Is SpaceX Launching Starship To Orbit This Month?

Imagine, after a long sleep with beautiful dreams, you wake up, turn on the TV or read an online article on your phone. Suddenly, you receive the news, Starship was launched into orbit. How then would you feel? I believe it'd be an extremely exciting and rather terrorizing feeling. Obviously the scenarios I mentioned would not be imaginary if there were no barriers from government agencies. Faced with the awful truth of the matter, some optimists among us will still think about the question, is SpaceX launching Starship to orbit this month? Alas, it seems that no one wants to answer the question. So let's go ahead and make this singular question into two smaller questions. Is Starship ready to launch this month? And if it is, will it be allowed to launch this month? Let's find out in today's episode of Great SpaceX. Now, to answer the first question of, is Starship ready to launch this month specifically, perhaps this question should be answered by insiders. Well, a month ago, SpaceX founder Elon Musk, the biggest insider we know at SpaceX, seemed to give us the answer. Specifically on September 6th, after Starship S25 was stacked on booster B9, he posted a tweet on X with the content as follows, Starship is ready to launch, awaiting FAA license approval. This tweet from Elon Musk made many of us feel happy and excited. Those emotions became even more intense when we took a look at what SpaceX has been through over the past few months. It all started more than five months ago on the 20th of April. On that day, we witnessed Starship's first orbital test flight with the S24 and B7 pair prototype. This is Starship's first integrated flight, also known as an integrated flight test. This is the first time a Starship second stage and a Super Heavy first stage have been combined in flight. With an overall height of 120 meters, along with a diameter of 9, it became the largest rocket prototype in history, surpassing the record of the 111 meter tall legendary Saturn V rocket. Sadly, the monster's performance only lasted four minutes. Hey, it happens to the best of us. Not me though. And with those four minutes, S24 and B7 left SpaceX with a lot of problems. The most notable of them is the explosion, the deep hole underneath the launch pad, dust, debris, and more problems with the Starship. For most people, it would be considered a failure. But is it really as negative as we think? Nope. From a positive perspective, this can be considered a very valuable and necessary experience for SpaceX. The flight helped SpaceX realize a lot of problems with their Starship project. The most important problem, or in other words, the main cause of the failure in the last six flights is separation, or the separation system to be technical. After the flight, they identified problems with the old system. The separation process failed, causing the two stages to sequentially fail to separate. If it continued to fly, it would be extremely dangerous. So SpaceX intentionally detonated the spacecraft above the Gulf of Mexico, thus destroying it into several thousands of pieces. And not only could it not separate, but the old system also showed many disadvantages. This is how it's supposed to go. During the separation process, the super-heavy's engines would stop working. The two stages would separate, and the engine on the upper stage, or the second stage, would be activated. This whole process would cause a moment of flight without thrust, reducing flight performance. If activated earlier, the heat and pressure from the second stage engines could cause damage to both stages. Therefore, another method has been applied. And if you've stuck around with us for a while now, then you already know what it is. But for those of you that have just joined us and aren't really privy to what's been going on, it's called the hot staging mechanism. This involves having a ring with vents between the two stages. The vents will help direct and disperse the energy generated by the engine, preventing it from accumulating and damaging the two stages. Thanks to this, the second stage can activate earlier while still sitting on the first stage, or the booster, creating continuous thrust. This mechanism will also help the separation process become simpler and more reliable. And that's important. This is truly an important upgrade. Musk has confirmed the importance of this system. Recently, he said that the success rate of the next flight will be 60%. An increase of 10 compared to the 50% in the previous flight. And that 10% comes mainly from this new system of separation. The next notable problem in the previous flight was the engine. After it left the OLM, or the orbital launch mount, we saw a few engines in the Super Heavy not working. The cause is believed to be that the ignition system and hydraulic unit system were not working properly. After that, several other engines also stopped working. The reason is due to the nozzle system, manifold, and hot air ducts being affected by the large source of energy generated from the engine, leading to fuel leakage, which then caused the engine to fail and ultimately lose control. SpaceX has taken measures to fix this problem. First, they changed and reinforced the parts that I just mentioned before, helping them increase their durability and ability to withstand heat and pressure from a huge energy source, thereby avoiding fuel leaks. The ignition has also been improved to increase reliability when activating the engine. A new electric TVC system is also designed to replace the hydraulic unit system to help the engine operate more efficiently and reliably. Finally, let's take a look at the launch system, which shows us the clearest influences of the April flight. A deep hole appeared under the OLM after that flight. This is due to the huge thrust on the Raptor engines. Aside from that hole, concrete debris also flew around, causing damage to surrounding facilities, especially at the tank farm, with prominent dents to the fuel tanks. In order to solve this problem, SpaceX's engineers created a fountain under the OLM. Wait, I mean, it's actually called the water deluge system. It's a hexagonal steel plate joined by seven smaller steel plates, and water will be pumped from the water supply tanks to these steel plates through the deluge pipe system. When the engine is activated, water will spray up through small holes in the steel plate, helping to reduce heat and pressure from the 33 Raptor engines. Additionally, the steel plate is also made from super durable steel, helping to withstand thrust from the engine and ensuring the safety of the OLM and surrounding infrastructure. In addition to the three upgrades I mentioned before, in the past few months, SpaceX has also made many other changes, which, as Musk said, amounts to over a thousand. Currently, SpaceX has only one small test, the wet dress rehearsal, which will probably take place within the next few days. With these upgrades, Musk will help us understand and answer the question, is Starship ready to launch this month? The answer will be a definitive yes, as SpaceX is ready to launch Starship even today. Well, maybe not today, but maybe tomorrow or the next day. But keep in mind, though it is well prepared, it still has not received permission from the FAA. Having laid bare all of their corrective actions that the FAA has set for them, SpaceX is still awaiting their approval. On September 10th, SpaceX showed a report on the completion of 57 of the 63 required corrections and the remaining six will be performed in a future flight. Many people actually thought that this was their final challenge, but it's really not because the FAA isn't the only agency that is involved in evaluating and licensing SpaceX. The Fish and Wildlife Services, or the FWS, is the agency that I refer to. Though SpaceX clearly showed corrective measures for the FAA, it seems that the FWS does not really care, or at least doesn't consider it, as they still want to conduct their separate assessment and review of Starship's recent upgrades. It's expected that the work will probably last several months, specifically a period of 35 to 130 days starting in October. Perhaps we've realized something from this time frame. The minimum time for work is 35 days, which is more than a month. Starting in October, this means in the best case scenario, Starship's next flight cannot take place this month. With the slow working style of government agencies, it won't even be this year, but most likely will be pushed back to 2024. Thus, we have arrived at the answer to the question, will Starship be allowed to launch this month? And sadly, the answer that I, as well as many others, have received is no. We'll probably need to wait a few more months to see Starship tear the sky at Boca Chica and reach orbit. But don't be sad about that. Instead, we should be proud when looking at what SpaceX has done in the past. Positive changes have been shown, and Starship and its other systems have become better. SpaceX knows how to learn from problems to change, improve, and upgrade. These are respectable efforts. And thanks to that, we can safely say that Starship is always ready to launch. The FAA and the FWS may still be in the way, and we still may have to wait and continue to suppress our emotions, but why not? We've been with Starship for a long time, so a few more months? Not a problem. In fact, waiting will help us have the most explosive and sublime emotions when that day comes. The day we witness Starship breaking all limits to fly into a profound orbit. Well, folks, that wraps up our show for today. We hope you enjoyed learning more about what's happening over at SpaceX. If you want to support our channel and get access to exclusive content, please consider becoming a patron by clicking that link in the description below. Look at it. It's so shiny. Alright, so we appreciate your generosity and your passion for space exploration. As always, this is Kevin from GreatSpaceX, and until next time, keep looking up.