中国経済襲う大寒波　次は新エネルギー車と資産管理業界か

China's official economic data is deteriorating again. The growth of high industrial production and high retail sales is stagnant, and the unemployment rate is also rising. As consumption and demand continue to decline, the cold of the economy is affecting many industries. In the face of such a situation, major foreign-funded investment banks are making rapid adjustments to China's economic growth forecast. According to the data released by the China National Bureau of Statistics on September 14, the increase in the value of industry in August has been the lowest level in the past five months. On September 13, the China Central Bank made it clear in a report that the new loan amount of the Chinese banking industry in August had exceeded expectations. This shows that the growth of China, the second largest economy in the world, is stagnant. The Chinese real estate sector, which is stagnant, is still under great pressure for economic growth. The new housing price in August recorded the largest decline in the past nine years. In the official survey, the year in which real estate prices rose in both the previous year and the previous quarter, only two out of 70 cities were subject to survey. Although the Chinese authorities are trying to rebuild the real estate market, real estate sales and investment for the first eight months of this year have fallen sharply. As the stagnation of the real estate market continues, Chinese consumers are trying to reduce their expenses. The price of consumer goods, which is an important indicator of consumption, has been stagnant since the beginning of this year. Some experts say that in order to promote consumption, the government should issue a purchase license. Wang Sheng, the chief macroanalyst at the International Trust Board of the People's Bank of China, said in an interview with Chinese media that the number of sales figures has been below 50 for four months in a row. In August, the construction industry's TMI also showed a relatively large decline. As the real estate industry continues to adjust, private consumption and private investment are becoming a major weakness, and the pressure to suppress the entire economy is getting stronger. Voice of America quoted a report by Reuters on September 16, and said that several major investment banks had lowered their expectations of China's economic growth rate. Goldman Sachs said in a report on September 15 that China's annual GDP growth rate is at around 5% of its target value, and that the risk of falling is increasing. In addition, the GDP growth rate for 2025 was expected to remain at 4.3%. Meanwhile, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley reasoned the decline in domestic consumer demand and lowered China's GDP growth rate forecast to 4.5% to 4.2% next year. In addition to the collapse of the real estate market several years ago, in China, several industries, such as the closure of export-type factories, the decline of real-time store-type ice services, have fallen into decline one after another, like the domino effect. While the entire economy is cooling down, it is predicted that the domino effect may spread to new energy companies and asset management. According to a report by Voice of America on September 15, Professor Shaden, a Chinese economic expert at the University of South Carolina in the United States, believes that the next major blow will be to China's automobile industry. According to Shaden, due to the Chinese authorities' subsidy policy, the new energy industry has expanded rapidly and hundreds of companies have joined. However, many of them have lost a lot of money despite receiving subsidies, and if subsidies are cut off, there is a risk of immediate economic collapse. The Chinese authorities do not have the physical strength to provide subsidies forever, so it is highly likely that they will collapse or merge in the automobile industry in the future. Professor Shaden says that China's electric cars and autonomous driving technologies are being exported from all over the world. He said that there is a high possibility of a large-scale layoff in the automobile industry in the future. In order to rebuild the declining economy, the Chinese authorities are building electric car factories in Africa and are planning to produce locally there. Recently, at a meeting of the China-Africa Cooperation Forum held in Beijing, Xi Jinping promised to invest nearly $5.1 billion in the African economy in the next three years. According to members of the Tanzanian delegation who participated in the China-Africa Cooperation Forum, most of the promised funds will be allocated to the construction of electric car factories In addition, China's officials said that thousands of jobs will be lost in Africa and that the roads in Africa will be filled with clean energy cars. However, due to Africa's low labor and limited sales power, it is unknown whether China's electric car industry will continue to grow. Economist Noriko Seishi, who lives in Maryland, America, predicts that the Chinese economy is currently in a spiral of decline, and that the economic downturn is expected to expand more and more. Seishi said that the impact of this economic downturn will expand further in the future, and that the asset management sector will be a concern. Currently, the assets of ordinary Chinese citizens are mainly concentrated in housing and bank deposits. The decline in housing prices continues, and is no longer a risk, but a realistic crisis. If the real estate bubble completely collapses, many people will lose their assets. Seishi warns that there will be a large financial risk in the future, and that it is likely to have a serious impact on the Chinese banking industry. Of the Chinese deposit surplus of over $400 trillion, about $200 trillion of which is individual deposit assets. Like Western countries, China also has a deposit insurance system, but I think that if the bank collapses and continues to collapse, the payment of insurance money will not remain. Seishi thinks that the deposit insurance limit is 500,000 yen, but if a financial crisis occurs, will there really be a margin to pay? He is concerned that there may be a crisis in the real estate industry and a financial crisis at the same time. But look, this is different. It's Ganjing World.