MỸ LỘT MẶT NẠ BẮC KINH, TẬP CẬN BÌNH NÓNG RUỘT BỊT LỖ HỔNG CHIẾN LƯỢC CỦA TRUNG QUỐC

Welcome back to New Knowledge. I'm Lê Minh. Ladies and gentlemen, on the 21st day of the fourth month, the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping Call for the normalization of travel across the Hò Mút Strait. Clearly, this is not merely a diplomatic appeal for peace, But that is a very noteworthy strategic signal. Because a major power like China would only speak out in such a manner when they feel A vital lifeline of his was under pressure. In fact, President Xi had emphasized to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia that the Hormuz Strait needs to remain open. In normal maritime traffic, against the backdrop of China's growing concerns about instability along the world's most critical energy transportation route. And precisely from this detail, we must understand that the current world chessboard is no longer solely Iran's story. It is not merely a localized confrontation in the Middle East. Hoa Mút here is a chess square, Panama is a chess square, Malacca is another one. The Western Pacific is another chessboard. But beneath these chessboards lies a deeper battlefield. It is the U.S. dollar, gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, oil prices, marine insurance, and global financial market confidence. When President Xi had to speak out about the South China Sea, it showed that China is not only concerned about oil and gas. and also worried about the chain reaction, from energy to transportation, From transportation to industrial costs, then from industrial costs to currency and growth. Thus, we can now understand why the current U.S.-China competition is so intense and multi-layered. The United States is not only targeting the flow of goods but also challenging the way the world prices risk. As for China, it is not only coping with challenges at sea, but also striving to withstand shocks in energy, finance, and currency. In recent times, the United States has pursued a clear sequence of moves; on the surface, these moves involve tightening pressure on Ha Muc by blocking ships from entering and leaving Iranian ports. maintain pressure on the world's most critical energy transportation route. As we discussed in the previous video, the Panama move, where the Panama ruling makes C.K. Hutchinson's position at the two ends of the island channel weakened, while Washington immediately pushed the story forward. sang the legal framework, sovereignty, and free trade. The third move is the Western Pacific. where Exercise Balikatan 2026 brings together over 17,000 soldiers, About 10,000 U.S. military personnel, along with forces from the Philippines, Japan, Australia, Canada, France, and New Zealand. This is a signal that the U.S. can still remain actively engaged in the Middle East while maintaining a deterrent presence in Asia. The fourth move is Apsat Malacca, leveraging strategic access infrastructure, as demonstrated by the proposal submitted to Indonesia. on the broader mechanism of military flight across the airspace of this country. And when we place those four chess pieces down When seen together, it becomes clear that the United States is not attacking isolated points, but rather assembling them into a network. close the valves of the system. But if we only look at the warship and the military base, we still wouldn't understand. The sheer weight of America. The deeper strength lies in the fact that when the world fears, money still flows into America's backyard. Data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury shows the amount of U.S. Treasury bonds held by investors Foreign exchange reserves reached a record high of 9.49 trillion USD in February 2026. Japan increased its holdings to 1.239 trillion USD. trillion dollars, while China decreased to 693.3 billion dollars. The message here is very simple, yet also very cold. Despite a world full of instability, despite the U.S.-China competition entering a fiercely intense phase, the global financial system remains The market has yet to find any alternative destination that can match the scale, liquidity, and depth of the U.S. bond market. In other words, the U.S. fights using its navy out at sea, but behind that navy remains the power of gold. Dollars and the U.S. capital markets. That is why the new monetary front is the true center. of the chessboard. When tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalated again on April 20th, oil prices rose sharply. U.S. egg prices rise again and the U.S. dollar strengthens, while gold declines in some sessions due to pressure from the dollar. A strong dollar and rising U.S. bond yields. This may sound paradoxical to the average observer. War should have strongly driven up gold prices and weakened the U.S. dollar, but the real chessboard doesn't work that way. It operates intuitively, driven by the system's inertia. And that inertia remains even when instability erupts. The world is re-pricing risk through the U.S. dollar, U.S. yields, and U.S. assets. That is the advantage that China has. There is currently no immediate substitute available. Here, gold is a very important chess piece for China. The People's Bank of China China has been purchasing gold for 17 consecutive months, up to the end of this March. The total holdings have increased. 74.38 million ounces. This shows that Beijing fully understands one crucial point: if it continues to enter a period of competition When facing systemic confrontation with the United States, national reserves cannot be overly dependent on debt instruments denominated in dollars. the opponent's money. Gold, therefore, is financial armor, an asset without counterpart. By definition, it does not depend on Washington's payment commitments. But gold is merely armor. It helps defend against blows, but doesn't enable China to dictate the next move. Gold does not create a market. as deep as the U.S., it fails to create a sufficiently strong international settlement currency, nor does it establish a banking network a global-scale hedging instrument. Therefore, China's increased gold purchases reflect The defensive strength has increased, but it also reflects a genuine concern. They still haven't built a solid structure. The currency is large enough to step out of the shadow of the dollar. This becomes even clearer when looking at the renminbi. Reuters on April 19 pointed out that crude oil imports from the Middle East accounted for only about 6% of China's total crude oil imports last year. It was valued in yuan. That figure is a bucket of cold water poured over the entire argument. Don't even think that Beijing has nearly replaced the petrodollar. Not at all—China has internationalization ambitions for its currency. money, with bilateral payment lines, gold accumulation, and a declining trend in holdings However, the renminbi has not yet become the main channel for global energy trade. Simply put, the U.S. still holds the main pipeline of global finance, while China is only trying to establish side branches. If it comes to America's advantages, there are three very clear points. First, they have the ability to connect geographical fronts. On the financial front, a blockade in Hormuz would not only slow down ships but also increase insurance costs. War increased from approximately 0.25% of the ship's value to as high as 3%, meaning an increase of more than tenfold. When insurance costs rise in such a manner, the entire global logistics system gets revalued. The United States doesn't need to block all ships; it just needs to make the risks high enough that insurance and shipping markets will respond. will tighten one more loop. The second is that the U.S. has a network of alliances that the market believes in the ability to absorb shock. Third, the United States has the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset that attracts capital flows whenever the world faces turmoil. fear. These three layers together form a structural advantage. The U.S. could strike a blow at sea, and the echo of it would resonate again hitting oil, transportation, interest rates, exchange rates, and global investor sentiment. However, saying that does not mean China is weak. Their greatest advantage is resilience. Beijing has the capacity to endure a type of governance that many market democracies find difficult to tolerate. Reuters reports that China is redirecting additional oil supplies to Russia and Brazil. At the same time, authorities emphasized that they will continue to diversify energy imports and increase reserves. China's exports of diesel, aviation fuel, and natural gas to Hong Kong have only remained about 320,000 tons, equivalent to approximately one-sixth of the same period last year. This indicates that Beijing ready to hold the goods for oneself, allocate with precision, protect the industrial rear, and accept operating in batches of war-related products. On the domestic financial front, Reuters also reported Chinese government bonds attract capital inflows amid concerns over a potential debt default. Beijing, on the other hand, has retained its spot for the 11th consecutive month. That is, they prioritize stability over triggering the seed cluster. This is a contracting capability without breaking apart. Significant. However, these very reactions also reveal the limits of China. When President Xi Jinping spoke with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open for maritime traffic. It's normal; when Beijing calls for a ceasefire and a political solution, that is not just rhetoric. It's like holding a chessboard. It's the language of someone afraid that a vital blood vessel is being squeezed too tightly. When China had to significantly reduce its export of raw materials, purchase more gold, and attract capital into domestic bonds, Changing the oil source, increasing reserves—everything clearly indicates a very distinct response structure. Shock absorption, extending duration, reducing losses. In other words, China is making multiple strategic moves. but most of it is a deep knight maneuver. Now looking at the allied satellites, You will see why Beijing has even more to worry about. In the Western Pacific, the U.S. is standing alongside the Philippines, Japan, Australia, Canada, France, and New Zealand. during the 2026 Balikatan exercise, Japan participated in live-fire drills for the first time within this framework. Using the entire Type 88 system. This is not merely a purely military matter—it is Japan's shift in strategic orientation. from a cautious stance to a readiness to participate in a more实战-oriented structure. This is worrying for Beijing, as it shows Washington not only has allies on paper, But there are already partners beginning to accept lower prices in order to be closer to them during this turbulent era. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia cannot yet be said to fully align with the United States, but merely the fact that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs This country must issue a warning regarding the proposal to allow U.S. military aircraft to fly through its airspace under a broader mechanism. Enough is a strategic signal. It means the U.S. is seeking to expand its operational space. around Malacca. And Malacca is, in turn, a vital artery for China's trade and energy supplies. For Beijing, the concern is not that Indo will immediately become a military ally in the style of the Philippines. with the U.S., the concern is that even a slight shift in any single link within the region It also adds pressure, making it harder for China to breathe. In the Middle East, the situation is even more sensitive. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not obedient allies. According to the old U.S. approach, but when systemic risks rise, they still have to link security and finance. more than Beijing. International media also reported that the UAE has discussed matters with the United States. on a form of financial firewall in case of further deterioration, while Dubai's stock markets, Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia responded very quickly to the U.S.-Iran tensions. This is a point that China clearly sees but finds difficult to change. Beijing could be a major, wealthy customer. is a major trading partner, but when the chessboard heats up to the threshold of security and finance, The countries in the Gulf region still do not view China as their ultimate safety net. In Panama, China's reaction also revealed strategic discomfort. Reuters reported that China has increased inspections and scrutiny of ships flying the Panamanian flag after the country's status CK Hutchison was pushed out of ports near the island canal. Meanwhile, the U.S. openly described this as a cause for concern. This is a form of gray-area retaliation, increasing mass, raising costs, and exerting pressure on the logistics chain. But the very fact that such tools have to be employed shows that Beijing is already losing its position. It's still just provoking confusion, not yet gaining the initiative. Then, does China have any more chess pieces left? Yes, and not at all exhausted. They have gold. They have energy reserves and a very large industry. They have Russian oil, Brazilian oil. the pipelines on land, the ability to allocate resources scarce through administrative orders, etc. They may accept endure prolonged suffering compared to many other countries, and may utilize the gray commercial zone to create massat, as with the Panama flag ship. They can continue buying gold, continue reducing civil service Belonging to U.S. assets, it could then continue to push forward bilateral payments in renminbi in certain niches. All those pieces helped them resist being overwhelmed quickly. But the problem here was no longer about having Is it acceptable to let things slide? The real issue is whether we can secure the right to set the rules of the game. And the second question concerns China. It's still weaker than the U.S. How much longer can they withstand it? Given the currently available public data, It's impossible to seriously claim it's three months, six months, or two years. A precise figure at this point would merely be guesswork. A more accurate statement is this: China can withstand a prolonged blow thanks to its reserves. thanks to its ability to concentrate, thanks to state control over allocation and force. But the longer it lasts, the more... The cost does not lie in an immediate collapse, but in being trapped in a defensive posture. Growth is being eroded, energy costs are rising, strategic space is shrinking, and the yuan is not sufficient. Strength and currency alone cannot replace the US dollar. A major power can survive for a long time in a defensive posture. But it is very difficult to rewrite the world order if we must continually devote most of our energy to defending against threats rather than creating opportunities. On April 20, Fox News finally confirmed that the Iranian cargo ship had been seized by the United States. after being attacked by artillery fire originating from China. The vessel was carrying raw materials for manufacturing ballistic missile. You know, previously Washington mainly referred to China as the rear base Iran's economy, oil purchases, help evade sanctions, and sustain funding for Tehran. But if the Tuskar vessel incident truly connected to the supply of military equipment from Chinese ports to Iran's missile network, the chessboard has shifted to a new stage. America no longer sees Beijing merely as a buyer of Iranian oil. but as a material link in the chain sustaining Tehran's fighting capability. At that point, seizing the ship was no longer merely an act of enforcing a blockade. but become a strategic message that Washington is prepared to shift responsibility onto Tehran back to Beijing. And that is the pivotal point of the chessboard. Thus, it can be seen that the U.S. is gradually removing its mask. From Beijing down. China is backing Iran against the U.S. That is the truth. At this moment, the story has caused a small number of those who previously accused the U.S. of using its power to bully other countries to reconsider. Such aggressive and combative attitude must be reevaluated. For it is precisely here that a flaw in logical thinking has emerged. People still tell the story saying that Iran is weak, bullied, and isolated. Being pressed against the statue's ceiling, their every reaction could be understood as self-defense. But if day by day there are increasingly clear signs that behind Iran is not just a solitary nation, but rather an entire network of support in goods, technology, finance, and logistics If there is a link connecting it to China, then the entire argument begins to develop a very large flaw. Because at that point, this is no longer a story of a great power oppressing a small one. It is the story of a regional regime being sustained in order to maintain its capacity for confrontation. As for the U.S., it's not only attacking the visible part but also tracing back to the hidden, deeper layers of that network. Even though the details about the cargo on the Tuscar remain merely speculative, they are still plausible. but not yet the final public conclusion, But that alone is enough to make the story of Iran being a solitary victim shine brightly. And we see that those who criticize the United States often try to construct a moral picture, A very simple moral picture: on one side, Iran is being pressured; on the other, the United States is aggressive and warlike. On the surface, it's easy to empathize, as people generally tend to side with those perceived as weaker. But the mistake lies in the fact that they deliberately cut off the background portion of the painting. They only focus on the moment when the U.S. blocked the ship, imposed a blockade, and exerted military pressure. but refuses to look and see who is keeping that machine running. If behind Iran there is an entire network of dual-use goods, along with transportation routes, as well as financial and technological networks connected from outside. then the United States' actions are no longer simply bullying the weak. but it targets a strategic support chain that China is highly likely behind. That is why we now return to the statement made by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The matter of having to keep the Hormuz Strait open is even more thought-provoking. If Beijing were truly just an innocent observer, Then that call will merely be an ordinary diplomatic maneuver. But when it emerged almost simultaneously with the U.S. seizure of the Iranian vessel just after it had passed through that Chinese port chain allegedly carrying dual-use cargo, then its meaning has completely changed. It makes one wonder whether what Beijing is concerned about goes beyond peace in the region. Moreover, it is the fact that a vital lifeline of the very network they rely on is being silently strangled by the United States. The story of Iran and the story of China's support for Iran Then how will the United States deal with those shadow alliances? It's likely to remain very complicated, and we'll just have to wait and see. At this point, today's program would like to take a temporary pause. We kindly invite you to share your personal opinions. Lê Minh says hello and looks forward to seeing you again.