2024 Short Course World Championships Preview | SWIMSWAM BREAKDOWN

Welcome back to another episode of the Swim Swam Breakdown. I am your host, Coleman Hodges, joined by Sophie Kaufman and the Dirty Double himself, NC2A champion, Brendan Burns. We are here on this fine Monday morning and we are going to be talking short course world championships. We're gonna be previewing the ins and outs of this, as Sophie mentioned off camera, already very chaotic meet. We've had a lot of sudden dropouts just over the last week. Leon Marchand is no longer participating. I think that's the biggest one, but we've had quite a few defending, or I guess previous short course world champ, Ben Proud, just pulled out. Dai Iseto has a rib injury as he's going for his seventh 400 IM short course world title in a row. So there's all kinds of madness swarming around this meet, but I think it's gonna be really exciting regardless. And we're gonna talk about it for the next 45 to 60 minutes. So first off, I think the women's side is quite a bit stronger in terms of contingency and athletes who are gonna be there. Sophie, I'm gonna throw this first one to you. Just in terms of the female athletes you are excited to see race, specifically in short course meters, who is topping your list? Yeah, I mean, I think it has to be Kate Douglas and Gretchen Walsh. That feels like a very boring answer, but I feel like they do have to be top of the list. I mean, I agree that in terms of the big names who are gonna be at this meet, the women's side certainly has a lot more visibility on that front, especially because you've had Regan Smith, Kate Douglas, and Gretchen Walsh kind of lighting it up already in short course meters this year, and just going so fast that it's now exciting to think of, okay, this is a championship meet. What have they kind of saved up throughout the World Cup circuit, and then also Gretchen is doing NCAAs, so. Brendan, Verona, to you. Females that you're particularly excited to see go at it in short course meters. Yeah, so Sophie mentioned a few Americans. I'm excited to see Kylie Moss from Canada. I feel like she's kind of maybe a little bit past her peak, but I still feel like she's really internationally dangerous in the backstrokes. And also, Lilly King. I mean, she's not really known for doing short course recently. She had an amazing career at Indiana, but now she's really kind of sending it all in as she goes into the final year of her career, and I'm excited to see what she does. We know from Lilly King, having spoken to it already, this was her last Olympics, or so she said. So Paris was it, but she's still going at it, still training at Indiana. I just saw her a few weeks ago there throwing down some really solid times. Women's breaststroke, I think, will be really interesting because we'll have a lot of variety. And because Evgenia Chikanova, the long course world record holder, will be competing for the first time since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine started. And she will be competing under a neutral flag, as will several other Russian and Belarusian athletes. Do you guys think Chikanova can challenge Kate Douglas in the 200 breast? I think, I mean, I have Kate winning, Kate Douglas winning this still. Like at 2.12, she's two seconds faster than Chikanova has been, I think. And I think it's going to hopefully be a great race, but I do think that Douglas, she's just on such a tear right now. I think she's winning. I agree, I think Kate is going to win. With the information that we have right now, Kate is the best short course meters and short course yards. But I think what Chikanova has going for her, other than being the long course world record holder, is that we don't really know what she can do, short course meters, outside of Russia. Now that this will be her big return to an international stage, maybe she will find some energy on back being on the international stage, and she'll be able to step up and challenge Kate Douglas. But that could be probably one of the better women's races at this meet. I feel like Budapest is a nice middle ground, too. It's on the eastern side of Western Europe. And so I know Americans like going to Budapest a lot and racing there. I feel like for Russians, it's probably fairly familiar. And Chikanova seems like a better long course breaststroker to me, especially compared to Kate Douglas. So I see Kate Douglas winning that race as well, but I do think it's really exciting to see Chikanova again, compete on the international stage. Staking on Kate Douglas, she's entered in five events. She was originally entered in six. She's already dropped one, which is the 50 fly. Still scheduled to swim 50 free, 100 free, two IM, two breast, oh, 100 IM as five events. Do you see her swimming all five individually as well as being a key piece on many USA relays? Well, I don't have this schedule memorized. Like I'll say that straight up. So I don't have a good sense of like what her potential conflicts are in terms of, you know, final sessions where she may be facing a potential double or even a triple if we're throwing a relay in there. I hope that I do. I hope she swims all of them. I mean, I think that if there was one she was going to drop, it may likely be the 50 free. You know, we've seen her choose the two IM over the 50 free before in long course meters. But, you know, maybe that, maybe the fact that she has made that choice in the past will inspire her to make a different one for this meet which is a lot less intense than the Olympics are. So while I know, I do hope that she's in all of them. I think that like, she's going to be, like I said like one of the most exciting women swimmers to watch at this meet. So for us, you know, as fans and people watching like the more she's in the pool, I feel like the better. I will say, I've got her potential schedule pulled up. She's got a double every single day if she does all five individual events and five relays. So it's interesting, they put in mixed 200 relays but they took out the 200, the single gender 200 relays. So there's no 200 free relay for men or women. There's no 200 medley relay for men or women but there is the mixed 200 free relay and the mixed 200 medley relay as well as the single gender 400 relays and the single gender 800 relays. Yeah, it's, I don't know. I don't exactly know how I feel about that. And there's mixed 400 relays also. So this schedule has Kate in five relays, five individual events. There's prelims, semis, finals of 50s and 100s, prelims, finals of 200 and above. Her only triple would come day four where she would swim the 200 breast final, the 100 IM final and the mixed 200 free relay final. Which, yeah, I don't see her scratching 200 breast or 100 IM. I feel like those are two events that she is a powerhouse in. And if anything, I feel like she'd be like, yeah, I'm good on the mixed relay. Like you could probably find someone else team USA. I think I thought it was like Devin Heroux who is like actually at the pool already. I think he reported that they're combining the medal ceremonies, that like they're doing men and women together and that like, everybody's gonna kind of be on the podium and they do the men's and then kind of the women's national anthems in succession. So like that's gonna condense the schedule too because like presumably it will be quicker to have them all process out together instead of one gender at a time. So that's also gonna make a tighter turnaround if you're trying to pull off a double and you've won a medal. There's so many events in this meet. I feel like this, I like that of making the podium efficient for lack of a better phrase, but I feel like they have run into this problem a lot where there's not enough time in the six days to maybe fit everything in in a reasonable amount of time and also display all your best swimmers and all the events that they maybe want to be swimming in. Like I feel like Summer McIntosh who we haven't even mentioned yet, but it will be competing in this. And I feel like is one of if not the biggest name competing coming off of the Paris Olympic Games. Like I think she's entered in three or four events, but it would be really awesome to see her like really go at it and take on a full schedule. But yeah, due to the nature of this meet, I feel like there's just not always enough time to get everything in, which is kind of a bummer. Thoughts on adding more mixed relays, but discluding single gender relays? Brendan, I'm throwing this one to you. Before I get to that, I think I do have a thought on Kate's lineup. I think it just kind of depends on what her focus is for this meet. If she wants to take an Olympic approach and where she only wants to focus on the tuner breast and the tuner IM, and she just kind of wants the prestige of the Olympics and just kind of really going all in on a couple events and really focusing on winning, then I could see her dropping events. But at this meet, honestly, I think this is kind of just about chasing the bag like she did at the World Cup meets where she just wants to make cash money at this meet because it's a weak field. She's one of the best swimmers in the world. She can swim all these different events. And even if she does kind of spread herself thin and kind of takes on a grueling schedule, I think that she could be in the running for summer of the meet very, very easily. And she could also be on the women's relays for the United States. She's gonna be very, very strong and they'll be able to get on the podium pretty easily. So I think with Kate, I think it just kind of depends on what she wants from this meet. So go get the money. I think that's a really smart play for her. I agree. I think for quite a few athletes going to this meet, it's a huge cash opportunity. People are upset that in this post-Olympic year, people are dropping out of this meet or had previously committed and then not going. But for the people who are going, it is a good financial opportunity, I think. Single gender relays versus mixed relays. Which would you rather see as a swim fan? As a swim fan? I mean, at this meet, where it's already kind of shaping up to be less of a world championships than maybe even the Doha ones earlier this year, let's just do some mixed relays and see what happens. These rosters are looking really, really thin. With the single gender relays, there might be some traditional powerhouse countries, even like the United States on the men's side, where some of the relays really aren't performing to where we've kind of expected them to be. But when you do the mixed relays and you're only picking two of your best swimmers, the quality of the product is gonna be a lot better. I like that point a lot. Hadn't even considered that. And I guess it does also favor, as you said, rosters with limited numbers, who only have maybe a couple real superstars who are making finals or going to make a big relay impact. I'm looking at Swim Swam's world records for mixed short course meters, and we don't even, I say we, I keep the records. I'm in charge of Swim Swam's records, so this is all on me. But I only have 200 relays in here, so by the end of this meet, I will have to include 400 relays as well. So many mixed relays. So I think in short course, it also provides maybe a little bit more opportunity to switch up the lineups a little bit. I know we've seen, I know Kyle Chalmers anchored a short course mixed relay once and ran everyone down. It was pretty awesome to watch, and I think there's a little more opportunity for that, not only because there's more turns, but also just because, as you mentioned, Brendan, the rosters might not be 100%, and so there's a little, maybe we'll see some fun orders, which I always think is a highlight of mixed relays. So I wanna go back to Summer McIntosh for a sec. Two back, two fly, 400 IM, 400 free. How many, do you think Summer is going for world records? Do you think she's going for money? Do you think she's racing for fun? And do you think it's a travesty that she's not swimming the 200 IM? I don't think it's a travesty. I mean, as exciting as the Olympic final of the 200 IM was, I think that it's fine that she wants to try something else, and I think that it's exciting to see her in the two back for different reasons. Of course, we want to see her match up against Kate as often as possible, because they're just so exciting and dynamic to watch, especially when they're in the same pool. But I think that it comes back to what you're looking to get out of this meet. This has been a long year for people. We've already had a world championships in this calendar year in Doha, and then we've had the Olympics, and so I think that at the start of this Olympic quad, trying something new and different and fun and kind of seeing where you are in a format of swimming that you don't normally race is also an exciting aspect of this meet. I think this summer, she's kind of on my, it's kind of unbelievable to think that she's still a teenager, and we've been talking about her for so many years, and she's had quite the impressive year. Obviously, she did what she did at the Olympics, but she also took down Katie Ledecky head-to-head this year, which nobody's done in over a decade. So I really think that she is going to be probably the defining swimmer of the 2020s, just because of her talent is still pretty much unlimited at this point. She still has so many years of her prime left, and I think she's definitely gonna take down at least a world record or two at these world championships, and she's gonna get a big, fat payday, and I'm sure Canada will help her get some money as well. I do think she will be a huge star at this meet, as she has been for, as you said, years prior. I'm excited to see her branch out a little bit. I think as swim fans, we get greedy, and we want to see everyone swim everything. So Sophie, thanks for bringing me back down. It's not a travesty she's not swimming the 200 IM. We're gonna see her in four events, and I'm guessing she'll probably do really great in all of them. Especially exciting to see her in that 200 back where there's so much competition, including Regan Smith, Kylie Moss, aforementioned athletes, who, you know, it's not as much of a slam dunk for Miss McIntosh, I think, as we see in some of her other events. Switching things over to the men's side, again, I think this is a bit more of a depleted field, but we do have some big stars. Noe Ponte, who just broke the world record in the 50 fly at the World Cup, is coming in full force. I believe he's entered in 50 fly, 100 fly, 100 IM, 200 IM, where he is favored, I think he is favored to win all of those events. As well as Jordan Crooks, who is the defending short course world champ, in the 50 free, he's been on a tear in the NCAA. Those are two of my biggest athletes that I'm most excited to see, just because we've seen them do so well this season. Jordan has, it's his senior year at Tennessee, and it looks like this is gonna be his best year yet, and he's already very accomplished. He's swam historic times throughout his career, won an NCAA title, but he's swimming lights out. On the men's side, is there a certain race, is there a certain stroke, or a certain athlete that you guys are looking forward to see? Brendan, I'll throw this one to you. For me, I'd probably go with Zalan Sarkany. He's been on a tear for a couple years now, Hungarian distance star, a little Hoosier bias here, but I do think that he is gonna be back in his home country, and he's better, I think, short course than he is long course, and I think he's ready to go. He was pretty visibly untapered at the Ohio State Invitational a couple weeks ago, put up some really good swims for being pretty untapered, but I'm just gonna give him the home crowd bump, and I'm excited to see what he does in the distance. I'm really excited to see Ilya Karun swim. He's another person who's been absolutely tearing it up in the NCAA this season. It feels like every time he gets on the block, he puts down some insanely fast swim, and that started in September and just has not stopped, so I'm really excited to see what he can do kind of back in a short course meters format. You know, he's coming off two medals at the Olympics, and it seems like based on what he's been doing in yards this season, he could be doing, he could do something really special at this meet. Noe Ponte, Ilya Karun, 50 fly. You can even pick a ringer, too, if you have a wild card in there, but who do you think wins that race? I know I just said Ilya Karun is the person I'm most excited to see, but I guess I'll back the world record holder at this point. Noe Ponte is someone else that I'm really excited to see swim at this meet. He's also been so good this fall that I think he does it, but I do think it will take a world record to win. Ooh, okay, okay, that's a good kicker. Yeah, Brendan, what do you think? I like that take. I like the world record to win. It's really tough to pick against the world record holder, but Ilya Karun, probably one of the most talented swimmers in the world currently, from meddling at the two years ago's Short Course Worlds in the 50 fly to being also a very talented open water swimmer. I don't think anyone has had range like that maybe ever, so it's really tough to pick against Ilya, but I am gonna go with the world record holder, Noe Ponte. I think I'm giving it to Noe, but it's only because he's had more short course racing this fall, short course meters racing this fall. I think they're both in fine form, and I think they're both exceptional short course swimmers, but in the 50 fly, yeah, I gotta give it to Noe Ponte as well. I think in the 100 fly, Ilya's gonna get there, though. Noe put up, I wanna say 48.4 during the World Cup, I think. Yeah, I mean, a really great time historically. I think Ilya could, depending on what form he's in, he could approach a world record in that. Dressel's 47.7. I mean, he has just looked exceptional this season, and he just looked great at the NC State Invite. His coach, Herbie Boehm, is in Budapest. I know that, because I just looked at his Instagram story. And so, yeah, I think Ilya's gonna have a great meet. Let's break down a couple more races. I'm gonna go first with the men's 100 free. We've got Jordan Crooks, who, again, has had a great season so far in yards. Maxime Grousset, who is a medalist in a relay from the Paris Olympics, and has really had a great couple years. And then we have Guilherme Santos. Those are Swim Swim's top three picks. Santos, representing Brazil. He's Jordan Crooks' teammate at Tennessee. We've also got, because we're in America, two Americans, Chris Giuliano and Jack Alexey. We don't know what Chris Giuliano's been doing this fall. I assume he's been training and getting ready for short course worlds, I believe, at Notre Dame. And Jack Alexey, who's been training at Cal. Two strong American sprinters in that event. Who are you guys picking to win gold in the men's 100 free? Sophie? I made those picks, so I'll back them. Those sound 100% right. Yeah, I don't know. I think that this, you know, there are so many question marks at this meet, and particularly on the men's side. I think that's one of the things that makes this meet really exciting, is because this weird, like, kind of confluence of people who haven't done short course meters maybe ever, or, you know, swum it in two years. So it's kind of like the best times that they have are a little, like, well, I feel like they can go faster. And you've got, you know, NCAA swimmers who are taking the trip to swim in short course meters, and then you've got people who did the World Cup circuit. And so they're all kind of meeting in this weird way, and I think it's, like, a really exciting opportunity for people to kind of maybe get their name out there with a field that is missing so many of its biggest names. Like, the men's 100 free final is a tough final to get into, and I'm excited to see some new faces in this final. For me, Sophie, I like your picks. The podium, very respectable. But as you mentioned, this final is really, really difficult to get into, and it's such a crapshoot in the sprints. I think I'm just gonna take the X factor in this race, and I think nobody really knows what Chris Giuliano has been doing for the last couple of months. A lot of swirling stories out of Notre Dame, and now he's going to Texas. Has he been in South Bend? Has he been in Austin? Has he been elsewhere? But I do think that he, you know, he probably found out about the situation in Notre Dame pretty early, and he prepared for that properly, and I think he's really kind of zeroing in on this meet to set up his second semester NCAA season. So I want to take my guy, Chris Giuliano. I like the X factor pick. I would love to see Maxime Grousset get a gold medal in the international stage. I'm going with Jordan Crooks for the sprint sweep. I think he defends his title in the 50, and I think he gets it in the 100 as well, because he has been the top seed in this final before. But did not, I don't even think he ended up meddling in that 100 freestyle, but again, he's just looking so good this season. I like his chances, especially when we're talking short course, to get his hand on that wall first. So I'm going with Jordan Crooks, but like you said, it's going to be a great race. In Melbourne, he had his fastest swims in the semifinals for both the 50 and the 100 free, so I think, you know, if he turns that around and has his fastest swim in the final, it'll be really hard to get your hand on the wall in front of him. Yeah, we'll see how the travel from Knoxville to Budapest goes for him, but that's, I'm gonna back that horse for now. Let's go to some numbers games. Like I said earlier, Kate Douglas swimming five individual events, or at least slated to. Regan Smith, her BFF and American teammate, swimming four individual events, 50 back, 100 back, 200 back, and 100 fly, I believe. If I'm wrong on that, please correct me in the comments. I think those are her four events, though. Who do you think wins more individual gold medals at this meet, Regan Smith or Kate Douglas? I think it'll be Kate. I do think it'll be Kate. Regan could easily sweep the backstrokes, but she's got a tough test ahead of her in whichever fly event she's in. You know, at the 100 fly, we saw her do really well at Olympic trials, and it's exciting to see her get to race this event on the international stage. But I think that either way in the 100, or if she's in the 200, I also can't remember. You know, she'll either have summer Macintosh, or a relatively deep 100 fly field, Gretchen Walsh certainly, and Kate is also gonna have to race against Gretchen in a couple of events. But I do think that Kate's, I think, got her events on lock as well, so I'll pick Kate. Fair enough, Brendan? I'm gonna go with Regan. I think Kate is a good pick, but I feel like with Kate, she has a little more opposition in the sprints, and then a little bit in the breaststroke, maybe the IM. With Regan, I feel like a backstroke sweep is very, very safe, barring anything, any super standout performances from anyone else. Regan really feels like she's been on a tear, her World Cup performances in the backstrokes were really, really impressive with that world record. And then the butterfly, she'll have some tough competition, but I feel like she's a better short course butterflyer than long course, so I think I'm gonna go with Regan. Well, I gotta take the in-between. I'm saying they both win three gold medals. And on top of that, I'm gonna say Gretchen Walsh wins another three individual gold medals. I think nine gold medals individually between those three women, which I'm so excited to see all three of them swim short course meters, especially on this stage. So I'm gonna end with this. This is purely numbers. You don't even have to know a swimmer, but we can break it down a little bit. Who do you think wins the, or sorry, what number is the, whoever wins the most medals at this meet, what number do you think that is? And not gold medals, just total medals, so we're talking relays. Most likely it will be someone who's medaling and swimming on a lot of relays. But individually, relays combined, what number do you think is the most? I feel like typically at a short course Worlds we see someone win in the ballpark of seven or eight medals. Again, relays and individuals. But what do you think that number is? Should we set a line? Should we do, what, over under eight, eight and a half? I think, I like that. I think over under eight and a half is great because as we said, Kate Douglas I think could win 10. I'll go first on this one. Eight and a half, over under, I gotta go under. I think it's eight. That's just so many swims, that's so many things going right, and it could certainly happen for someone, but I'm thinking about those three women, Regan, Gretchen, or Kate. I think specifically Gretchen or Kate, just because they're certainly in line to be on a lot of free and medley relays, mixed and non-mixed. I think Gretchen could easily win three individual five relay medals. Same for Kate. I think it's feasible for Kate to win nine, that's just so many swims. And I don't feel totally comfortable going all in on that boat. So I think it's gonna be eight. What do you guys got? I'm hammering over, rent bet on the over. I think either Kate or Regan will be nine or 10 with the relays. Yeah, I feel like I'll go with the over here just because I think that would be fun. I think for me, this meet is about fun chaos and I think that it is a lot of swims in not a lot of time, but between those three women, I think one of them can do it. It does get a little crazy when you throw in the relays and we were talking earlier about, well, there's no single gender, but there's mixed of this and that, and that's gonna be a little tough to sort out, but I think one of them certainly will do it. Fair enough. I've been criticized on this show before for being toxically optimistic, and this time I'm the opposite. I'm the negative Nancy of the group, but I appreciate your optimism and I hope someone comes away from this meet with 10 medals. That would have to be a record. I think nine would have to be a record. I don't think anyone's ever won nine medals at a world championships. On the women's side, I think Katinka was eight or nine in 2016, and those were mostly individual too. Let's see. At those world championships, Hungry won 11 medals. You have to assume a lot of them were Katinka's. All right. Backstroke, she won three medals. No. Silver in the 200 free. 100, 200 fly, she won. That's seven. IMs, she, wait, hold, sorry. She swept the IMs. That's nine. Good Lord. Yeah, no relay medals. So nine individual medals, seven golds. Jesus. And two silver. Her World Cup numbers are even more crazy. I'm so sad we don't have Katinka anymore. She was such a gem. That is insane. So I'm confident saying 10 would be a record. And if I'm wrong, please let me know in the comments if you're listening to this and you're like, actually. But Katinka set the bar high. I guess we'll see if anyone can pass that. Sophie, Brendan, thank you so much for joining me for the Short Course Worlds preview. If you're listening out there, tune in to Swim Swam starting tomorrow on Tuesday, the December 10th, and our full coverage of Short Course Worlds will be live, and we will see you there. You've been listening to the Swim Swam Podcast. Stay tuned for new episodes every week. You can take Swim Swam Podcasts on the go by subscribing on your favorite podcast platform. Look for links in the description below and be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel for more videos as well.