Studie zu deutscher Rüstung: „Zu wenig, zu langsam“ | Nr. 6498

Welcome to the Epoch Times Podcast with the topic Russia creates German existence in half a year Study on German armament Too little, too slow An article by Tom Göller from September 18, 2024 Pistorius fears that the Russians could stand in front of the gates until 2029. Therefore, military equipment and equipment are gaining more and more central importance. Is Germany far behind for the next 100 years, as feared in a recent study? And will only the one who can afford war for the longest time win in the future? Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, SPD, on 5 June this year, in a government inquiry in the Bundestag, demanded, quote, We have to be war-ready by 2029. We have to be deterred to prevent it from getting out of hand. Pistorius believes that Russia will be able to attack NATO states by 2029. Russia creates German existence in half a year. Scientists, on the other hand, are convinced that Russia will be able to do it faster. A study published on 15 September by the Kiel Institute for World Economy, IFW Kiel, comes to the conclusion, quote, that the capacities of the Russian armament industry have increased significantly in the last two years, far beyond the level of Russian material losses in Ukraine. End of quote. The study published by Prof. Dr. Guntram Wolff, an expert on Germany's geopolitical strategy, indicates, quote, that Russia now has access to new equipment, which is sufficient to build up three new armies, with a possible combined capacity of up to 20,000 combat troops and a front length of up to 150 km, which it can already use in the Ukrainian war zone this autumn. The Russian monthly production rates are now so high that they could fill up the entire German stock of military equipment in about half a year, according to the core statements of the study. Only in 100 years, level of 2004. On the other hand, Germany has not increased its stock of military capacities in the one and a half years since the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The study by Prof. Wolff paints a gloomy picture. Quote, In view of Germany's massive disarmament in recent decades and the current speed of procurement, Germany will only reach the level of 2004 in about 100 years with an important weapon system. End of quote. Taking into account the current armament obligations against Ukraine, some German capacities would even drop. On what scientific basis does the IFW-Kiel study come to such drastic statements? Data evaluated by TRACKER. The Kiel Institute has developed a so-called Military Procurement Tracker, i.e. a system that is able to record military acquisitions in Germany and other countries, identify them and track their use. The new TRACKER provides detailed information about batch numbers, order value and expected delivery dates. In addition, the TRACKER collects information about armament companies The authors of the study make it clear that there is nothing secret behind it. They only systematically collect information from open sources, such as official reports, press releases and public government information. Demands of science. Armament on EU level. The scientists from Kiel not only identify defects, but also raise demands on politics and economy. The slow and insufficient procurement can and must be remedied, they write. The defense budget must be permanently and credibly increased. There is no alternative for the team around Professor Wolf. Warned, quote, the pursuit of military armament is indispensable to the security of the continent. In his opinion, a long-term European armament strategy is necessary to achieve this quickly. Chief General cares about tank production in Russia. The problems mentioned in the study have long been known to the Ministry of Defense, but have never been communicated as clearly as those of science. The highest officer of the Bundeswehr, General Inspector, four-star general Karsten Breuer, already underlined on July 8 against NTV, what the new study is now black on white. Quote, Russia is currently building up a potential that goes far beyond what is needed for the attack war in Ukraine, said Breuer two months ago. Russia produces 1,000 to 1,500 tanks every year. If you compare this arsenal with the five largest NATO armies in Europe, they only have more than half of the stock, which Russia now supplies with tanks per year. The situation for German armament is therefore gloomy. Quote, all the more so if Europe cannot provide the support of the USA for Ukraine and for the collective deterrence as a matter of course, warned the Kieler report. USA, Because in a report of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, CNDS, from July 29, that the military capacities of the USA are overstretched. Since World War II, the American military doctrine has been based on two wars at completely different locations to be able to lead at the same time. This is apparently no longer the case, because the CNDS report comes to the conclusion that the USA are currently no longer able to wage a global war. The IFW Kiel study therefore draws attention to this. Europe should be aware, Quote, that the USA are not an unlimited warehouse for weapons and ammunition. USA spends ammunition because of Ukraine. Several studies of the Washington Think Tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, have already drawn attention to this new development. They showed that the delivery times for military material in the USA are now also critically high. This could lead to the delivery requirements exceeding the production possibilities, as in the report, Empty pots. The challenge for the US defense industry by Seth G. Jones comes to the fore in September 2023. The American analyst gives to consider, Quote, The US defense industry is not sufficiently prepared for the current international security environment. In a larger regional conflict, such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait, the use of ammunition by the USA would probably exceed the current supplies of the US Ministry of Defense. The ammunition supplies would probably run out in less than a week, for example with precision-guided long-distance ammunition. The war in Ukraine has raised serious deficits in the US defense industry and shows clearly, Quote, that a long-term conflict will probably be an industrial war. Another CSIS study from September 2023 dealt with the increasing demand and the growing supply of military unmanned aerial vehicles, UAS. Among them are usually drones. A team of scientists examined the spread of UAS, which has increased significantly in the short term. Two case studies were of crucial importance for the evaluation of the role of UAS in modern warfare. The four-month Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 and the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The analysts point out that in terms of armament orders, UAS should be taken more seriously, because they, quote, provide a wide range of skills to a growing number of states. Ukraine, for example, has been leading in experimenting with such skills so far. UAS instead of tanks. In other words, possibly the mutual number of tanks will slowly become obsolete, no matter how much faster Russian companies can build thousands more tanks than any other state in the world. Already now it can be read in the war in Ukraine that the decisive battles are carried out from the air. Destruction of infrastructure on both sides does not succeed with tanks, but with hypersonic missiles and hundreds of thousands of UAS. Air defense systems will be crucial in all future confrontations. This will also be addressed in the IFW-Kiel study for a possible war around Taiwan between China and the USA. You have to be able to afford war. The need for investment for German armament is, quote, so great that by 2026 or 2027 a second special fortune will be needed to close the big gaps in the abilities, predicts the IFW-Kiel study. The chief author, Prof. Dr. Guntram Wolff, is an economist by profession. But he does not say where all the money for this additional special fortune should come from. You have to be able to afford war. Germany was in debt with 1,696.3 billion euros by the end of 2023. This is equivalent to a per capita debt of 28,943 euros. In France, the debts are almost twice as high. In Italy, three times more. About the author. Tom Göller is a journalist, Americanist and political scientist. As a correspondent, he worked in Washington, D.C. and Berlin, among other things for the American capital newspaper, The Washington Times. Since April 2024, he has been writing for The Epoch Times.