Taiwan Elections: New Taipei City Emerges as Key Political Bellwether

Taiwan’s Nov. 28 “nine-in-one” local elections could offer an important test of the island’s political direction, with New Taipei City emerging as the most closely watched contest, according to Stanford University political scientist Kharis Templeman.

Templeman identified five key mayoral races as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) seeks to expand its local foothold and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) defends its strongholds. President Lai Ching-te, who also chairs the DPP, has urged voters to give his party a stronger mandate.

New Taipei City emerges as the crucial contest

Speaking at the Northern California chapter of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA) annual meeting on Oct. 17, Templeman, director of the Hoover Institution’s Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Program, described New Taipei City as the election’s defining contest. “New Taipei City is the most crucial battle,” he said, according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA).

New Taipei, with more than 4 million residents, is Taiwan’s most populous municipality. Templeman said the KMT and DPP were closely matched there and that national political trends could strongly influence the result.

He also identified Taipei City, Hsinchu County, Changhua County and Keelung City as races to watch. Taiwan’s local elections resemble U.S. midterms in that governing parties can lose ground, Templeman said, but KMT incumbents reaching term limits may leave the opposition party particularly vulnerable.

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An improving approval rating for Lai and Taiwan’s strong economy could benefit the DPP, Templeman said. Even so, he cautioned that the results would not necessarily predict the 2028 presidential election; a disappointing KMT showing could prompt internal changes ahead of that contest.

In New Taipei, DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui faces the KMT’s Lee Shu-chuan for the post being vacated by term-limited Mayor Hou Yu-ih. Recent surveys have offered conflicting pictures of the race.

After a survey placed her ahead, Su said, “I will keep working until I lead even in the KMT’s polls.” Lee maintained that “public opinion matters more than polls,” according to CNA’s Oct. 13 report.

CNA has noted that the KMT’s longstanding local organization and its cooperation with the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) could be significant factors in the contest.

Taipei mayoral campaign intensifies

In neighboring Taipei, KMT Mayor Chiang Wan-an is seeking reelection against DPP challenger Shen Po-yang, whose campaign has adopted the English name “the Taipei Current,” from the Chinese slogan “Yangliu.” On Oct. 19, Chiang announced that Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen would chair his campaign headquarters.

Lu said Chiang needed to concentrate on governing while his campaign team handled election operations. “For municipal affairs, turn to Wan-an; for campaign matters, turn to us!” she said. Asked about the 2028 presidential election, Chiang said he would support “the KMT’s strongest candidate,” CNA reported.

Warnings of Chinese election interference

Templeman said Beijing had repeatedly tried to interfere in Taiwanese elections but had achieved limited success, pointing to the DPP’s victories in the past three presidential contests. He said voters generally make decisions based on political preferences and their assessment of conditions in Taiwan.

Taiwan has faced such pressure for decades while remaining a competitive democracy, he said. “However, the people of Taiwan still need to remain vigilant, and the United States should also pay attention to this,” Templeman added.

At an Oct. 19 forum on election interference, DPP China Affairs Department director Wu Chun-chih warned that disinformation, psychological operations and AI-generated deepfakes could be used to influence voters. The party alleged that attacks on Shen had linked him to violence, marijuana and business ties with China. The cited reporting did not independently establish that Beijing directed those attacks.

Wu also warned that sexualized deepfakes could become a future tactic. The DPP urged voters to use its “three don’ts and one check” approach: question unclear sources, emotionally provocative claims and information lacking an original source, then verify the material with reliable outlets and fact-checkers.

Shen separately urged supporters to “stop, look and listen” before sharing election-related posts, CNA reported. He said doctored documents and other misleading material could circulate as the vote approaches.

Lai calls for DPP win amid legislative disputes

At an Oct. 18 campaign event in Yilan County for DPP magistrate candidate Lin Kuo-chang, Lai argued that winning local races was necessary to counter what he described as obstruction by KMT and TPP lawmakers in the Legislative Yuan.

“The budgets that should be reviewed and the budgets that should be passed are neither reviewed nor approved,” Lai said, accusing opposition legislators of advancing measures he believed harmed Taiwan.