獨家【淨園財經】中國經濟黑天鹅云集

Hello everyone, I'm Borui. Welcome to Forbidden Finance. Some people on the Internet said that China's economy is facing seven black swans. I counted them. In fact, it is far more than these seven, but a group of black swans have gone to China. China's economic outlook is still not optimistic. Although the Beijing authorities have hopefully introduced a series of economic stimulus measures, In particular, a large amount of money has been invested in the real estate market to try to solve the long-standing real estate crisis, but the effect is not obvious. Perhaps the situation will improve with the passage of time, but recent data show that there is no good news at present, and it seems difficult to make a turnaround in the short term. First of all, the biggest black swan is that the real estate industry has entered a long and ambitious picture. Problems in the real estate sector are one of the root causes of China's economic woes and the focus of Beijing's latest stimulus measures. The problems began with the collapse of a large real estate developer in 2021. The government turned a blind eye to the industry's problems and did not launch a plan until the end of last year to try to address the impact of excess housing on real estate values and encourage more families to buy houses. As part of the plan, the People's Bank of China cut interest rates, but to limited effect. Beijing has abolished minimum interest rates on mortgages and introduced special provisions to encourage banks to lend more to home buyers. Recently, the central government raised about 1 trillion yuan, about 140 billion U.S. dollars, part of which was used to purchase vacant properties. However, the real estate market continues to decline. Home sales in the first five months of this year fell 30.5% from the same period last year, and new home prices continued to fall. In May, residential real estate prices in China's major cities were 4,3% lower than in May 2023, a drop of 3.5% from April. Second, we see that Chinese consumer spending remains sluggish. Housing prices continue to fall, making most Chinese people more cautious about spending, as most of their wealth is concentrated in their homes. Retail sales in May were 3.7 per cent higher than in May last year, up from 2.3 per cent in April, but still well below Beijing's 5 per cent annual growth target. At the same time, private companies are reluctant to invest in expansion or modernization, let alone hire employees. Third, China is a big manufacturing country, and the manufacturing industry has occupied the first position in the world for more than ten years, but now this advantage has begun to slowly reverse. Looking at the statistics, industrial production in May this year increased by 5.6% over the same period last year, but this does not make people too optimistic, because this increase is mainly the result of the CCP government's vigorous promotion of the development of high-tech productivity. However, production has exceeded domestic demand, raising concerns about where these products will be sold. Both the United States and the European Union have imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, showing hostility to Chinese trade. Even in this area there are signs of a slowdown. The increase in May was significantly lower than the 6.7% in April. Overall, one of the serious problems China is facing is the decline in manufacturing and manufacturing employment. In Zhejiang Province, for example, manufacturing jobs fell by 160,000 last year. Fourth, it is very obvious that foreign investment in China continues to decline. China has long relied on foreign investment since 2000 to boost its technological prowess and economic vitality. In the first five months of this year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that total foreign direct investment was 412.5 billion yuan, a decrease of about 30% from the same period last year. More importantly, these data indicate that the rate of decline is accelerating, and this is the 12th consecutive month of decline in foreign direct investment. China has been attracting a lot of foreign capital to prosper its economy for the past 20 years, but this trend has long been reversed. Fifth, the employment situation remains grim. In addition to massive unemployment, China's British graduates in 2024 are expected to reach a record high of 11.79 million. China's annual college students face the most difficult problem is nothing more than the employment problem. The number of British graduates is increasing year by year, and the supply and demand of the talent market has become unbalanced, which has led to an increasingly difficult employment environment. This is true even for the jobs that everyone dreams of in the computer, Internet and other industries. As soon as young people graduate, they are unemployed. sixth, the old - age society has arrived. there are more than 200 million old - age people in china, among which 80 million people receive basic old - age pension and retirement salary, and 120 million people receive basic old - age pension. China has struggled to provide the most basic pensions for these elderly people. According to estimates by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the accumulated balance of the national basic pension insurance fund for urban workers will be exhausted by 2035. Seventh, China has at least 70 million public servants, accounting for more than 50% of the world's total, and the number is still increasing. This team is so large that the government does not dare to investigate and count. China can no longer afford the support of these 70 million people. According to this calculation, China's official-civilian ratio is not 1: 198, nor is it 1: 26 discussed by deputies to the National People's Congress during the two sessions this year, but as high as 1: 18. According to the salary data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the average annual salary of employees in enterprises above designated size nationwide in 2021 will be 88,115 yuan. Based on this, we can calculate the total annual salary of financial support personnel, which is about 7.04 trillion yuan, about 40% of tax revenue. eighth, i add another one, this black swan has been in existence for a long time. it is the cost of maintaining stability that the beijing authorities pay for the so-called social stability every year. For example, the Political and Legal Committee, 610 institutions that specialize in persecuting Falun Gong beliefs, national security, armed police and other personnel salaries and administrative expenses. The cost of maintaining stability has been calculated for 25 years since 2000. The average annual cost is 600 billion yuan. So far, it has accumulated at least 15 trillion yuan, and even exceeded military expenditure in some years. According to the Blue Book of the Academy of Social Sciences, tens of thousands or even more than 100,000 mass incidents occur in China every year, all of which require stability maintenance costs. The most expensive is the Falun Gong's maintenance fee, which is estimated to exceed the cost of the war. It can be said that China's maintenance fee will not be reduced until the Falun Gong issue is resolved. Related research institutions estimate that China's stabilization costs will reach 1,3 trillion yuan in 2019 and around 1.4 trillion yuan in 2023. Officials may tell their superiors that the recently implemented policies will pay off over time. Mr Xi and other leaders want to believe that too. It may even be true, but the data suggest that hope is still slim. At the same time, the Chinese Communist Party authorities will face more and more disappointment and dissatisfaction from the public and the business community. There are many more black swans. We can't list them here. Let's talk about them later. I also sincerely hope that everyone can clearly see China's economic situation and development trend, stop having illusions and stop investing in China casually. Well, that's all for today's program. If you like our program, please subscribe, praise and share it.