What we know about the current state of Russia's military | DW Analysis

A mysterious explosion on Russia's bridge to Crimea. Sweeping counter-offensive. Russia is in retreat. Ukrainian officials interpret this as a sign that Russia is sensing defeat. If you have followed the news recently, you know that the war is not going well for Russia. But you might be surprised by just how bad things are for its soldiers. DW News has collected hundreds of private messages, videos and phone calls between them and their relatives. They paint a very grim picture of corruption. And neglect. They also point to one reason why the Russian war machine is stalling. One that most analysis have overlooked. Very little attention has been paid actually to the will to fight. Almost as soon as the draft was declared, some Russians shared videos casting doubt on their support. Many said they were being wrongfully called up. Some tried to run away. Or even harmed themselves to avoid conscription. Dmitry Kolezev is a Russian journalist known for his critical views of the Kremlin. He has a Telegram channel where many of these videos were posted. Once the men are drafted, the problems continue. Some complain about the lack of essential equipment like tents. Medications. Or even body armor with prices skyrocketing since the draft was announced. Many also lack basic training, which in most armies should last about 10 weeks. Dmitry says he usually posts videos the soldiers send relatives back home. DW News could not independently verify all aspects of these videos. Some of them could be fake. But taken together, they are cause for alarm. So how could an army that's been feared across the globe find itself so unprepared? A system like the Russian Federation, which is a highly personalist, autocratic regime, is really, really bad at information. Simon Miles is a historian who has done extensive research on the Soviet Union and Russia. He points out that from the very beginning, the Russian president appeared isolated. We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors. His allies and generals, uncomfortable. We like to use, of course, phrases like don't shoot the messenger. Well, in the Kremlin, messengers actually tend to die. No surprise then that Putin and his inner circle underestimated the strength of Ukrainian resistance and overestimated that of their own military. We saw time and again, basically the Russian military take its most elite light infantry units and move them into cities without artillery support and get slaughtered. Low-ranking commanders are discouraged from making their own decisions and are often left in the dark about what's going on. A huge number of them found out they were invading Ukraine when they drove past the big welcome to Ukraine sign on the side of the road and asked their commanders, where are we going? It looks like we've made a horribly wrong turn. This lack of transparency explains another major problem, one many experts keep pointing to. Corruption. Corruption in the Russian military. We see these examples of so-called leaders selling gear on the internet to make a quick buck. Authoritarian leadership and corruption explain the bad conditions many soldiers are facing. But this analysis misses an important aspect. The basic error that Russia made is the same error that the Western powers made. Scott Tatron has dedicated much of his life to understanding the motives and determination of warfighters. He points out that almost everyone underestimated the Ukrainian resistance. He didn't. We were setting up hospitals in Ukraine. One of the members of my team, he's been a combat soldier in the United States Army since Vietnam. And I said, so, you know, our studies seem to be showing that will to fight is extraordinarily strong among the Ukrainians. What do you think? And he says, never in all my years of fighting have I ever seen such a will to fight. Now, how did everybody get that wrong? Not only just how did they get it wrong, but how, why didn't they even bother to look at it, to inquire? One reason why the will to fight has been so overlooked stems from how the Allies won World War II. Germany and Japan actually were better fighters. They believed in their crazy cause and they took larger casualties and they refused to surrender. But the overwhelming power, productive power of the United States and the manpower of the Soviet Union crushed them. And ever since then, American military doctrine and Soviet doctrine has been based on the notion of war as winnable only if you have massive material advantage. But some of the most famous battles in history tell a different story. The Spartan defense of Greece against Persia at Thermopylae. The Alamo. The Battle of Stalingrad. The Battle of the Azovstal Steel Plant could be added to the list. Smaller but more determined armies have often prevailed over larger opponents. We made the same mistake in Vietnam. And then again in Afghanistan. This will to fight and this belief in the sanctity of their cause and the rightness of their cause gives us an identity of who we are and what our civilization is about. These become the creation myths of civilization itself. We remember Stalingrad still today as the paradigm fight against Nazism. And what Putin's tried to do is transfer that part of the creation myth of Russia's survival against Nazi Germany and reverse it and say, aha, the Nazis are attacking us again. Many Russians believe the Kremlin's propaganda. But this campaign, just like the military one, is showing some limits. There's no reason many of these people see for fighting. They just don't see Nazis attacking. Many soldiers find themselves caught in the gears of history. We see troops shooting their own officers sometimes, abandoning their equipment. Wrong assumptions and corruption account for their lack of training and equipment. All of the incentives stack up against telling the truth to power. But their will to fight is just as important. We cannot overstate the importance of how poor Russia's morale is. In an autocratic regime like Russia's, their will to take part in this war might not matter. But their will to fight certainly does.