Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition has moved ahead of its main opposition rivals as Israel counts votes from Tuesday’s parliamentary election, while President Donald Trump credits his endorsement for the shift and Arab-led parties emerge as potentially decisive players in the formation of a new government.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious coalition gained ground Wednesday as election officials counted ballots from the country’s first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, reversing earlier exit-poll projections that had suggested a stronger showing for the opposition.
Despite the shift, Netanyahu remained short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in Israel’s 120-member Knesset, raising the possibility of prolonged coalition negotiations or another election.
With 84.5% of ballot boxes counted shortly after noon Wednesday, Oct. 28, partial results published by Israel’s Central Elections Committee projected 54 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 49 for the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and 17 for Arab-led parties, according to The Times of Israel.
The results represented a substantial improvement for Netanyahu compared with the initial exit polls Tuesday evening, which projected approximately 50 seats for his coalition.
Earlier Wednesday, with 41.9% of ballot boxes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc had briefly reached a projected 57 seats, compared with 47 for Eisenkot’s opposition and 16 for Arab-led parties. Those figures subsequently changed as additional ballots were counted.
At another stage, with 76.8% of ballot boxes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc stood at 54 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc at 47 and the Arab parties at 19. The fluctuations demonstrated how preliminary seat projections can shift as votes arrive from different areas.
President Trump, who endorsed Netanyahu before the election, publicly credited his involvement with helping improve the prime minister’s political standing.
“When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned, and now, rather than a decisive defeat for a Great Prime Minister, it looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu,” Trump wrote on social media, according to The Washington Post.
Trump’s statement reflected his interpretation of the election, but the shifting results do not independently establish that his endorsement caused Netanyahu’s improved performance.
Netanyahu’s campaign had emphasized his relationship with Trump, particularly their cooperation on Iran, regional security and the Abraham Accords. The prime minister subsequently highlighted Trump’s support in campaign messaging.
Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Trump said the early projections had underestimated Netanyahu’s support.
“I heard the poll numbers were wrong… the exit polls; I heard he did very well,” Trump said. He also stated that his endorsement had helped the Israeli leader, according to The Jerusalem Post.
Israel’s election produced exceptionally high participation, with turnout reaching 77.7%, according to the Central Elections Committee. That represented an increase of approximately seven percentage points from the 2022 election.
The strong participation included Arab communities, where voter mobilization contributed to significant gains for the Joint List and Ra’am.
At the 76.8% counting stage, the Joint List was projected to receive 13 seats and Ra’am six, giving Arab-led parties a combined 19. Their projected representation subsequently declined to 17 as additional ballots were counted.
Their performance could prove important in coalition negotiations because neither major political bloc has enough seats to govern independently.
However, Eisenkot and several opposition leaders have resisted forming a government dependent on Arab-led parties, complicating the opposition’s path to assembling a parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu has also rejected governing through an alliance with Arab parties, citing disagreements over national security and political priorities.
The resulting uncertainty reflects Israel’s proportional representation system, under which parties must receive at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter the Knesset.
The fate of smaller parties near that threshold could affect the distribution of seats and the negotiations that follow.
Ballots cast by military personnel, prisoners, hospitalized voters and Israelis serving overseas are counted separately and could further change the projections.
Military officials reported that approximately 79.9% of eligible soldiers voted, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from the previous election.
The election was widely viewed as a test of Netanyahu’s leadership following the October 2023 Hamas attacks and the subsequent wars involving Gaza and other regional adversaries.
Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, campaigned on government accountability and political change, while Netanyahu emphasized his administration’s military record and cooperation with the United States.
As the count continues, President Isaac Herzog will eventually consult representatives of the elected parties to determine which candidate should receive the first opportunity to form a government.
The candidate selected generally has 28 days to assemble a coalition, with a possible extension. If negotiations fail, another candidate may be given an opportunity, or Israel could ultimately face another election.
Wednesday’s partial results demonstrate that Netanyahu performed better than the initial exit polls suggested, but they do not establish a governing majority or determine who will lead Israel’s next government.
The remaining ballots and subsequent coalition negotiations will determine whether Netanyahu can retain power or whether opposition parties can reach an agreement to replace him.
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