SpaceX and NASA Ramps Up to Next Missions while China's PERFECT Starship Revealed…Space Weekly #26 === 00:00: Intro 00:42: Will B19 or S39 move? 04:33: Other progress in Starbase === #greatspacex#elonmusk#spacex#nasa == Advertisers who want to place ads on our channel, please contact the email manager: [email protected] === SpaceX Starship SN Be the first to sponsor us Thank you. https://www.patreon.com/GreatspaceX?fan_landing=true === SpaceX and NASA Ramps Up to Next Missions while China's PERFECT Starship Revealed…Space Weekly #26 SpaceX is preparing to roll out hardware for Flight 12 and beyond. NASA continues ramping up toward the Artemis 2 mission early this year. New details about Raptor 4 are beginning to surface. And China is now openly pursuing a SpaceX copycat strategy, complete with near identical designs and bold claims. Let us break down the biggest stories of the week in this episode of Great SpaceX. SpaceX and NASA Ramps Up to Next Missions while China's PERFECT Starship Revealed…Space Weekly #26 Time to come back. After a record breaking period of preparation, the hardware for Flight 12, which will be the first V3 flight, now appears ready for deployment. What will SpaceX take on as its next step? At the same time, operations at Starbase continue to deliver a steady stream of notable and compelling developments. We also know that the B19 booster stack is complete, supported by striking images from inside Mega Bay 1. After nearly a week of preparation, which was likely needed to install the new COPV system, B19 now appears ready to roll. Meanwhile, Ship 39 has been completed for quite some time. As a result, it is increasingly likely that Flight 12 hardware is about to move, with B19 being the most probable candidate. At the time this video was recorded, there were no visible signs of movement. However, by the time you are watching this, that rollout may have already taken place. This raises an important question. Why might B19 roll out before S39, even though S39 completed stacking earlier? The most likely explanation involves ongoing improvements to the Ship test platform. In recent days, cross bracing has been installed, and a new flex hose system for the Ship quick disconnect is being assembled at Sanchez. This system is likely part of a broader upgrade planned for Massey. Because of this, the Ship test platform likely requires additional time before it is fully ready. SpaceX and NASA Ramps Up to Next Missions while China's PERFECT Starship Revealed…Space Weekly #26 Under those conditions, beginning testing with the booster first becomes the more logical approach. This sequence also allows for a smoother testing cadence. Once cryogenic testing for Super Heavy is complete, SpaceX can proceed with Ship testing without delays caused by booster operations. For B19 to be ready this early, its production speed once again deserves attention. A 28 day production timeline is a record for Super Heavy in particular and for Starship hardware overall. It highlights SpaceX’s flexibility and ability to adapt rapidly under challenging circumstances. This level of performance will be increasingly important moving forward. If B19 has indeed rolled out, it will first undergo a stress test before proceeding to cryogenic testing. This process mirrors what was performed on B18 and is designed to verify the integrity of critical structures such as fuel tanks and internal plumbing before any propellant is loaded. If that process proceeds smoothly, cryogenic testing could take place within the first few days of the new year.
SpaceX is preparing to roll out hardware
for flight 12 and beyond. NASA continues
ramping up toward the Aremis 2 mission
early this year. New details about
Raptor 4 are beginning to surface, and
China is now openly pursuing a SpaceX
copycat strategy, complete with near
identical designs and bold claims. Let's
break down the biggest stories of the
week in this episode of Great SpaceX.
Time to come back. After a
record-breaking period of preparation,
the hardware for flight 12, which will
be the first V3 flight, now appears
ready for deployment. What will SpaceX
take on as its next step? At the same
time, operations at Starbase continue to
deliver a steady stream of notable and
compelling developments. We also know
that the B19 booster stack is complete,
supported by striking images from inside
Mega Bay 1. After nearly a week of
preparation, which was likely needed to
install the new COPV system, B19 now
appears ready to roll. Meanwhile, S39
has been completed for quite some time.
As a result, it is increasingly likely
that flight 12 hardware is about to move
with B19 being the most probable
candidate. At the time of recording this
video, there were no visible signs of
movement. However, by the time you're
watching this, that roll out may have
already taken place. This raises an
important question. Why might B19 roll
out before S39 even though S39 completed
stacking earlier? The most likely
explanation involves ongoing
improvements to the ship test platform.
In recent days, cross bracing has been
installed and a new flex hose system for
the SQD is being assembled at Sanchez.
This system is likely part of a broader
upgrade planned for Massie. Because of
this, the ship test platform likely
requires additional time before it's
fully ready. Under those conditions,
beginning testing with the booster first
becomes the more logical approach. This
sequence also allows for a smoother
testing cadence. Once cryogenic testing
for Super Heavy is complete, SpaceX can
proceed with ship testing without delays
caused by booster operations. For B19 to
be ready this early, its production
speed once again deserves attention. A
28day production timeline is a record
for Super Heavy in particular and for
Starship hardware overall. It highlights
SpaceX's flexibility and ability to
adapt rapidly under challenging
circumstances. This level of performance
will be increasingly important moving
forward. If B19 has indeed rolled out,
it will first undergo a stress test
before proceeding to cryogenic testing.
This process mirrors what was performed
on B18 and is designed to verify the
integrity of critical structures such as
fuel tanks and internal plumbing before
any propellant is loaded. If that
process proceeds smoothly, cryogenic
testing could take place within the
first few days of the new year. Now that
the previously identified speed issue
has been addressed, the primary concern
surrounding B19 is reliability. No one
wants a repeat of the problems
encountered more than a month ago,
particularly since B19 was built under
tight production timelines. Hopefully,
SpaceX has implemented the necessary
upgrades during this production run to
prevent similar issues from occurring
again. So, what comes next? Following
cryogenic testing, B19 will return to
Meabay. This is when the most
significant V3 upgrade will arrive for
installation, the Raptor 3 engines. Once
that process is complete, the booster
will be very close to demonstrating its
full performance capability. So, are you
ready to follow the continued progress
of B19 and possibly S39 as well in the
opening days of the new year? If so,
respond with ready in the comments
section down below. And don't forget to
like the video and subscribe to the
channel to continue following SpaceX's
development journey. Beyond the
preparations for flight 12 hardware,
several other important activities are
also underway. As part of preparations
for booster static fire testing, SpaceX
recently conducted a major test of the
tank farm system. This largecale test
appeared to involve tanks containing
liquid oxygen and methane. The intensity
of the test was evident from the
significant venting which blanketed the
tank farm area and nearby runways. The
test took place over an extended window
beginning at 11:00 a.m. on December 28th
and continuing until nearly midnight on
the 29th. The purpose of this test was
to verify the reliability of the tank
farm after a long period of inactivity,
which dates back to the flight 11 launch
in mid-occtober. The system must be
fully prepared for integration with pad
2 ahead of upcoming tests. Additional
installations, including the possible
addition of vaporizers, may also have
been involved. A related section was
recently rolled to the launch site,
likely as part of ongoing tank farm
upgrades. In addition, as mentioned in
an earlier update, SpaceX will also be
conducting COPV testing at Massie. This
testing is particularly important
because this system experienced repeated
issues during V2 operations, including
failures linked to recent Superheavy and
ship test explosions. Recent images from
Staractory and B19 suggest substantial
changes to this system. It appears more
robust, capable of handling higher
operating pressures, reducing the risk
of leaks or explosions and supporting
long-term operations once Starship
enters full reuse. As a result, there is
strong interest in seeing how SpaceX
proceeds with COPV testing at Massie.
Starbase continues to operate at a
constant pace, even during periods
without launches or major tests. As core
testing ramps up, activity is expected
to increase further over the coming
years as SpaceX works toward its most
critical goals. With that in mind, let's
welcome the new year and prepare for
what lies ahead. Starbase now feels like
it is turning a page. The era of the two
towers is ending, replaced by
infrastructure built for execution
rather than experimentation. The
timeline is tightening. The pieces are
aligning. Fully reusable orbital flight
is no longer a distant vision. It's
approaching fast. And the question is no
longer whether SpaceX will attempt it,
but whether we are ready to see it
happen. After years of anticipation, the
next official lunar mission, Artemis 2,
is finally drawing closer. NASA
continues preparations with the space
launch system, the Orion spacecraft, and
supporting infrastructure. But major
questions remain. The main ones being
what comes next and how secure is the
long-term future of these programs? And
with uncertainty still surrounding
schedules and readiness, how far along
is Artemis 2 really? And why does its
path forward remain so unpredictable? If
the 2022 mission was a quiet journey
around the moon without a crew, then the
upcoming flight scheduled for early next
year will mark a historic turning point.
For the first time in more than 50
years, humans will travel farther from
Earth than any crew since the Apollo
era. That mission is Artemis 2. And
according to the current schedule, NASA
aims to launch within a window that
stretches from February through April of
next year. This means the countdown to
humanity's return to deep lunar space
has effectively entered its final phase
with only a matter of months remaining.
Naturally, this raises an important
question. How exactly is NASA preparing
for such a highstakes mission after
years of delays, revisions, and public
scrutiny? In its latest updates, NASA
has highlighted a major milestone that
brings Artemis 2 closer to launch
readiness. The agency has installed a
crew access arm on the mobile launcher,
a critical piece of infrastructure that
was not present during the uncrrewed
Artemis 1 mission. This specialized
system is designed specifically for
human space flight and allows astronauts
to safely and efficiently board the
Orion spacecraft while it's stacked at
top the space launch system rocket. The
addition of the crew access arm
represents a clear transition from
testing hardware to preparing for real
human operations. With this installation
complete, the fully assembled vehicle is
expected to move closer to the launchpad
in the near future. Once there, it'll be
connected to the launcher and subjected
to a series of integrated tests. These
tests are designed to verify that every
mechanical, electrical, and procedural
element functions exactly as intended.
Following that, the Artemis 2 crew will
conduct rehearsal activities that
closely mirror the actions they will
perform on launch day itself. While the
hardware continues to take shape, the
astronauts assigned to Aremis 2 have
remained deeply engaged throughout this
entire preparation period. Crew training
has been continuous, intensive, and
increasingly realistic. One of the most
significant recent milestones was the
successful completion of the countdown
demonstration test, often referred to as
the CDDT. Unlike earlier simulations
that relied heavily on data and virtual
environments, this test involved the
astronauts physically boarding the Orion
spacecraft. At the time, Orion was
mounted at top the SLS inside NASA's
vehicle assembly building at the Kennedy
Space Center. During this exercise, the
crew experienced the motions, timing,
and procedures that closely replicate
those expected on launch day. They wore
their full spaceac suits, entered and
exited the spacecraft, and followed real
countdown protocols under authentic
conditions. The countdown during this
demonstration proceeded in sequence and
halted at tminus 29 seconds. This is
only moments before the final automated
steps that would normally lead directly
to liftoff. Reaching this point without
issue was a strong indicator that both
the systems and the crew are operating
as expected. So far, all results have
been positive. After the remaining
preparations on the mobile launcher are
completed, the entire stack will be
transported from the vehicle assembly
building to the launchpad. There, the
astronauts will repeat similar tests,
but this time in an environment that
offers a much higher level of realism.
Weather exposure, pad infrastructure,
and realworld spatial constraints will
add layers of complexity that cannot be
fully replicated indoors. These
activities are only part of the
extensive preparation campaign for
Artemis 2. While the program was
relatively quiet in previous years,
progress throughout this year has been
notably steady and visible. That said,
it's also clear that this progress falls
short of the ambitious timelines
originally envisioned when Artemis was
first announced. Looking more closely at
the hardware, assembly of the SLS has
been underway since July of 2024. core
stage components, solid rocket booster
segments, RS25 engines, the intram
cryogenic propulsion stage, and the
launch vehicle stage adapter have all
been delivered, integrated, and stacked
in a carefully choreographed sequence.
Each component must meet strict
tolerances before it can be combined
with the rest of the vehicle, and even
small issues can introduce delays that
ripple through the schedule. Meanwhile,
the Orion spacecraft has followed its
own long and complex path. After Artemis
1, Orion became the subject of intense
scrutiny due to unexpected erosion
observed on its heat shield during
re-entry. This issue sparked debates
over design choices, testing
methodologies, and risk tolerance.
Despite these concerns, Loheed Martin
delivered the Artemis 2 Orion capsule to
NASA in late April of 2025. From there,
the spacecraft underwent fueling
operations, integration with the launch
abort system, and a series of validation
checks. By late October, Orion was
finally installed a top the SLS, marking
a major milestone toward flight
readiness. Taken together, these
developments make it clear that NASA's
preparations for its first crude lunar
mission in decades are real, active, and
increasingly urgent. Time is no longer
an abstract concept for Artemis 2. Every
remaining task must be executed
correctly because there is little room
left for error. That brings us to the
launch date itself. As of now, NASA
lists the earliest possible launch date
as no earlier than February 6th.
However, the presence of a wide launch
window extending into April suggests
that the agency is still managing
significant uncertainty. This is not
surprising. Artemis 2 must succeed not
only for the safety of its crew, but
also for the credibility of the entire
Artemis program. For that reason,
February 6th should be viewed as a
target rather than a promise. Delays of
days or even weeks remain entirely
possible and a shift into March or April
would not be unexpected. When dealing
with a mission of this complexity,
caution is not only reasonable but
necessary. With that in mind, many
observers have begun to speculate about
when Artemis 2 will actually lift off.
February, March, or April all remain on
the table, and each option reflects a
different balance between schedule
pressure and risk management. Now, while
Artemis 2 is moving steadily toward
launch, it would be impossible to
discuss the mission without addressing
the broader controversy surrounding the
future of NASA's traditional systems.
Support for the SLS and Orion remains
strong in some circles, particularly
among former NASA administrators. Jim
Benstein, for example, has openly
criticized aspects of the current
Artemis architecture while still
advocating for the continued use of SLS,
even proposing a dual launch approach to
improve mission flexibility. However,
this support is far from universal. A
growing number of critics point to the
slow pace, high cost, and quality issues
that have plagued NASA's flagship
vehicles. Artemis 1 alone required more
than a decade of development and
billions of dollars before it ever left
the ground. Those same structural
challenges are expected to persist with
Artemis 2 and beyond. In previous years,
internal and external assessments that
suggested the probability of SLS
cancellation was alarmingly high. At
times, estimates reached as much as 75%.
This year, that uncertainty has
intensified. The SLS and Orion were
reportedly included on lists of programs
considered for potential cuts or
cancellation with some proposals
suggesting that they could be retired
after Artemis 3. At the same time,
competing proposals have emerged that
aim to preserve these systems through
continued funding and incremental
upgrades. As a result, hardware
preparations for later missions appear
to be moving forward even as long-term
policy decisions remain unresolved. This
tension reflects a broader struggle
within NASA and the US government over
how best to pursue deep space
exploration. Recent comments from NASA's
new administrator Jared Isacman have
further intensified the debate. Isaacman
has been unusually candid in his
assessments of NASA's existing systems.
Regarding Orion, he noted that the
spacecraft is roughly 20 years old and
had never carried a crew prior to
Artemis 2 despite its long development
history. He also emphasized the
seriousness of the heat shield issues
observed after Artemis 1. Turning to the
SLS, Isaacman highlighted a recent solid
rocket booster test that ended with an
unusual malfunction. He also reiterated
long-standing concerns over quality
control, particularly with the
exploration upper stage under Boeing's
responsibility. Beyond that, he noted
that the lunar lander remains far from a
full operational demonstration while the
next generation EVA space suits continue
to lag behind schedule. Too directly,
Isaacman acknowledged that the mission
is years behind its original timeline
and will not enter lunar orbit. He
summarized the program as one built
largely on legacy space shuttle
hardware, flying at an extremely low
rate and costing far more while taking
significantly longer than it reasonably
should. Coming from the head of the
agency itself, these remarks have raised
serious questions about the long-term
future of NASA's in-house launch and
crew systems. At the core of the
criticism is a fundamental limitation.
The space launch system is not reusable.
Each launch expends billions of dollars
in hardware that cannot be recovered.
For a sustained lunar presence, this
model becomes increasingly difficult to
justify. After the first crews arrive,
launch cadence would need to rise
sharply to support base construction,
resource utilization, science, and
logistics. Maintaining SLS and Orion at
that pace would place immense strain on
budgets and infrastructure. This leaves
two possible paths. One is a sweeping
transformation that delivers greater
flexibility, affordability, and flight
rate. The other is eventual cancellation
with Artemis shifting largely or
entirely to commercial providers. Under
Isaacman's leadership, neither outcome
appears to be off the table. As
uncertainty grows around NASA's legacy
systems, the commercial space sector
continues to build momentum. SpaceX
stands at the center of that shift.
Despite development delays and ongoing
design challenges, Starship remains the
backbone of NASA's lunar architecture,
offering a scale and payload capacity
that no other vehicle can currently
match. Starship could radically
accelerate lunar exploration, delivering
massive cargo and crews, and potentially
serving as part of the moon's
infrastructure as a habitat or logistics
hub. No other rocket in development
comes close to this capability. At the
same time, SpaceX's Falcon and Dragon
fleet continues to provide reliable,
high cadence crew and cargo transport.
With Dragon proving more flexible and
far more cost effective than Orion, the
remaining challenge is execution.
Orbital refueling, routine orbital
flights, controlled landings, payload
deployment, and the lunar starship HLS
must all be demonstrated. If achieved,
they would redefine human space flight.
And under Jared Isaacman's leadership,
NASA is expected to strongly back this
effort. Blue Origin remains an important
part of that equation as well. After
years of delays, New Glenn's success
represented genuine progress. Its
landers could add valuable redundancy.
Even if the company's slower, more
traditional approach constrains rapid
scaling. Even so, SpaceX and Blue Origin
together now form the backbone of
America's return to the moon. Looking
further ahead, companies such as Rocket
Lab and Stoke Space could add additional
depth to lunar operations. Vehicles like
Neutron and other reusable systems may
take on supporting roles from deploying
rovers to building out communications
infrastructure at significantly lower
cost. As commercial capabilities mature,
NASA's own vehicles face an uncertain
future. SLS and Orion will anchor
Artemis 2 and three, but their long-term
value rests on flawless execution. Any
major failure could hasten their
retirement. After years of stagnation,
NASA may be approaching a turning point.
Its future likely lies not in owning
every system, but in orchestrating a
competitive commercial ecosystem. With
reform, strong private partners, and
renewed leadership, the US can sustain
space leadership through innovation,
flexibility, and scale. Why is Starship
the most powerful rocket ever built?
Many point to its massive design, but an
equally critical factor receives far
less attention. The relentless evolution
of the Raptor engine. Raptor 3 is
expected to debut within weeks. Yet,
SpaceX and Elon Musk are already
signaling the next leap with Raptor 4.
This future iteration is projected to
introduce sweeping upgrades that push
engine performance to new extremes and
redefine benchmarks for power. If those
gains are realized, Raptor 4 could
surpass every competing engine,
including Blue Origins BE4. So, how will
this next generation achieve such an
advantage? The existence of such a
version has been suggested directly by
Elon Musk himself, the CEO of SpaceX.
During an interview at Starbase with
Everyday Astronaut, Musk discussed the
future of the Raptor engine family and
made a striking statement. He noted that
a future Raptor could reach 330 tons of
thrust. While he did not explicitly
label this engine as Raptor 4, the
numbers tell a clear story. An increase
of roughly 50 tons of thrust over Raptor
3 is far too large to be a minor upgrade
or a small variant, such as a
hypothetical Raptor 3X. Such a leap
strongly suggests an entirely new
version. In other words, a clean break
from the current generation. At 330 tons
of thrust, this future Raptor would be
approximately 17% more powerful than the
Raptor engine we are about to see enter
service. That increase may sound
incremental on paper, but at the scale
of Starship, it's transformative. To
understand why, let's consider the math.
Starship's Superheavy booster uses 33
Raptor engines at liftoff. Multiply 330
tons of thrust by 33 engines and you
arrive at a staggering 10,890
tons of total thrust. That translates to
roughly 24 million pounds of force
pushing the vehicle off the launchpad.
This number matters because it crosses a
symbolic and practical threshold. With
Raptor 4, SpaceX would officially
surpass the 10,000 ton liftoff thrust
milestone. Raptor 3, despite being
extraordinarily powerful, tops out at
around 9,240
tons of total thrust. Impressive, but
still short of this longstated goal.
Musk has repeatedly emphasized how
important this milestone is. Last
December, while comparing Starship to
the Saturn 5, he explained the
significance in clear terms. He stated
that Starship already has more than
twice the thrust of Saturn 5. He then
added that when Raptor reaches 300 tons
of thrust at liftoff, which Raptor 3X
could probably achieve, and Raptor 4
certainly would, Starship would reach
10,000 metric tonses of thrust at
liftoff. That equates to roughly 22 1.5
million pounds of force, or almost
exactly three times the thrust of Saturn
5. More recently, in November, Musk
reinforced the point by highlighting
another advantage. He stated that Raptor
4 should outperform the Merlin engine by
more than 10 times in cost per ton of
thrust while also improving thrusttoe
ratio and specific impulse. This
underscores that Raptor 4 is not just
about brute force. It's about
efficiency, economics, and scalability.
Thrust, however, is only one part of the
story. Another critical metric Musk has
mentioned is impulse, particularly for
vacuum optimized engines. He noted that
within a few years, SpaceX expects a
field of Raptor 3 or Raptor 4 vacuum
variant to field a Raptor 3 or Raptor 4
vacuum variant with a giant nozzle and a
specific impulse of around 380 seconds.
That number carries enormous
implications. Higher specific impulse
translates directly into more efficient
propellant use, and those gains compound
rapidly. Starship could lift more cargo
or carry more passengers without
increasing tank volume. Payload margins
would grow. Reusability would improve as
well with larger propellant reserves
available for landing. Most critically,
high impulse vacuum raptors would
dramatically strengthen deep space
capability, supporting everything from
sustained lunar operations to eventual
missions to Mars. Up to this point, the
focus has been on sea level Raptors, but
improvements at sea level naturally
propagate to vacuum variants. The Raptor
3 vacuum engine is expected to generate
roughly 306 tons of thrust. If a Raptor
4 sele pushes beyond that mark, a Raptor
4 vacuum variant could take an even
larger step forward. Thrust levels
exceeding 350 tons are well within
reason, placing it in an entirely new
performance class. Reaching these
performance targets will likely require
a combination of design changes. SpaceX
could further expand the nozzle to
improve efficiency in vacuum, increase
combustion chamber pressure, or pursue
both paths simultaneously. The company
has already pushed chamber pressures to
levels once considered unrealistic, and
there is little indication that this
momentum is slowing, but power alone
does not define the Raptor 4 vision. The
other defining pillar is simplification.
That trajectory is already clear. From
Raptor 1 to Raptor 2 and now into Raptor
3, each generation has deliberately
removed small, fragile, and failureprone
components. Complex plumbing has been
streamlined. External fittings have been
eliminated or fully integrated. With
every iteration, the engine has become
cleaner, more compact, and significantly
more robust. All that momentum converges
in Raptor 3, the clearest expression yet
of this design philosophy. Many of the
delicate elements that challenged early
Raptors have been eliminated entirely,
leaving an engine far more resilient to
heat, vibration, and manufacturing
variability. Looking ahead, speculation
continues to build that future Raptors
could push even further in this
direction, potentially evolving toward a
near monolithic design with major
components integrated into a single
structural block. Whether that exact
configuration ultimately materializes
remains uncertain, but the trajectory is
clear. Fewer parts, fewer joints, fewer
failure points. If that path holds, the
benefits begin immediately with mass.
Eliminating complex assemblies reduces
the need for fasteners, flanges, and
redundant structural supports. Lower
engine mass paired with higher thrust
translates directly into improved
vehicle performance. Raptor 3 already
tips the scale at roughly 1,525
kg, down from 1,600 kg for Raptor 2. and
it's reasonable to expect Raptor 4 to
fall below the 1500 kg mark. Second,
reliability would rise alongside
simplicity. Many engine risks stem from
small, intricate components, leaks,
localized overheating, and vibration
induced failures often trace back to
complex assemblies. Simplifying the
design eliminates these weaknesses at
their source. Production is equally
critical. Even with its relative
complexity, Raptor 2 reached a
manufacturing rate of roughly one engine
per day. Once the design stabilized,
SpaceX proved that high volume engine
production is achievable. With fewer
parts and a more straightforward
assembly process, Raptor 3 could scale
to multiple engines per day as the
design fully matures. Raptor 4 could
push this even further. A production
rate exceeding 10 engines per day is not
out of the question. Such numbers would
be essential to support a future fleet
of Starships, especially if SpaceX
intends to fly frequently and build
large numbers of vehicles. Post-flight
inspection and refurbishment would also
benefit enormously. A simpler engine is
easier to inspect and faster to turn
around. Combined with similar
simplification across the rest of
Starship, this could enable turnaround
times that sound almost unbelievable.
Ships reused daily, super heavy boosters
reused every hour, dozens of flights per
day from a single launch site. That is
the mechanism through which SpaceX
intends to fundamentally reshape access
to space. Raptor 4 is not simply another
engine upgrade. It's a cornerstone of
the long-term Starship business case.
The clearest point of comparison is Blue
Origin's BE4, another methane fueled
engine. For years, thrust was one of the
few areas where BE4 held a clear edge.
From the outset, it produced roughly 250
tons of thrust, surpassing both Raptor 1
and 2, which delivered about 185 and 230
tons, respectively. Their narrative
changed with the arrival of Raptor 3. At
roughly 280 tons of thrust, Raptor 3
finally surpassed BE4, removing one of
Blue Origin's key talking points.
However, Blue Origin has not stood
still. After successfully completing two
New Glenn launches this year, the
company announced plans to upgrade the
next flight. The core of that upgrade is
an increase in BE4 thrust. Blue Origin
has stated that it demonstrated around
283 tons of thrust on test stands and
aims to reach 290 tons or approximately
640,000 lb of force. SpaceX's response
appears straightforward. Raptor 4 would
decisively reverse the situation. Even
without Raptor 4, SpaceX could
potentially introduce a Raptor 3X
variant approaching 300 tons of thrust.
With Raptor 4, the gap would widen
substantially. It's also important to
remember that individual engine thrust
is only part of the equation. Starship's
architecture allows SpaceX to cluster
far more engines than New Glenn. As a
result, Starship's total liftoff power
remains many times greater than that of
New Glenn, regardless of incremental BE4
upgrades. Simplicity is another area
where the comparison strongly favors
SpaceX. BE4's complexity appears roughly
comparable to early Raptor versions.
This suggests it'll struggle to achieve
the level of integration and simplicity
seen in Raptor 3 or envisioned for
Raptor 4. Complex engines take longer to
build, cost more to produce, and require
extensive inspection and refurbishment.
Operational consequences follow with
turnaround times remaining long. Risks
remain higher. The 10-month gap between
New Glenn's first and second launches
illustrates how complexity slows
progress. Compounding the issue, BE4
must also support ULA's Vulcan Centaur,
placing additional strain on production
capacity. Competition also exists beyond
the US. In China, numerous companies are
developing rockets that resemble SpaceX
designs. Many draw inspiration from
Falcon 9 while adopting stainless steel
structures similar to Starship. Methane
fueled engines are becoming increasingly
common, and some even closely resemble
Raptor 3 in appearance. In terms of
thrust, however, none of these engines
currently approach SpaceX's Raptors.
While visual similarity is easy to copy,
the underlying engineering is far more
difficult to replicate. Even successful
engines such as Landspace's Tian 12
remain far behind in overall capability.
Before any of this becomes reality,
however, SpaceX must first succeed with
Raptor 3. For now, all eyes are on
Raptor 3 and its upcoming debut. SpaceX
continues to demonstrate an almost
limitless capacity for iteration and
improvement. Nowhere is that more
visible than in the evolution of its
main engine. Thrust continues to rise,
simplicity continues to improve, and
efficiency continues to advance. Near
identical copies of the Starship launch
tower and Raptor 3 engine have already
appeared. Now, an apparent one:one
Starship replica has been officially
unveiled. So, why is China so openly
mirroring SpaceX? And will this strategy
lead to real success or expose deeper
limitations? According to a report from
the Chinese news outlet china.com, the
Starship lookalike we just examined was
developed by a startup company known as
Beijing Leading Rocket Technology. The
vehicle was originally named Zingha 1.
More recently, however, the company
appears to have rebranded it as Starship
1, a move that openly signals its
intention to closely mirror SpaceX's
flagship rocket. The rocket follows a
two-stage configuration with the first
stage clearly modeled after SpaceX's
Superheavy booster. Because the
available image is presented in a
horizontal orientation, it's not
possible to accurately count the number
of engines mounted at the base. The
upper stage continues this pattern,
closely resembling Starship itself,
featuring a smooth bullet-like shape
along with both forward and aft
aerodynamic flaps. There are, however,
several notable differences when
compared directly to SpaceX's Starship.
Most significantly, there is no visible
interstage ring between the two stages,
and there's no indication that hot
staging is being used. In addition, the
upper stage does not appear to be
equipped with a heat shield, which
raises important questions about its
re-entry and reuse strategy. To better
understand how this vehicle is intended
to operate, we can examine the diagram
released by the company. In this
illustration, Beijing leading rocket
technology directly uses an image of
SpaceX's Starship sitting on its launch
tower to represent the full stack
configuration of Zingha 1. According to
the diagram, the rocket launches as a
complete system before stage separation
occurs. After separation, the booster
performs a flip maneuver and returns for
a landing on a drone ship. Meanwhile,
the upper stage continues its ascent and
proceeds with payload deployment. The
upper stage features a dark door-like
section that replaces a traditional
separating payload fairing. It opens to
deploy the payload, then closes,
allowing the stage to re-enter the
atmosphere and land on a drone ship for
recovery. The company has also
introduced what it describes as a new
technological approach referred to as an
intelligent grid recovery system
combined with a fully reusable AI
powered rocket. According to Beijing
leading rocket technology, which I will
refer to from now on as Blurt, this
concept is intended to help the company
remain competitive as launch rates
increase and market prices continue to
decline. The company says its
intelligent grit recovery system
addresses the drawbacks of traditional
landing legs and vertical recovery which
require complex mechanisms, higher
costs, greater landing risk, and strict
site constraints. The new approach is
intended to simplify vehicle design,
reduce mass and manufacturing costs, and
enable safer, more flexible recoveries.
At the same time, the company is
developing AIdriven systems such as
digital twins, intelligent controls,
reusable health monitoring, and rapid
testing and maintenance frameworks. The
goal is to shorten flight to reflight
cycles, increase reuse rates, and
improve reliability. Working alongside
intelligent recovery systems to further
reduce launch costs with this
combination of SpaceX inspired design
and newly proposed technologies, Zingha
1 or Starship 1 is expected to support a
wide range of launch missions. The
company says the rocket will support
large, medium, and small satellite
missions with two primary configurations
planned to provide that flexibility. The
basic version is intended for medium and
small satellite launches. It's projected
to deliver up to three and a half tons
to a sun-synchronous orbit at an
altitude of 500 km. The company claims
this version will replace costly solid
fueled launch vehicles with a target
price of less than 7,000 yuan or under
$1,000 per kilogram. The more advanced
configuration known as CBC Heavy is
designed for deploying satellite
constellations. It's expected to place
up to 7.1 tons into sun-synchronous
orbit at an altitude of 700 km. As for
the timeline, Blert plans to conduct its
first launch in 2027, followed by a
gradual roll out of commercial launch
services. So, what do you think of this
highly derivative rocket design? Do you
believe this copycat approach can
succeed, or will it fall short of its
ambitions? Let me know with a yes or a
no in the comments section down below.
And don't forget to like the video and
subscribe to the channel to continue
following SpaceX's ongoing development
journey. From my perspective, the
outcome remains deeply uncertain,
largely because there are several
serious technical and operational issues
that cannot be ignored. To begin with,
the operational diagram released by
Blert shows that the company intends to
recover its rocket by landing it on a
drone ship. However, it doesn't appear
to be equipped with traditional landing
legs. So, how would the rocket remain
stable once it touches down on a moving
platform at sea? Would the company rely
on an external support structure, a
temporary platform, or even a crane
system to secure the vehicle after
landing? Even SpaceX itself has not yet
demonstrated routine success with this
approach despite years of testing and
iteration. The second major concern
involves thermal protection. The
vehicle, as presented, does not appear
to include a heat shield, which is a
critical emission for any rocket that is
intended to survive atmospheric
re-entry. Need I explain why? The third
issue relates to staging. The rocket
does not appear to use a hot staging
ring between the booster and the upper
stage. This could create serious
challenges during stage separation and
engine ignition. Similar problems were
observed during SpaceX's first
integrated Starship flight when
interactions between exhaust gases,
structural components, and engine
hardware caused damage. Beyond what's
visible in public materials, there may
also be internal challenges involving
propulsion reliability, structural
margins, guidance systems, and
manufacturing quality. Despite these
obstacles, China has not abandoned its
ambition to replicate SpaceX's approach.
And in many cases, it's doing so openly
rather than discreetly. One particularly
direct example emerged earlier this year
from a company known as Yushi Space
Aerospace Technology or Beijing Yushi
Space. This startup was founded in 2024
and entered the commercial launch market
with an unusually bold strategy. From
the outset, BYS made it clear that it
was directly targeting Starship.
According to disclosed information, the
company plans to develop a stainless
steel rocket powered by Methyloxx
propellant. The vehicle is called AS1.
For recovery, it's designed to use a
robotic arm capture system, which we all
know by chopsticks. These choices are
immediately recognizable as they
represent some of the most distinctive
and unconventional features of SpaceX's
Starship program. And unlike other firms
that quietly adopt similar designs, BYS
has openly stated that it is fully
aligning its technical approach with
SpaceX. This level of transparency
leaves little doubt about the source of
its inspiration. So, how is BY
attempting to turn this ambition into
reality? In a mid-year update, the
company reportedly raised approximately
13.9 million US to fund development of
the new rocket. Leaked images show early
hardware that appears relatively basic.
One image reveals a stainless steel
propellant tank with a company tank with
the company's name printed across the
top. Another shows stainless steel rings
being manufactured along with launch
infrastructure that closely resembles
SpaceX's Starship launch platforms. In
terms of scale, the AS1 rocket is
noticeably is notably smaller than
Starship. It's expected to have a
diameter of 4.2 m, which is less than
half that of Starship. Its height,
however, is projected to be around 70
meters, which places it closer to Falcon
9 in overall size. The rocket is
expected to generate a total thrust of
570 tons at liftoff. For propulsion, AS1
will reportedly use Long Yun engines,
each producing about 80 tons of thrust.
This implies a booster configuration
with seven engines. This implies a
booster configuration with seven
engines. The Long Yin engine is
manufactured by Gujo Cloud Arrow, a
company that has already drawn attention
for producing a close copy of SpaceX's
Raptor 3 engine known as the FY100. With
these dimensions and capabilities, BOIS
claims that AS1 will be able to deliver
up to 15 tons to orbit with a recovery
payload capacity of around 10 tons. In
terms of pricing, the company is
targeting a launch cost of roughly
$2,800.
If the rocket is successfully recovered
and reused, that cost could drop to
approximately $1,400
per kilo. Looking ahead, BYS has
outlined three primary development
priorities. These include testing the
two-stage rocket assembly, conducting
static fire tests, and validating the
robotic arm capture system. According to
the company, these steps are intended to
confirm the feasibility of the
technology, and guide future design
iterations. BYS is not alone in this
trend. Jujo Cloud Arrows FY100 engine
represents one of the most complete
copies of the Raptor 3 to date. Earlier,
Cosmolite became the first company to
replicate SpaceX's Starship style launch
system with its Leap rocket, which
blends elements of both Starship and
Falcon 9. Landspace followed a similar
path, evolving from solid fuel rockets
to the methylox powered Zuchi 2 and
eventually to the reusable XU 3, which
also reflects a hybrid of SpaceX design
philosophies. Whether quietly or openly,
cautiously, or aggressively, Chinese
aerospace companies continue to model
their ambitions on SpaceX. At this
point, they're not even hiding it
anymore. With the Falcon family, SpaceX
continues to set new records in launch
cadence, landing reliability, and rapid
reuse. Falcon rockets have demonstrated
their leadership through a steadily
growing list of achievements over many
years, and that dominance is not showing
signs of slowing down. If there is any
rocket capable of surpassing the Falcon
series, it can only be Starship. After
more than 2 years of intensive testing
across multiple vehicle configurations,
Starship has already achieved several
remarkable milestones. These include
successfully catching Superheavy
boosters using the Mechazilla arms and
demonstrating controlled landings of
both stages in the ocean. Building on
this foundation, SpaceX is now targeting
the Starship V3 configuration as early
as next year. The goals for this phase
include reaching orbit, deploying
payloads, and recovering both stages
using the Chopstick's capture system.
Beyond that, SpaceX plans to develop a
full inorbit refueling architecture,
which is a critical step towards
sustained operations beyond Earth orbit.
As development continues, Starship
itself is undergoing constant evolution.
Its already enormous scale is expected
to increase further with a potential V4
reaching closer close to 150 m in
height. At the same time, propulsion
capability will expand significantly.
The introduction of the Raptor 4 engine
could give Starship a total thrust
exceeding 10,000 tons at liftoff. Even a
technically competent copy would
struggle to compete with the pace,
scale, and integrated vision of SpaceX's
program. For this reason, the challenge
facing SpaceX is no longer limited to
traditional competitors. Instead, it's
now confronted by an unusual phenomenon,
which is the emergence of direct
replicas of its own rockets. These
copycat programs still face numerous
technical, operational, and
organizational hurdles before they can
seriously enter the global launch
market. Ultimately, the true outcome
will only become clear with time. The
coming years will provide the definitive
answer. Until then, we can only watch
and wait. In any case, folks, this has
been Kevin with Great SpaceX. Don't
forget to like the video and subscribe
if you haven't already to stay up to
date with yours truly on the latest
milestones in SpaceX's journey. Thank
you so much for watching and always
remember curiosity, imagination and
inspiration will follow you so long as
you keep looking