you click on that, new users who sign up with the code DIGESTNFL and trade $25 will get an extra $55 instantly added into your account. Thank you to Kashi for sponsoring today's show. Now, here is where Dallas stands. 4-5, second in the NFC East. And after a loss by the Giants last night, they're 5-3-1. So, they're a game and a half back of them in this division. Now, again, the books they have. San Francisco has about four-point favorites. Couch's 35% matches the 36% model that gives Dallas a chance to win the game. Dallas has not won back-to-back games all season. And Dak knows it. If he wants them to go out there and do it, he's going to have to be the catalyst for the first time this year. In the last three games, they show what kind of team this is. 38-21 win in Philadelphia, offense looked great. Then you go back home, you face off against Arizona and let down. 33-30 with a loss there. A 27-23 win in Indianapolis, although a scary one, they get it done. Now, Indianapolis, they outgained the Colts 508 yards to 271, and yet they still needed a last-minute touchdown to win the contest. One model has Dallas at just 34% chance to make the playoffs, which is the question that this whole game is going to answer for us. Now, that gap is why this team is both dangerous and frustrating, and it leads straight into the keys. The running game is going to get less attention than Dak and Lamb, but it carried Dallas the last time they were able to win big. Javante Williams ran for 25 times, 155 yards, and a touchdown in the 38-21 win in Philadelphia on October 27th. At Indianapolis, he had 20 carries for 101 yards, and of course, the one-yard touchdown with a minute eight left that sealed it. Now that is two of the four wins this season with Williams rushing for over 100 yards, so it tells you Dallas' chances if he can't get there. As for RB2, that's Abankanda who's going to get called up off the practice squad according to Schottenheimer with a normal elevation. Tyler Goodson out this game, and it'll be the first of multiple weeks that he'll miss after suffering an MCL and ACL sprain in the Colts game. Now that matters, of course, because the back who keeps the clock moving, well, they're going to keep Purdy on the sidelines. And Dallas, they've got 508 yards in Indianapolis without ever controlling the finish. Now, if Williams gets a full workload, the offense can mix the run in on first down and use Pickens and Lamb on the play action throws. Now, three keys to Sunday, and the first is finishing. Against the Colts, Dallas led 17-7 at halftime, then watched Indianapolis get to a 23-20 lead with a minute 37 left. The Cardinals game, they needed overtime, and Dallas, of course, lost that game 33-30 at home. So two straight weeks, they have had to come down to the last minute and, of course, had come from behind teams. Obviously, the win didn't happen for the Colts, but for the Arizona Cardinals, it did. Now quickly, if you're enjoying this breakdown, make sure you hit that like button. Our best like video this month is at 349 likes. Let's see if we can get to 350 likes on this one. Now the second key is penalties. Dallas had 14 for 153 yards at Indianapolis, and a team that wins by four does not get to give away 153 yards. The third key for them is the offense taking care of the football. Dak threw for 335 yards, and Lamb had 10 catches for 195 at Indianapolis. But Dak lost a fumble, and Lamb fumbled too. Now again, question for the Lamb one was there. But besides the point, two takeaways, one of those being really close to the red zone, maybe even inside the red zone for the Colts. If you do that against the 49ers, you will not win this game. A 7-1 team, those players are the ones that are going to decide it. But San Francisco, they're not going to give the ball back. And Lamb said it plainly. If the defense gets staffs and the offense scores, we will have a different conversation, which, I mean, basic knowledge of football there, but it's true. Now, the second thing here is Dallas has to solve the pass rush because San Francisco's front has been getting home and they've been doing it steadily. DeForest Buckner leads the 49ers with four sacks this season, coming over from the trade from the Colts. Keon White has three and a half, and Osa Odigizawa, the former Cowboy, has two. Of course, Odigizawa playing for Dallas now, a 49er. He knows the guys he's going to be lining up against very, very well. Dak has the passing numbers to answer it with 63.78 passing EPA this season, but his last two home and road games look different. Against Arizona, he went 19-29 for 195 yards and one touchdown. But against Indianapolis, it was 21-34 for 335 and two touchdowns with a lost fumble. The difference between those games is the one the offense controls, how long Dak holds the ball, and how clean the protection is. Tyler Guyton, Tyler Smith, Terrence Steele, they are all on the active roster up front, and of course, they're all looking healthy as we move into this game. On the other side, Brock Purdy, he's playing at a high level. He's completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,980 yards, 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He threw two or more touchdown passes in each of his first five games this season, and his best streak ever is six back in 2022. Now, Dallas gave up 33 points to Arizona, but Arizona also scored 30 on San Francisco in a 36-30 loss. So this is a defense that is going to be tested once again. Quinton Williams, Rashaun Gary, Kenny Clark up front. Donovan Azaraku, questionable. Looks like he should be good to go, but we'll see. Now, a lot of that is going to be tested here with a pretty good offensive line for the 49ers. You're trying to get home on Purdy, which you haven't been able to get home a lot. Now, that group has to get to Port Purdy. It's not a negotiable, especially because Porter's status is up in the air. So the secondary is not at full strength with P.J. Locke already ruled out to another concussion. Now, let's start with the number that surprised me, though, in terms of why Dallas can pull off this upset. Brock Purdy has 70.47 passing EPA this season, and Dak has 63.78. It's not a giant gap. However, the gap is in the record. San Francisco is 7-1, but has only played two true road games, a 32-29 win in Seattle and a 20-29 loss in Atlanta on October 25th. Their wins over Seattle and Arizona came by 3-6, close ones against NFC teams, and Arizona is the team that beat Dallas in overtime. The points tell the same story. San Francisco is plus 79 this season, Dallas is plus 10, but Dallas has scored 246 to the 49ers' 235 points. And San Francisco is thin where Dallas attacks. Mike Evans, Debo Samuel, two cornerbacks, all questionable going into this game, so you can definitely see some attacking fronts from the wide receivers and from the blitzing attack, you might say. Sports Illustrated's Ian McMillan wrote that he is taking the points with Dallas for that reason. Now put it together, and Dallas needs its offense to be clean, its defense to survive, even with Porter's decision still up in there, and then finish. That's the way it's got to go. Finish. It hasn't done it this season. Now, the reason this game is bigger than one result is the schedule that's going to follow it. After San Francisco, Dallas hosts Tennessee at home on November 22nd. Then it's Philadelphia at home for Thanksgiving. Philadelphia is 2-7 right now, last in the NFC East. So that should be a game that Dallas has every reason to win. And obviously, Tennessee ain't doing too much either. Home field, though, they haven't helped much through this season because Dallas is only 1-3 at home this season with losses to Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and Arizona. The road gets harder. Seattle on December 8th, Rams on December 20th, Jacksonville coming up. Both of those Rams and Seahawks games going to be away. Lots of struggles in games. You've got to win now. A win over a 7-1 team turns three straight home games into a real run at the Giants, who are 5-3-1 and only one and a half games ahead of you. A loss, though, means Dallas is chasing at 4-6, and the whole way home stretch needs to go perfectly. That is why Jerry Jones said a win would give the team energy as it goes forward and why this one counts for more than the other eight games the Dallas Cowboys have played thus far. So, what is the verdict? Well, I think Dallas can win this game. They are a team that are better than what their record shows. They're better than what their stats show. And their defense has been improving. Doesn't mean it's good, not by any stretch. But there are a lot of things that back the Dallas Cowboys being in a good spot and maybe this becoming a shootout. We just saw it last week. The number that is going to back this whole argument. Dallas outgained Indianapolis 508 yards to 271. Now, the Colts' defense is far and away worse than what the 49ers are going to put out there. But I still think this is going to be a close game. But the problem is, close games have not been fortuitous for the Dallas Cowboys. They have had to come back and win late games. It hasn't gone their way sometimes. It's gone their way other times. But penalties are a big thing, and they can make close games. Hard to win. 14 for 153 last week. So what I'm watching for Sunday, well, that's going to be the final decision on Porter and whether or not he plays. And of course, Pickens, he says he's playing, but we want to make sure of that come Sunday. And a win can change the season. Again, 25 points on your playoff odds. 50% if you win, 25 if you lose. And if you win, you put yourself right back into the conversation, not just for the NFC East. But for the NFC, because of what team you just beat. So let us know in the comments section who wins, Cowboys or 49ers. I'll see you in the comments and we'll see you on this channel tomorrow. Appreciate you watching. Peace out.