What if Beijing Attacks Taiwan after the Winter Olympics? | Tea with Erping

Ignorance is the softest pillow on which a man can rest his head. As the French philosopher De Montaigne said, Welcome to Tea with Erping. You may have heard that two of the world's most powerful dictatorships might be engaged in separate collisions that could change history and leave the world at enormous risk. Russia's threat to occupy part or all of Ukraine, and China's intention on annexing Taiwan. Speculators fear that Beijing Winter Olympics, which runs from February 4 to 20, could play into both Russia's decision regarding Ukraine and Beijing's plans on Taiwan. The game, dubbed by human rights advocates as the Genocide Games, is being held during a pandemic, at a time of intense criticism towards China over human rights abuses such as concentration camps, false organ harvesting, and the crushing of Hong Kong's freedom. There is very little trust in the hosting country. Cyber security experts have warned that Chinese authorities could install spyware to steal personal data or track future activity. So worried that many countries have told their athletes to take burner phones. Xu Guoqi, a history professor at the University of Hong Kong, said that Beijing wants to use these games to convey to the world that the world is supposed to embrace China, to accept China as an equal, as a powerful nation on earth. At this point, we don't know what Putin and Xi Jinping talked about in their recent meeting in Beijing, especially regarding their respective military plans towards Ukraine and Taiwan. Yet, US sanctions have seen Russia redirecting trade from the United States to China, providing evidence that Beijing stands behind Moscow's aggressions. As quoted by Nikkei Asia Review, Art Yam Rukin, a professor of international relations, Putin likely receives some guarantees from Xi that if a crisis erupts over Ukraine and the West imposes major sanctions against Russia, then China will stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia. Both Putin and Xi Jinping are pushing hard their claims, despite the intensity of international resolve, to stop them. With mounting tension at Ukrainian borders, China will likely double up its demand for Taiwan. Ukraine gained independence 30 years ago after the fall of the Soviet Union. Yet, Putin sees Ukraine as part of Russia's sphere of influence, a territory instead of an independent country. In July 2021, Putin released a long article and called Russians and Ukrainians one nation. Russia has long resisted Ukraine's move towards European institutions, NATO in particular, and is using Ukraine as leverage for global diplomacy and concessions on sanctions imposed on Russia. Russia has made a list of far-reaching demands. On its request for NATO's commitment to not offer membership to Ukraine, NATO officials emphasized that they will not rule out future memberships for any Eastern European countries, including Ukraine. Russia's demands for veto power over independent countries are simply unacceptable. Rolling back democracy in Eastern Europe means expanding Beijing and Moscow's influence globally. At this point, Washington's threat of severe sanctions if Russia invaded Ukraine doesn't seem to bother Putin too much. Furthermore, with increasing energy demand, America may be dependent on Russia's oil down the road. Oil is the largest source of foreign income for Russia. Every dollar spent on oil means increased spending for the Russian military and its overseas interventions. For Beijing, Russia's confrontation with Ukraine and the response Russia is getting from the global community is an invaluable real-time lesson on the cost-benefit of possible military action on Taiwan. Just as Putin insists that Ukraine is fundamentally part of Russia, culturally and historically, Chinese leader Xi Jinping vows to fulfill the historical task of reunification of Taiwan with China by force, if necessary. Putin's attendance at Beijing's Winter Olympics is a show of unity with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. A top Russian official, Yuri Ushakov, told reporters that during this visit, Moscow and Beijing will discuss high-profile political and economic deals. Putin could sign more than 15 agreements, including the power of Siberia, a natural gas pipeline contract, and the 2,500-mile pipeline that transfers natural gas from eastern Russia to China. To counter sanctions, Russia and China have strengthened cooperation to neutralize US alliances with Europe, Japan, Australia, and India by creating joint financial infrastructure. Putin and Xi Jinping have voiced support for each other's core interests, safeguarding the so-called dignity of each country, to speak with a louder voice in global governance, and to guide the international community to establish the so-called correct view of democracy. Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that it's the strongest, closest, and best relationship that the two countries have had since at least the mid-1950s, and possibly ever. They also have a strong shared interest in undermining the states and alliances beyond their own borders that embody liberal values. So their main common interest is in effect a non-ideological one. They seek to undermine the democratic and liberal West. Power can be used for evil as well as for good. Without joining forces, not much can be done. Democratic countries have to stand together against the rise of authoritarian governments. Anti-democratic leaders are learning from one another on how to consolidate power and suppress political dissent while avoiding penalties from international institutions. Michael J. Abramowitz, president of Freedom House, said, Through their successes so far, these anti-democratic regimes are setting an example and fueling the rise of The spread of autocracy in Europe and Eurasia has far-reaching implications, not just for the region, but also for the world. Weakness when facing dictators is always dangerous. Upon learning that Britain had sold out Czechoslovakia to Hitler in order to avoid war, Winston Churchill said to Neville Chamberlain, Appeasement will not stop dictators, as sacrificing liberty will not give security, but only encourage other bullies. While it seems that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's pressure to reclaim Taiwan are matters of another country, the actions taken by these autocratic regimes have a direct impact on us, especially if Beijing to take Taiwan by force. The world relies on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC. The company accounts for more than 90% of the global outputs of the world's most sophisticated chips. Even Japanese and Korean electronic products are dependent on it. They are in all products with built-in electronics, including iPhones, personal computers, even automobiles. In a paper published by top U.S. Army War College Journal in 2021, two American scholars proposed to destroy facilities of the TSMC to deter China's invasion and render the island undesirable. The authors noted that if TSMC went offline, China's high-tech industries would be immobilized at precisely the same time the nation was embroiled in a massive war effort. Taiwan's economic minister, Wang Meihua, told Reuters that Taiwan's chip industry is deeply intertwined with the island's future. This isn't just about our economic safety, she said. It appears to be connected to our national security, too. Intellectual property theft has been an ongoing concern with China. What will happen if China takes over Taiwan and TSMC is under China's control? A top Pentagon official told the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Taiwan's semiconductors were a key reason why Taiwan's security was so important to the United States. It's estimated that China's IP theft costs the United States up to $600 billion a year. Taiwan's production of chips directly affects not only the U.S. high-tech industry, but also the global stock market and virtually every shareholder. It's quite a terrifying sight to imagine China getting hold of Taiwan's chip manufacturer even without access to the world's chip producer. The big brothers in China have already managed to infiltrate global communities and keep an eye on anything and everything as they please. It could very well be the world kneeling down to Beijing if we, as individuals, stand on the sidelines and not take a stand. If we change nothing, nothing will change. As to whether Beijing will attack Taiwan right after the Winter Olympics, we'll have to wait and see. But past experience shows that the Communist Party will do whatever it takes to maintain its power. This includes using tanks to run over the innocent students on Tiananmen Square. Let's hope that armed conflicts will not occur anywhere, whether Ukraine or Taiwan. Although most countries have diplomatic ties with China, a Chinese passport holder can only visit 39 countries without a visa, while a Taiwanese passport holder can travel to 111 countries without a visa. That perhaps speaks volumes about this island of Taiwan. As observed by many longtime China watchers, if mainland China becomes an open society governed by rule of law, Taiwan would perhaps be eager to become part of it, hence no need for any military takeover. People sometimes wonder, why do we often hear about mainland Chinese refugees applying for asylum in developed countries such as the US, Canada, and Europe, but no one has yet heard about any Taiwanese refugees in these countries? As the saying goes, all tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent. I'm sure we are all capable of being a person of good conscience, especially after a cup of freshly brewed green tea. Until next time, may peace and tea be with you.