Voters Shift From 2020 to 2024 Presidential Elections

Welcome back. I'm Tiffany Meyer. President-elect Trump has secured over four and a half million more votes than Vice President Harris, and Trump appears to have flipped a sought-after Democratic suburban area in Pennsylvania. That's Bucks County. NDD's election data analyst Kevin Hogan tells us how voter sentiment has changed across the country from four years ago and why Trump was able to take the lead there. Yes, well, at least at this snapshot in time, former President Trump is leading by over four and a half million votes. That could change because there are a lot of votes yet to be counted in deep blue California, but certainly the leader will not change. So considering that number, the nation as a whole shifted to former President Trump from the last election about eight percent. So that's a very significant shift. And there are a couple of reasons for this. Former President Trump built out his coalition of white working class voters to include a multi-ethnic working class coalition. And also he improved with the black male vote eight points and the Hispanic male vote about nine points. And then he also improved on his performance from 2020 until now among those young men. And that's seen probably as a reflection of visits on, for example, Joe Rogan's podcast. And Vice President Kamala Harris had a few challenges. She had a short time frame from when Biden dropped out of the race to Election Day. And also her strategy to put abortion at the center of the contest didn't pan out quite as well as she was expecting with the big surge in the women vote because it was only a marginal increase that she got. And there's poor public judgment of the border crisis that we've seen in the U.S. Southwest border, as well as inflation, which affects virtually every American. And Harris struggled by association because President Biden has very low approval ratings and Harris being in his administration, that did not pan out too well for her, of course. And then she spoke on an interview with ABC's The View and they asked her if she would do anything different from Biden. And she said, quote, there is not a thing that comes to mind. And then the Trump campaign worked to push that video out to tens of millions of voters shortly thereafter. So where did this eight point shift to former President Trump take place in the United States? Well, everywhere, in every single state in the whole country, it shifted to former President Trump, except Washington State that shifted to Harris from 2020, about a quarter point, point three points. So that was the only one. Every other state from like a 10, 12 point margin down to about one point, every single state shifted to former President Trump. So that even includes areas like the congressional districts, for example, Nebraska's second district, which Harris won, shifted to Trump about three points. I'll put that in yellow so you can see it shifted to Trump about three points. And even Maine's second district went to Trump. That was about one point. And even Washington, D.C., which is a very deep blue stronghold, that shifted to former President Trump and now President-elect Trump by about three points. So you can see it's happening across the board here. And now it was the swing states that decided it. And so those shifted to former President Trump, President-elect Trump, six points in Arizona. Again, they're still counting these votes, six points in Nevada, North Carolina, two points, Georgia, two points as well. And then you have three points in Pennsylvania, one point in Wisconsin and four points in Michigan. So you can see the battlegrounds shifted to Trump. Of course, he lost many of them in 2020, but now in 2024, he picked them up. We're also seeing a very unique trend in which states that have a larger Democrat margin in which Biden won by more in 2020, they're showing a bigger shift to former President Trump, President-elect Trump. That's 12 points in California. That's the most. And then also 12 points in New York as well, nine points in Illinois. And I'm just going to zoom in on the Northeast right here so you can get an idea. Again, a lot of Democrat strongholds in this area. New Jersey shifted to Trump, 11 points. And then also in Massachusetts, nine points. And also Maryland, that's 10 points. So you can see former President Trump picking up a lot of ground in these deep blue states, although not winning them, but still driving up a lot of the margins in those areas. Now we're going to look at some of these key counties that former President Trump managed to flip, which allowed him to win the presidency in part, at least. And for example, that is right here in Southeast Pennsylvania, Bucks County. This is a collar county around Philadelphia. It's a suburban county. So I'm just going to circle that for you here. And we're going to drill down into it to look at some of the margins. Again, these numbers are changing all the time because they're counting votes. There are a lot of provisional ballots, but if you just take a look here at Bucks County and lock this, this is a county that Trump is carrying by about 1300 votes. So again, that may change as they finish counting, but for him and his supporters, that's much better, even though it's only a handful of hundred votes, that's much better for him and his supporters than the 17,000 votes that President Biden won this county by back in 2020. A couple other key counties that Trump managed to flip in this election cycle were Northampton County. That's a state bellwether, very important. And also Erie County. These are very important battleground areas that Trump was able to flip and part of the reason why he was able to carry the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. A couple other areas, for example, right here in Michigan, you got Saginaw County, very important, although not very populated because it's a very purple area, a lot of swing voters. And as you can see back in 2020, Biden carried, it was blue. Now it's red. And then we're just going to slide over here to Wisconsin and take a quick peek. This is Sauk County right down here, and this went to Biden in 2020, but Trump managed to flip that. And again, not as many voters as some of the other counties in the state, for example, Milwaukee and Dane County, but very competitive area need to do really well there. And we're going to go down to Florida really quick to take a look at some of these other swing counties here that you can consider swing counties. That's Miami-Dade. You see it's red back in 2020, Biden carried it. And then also Pinellas County and a couple others. You see, they flipped to red in this election. And there are quite a few counties out in Southern California. So we'll take a quick peek at that. You could see a lot of red right here. And then in 2020, like even from San Bernardino up to Fresno, Biden carried those, but Trump was able to flip them. And also some counties flipping in Texas and elsewhere. Now this is really important because it's not just the margins, it's the margins that also matter. So if Trump was able to do well in some of these areas, like for example, right here, we'll zoom in on Detroit. A big issue for Harris was that there was going to be low turnout among those Arab Americans, because they're not satisfied with the way that the Biden-Harris administration is handling the war in Gaza. So when you drill down into this county right here, again, this is Detroit, Dearborn, high Arab American population. You see that Harris, again, this election, 2024, didn't have quite the same turnout levels as 2020, but still, she has a lead of about 247,000 votes. But you look back to 2020, President Biden carried this county with 332,000. So a significant drop in that particular county, which is not necessarily what the Harris campaign would have wanted, of course. Now in Washtenaw County, this is right next door. This is Ann Arbor. So college town, a lot of liberal voters here. Harris got about 98,000 votes, whereas President Biden got about 100,000 votes. So not in the lead, of course. That's not a dramatic drop, but it is somewhat, because you look at former President Trump, President-elect Trump got 56,000 votes in 2020, 2024. He bumped that up. So that's about 2,500 votes or so that he was able to pick up. Whereas Harris, 156.9 and 157.1, that's only a couple of hundred votes, maybe less. So that's really not much change, whereas former President Trump picked up a lot of support. And why is that? Because again, this is Ann Arbor. There are a lot of liberal voters there. In the city of Ann Arbor, Trump improved his margins by 17 points. 2,024 numbers according to the Federal Election Commission. As you can see here, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris spent just under $900 million each compared to Donald Trump's, who spent just over $350 million. So both Biden and Harris doubled Trump in spending. Well, how'd they do it? Fundraising. Party fundraising here. Again, these are 2024 numbers for their presidential campaign. Look at this. Democrats, just over $2 billion in fundraising compared to Republicans, $630 million, tripling them in fundraising. And if we look at this by individual candidates, both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris fundraised approximately a billion dollars this year compared to Donald Trump, who fundraised just under $400 million. So TIFF, despite all that fundraising, all that spending, it wasn't quite enough to get them over the top at the end. Back to you at the desk.