Why Israeli F-35 Nevatim airbase wasn’t destroyed, like Iran claims

Iran's missile attack on Israel has gotten lots of coverage already. But this video will dive into one specific set of claims. There were several apparent targets during the attack. Most missiles seem to have converged on four. Three separate air force airbases and a cluster of three intelligence service buildings in Tel Aviv. Of all those, Iran's biggest claim, as reported by their social media, was that the attack completely destroyed Israeli Navatim airbase. Another set of reports, per Iranian Shafakna news agency, is that 20 Israeli F-35 stealth fighter jets were destroyed on the ground. If true, that would constitute roughly half of the entire Israeli F-35 fleet right now. Israel, of course, countered those claims saying that the entire attack on Israel produced little damage, and specifically, that no planes were destroyed. Israel wouldn't comment on Navatim specifically, but as per Wall Street Journal US officials, said Navatim airbase suffered only minor damage. Of course, two warring sides in any war would have interest in not being truthful. So let's ignore all those claims. What does the data tell us? There are many videos out there showing numerous missiles hitting the ground in Israel. Some can even be fairly confidently identified that they are indeed near or in Navatim airbase. But there are also many videos that can't really be geolocated. And it's quite likely that some videos are showing either other locations, or they're showing the same strikes at Navatim, just from different angles. Iran said it launched some 200 ballistic missiles. Israel said 181 missiles were used. That disparity can be explained by possible malfunctions of some missiles, which failed to reach Israel. In the April attack, US intelligence suggested many Iranian missiles malfunctioned. Again, Israeli sources said most or majority of missiles were intercepted, without giving a precise figure. Back in April, Israel initially said 99% of missiles and drones were intercepted. Other Israeli media later suggested 84% interception rates. Later on, using imagery, it was apparent that at least 5 if not 7 missiles struck Navatim airbase. This October attack was actually more potent. April attack used lots of slow drones and cruise missiles, telegraphing the attack. Fewer ballistic missiles were used. This October attack used ballistic missiles only, including most advanced models Iran has. Like the Fatah, a maneuverable hypersonic missile. For the recent attack, Iran claimed some 80 to 90% of its missiles struck their targets. Of course, there's no way of knowing if the actual percentage of intercepted missiles is 20%, 50 or 80%. But that's actually not even crucial for our video. Let's play a little bit of devil's advocate here. Let's say that indeed 80% of 200 missiles hit targets. That's 160 missiles. Though there were 4 large target groups and possibly a few more small targets across Israel, let's say that half of the entire missile number hit Navatim airbase. That's 80 missiles. And is a far bigger number than any of the videos suggesting Navatim hits actually show. What sort of damage could 80 missiles do? That depends on many factors. One is warhead size. Iran's missiles need to cross over 600 miles to reach Israel. Carrying lots of weight over long distances is not easy. Which is why everyone tends to make their warheads smaller and to compensate for that with precise hits. Iran can't afford to miniaturize their warheads to the level the US is doing it. But reportedly even their Fatah missile has a fairly compact warhead. There are, of course, other missiles with larger warheads. Emads, Ghadr, Kaibar Sheikhan and so on. But what does such a warhead do? A 1000 pound warhead with some fuse delay will leave a crater 45 feet in diameter, 11 feet deep. Same bomb with no fuse delay will have those figures cut in half. This video shows a crater left by a missile somewhat near the building of an Israeli intelligence agency, visible in the distance. Depth wise, that may be close to 6 feet, though perhaps not quite 20 feet in diameter. There's this very recent satellite image, allegedly showing actual aircraft shelters at Navatim airbase, with a hit. Those are shelters for large planes, 140 by 140 feet. But they're also basically just sheet metal, protecting the planes from the elements and spying eyes. Providing this is actually a legit image, it doesn't really suggest a powerful warhead. A really big warhead would have torn those metal shelters to bits. Also, there's basically very little other damage visible around the base in that image. Except for that shelter hit. Visible parked planes might not have been there on the apron during the attack. There have been a few more satellite images leaking out, but even those mostly show misses, craters in the ground, away from important facilities. With one possible exemption. This one little hole in a hardened shelter, inside which an F-35 might or might not have been parked. The Navatim base is huge. One of the largest airbases in the world, actually. It has four runways, various taxiways and a bunch of apron space. Entire base area covers over 9 square miles, not counting the security perimeter. Navatim is home to Israel's most advanced fighters, the F-35s. Two squadrons are active, with a third one forming up. Over 40 F-35s are usually present at base. But Navatim is also home to Israel's more strategic assets, like its signals intelligence gathering planes and its AWACS-like planes, as well as in-air refueling aircraft. This 2022 satellite image can tell us just how big the base is. One can easily count at least 30 parking spaces with dirty revetments. Basically blast walls around spaced out parking spaces. Those have no roof, so they're very susceptible to cluster munitions. Iran has been testing such warheads quite recently, but there's no way of knowing if such warheads were used. The videos suggest lots of unitary warheads. Cluster warheads can cover areas probably a few hundred feet by a few hundred feet. They would easily penetrate simple metallic shelters, of which there are at least 49 in the satellite image. But cluster warheads are useless against hardened hangars. There are some 23 individual hangars visible, which are likely hardened enough to withstand light damage, like one from a nearby missile hit or a cluster warhead bomblet. Then there are hardened shelters. Thick reinforced concrete and lots of compacted dirt. Those would likely need a super precise hit to be penetrated. There seem to be around 32 of those visible. Finally, there are peculiar underground areas, with some 12 entrances which also look very hardened. Whether those are large underground protected hangars and how many parking spaces might there be inside is hard to tell. But those might not be penetrated even by smallish warheads, even if hit directly. Planes themselves don't need to be inside hangars and shelters. They could be parked all around the base. The base itself is huge, so planes might be dispersed all around. Some decoy plane models could have also been littered all over the base. And some planes could have been in the air. Not just doing regular ops, but Israel could have sent most of their F-35s away, just to be safe. That's what it apparently did with their Boeing tanker planes before the attack. Those are usually used away from the threat areas, and they had their transponders turned on so they were tracked. But who's to say that many F-35s and AWACS-like planes were also not sent into the air before the attack, not having their transponders turned on. Certainly the US has ample missile tracking satellite assets. And, as we saw in the media, the US did issue a warning of an imminent Iranian missile attack. Israel basically had a few hours of warning to either rearrange their planes all over the base, or to send some into the air at the last moment. Iran might have targeted runways, but that would have required too many missiles, with over 12 precise hits just to cut off the runways. Which can sometimes be repaired within hours. Or Israel could have landed the planes elsewhere. Generally, targeting runways is done if you can follow it up with other air attacks. In a solitary missile strike like this, it would be a waste. Another issue is that Iranian missiles so far have shown they're not all super precise. Remember that crater video? That missed the intelligence agency building by several hundred yards. GPS guidance itself is limited to like 10 feet in the best of circumstances. Iran boasted its satellite navigation precision involving just 60 feet of error. That was a few years ago. Iran's 2020 attack on a US base showed that many hits actually landed 30 feet off expected targets. But even 30 to 60 feet misses may not be enough to hurt a plane inside a hardened shelter. Plus, Iran used all sorts of missiles in this October attack. Like the Emad and Ghadr family. Those are older missiles which are less precise. It's likely that the average precision of all missiles was worse than 60 feet. Possibly much more so. And, as we said, there are a bunch of other variables in play. Not all planes being present. Iranian missiles generally not being super precise. Lots of hardened shelters requiring exact precise hits. So, even if those hypothetical AT missiles we mentioned earlier did somehow manage to land at Nevatim, only a small number could have achieved precise hits. Of course, in reality, far fewer than AT missiles hit Nevatim. As there were other targets too for Iran. And missile interception rates likely cut remaining figures at least in half. We're basically getting to a few dozen hits at most. Which is what videos are showing. And a few dozen missiles landing all over such a huge base is not going to do much damage. Even if some manage to hit a shelter precisely, there's no guarantee a plane will be underneath. As there were more such shelters than planes present at base. To compound all those issues, Iran faced another one. It simply can't know where planes are. Nevatim is in the middle of nowhere, with a security perimeter fence generally a thousand to two thousand yards away from important facilities. It's unlikely Iran had spies monitoring airbase targets 24-7 and tracking planes being moved around the base. As for spy satellites, Iran doesn't really have many. It has a single optical imaging spy satellite of sufficient resolution to be useful. While it's plausible Iran matched its missile strike right after its satellite passed Israel, time would still have been required to interpret images, decide on targets, input targets into missiles and launch them. Coupled with missile flight time, there was likely at least half an hour or an hour of time for Israel to do the last of the rearranging of assets around the airbase. Ultimately, the Nevatim airbase is indeed unlikely to have suffered much damage. Sure, some shelters might have been destroyed. Even some storage areas and perhaps some ammo depots might have been blown up. It's possible even some planes have been damaged, of course. Maybe some were even destroyed. But claims of the base itself being destroyed are not true. 20 of 35s destroyed are also an impossibility. Nevatim airbase is likely to have shrugged off this scratch and will keep on operating as usual.