ExclusiveHow US Election Matters to China | The Jenny and Carrie show ｜Podcast

Hello, welcome to the Jenny and Carrie show on Today's World. This is our first episode. This is Jenny. Hey, Carrie, say hello to our audience. Hello, how are you? Okay, so this is Carrie. Carrie and I had, we did a Chinese episode a couple weeks ago, and we thought we would like to start an English one, because we thought it would be interesting and valuable to share thoughts from Chinese people to Americans and also share the America that we know to Chinese people. And we can share a bit more, a lot more actually, down the road. We want to be the bridge. We want to be the bridge, exactly. We want to facilitate the communications. Yeah, but today we'd like to talk about one specific topic, that is how Chinese people look at the US election. And the reason we want to talk about this is because, I just want to briefly explain the background, Carrie, to our audience. I saw a Voice of America article on the US election and on the US-China relations. It's because the US national, Jake Sullivan, what's his title? National Security Advisor. Yeah, the US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, he visited China recently. And then the article interviewed some people to talk about US-China relations and how they look at Jake Sullivan's trip. And then the person they interviewed, one of the people they interviewed is this person from Universal Pennsylvania. His name is Nathan Maboby. He's a director of the Penn's project on the future of US-China relations at the University of Pennsylvania. So he recently visited China, just in the last couple of months. He visited China and he talked about what he saw and how he felt. One interesting comment he made was that he said, whoever he met in China, be it Chinese government officials or China elite or average Chinese citizens, they're all very interested in US elections. And he said, okay, Chinese people in general, have been interested in the US election in the past. But this time they're particularly interested in US election because the US-China relations is getting worse. And then of course, Chinese people he talked to, they have different preference, who they want to, or who they think will become the next US president. But I thought this was very interesting. I don't know, Carrie, why do you think Chinese people are interested in US election? China and US, they have this like two complete different world. Language is different, culture is so different, and the system is so different. Yeah, it sounds almost impossible why a country so far away, and people so far away are interested in this country's election. But I guess we could look at this issue from different perspectives. Number one is, as you mentioned, in the recent Voice of America interview article, number one thing, I think it has to do with the China economy at the moment. We see a lot of reports talking about the low consumer sentiment. We see a lot of major multinational companies withdrawing from China, or they're losing money for their businesses in China. One particular example will be Starbucks. Okay, before you go into specific examples, I want to ask you, why is it that the economy in China is bad, make people more interested in US election? What's the connection between the two? It's a very interesting question. It's a very good one. I think, let's talk about the social phenomenon for a second. We've heard that a lot of China youth, or young people these days, they're facing a lot of life challenges, if you will. Number one, they cannot find jobs, even after graduating from very famous universities and good universities. So the unemployment rate in China is as high as 50%, as far as I've heard and researched. And the other thing is, the entire economic environment just makes it extremely unfriendly for them to live, or also to have a foreseeable future for themselves. So there's something that they call, as literal translation is, lie flat. What does that mean? That means they don't want to get married. They don't want a date. They don't want to buy a house. They don't want to have a next generation. Because they can't afford it. They cannot afford it. They don't see the hope. They don't see the future. Given the Chinese Communist Party leadership, Xi Jinping's direction in the past couple of years, especially after the pandemics, he's basically trying to centralize all the businesses to be under the China government. So there is a crackdown on entrepreneurship, on people becoming rich, and people doing well. If you don't have any government background, I think many of the Americans are familiar with Jack Ma, Ma Yun, including himself. He has to hand over a lot of his own businesses to the government so that he could at least stay safe, personally, for his personal safety issue. So I remember you mentioned one of the Chinese entrepreneurs. Sun Dawu. Yeah, the guy was doing very well. He was a local billionaire in one of the Chinese provinces. But because he was not willing to cooperate with one of the demands from the local government, the authority, so his entire company got taken away. All his money got confiscated. So he was sentenced to jail. And he no longer owns his company. I think there was a swift switch of the economic policies when under the previous leadership, Deng Xiaoping, that was what, it was Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao. So four leaders, four generations, I would say, ago in China. Deng Xiaoping was all for opening up China, opening up to the international market, just let certain people become rich first, so that it can bring up the entire China's economy. I think Xi Jinping is going backward in that aspect. He does not promote entrepreneurship. He does not want to see certain people become rich first, a small group of people, actually. And he wants to go back to Mao Zedong, which is one of the founding fathers of the Chinese Communist Party. He wants to have tight control over everything. So what you're saying is that, if I understand it correctly, is that Chinese people lose hope now, and they look up to the U.S. for hope. Deep down, is that the reason why they're interested in U.S. election? There are a few aspects. Number one is they are fascinated by the West, particularly the U.S. Yes, the democratic process. They're also fascinated by Taiwan's democratic process as well. It's only one ocean apart on the other side of the ocean. You can have the Chinese people there as well, speaking the same language, but they can have their democratic system, and they probably do even a better job than a lot of Western countries. But at the same time, in the U.S., especially this time, doesn't matter if you're the current sitting president, or vice president, or you were the formal president, you still have to go from event to event. You go through the process. They have to go through the process. You have to win the voters over. From state to state, event to event, you go to the TV to debate. Yeah, you have to go through the debates. You have to answer the voters' questions. You have to listen to the voters. You have to address their concerns. You have to answer their questions. Whether or not they did answer is a separate issue. You have to go through the process. You have to win the voters over. Your success last time does not guarantee your success in the future. So I think this is all very fascinating to the Chinese people because they don't have such an experience. In their system, there's only one candidate on the ballot that their so-called congressional election, and the 2,900-some people, there's only one person for them to choose from, which is Xi Jinping. And you can't even say no. Everybody has to vote yes. So it's a very different system than what they're accustomed to. So I think it's something that they wanted to have, but they cannot have. Yeah, I think it's a system that the Chinese Communist Party imposed on them. Yes, absolutely. They don't have the power to change it, but they actually want the system that they see in the United States. So I think that the democracy and the freedom U.S. is something that naturally draws Chinese people to be interested in the U.S. election. And another thing is what it says here. It says because U.S.-China relations is getting worse, people are more interested because they believe that U.S. changes, impacts the world, particularly impacts China. Who becomes the next president of U.S.? Actually, it matters a lot. It does not only matter to the people here in U.S. It matters to people in China. It matters to the whole world. Yeah, I agree. I mean, they're kind of hoping the U.S. can take the lead in the world stage with the democratic system and process. And I remember when you and I discussed earlier, you had said the Chinese people almost wish that there is something more that the U.S. president, the next U.S. president can do. Either it is to give them the hope or hopefully one day the China society itself can become more democratic. In today's Chinese society, there's not much hope. Put it blankly. I think, I believe a lot of Chinese people secretly hope that the U.S. could help to facilitate the end of the CCP. That's it. Overthrow. I mean, yeah. That's huge. Maybe not by force, maybe economically or in whichever way. But I think Chinese people hope. Why do you think people want to do that? Because they're desperate. They know anything is better than what they're going through now. What are they going through now? Okay. How bad is it? What you just said, there's no hope. People are so desperate. There's no job. Among the young people, there are over 50% unemployment rate or maybe even higher. So that's why they Tang Ping, because they cannot find job and they don't have money to get married. They don't have money to buy houses. And for a young couple, they can't afford to have kids. That's one thing. And the other thing is that political wise, it's such a harsh system environment in China that anything you say on the internet, the next day or the next hour or the next minute, you get a call from local police. They say, why did you send out this tweet? Or why did you send this Weibo chat? You have to delete it. And if you do it two or three times, they visit you. They may even take you away. So yeah, and worse yet, if you're somewhat successful, they may take your money and put you in jail. Lots and lots of things happen already. So I think in today's China, people are so desperate. They know the ship is sinking and they're on the ship. And they think that just let us sink fast and if I can be saved somehow. So I think people look to US as this just power in the world. What do you think is the percentage of people thinking that way in China today? You can never know the true percentage because there's no transparency in China. Nobody can go in China to do a very truthful poll. But the interesting thing is you mentioned poll. The other day I was interviewing another Chinese economist. He mentioned that actually there was a recent poll done by some American institutions. They do this poll every five years, once every five years. And the last poll they did in 2023 and they just published the results. So even though their poll was strictly regulated by the Chinese government, they have to submit their questions beforehand. They have to submit the result to the CCP before they can publish it. But it's very telling. The result shows that whoever they interview, people who don't see a future dramatically increase. Whether it's young people, old people, they don't see the future. I saw an article which was quite interesting. I think it kind of tied into what you just said. A lot of people in upper middle class, if you will, in China, as long as you have the capability to do so, a lot of people are running out of China. That's what they call, they did a translation of run to run. Meaning if you can run, run now. So how do we know? I think a couple months ago this year, right? So the CCP shut down one of the immigration advisory firm in Shanghai or somewhere. And then they noticed that the number of people that went into that company and asked for advice or handing the foreign country applications has dramatically increased in the past couple years. And that trend continues to rise. So that tells you for those people who can, they want to get out. For those people who cannot, they want to see a change, but they don't see a change. But in the meantime, over here in the U.S., we have one of the largest, if you will, the elections going on. That's exciting. That's an opportunity for them, I think. Yes, it's exciting. It's an opportunity for them. It's something very unique. I think to a certain degree, the Chinese people cherish this U.S. democratic system and process more than ourselves. More than Americans, because they cannot have it. They envy what we have. They want to have it, but they cannot have it. And they're watching it so closely and intensely. They want to see what's going to happen. And they feel very, I think they feel very involved. They feel very participated. Yeah, and going back to your earlier point, Carrie, about the true economic situation in China, we'll just talk about some examples too so that people can understand how much people's living standard has decreased, right? Because you mentioned that one of the example is, what, Starbucks? Starbucks, yes. So I think Starbucks, we all know, is not the best coffee in the U.S., but they are premium brand in China. Starbucks used to charge, what, 400 RMB? No, 30 or 40 RMB per cup of coffee. Oh, 30 or 40, okay. Yeah, RMB. So it's about, what, $4? $4.50. $4.50 U.S. dollars per cup. So now they have no choice, but to enter a price war with one of their biggest competitors, Lock-in. Lock-in Coffee. Yeah, it's a local Chinese- Ruixin. Ruixin Coffee. Because Ruixin Coffee, Lock-in, offers 20 RMB per cup. Actually, 10. Oh, no, 10. Now 10. They have this coupon that's widely available for people so that you can buy a cup of coffee with only 10 RMB. 10 RMB. So the point is, Starbucks was never going into the market for a price war, but now they have to. They are forced to do so. And they never gave out coupons. Now they have to. One, I think it's because they wanted to stay, I would say. We haven't seen any reports saying that they want to withdraw from the Chinese market. But the second thing is, I don't think they have a choice. If you want to stay in the market, you have to get into the market. It's because people who can afford 30 or 40 RMB per coffee dramatically decrease. That crowd, that crowd decreases. They lost that upper middle class who are looking for quality, premium service, users experience. That market is shrinking and it's shrunk dramatically. So I think Starbucks has no choice but to go with the price war. Which they reluctantly willing to do so. Their coffee is like 20 RMB per coffee now. Still higher. Still higher than Luckin. Still the most expensive. Still the most expensive coffee in China. But they're struggling. They're really struggling. 20 RMB is like what? $1.50. No, no, no. Actually $2.50. $2.50. Yeah. So it's still higher. Say if their profit margin per cup is about $2. That's it. Right? That's it. They wiped out. That whole price will wipe out all of Starbucks profit. So I guess it's just a matter of time before Starbucks decides when they're going to pull out the China market. But the main reason that they have to do such a move is because that upper middle class or that crowd who used to value quality premium service and quality coffee, the user experience is shrinking dramatically. Okay. So that's a problem. And another example is the Taiwan Din Tai Fung. Din Tai Fung is a xiaolongbao. It's a soup dumpling. Soup dumpling company. People call it their amazing soup dumpling business. Wow. So it's a high end. Top of the top. Yeah. It's a high end restaurant that specializes in soup dumplings and some other kind of xiaolongbao dishes. They've been in China for over 20 years and they have over 20 stores across China. But recently they announced they're going to close more than half of the stores in northern China. Right. 14 stores in northern China. I've seen that article too. And it's the same thing. It's because they're not doing good in China. People who go to their store, you know, who goes to Din Tai Fung in China? It's first, the elites in China. Second, business people who work in maybe foreign companies. Wai Qi, they call it. Third, middle class in China. Okay. Upper middle class in China who are doing really well. Now the group, foreign companies, a lot of them are withdrawing, are leaving China. So there's no foreign employees. No foreign employees. And second is the elite. People who used to be elites, a lot of them left. A lot of them left China. Okay. And then the middle class in China are dramatically shrinking, like Carrie just said. So they lose their customer base. Right. They don't have a business opportunity there. There's no profits. And the key thing is they don't see this to change in the near future. They don't see the future. They don't see the hope. See, I think for a lot of us, what we don't understand, or I guess we're very baffled or we're scratching our head and trying to figure it out, is that China had the past a few decades because of the most favorite country status. WTO. WTO and all those treaties and terms favorable to China. They have done amazingly or they had tremendous jumps in their economic growth. A lot of Chinese citizens, Chinese people have experienced that, had a good taste of it. I guess a lot of people, including the Chinese citizens, don't understand why Xi Jinping wanted to go backward. But I think we have to understand. Absolutely. But I just want to briefly mention that. That has to do with Xi Jinping being, his personal belief is central government control and he's following more of a totalitarian regime style versus a human rights versus a capitalism path. That's why the Chinese people are looking to the West, looking at the US elections. They want to be in this kind of environment. They want to prosper. They want to be able to be free on an individual level. I guess that's why they really care about the US election this time as well. That's another reason I see. Yeah. And the thing is, I think the reason why the Chinese people are interested in the US election are different from why the CCP regime is interested in the US election. For sure. Because CCP, the government, for sure, they're closely watching the US election. And I'm sure they- Because they want to see who's going to win to the office. They want to see who's easier to deal with. They're trying to see who's going to be the next president and how is this going to impact the regime, impact the power. And would they be tough on the CCP or would they be soft? And how would they impact CCP's ambition to aggressively expand globally and particularly in Taiwan or in the region nearby? So I think for the CCP, for the government, they have different sets of reasons. Albeit they're still very interested in the US election. So there's three different parties here. So it's the CCP government and then the official team. And then there is this elite team in China. And also we have the everyday citizens within China. They all have different reasons for interested in the US election. And we always say that the CCP government does not represent the Chinese people, even though they wanted to say they represent the Chinese people. We don't really see it that way. We think that the CCP government officials or a small group of people have a different reason and have a different reason for wanting to know or even influence the US election. But the Chinese people have a completely different reason. They just want to have a better life, honestly. They want to have a better future. They don't see it right now, as you said. So I think the bottom line is we are really in a system that's compared to the totalitarian system that is so much better. And we really need to treasure our system. And I think being in US, we should do what we can to protect the system, not be altered or be poisoned by the CCP or by communism. So I think this is an issue a lot of Americans are talking about nowadays. But I think understanding how the world looks at US, how the world look at US election will really help us to understand what we have and what we need to protect. Yeah, it makes it even more interesting and makes it even more for us to participate, especially given that the US election is only 65 days away or maybe less than 63 days as of today. And it's just that it's something that it's hard because we are in the system right now. So we probably took it for granted. We took it for granted. For other people who can have it, who don't have it, they want to have it so bad. So I think given what's going to happen the next couple of months, we're going to pay very close attention to both the Chinese market and also within the US, all the viewers and what they think about the whole situation. So hopefully you and I can do more of this kind of podcast and share what we learn. And hopefully we can be that rich and communicate a bit more. Yeah, definitely, definitely. And we're planning and we're also hoping that we can do this regularly, but we really want to hear from you, our audience, what you think of this podcast, what topics you want us to talk about and how do you see we can improve or just give us any feedback. Any feedback we would love. Yeah, we would love. And we will try to do another episode soon, but we hope you like our conversation. And if you like it, I hope you can like the program, help forward the program. And we hope to see you soon. See you soon. Bye.