What Betting Odds and Cookies Say on Who’s Winning 2024

Hey good morning everyone. I hope you had a good weekend. I also hope you saw the feature we did talking to voters in Georgia. I mean again just kind of getting word on the street of how people are kind of maybe placing their votes or maybe going to vote. First up, look the elections are tomorrow and we're going to be having some special election coverage here and with our sister media NTD. The Epoch Times and NTD, we're going to be doing live streaming all day long starting from 2 p.m. That's going to be American Thought Leaders, then 3 p.m. is going to be Crossroads. So different time schedule tomorrow. 3 p.m. is going to be Crossroads, but again we're going to be broadcasting all day different programs. So again we're going to continue after Crossroads with Roman at Facts Matter. So we will not be doing the show at 10 30 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow. Instead again we're going to be doing Crossroads at 3 p.m. Eastern time. That's noon Pacific time and happy daylight savings time also. Now look tomorrow, same place as usual, different time. And we'll be back to normal schedule again 10 30 a.m. on Wednesday. Now look folks, as you're all aware the 2024 elections are tomorrow. Today, tomorrow is the kind of last day for it. I guess we have a different election system now. It used to be it was one day to vote. Now it's a long time. I early voted. I'm sold on it. Now look, in just over 24 hours we are going to start seeing the counting of votes that will decide the next four years for this country. And alongside official polling, some of the key indicators on who's winning the elections are betting odds and swing state cookies. In today's episode I want to have a look at where the bets are going between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. And I also want to go into the cookie polls. That's right, those of you not in the U.S. may know that cookies oftentimes show who may win the 2024 elections or elections every year. Now first off, let me show you what the betting odds are saying for the 2020 elections. This is things are at right now. Now look, the bets at the time were in, you know, when President Biden was running for office, back four years ago it was more in his favor. Again, they were showing that, right? And given that Biden ended up being named the winner back in 2020, well look, the betting polls ended up being mostly accurate, suggesting again that the betting polls are, you know, relatively accurate who's going to win. Now at the time back in 2020, Biden was averaging around 63 or 64 percent in terms of the bets, right? Trump was averaging just around 35 percent four years ago. So look, if you're just going by who people were betting were going to win, it was leaning towards Biden four years ago. But things are actually different now. Look, that brings us to where we're at right now today. This time around, at least, you know, as of Saturday night, and I went a little further back than today because, you know, bets changed last minute because people try to swing them and so on. Really, this I think shows where people were placing their bets leading up to it. And so Saturday night, Trump is winning, at least again on the betting odds, right? Trump is averaging around 56 percent. Harris is averaging around 42 percent. Now again, that's a closer margin than in 2020, but it is leaning in Trump's favor right now. You could say it's still kind of close. It's a good margin, but it's still kind of close. Now that's where people are putting their money, right? That's where people are kind of, you know, putting their personal interests aside from But we also have other forms of debatably more accurate polling suggesting who's going to win the elections. That is cookies. Now again, those of you not in the U.S., hear me out. Now why are cookie polls taken seriously? Why do we talk about who's buying cookies and why people buying cookies is going to, again, you know, maybe determine the outcome of the elections? The reason that this is taken seriously is because the cookie polls tend to be done in swing areas of swing states. Basically, here's what happens. Bakeries come out, and there's some that do it every four years, bakeries come out in these areas and they make cookies for the major candidates. And the number of cookies that people buy, again, in these key counties of swing states gives kind of an unofficial poll of who people in the swing states might end up voting for. Some of the cookie polls have actually been surprisingly accurate. Although, look, 2020, some said, you know, Trump was going to win. The cookie polls were actually going for Trump. Trump ended up not winning, depending on how you view it. So take that as you will. But first off, here's what one of the bigger cookie polls is saying out of Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania right now. Washington Examiner. It says, a bakery near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania is conducting its own presidential poll with cookie sales for each candidate. And it said Oakmont Bakery started its election cookie poll in the early 2000s with less than three weeks until former President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris face off in the election day. The bakery has said customers have bought more than 21,000 Trump cookies versus around 6,200 Harris cookies. So Trump is massively leading the cookie polls. Again, by a good margin, right? Now, again, Harris has 6,200 cookies as of October 20th. Trump had 21,000. Now, it notes that customers could also pick a neutral candidate cookie, which had more than 9,000 sales. And so even if you combine the Kamala cookies and the neutral cookies, Trump still went in the cookie poll. Now, look, this is a longtime tradition. It says for that bakery, which sold more Trump cookies in 2020 and 2016 than his opponents at the time, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. And in 2012, the Mitt Romney cookies beat out Barack Obama. So you could say the 2012 ones weren't really accurate. Mitt Romney did not win that election. But again, that emphasizes that this is kind of a swing county. This is an independent area. And again, they wanted Mitt Romney back in 2012, suggesting, again, that these are voters who are kind of, again, swing voters. These are voters who could go either way. Now, look, Pittsburgh, that area where the bakery is, it's pretty important for this election. It has been seeing more political TV ads, Pittsburgh, than anywhere else in the country, just emphasizing how much focus both candidates are putting on Pittsburgh. And look, Pennsylvania overall is being regarded as one of the most important of the seven swing states this time around. The state has mostly gone Democrat before, but it went for Trump in 2016. Kind of like the opposite of Georgia, right? Georgia was voting Republican since like 1992 or something like that. But they went for Biden last time. Pennsylvania is kind of the opposite. Mostly Democrat, went for Trump in 2016. So how about the other swing state bakeries? Well, let me show you what's happening out of Minnesota. Another cookie poll. This is from a local media on October 30th. It says a bakery in Minnesota is sharing the weekly results of its ongoing presidential cookie poll. The red, white, and blue sugar cookies at Hansinch Bakery and Coffee in Red Wing feature buttercream frosting as well as one of two names, Trump or Harris. It notes that as of Monday, again, October 30th, former president Donald Trump was at 6,743 cookies sold to vice president Kamala Harris's 3,385 cookies. According to week 12 results that the bakery posted on TikTok. So depending on which you're going by, Trump is leading by double margins in cookies, right? The cookie polls out of Minnesota and Pennsylvania, they tend to be the ones people focus on, you know, on the cookie poll front. Again, cookie polls are not absolute by any means. They're right. They've often been right, but not all the time. And they do work as indicators, which is why people take them seriously, right? They show indications of which way the swing states are going. That's why they're taken seriously. Now this time around, just kind of another factor with this, you could also argue that maybe they're not accurate this time because people are actually driving from different counties or even from different states to go and buy these cookies. And because you have people from other places going to buy them, maybe it's not as, you know, indicating, it doesn't indicate as well maybe what the local voters are going for. Take it as you will, again. Now look, but if we go by official polling, right, we talked about the betting odds leaning towards Trump, the cookie polls, at least by double margins voting for Trump, the odds in terms of polling, actual polling, is also important. Now look, for the most part, the polls, again, leading up to now, for the most part, they had Trump and Harris within just a few percentage points from each other. A lot of this is going to change depending on which media you read. If you're reading a lot of the kind of left-wing media, you're going to see oftentimes that, you know, Trump afraid, Harris winning in the polls. If you read a lot of right-wing media, they'll say Harris afraid, you know, Trump is winning in the polls. In reality, they've been very close. They've been within a few percentage points of each other. And, you know, again, it goes by which poll you're looking at, but most of the trustworthy ones have been pretty close. Now, look, by late October, a lot of the polls were showing Harris in the lead. But hear me out, right, within the first few days of November, just, you know, leading up to this, they've been swinging in Trump's favor. And so they fluctuate, right, by late October, Harris was like one or two points ahead going by which one he went by. Now they're in Trump's favor. Trump is actually winning the polls, at least again, just as of just recently. Now, and again, that's only within a few percentage points, which many people would say is within the margin of error. Although some people would say that all polls are within the margin of error because Trump tends to outperform the polls. Overall, though, we can say that polling is still pretty close. I can tell you something interesting, though, based on my own personal experience. I was in Georgia just recently. Again, I did a special feature on it. We published it on Friday. Some of you may have seen it. If you haven't, go watch it. And in that special episode I was doing in Georgia, again, Georgia now being a swing state, I was talking to voters going to vote, coming out from early voting, also just doing kind of man-on-the-street interviews, just talking to people. I can tell you a lot of people who look like they're going to vote Trump will not tell you. And again, very few people recognized me in Georgia. And so I went up to some of them saying, hey, I'm doing again polling. I'm asking people who you think is going to win or who you're voting for. Most of the people voting for Kamala, most people voting Democrat were very eager to talk. A lot of the Democrats were very willing to talk, in my experience, when I'm just telling them I'm doing exit polling or doing polling. A lot of other people who looked like they're conservative, they would tell me things like, oh, you don't want to know who I'm voting for. Oh, you know, I'd rather keep that to myself. I don't want to talk about it. A lot of those people are the ones that I think could make polling inaccurate. And again, I think that's also why polling oftentimes is not quite dependable, frankly. Because especially in the current political climate, where people are being demonized and attacked and labeled, like, oh, you know, I don't want to name all the names of people. You've seen them, right? Calling people fascist and everything else. A lot of people don't want to get pulled into a conflict, especially people who are not confrontational, especially people who might think they'll be attacked, especially if they go on TV talking about it. A lot of people will not say who they're voting for because they don't want to be attacked. In my personal experience, that could be a factor that will significantly change the reliability of polling. Because again, a lot of people who are voting Trump will not say it. And frankly, it's a self-created problem, I think, by a lot of these agencies that do this because many of them, you know, have been engaged in attacking voters, criticizing them, attacking their views and so on. And so, you know, what do you expect where people don't want to say it, right? I do think that'll make it, I do think because of that the unrecorded polling will lean more in favor of Trump. And I'm saying this based on experience because I was just doing, again, exit polling personally on the ground. I was doing exit polling in Georgia, doing interviews, asking people, you know, who they're going to vote for. And again, I have a special feature on that. Folks, meanwhile, something else is happening right now. A squirrel has become a political symbol. And Peanut the squirrel, this cute little squirrel wearing a cowboy hat, that little squirrel could swing the 2024 US elections. I'll be talking more about this after I come back from a quick break. Experts agree. 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Hey, welcome back. Folks, a squirrel has become a political focus in the United States and could actually impact possibly the outcome of the elections. That's right, a squirrel. Now, folks, let me show you first the squirrel in question. This is Peanut the squirrel. That friendly little guy could actually determine the outcome of our elections. That little squirrel could swing undecided voters, especially probably the younger voters. Basically, here's what happened, okay? A squirrel named Peanut became an internet celebrity. Here's what happened. A man going about his day found a mother squirrel that had been killed by a car, hit by a car, and there was a little baby orphan squirrel there. That man raised that squirrel. He posted videos of it online and that little squirrel became an internet celebrity. And then what happened? Well, New York State determined the squirrel was illegal. It was an illegal squirrel. State officials sent a squad of officers and agencies to seize Peanut the squirrel from its home. And then they had Peanut killed, euthanized by the state. Also, they killed the raccoon. They killed the guy's raccoon as well. That was Fred the raccoon, who was also a rescue animal. Both animals, the squirrel and the raccoon, were euthanized by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation. Let me show what ABC says on it. ABC News said this on the case. They say the State Department of Environmental Conservation took the animals Wednesday from Longo's home, it's the owner, an animal sanctuary in rural Pine City near the Pennsylvania border. The agency said it had gotten complaints that wildlife was being kept illegally and potentially unsafely in a sanctuary, right? State law requires, it says, people to get a license if they wish to own a wild animal. Longo has said that he was working to get Peanut, also known as Peanut or Peanut, depending on how you spell it, certified as an educational animal. He was in the process of doing it. The DEC and the Chemung County Health Department said Friday that the squirrel and raccoon were euthanized, so they'd be contested for rabies after Peanut bit someone involved in the investigation. Folks, Peanut went down fighting and they killed Fred for some reason too. Now it's that Longo said Saturday that he didn't see Peanut bite anybody during what he described as an hours-long, heavy-handed search. The authorities haven't spoken with him since they left the property, he said, and he added, quote, honestly, this still kind of feels surreal that the state that I live in actually targeted me and took two of the most beloved animals on this planet away, didn't even quarantine them, they took them from my house and just killed them, he said. Now folks, here's a question for you all. How many government agencies does it take to kill a squirrel? If you guessed seven, you're right. Seven government agencies were involved in the raid of this home and the killing of a squirrel and a raccoon. Seven agencies. And on that note too, again, Longo said that he did not see them bite the agents. The agents claim again that the squirrel bit one of them and they needed to test him for rabies. I don't know why they killed the raccoon as well, but they did. The owner, Mark Longo, made a GoFundMe. He's calling for justice for Fred and Peanut and he says this, quote, it is with profound sorrow that we announce the loss of our beloved Peanut the squirrel and Fred the raccoon. On October 30th, the DEC made the devastating decision to euthanize these precious animals despite our heartfelt pleas for compassion. Now, beyond all of this though, what has happened since this, and I don't think anybody could have seen this coming, Peanut the squirrel has become a kind of like political martyr. Peanut the squirrel has become like the emblem of government overreach in terms of the narratives on crime and so on, mostly among, you know, the right wing and the conservatives. That squirrel is now a political focal point and that's happening right before the presidential election. Critics are referring to this as an example of government overreach and since, you know, New York is a democrat state, it's also being used as an example of political policy, right? People are tying this into political policy and they're noting, hey, you know, why is it that we have Tren de Aragua recruiting kids to go rob people at gunpoint in Times Square? Why is it that we have all these other issues where, again, if a Tren de Aragua kid, right, a gang member from Venezuela robs somebody at gunpoint and they get caught, they go to family court and they don't go to prison. They're left back out on the streets, right? Many people view that as just one example of kind of, you know, this light on crime type policy. Why is it that that's okay, but they need seven government agencies to go take somebody's pet squirrel and then kill it? People have also pointed out, you know, during the raid that Longo, again, was basically, you know, very heavily handed treated. He had to have escorts if he wanted to use the bathroom. They were questioning his wife's immigration status and, you know, he says he was basically treated like a drug dealer when he just had a pet squirrel, right? Now, Elon Musk, who's been campaigning with Donald Trump, he has been particularly focused on Peanut the Squirrel and noting also the political implications, right, the political symbology that Peanut now represents. Take this post, for example. Now, look, given that Peanut was killed in New York and New York's, again, led by Democrats, Elon Musk is suggesting that Democrat politics are ignoring some of the serious crimes in the city and have instead focused a large amount of resources on killing a squirrel. And based on that, again, this is being used as a point of criticism of kind of a dual system of justice as they're framing it, right? Another post from Elon Musk with over 8.2 million views has the owners explaining on camera how they believe they were treated like criminals, like drug dealers, as their home was raided by seven agencies and as Peanut the Squirrel and Fred the Raccoon were taken and killed. Now, Elon responded to a post by Sean McGuire that said, quote, blue states seem to care more about euthanizing squirrels than arresting burglars and drug dealers. And there's been a long list of similar posts like this. I won't go over all of them. Basically, this is where the memes are at. Basically, they're connecting the case with what are viewed as light on crime policies and they're questioning how killing a squirrel was deemed more important than the forms of serious crime we're watching, especially in New York. Musk also posted an illustration with a Jedi squirrel and that Jedi squirrel picture had over 18.8 million views by November 2nd and it's stated in a reference to Obi-Wan Kenobi from Star Wars, quote, if you strike me down, I will become more powerful than you could possibly imagine. And he attributed that to Obi Peanut Kenobi. Now look, it hasn't just been Elon Musk either. Actually, a lot of the conservative influencers on X, they were also posting about Peanut. Peanut has become like the flag, the standard bearer as they're going to the elections on November 5th. And they're also pointing to similar issues with crime policy, right? The memes, the images, the funny pictures, and so on are making rounds on this as well. If you've been looking at X or any site that has memes, you've probably seen pictures of squirrels wearing little MAGA hats or carrying guns and so on like that, right? It's about on par in terms of the meme reaction to this as the whole, you know, they're eating the cats meme. A lot of the posts have millions upon millions of views. Like, this is crazy viral. This little squirrel again has died a martyr. And it's very possible also that our election could be influenced by a squirrel in a With that said, the 2024 presidential elections are coming up fast and actually several states are preparing for potential civil unrest. And there's also possible issues tomorrow when people actually go to officially cast their votes. I'll be talking more about what's happening and what is being expected only on EpicTV.com. So if you're joining me on YouTube, Facebook, XRumble, now's the time to click on that link in the description below or in the live chat and join us for the rest of this episode and the live Q&A on EpicTV.com. And just a reminder also, the elections are tomorrow, right, November 5th. I'm going to be doing a special coverage on this, Epic Times overall. Epic Times and our sister media NTD will be doing live streaming all day, starting from 2 p.m. with American Thought Leaders, 3 p.m. with us here at Crossroads, and then continuing to roam with Facts Matter. We will not be doing the show at 10 30 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow. Instead, Crossroads is going to be at 3 p.m. So not 10 30, 3. So join me at 3 p.m. For those of you on Pacific Time, that's noon, right, 12 p.m. Same place as usual, different time. We will be back on our normal schedule again, 10 30 a.m. on Wednesday. All right, folks, we're going to jump right now, so make sure you're clicking on that link, and I will see you on EpicTV.com.