Poland vs Germany: Who’d win a war in 2029?

this channel started with hypothetical war videos spitting various countries one against the other so today we are revisiting one of our more popular videos Poland versus Germany things have changed since 2017 but even more changes are underway so to make things more interesting this video won't simulate a war between the two today the video will gather info on current forces and all the planned projections for 5 years into the future and simulate a hypothe medical war between Poland and Germany starting in 2029 so who would [Music] win people often ask me how to make videos and how to express and communicate their ideas well if you're an absolute beginner in video production invid AI can help which is sponsoring this video in video lets you express your ideas in the form of stunning videos in the most seamless and intuitive way possible even if you are an absolute beginner other video making tools usually have steep learning curves and they don't cover all the steps you need to complete the process invid can be your creative partner that does everything for you just focus on your vision and idea and type in a prompt you can also edit anything you like like add music or voice over invid allows you to bring your ideas to life whether it's telling a story creating a YouTube explainer music video footage animated fiction or even making product videos it will put you in the director's seat while it does all the heavy lifting you can try invid AI for free this will save you hundreds of dollars that you would otherwise spend on editing animating and other production costs click the link in the video description below and give in video a try our longtime fans know the rules to our hypothetical war videos but here they are for the new viewers no outside political situation impacts the war it all happens in a bubble no allies or third party government sales or interference are allowed the morale is simulated to be equal and both sides want to conquer as much enemy territory as possible the war starts suddenly with only days of warning first things first what the situation today when it comes to Army numbers the German military has a peculiar organization with more distinct branches than your usual military Poland has for example support and services divided within other branches in Germany those are separate branches so the German Army troop figure of 63,000 has to be adjusted to be compared to the Polish equivalent basically when all the support and command services are split and redistributed to the Three core branches to get a common denominator with the Polish military the German Army would number roughly 109,000 active Personnel that compares to 95,000 for the Polish regular and territorial Army combined with a size of cut of the joint Services basically the German Army would be 15% more numerous then there are reservist troops those receive some training periodically but go on about their everyday lives until they are mobilized Germany currently has 7 and a half th000 Army reservists officially though if the same common denominator is used for Army part of personnel as we will Ed for the Polish reserves then the actual Army reservist count might go up to 21,000 Germany has started the process to boost its reservists but so far not much data exists other than the desire to have its reservist Force almost double to 60,000 by 2031 with the active military also Rising by over 20,000 to a total of 203,000 by the same year Poland's main Reserve force is the reserv as part of its territorial Army while led by 5,000 active duty troops the main force is actually composed of 35,000 additional reservists those get three to four weeks of training per year Poland also has voluntary military service with paid allowance basically light infantry some 30,000 are currently active with more in education so Poland currently has between 65 and 75,000 more troops of trained reservice quality compared to Germany's 21 to 35,000 depending on the definition of an army reservist like Germany Poland two plans troop expansion by 2032 there is a desire to have the military number over 200,000 that's including territorial Army reservists but excluding volunteer servicemen previous defense Ministry had announced a 2035 plan to reach 195,000 professional troops and Cadets 50,000 territorial Army servicemen and 50,000 more volunteer military servicemen with all those future plans considered and with the current Figures it's plausible that sometime in 2029 Germany will have something like 120,000 active ground troops in addition to something like 40,000 or so Grand troop reservists Poland in turn seems to be on track to fill some 110,000 active ground troops added by 880,000 members of the territorial Army and volunteer military service give or take but it's not the army that would get to move first it would be the Air Force the war would start both sides trying to strike enemy air bases air defenses Logistics Depots and any large concentration of enemy land power Germany would be in a visibly better position today it's far ahead of Poland in terms of combat aircraft but even in 2029 with all the Polish purchases that ratio would not change much as Germany too is getting new planes delivery of 35 f-35s is scheduled to end in 2029 additional 30 eight Euro Fighters have also been ordered with deliveries ending in 2030 those will however replace the oldest current Euro Fighters Poland is on course to get all of their 36 additional fa50 lighted tag Jets delivered by 2029 initial f-35s have already been produced for Poland so by 2029 around 30 might be actually delivered Poland also has two Swedish AI awok like aircraft while Germany doesn't use platforms also by 2029 Poland should have four radar aerosats in service those Aid in air surveillance trading in survivability of an awax aircraft for much longer Mission endurance but crucially they also offer ground surveillance from a few hundred kilm away all those would help Poland defensively to better organize its Air Forces and partially mitigate German fighter jet numbers German neuro Fighters are larger than polish f-16s and are generally more capable almost all Euro Fighters should be retrofitted with Aisa Radars by 2029 as the funding for modernization has already been secured Poland 2 will modernize their f-16s upgrading them to V standard getting them similar Raiders and enabling them to use a variety of advanced weapons looking at other customers it's likely all will be modernized in time Poland will also be operating some South Korean fa50 light attack planes but those are second echelon forces they have a small raadar and they will use Sidewinder X missiles their main role will be delivering Jam's Maverick missiles and so on on parts of the battlefield where enemy air defenses aren't really present German tornado ecrs are used for electronic jamming and suppression of enemy air defenses but they're old systems and probably not very effective against modern air defenses German trainers are based in the US and they are likely to stay there as they Effectiveness in combat would be minimal polish trainers except for fa50 would also likely not see any combat missions Germany is likely to get all of its newly ordered AMS delivered and the latest meteor contract is going to run upward of 300 additional missiles short range Irish is where Germany is going to bit a bit short as most have been sent to Ukraine and it will take time to replenish stocks meteor however might hold some Edge over even the newest am by going on the offensive the German air force would dedicate part of its numerical superiority to carrying air to ground weapons meaning the gap between the number of air-to-air configured planes would be somewhat smaller but still in German favor though when polish ample air defenses are included it's likely Germany too would not be able to project its air power much past the front line not without losses that would be unsustainable in the long run Sam systems are CR critical in not letting the opponent just bomb you into Oblivion Germany currently has seven Patriot batteries upgraded to work with P three missiles as well that's after it gave three batteries to Ukraine six medium-range Irish T batteries are also in order by 2027 Germany will probably manage to replace the seven old Patriots with eight new batteries sporting new Radars by 20129 that's a lot of sand batteries but Poland is aiming to have more the only some will come online by 2029 right now it's getting rid of the remaining Soviet stuff and is procuring Western Sams however most of the planned polish Sams will be of shorter reach while this video will not mention the Navies as the war in the Seas would be of little consequence here we'll just add that the larger Sam systems on ships could also be used to help defend some coastal areas Germany is somewhat ahead here the size of the battlefield is such that both sides aircraft could reach pretty much any part of its opponent's country in theory in practice Germany's much more numerous Air Force and quite a decent Sam Network would mean Poland would be on the defensive when it comes to the air War polish planes would be somewhat less capable in the average as well so the best Poland could do is use them for air defense and maybe very rarely to do some harassment strikes on the front line current ground attack inventory favors Germany and that won't likely change by 2029 even when we increase the Polish one proportionally to account for f-35s and f50s German bomb inventory May remain similar all of their Euro Fighters will be multi-roll by 2029 but the overall Fleet will be 30 planes smaller than today in the end these are just projections and they're likely not going to be super accurate where Poland does have some Advantage is in Long Range missiles cruise missiles and ballist ones the much talked about 900 JM cruise missile requirement for Poland may not be fully met by 2029 but the 2024 contract for a few hundred more missiles should put Poland at roughly 500 JM missiles by 2029 compared to the German Taurus cruise missile jum is newer longer ranged and a bit stealthier both sides also have some Modern anti- ship missiles which can double as GPS guided cruise missiles though Poland will have many more to spare by 2029 in addition to cruise missiles Poland got semachs and similar Korean missiles it's highly likely Poland will have a few times more s missiles than it has today Germany does not use such weapons but Poland having some more long range standoff missiles wouldn't matter that much the figures are still far too low to really neutralize either opponent's bases or industry and neither side could afford to follow up the missile strikes with deep Air Force for bomb runs to really exploit those early missile strikes Germany's Ed and Rader Imaging Recon satellites might allow for some Target tracking though Germany doesn't really have high resolution Optical satellites which are for example useful for Target damage assessment after missile strikes then again Poland locks high resolution satellites all together drones would of course be used in huge numbers for both Recon and weapons delivery but except for the bigger ones it's possible to get an accurate number for both sides Plus in 5 years time it's likely both will have procured hundreds if not thousands of various small drones that's not counting the smallest quadcopter class Poland would need a bit more time to assemble its territorial Army reservists But ultimately the total number of troops deployed within a month would favor Poland by that time Germany might take some small bits of Polish territory mostly held by the Air Force Edge the front line would quickly stabilize especially the northern part where River odor would make a natural barrier there odor is 200 M wide on average narrowing to still impressive 100 m before River Vara joins it those widths would be quite impossible for large Soldier and vehicle formations when the enemy Army is waiting for you on the other Bank River loation nice alongside the remaining 150 km of the Border would also be an obstacle though potentially a crossable one however the older river is often quite shallow at most places at 1 to 2 m deep so pontoons would still be required for Logistics and such but smaller incursions of amphibious vehicles or tanks traversing the river floor could be possible Poland would have more tanks and ifvs to attempt that but given that Logistics would still be lacking after such an attack and given that German air force would be striking those polish Vehicles it would not be a smart thing to do even today Poland has many more armored vehicles than Germany and with new stuff contracted to come in the future it's plausible that by 2029 the quality of Hardware will also favor the Polish side when it comes to tanks Germany is getting some new leopards 2 A8 but Poland is getting a bunch of other tanks it has received some abrames and K2 Panthers from us and South Korean stocks and is getting newly built ones delivered older Abram say will also get modernized local production of K2 tanks is planned to start in 2026 but it's unlikely many would be built by 2029 since as many as 800 k2s are eventually planned for late 2030s its plausible Leos and older tanks will still be in service by 2029 infantry fighting vehicles are used to carry troops into comat and provide direct Firepower with their small caliber guns and anti-tank missiles Germany has more modern and heavier more capable ifvs today but by 2029 that might change Germany is currently making 50 more pumat though funding was approved for over 200 those will however be replacing older Mars boxer wield ifvs are also being made Poland will be replacing their bmps with domestic borsook Vehicles roughly analogous to the German Puma their number was interpolated from the total plan to deliver thousand ifvs by 2035 there are of course many other vehicles in both armies but let's just say that Poland doesn't rely on armored personnel carriers a lot and by 2029 there may be even fewer as Poland focuses on heavier Vehicles instead when it comes to attack helicopters Germany is planning to replace their tiger helicopters with much lighter Choppers for long range anti-tank missile combat 62 to 80 2 might be ultimately ordered with only some configured for combat but tiger retirement is to start only in 2031 Poland is going to get rid of their remaining M24 Hinds and replace them with us Apaches 96 Apaches are to be delivered from 2028 to 2032 so we are assuming a third is delivered by the start of the war plentiful polish artillery would help mitigate the German eding air power for a while Poland today has some three times more artillery though many are old types scheduled for retirement rocket artillery systems are again several times more numerous than German ones the 122 mm caliber will be largely replaced by better systems in the future currently Germany is procuring between 22 and 28 more paner Hobbits at 2000 by 2029 Germany should have in total around 170 or so self-propelled hiters Germany is also planning to order five pulse mrl systems which can hold a variety of rockets it's possible such a small number could be delivered by 2029 and possibly 100 new mortar vehicles with Nemo turrets will be procured future polish artillery procurements include getting K9 howitzers from Korea and building crab howitzers in Poland of which some will go to Ukraine old Soviet guaza Cuts should all be retired by 2029 though Czech made hoit might still be in service by then by 2026 K9 ho will start being built in Poland but probably not too many will get delivered by 2029 when it comes to Rocket artillery the picture is even more modeled possibly all of the old 122 mm mrls should be retired by 2029 Poland also order 290 South Korean Chun Mo launchers current plan is to have all deliver by 2029 in addition to that Poland is also getting more highr launchers from the US so far A little over 100 more have been signed for while earlier news mentioned the need for almost 500 hres it's possible Cedric acquirement was split between Korean and US systems even more High Mar launchers will arrive but it's unlikely many more could enter service by 2029 Poland is going all in on Rocket artillery so it's no no wonder it has more GPS guided rockets for Frontline work given the current order of 100 more HR like launchers another 10,000 gimler missiles are likely by 2029 of course the brunt of the artillery work would be done using shells so how is Poland doing with regards to artillery shell production unlike Germany Poland currently can't make complete artillery shells itself it's currently working on a plan to change that somewhere around 2028 or so it wants to be able to produce 100% domestic shells at 100,000 pieces per year Germany's Rin metal firm plans to produce 700,000 shells a year from 2025 though that's using its multiple factories in various countries still given the rules of this scenario War do not forbid overboard or movement of supplies it's very likely Germany would be able to outs Supply Poland in artillery shells probably for less money and as extra polish shells over the domestic 100,000 a year would likely have to be bought overseas at exorbitant prices so over time the Polish numerical Edge and artillery might get partially eroded partly because of German air strikes hunting polish artillery and partly because at a certain point polish artillery would be running low on ammo as polish industry and economy would be procuring a few times fewer artillery rounds than Germany per year all for an artillery Arsenal which is a few times bigger ordering tens of thousands of guided rocket artillery rounds from Korea and US would be allowed and possible but such orders take time to materialize Germany is a larger economy with a larger industry in purchasing parity terms the size difference between economies is three times but if third-party products would have to be bought then Germany would be even more ahead with over five times bigger nominal GDP for a long-term war with mass mobilization included Poland is worse off due to its smaller population currently approximately 200,000 males reach the age of 18 each year in Germany roughly 370,000 males reach the same age per year overall the Polish Army of 2029 would be sized up to totally hold off Germany not really letting it anywhere far into Poland however that would not last forever if the war is allowed to last for for years even accounting for all the hardware Poland is scheduled to get even in the 2030s eventually the German industry a few times larger economy and double the population would start wearing Poland out even within just 6 months of the war German's Army numbers would again be superior to polish ones once the freshly mobilized civilians are trained and cracks in Polish lines would slowly appear Germany could even ramp up production of Euro Fighter combat aircraft to comp compensate for losses while Poland would have to pay large sums to the likes of Korean Aerospace and locked Martin and wait years to get some more planes the Polish military of 2029 would be impressively strong no doubt about it but every country has its limits and remember bov may talk about war but only real peace can bring us all together