Outlook for Growth in the 2025 Real Estate Market

Okay, now we're talking about the questions that we are tackling for 2025. What can we see already? What are the leading indicators in the data for next year's housing market already? How are we finishing up this year? One of the big questions is will inventory keep growing? Inventory's up 26% over last year. There's 26% more homes unsold on the market, but that's not true everywhere in the country. So what's gonna happen with inventory? And then looking at the risks as well as the growth potential for home sales and prices in 2025. So those are the data points we're going to be looking at today. And as always, when we're looking at the data, we try to communicate how to talk about the data, the housing market right now, with home buyers and sellers who are trying to navigate this market right now. Consumers have a lot of questions. A lot of people waited until after the election. People were assuming that mortgage rates would be falling. They haven't been. What do all these things mean for home buyers and sellers in your local market right now? So we're gonna try to keep that in mind as we're talking. All right, let's dive into the data. There are currently 690,000 single-family homes unsold on the market around the US. That's 26% more homes on the market than last year at this time. That's a pretty significant gain. What we're looking at here is like 10, nine, 10 years of inventory trends across the country. There's really, a lot of times, to a lot of the moment today, I'm gonna be talking about 2019, which is right in the middle of this chart. Five years ago, we were at the end of the last era of housing, the last decade. In the 2010s, inventory fell pretty much every year. Fewer and fewer homes were for sale as the cost of money was very low. People bought more real estate. We held more real estate. We hoarded more real estate. So each year, there's fewer and fewer homes for sale. That when money got super cheap during the pandemic, that accelerated. So the middle part of this chart here is the 2020, 21, and 22 when inventory was ultra low and falling. And then after 22, January or first quarter of 22, mortgage rates started rising again. And as rates rise, more homes build on the market. So in the last three years, we have really grown inventory from January 22 all the way to now. So there's 26% more homes on the market than were available last year. There's still about 16% fewer homes for sale than in 2019. So 16% fewer earlier. There used to be 50, 70% fewer homes, but we're getting closer to normal. And normal in the last decade, there might have been a million homes, single-family homes unsold on the market in the middle of the summer. This year, there was 700,000, so 30% fewer. But next year, we get a little bit closer. Inventory's building unevenly across the country this year. It'll even out a little bit next year. So, and I'll show you a little bit of that. So we can see that inventory is still climbing, and we can assume that inventory will keep climbing because we have the higher cost of money. So interest rates, mortgage rates will continue to be elevated, especially over the last few years. Maybe they ease back down a little bit into the low sixes for some of 2025. But there's no signal in the data that mortgage rates are gonna fall to 5% or lower. If that were to happen, then these assumptions about growing inventory will reverse. Rates would be falling. Inventory people will be buying more homes than will be selling them. Inventory will fall again. But it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Now, I say that, I'm very careful, I don't predict mortgage rates. I've been wrong on mortgage rates for 30 years. But what we can do is we can see what is likely to happen to mortgage rates in 2025. And frankly, we see that because the inflation numbers are still coming in a little warm. And some of the jobs numbers are not decelerating. Unemployment is okay, it's pretty good and not getting worse. Those signals for a stronger economy tend to keep rates higher for longer than they have for the last three years pushed mortgage rates higher and all interest rates higher. And so those seem likely to continue in 2025. As a result, we're expecting inventory to continue to grow a little closer to normal next year. Now, what's interesting is there's the demand side of that equation, people buying fewer homes because it's more expensive. But there's also the seller side of that. And we track the seller side with new listings each week. What I have here is new listings over the last nine or 10 years also. And those same three areas that I just mentioned. Right now, there are 57,000 new listings each week. We're at the far right end of this chart here in the blue. And in the post pandemic era, since middle of 22, we've had about 70,000 sellers each week, single family homes. Before the pandemic and like in the 17, 18, 19, that might be 90,000 a week. Many more sellers than we have now. And that's been true for the last couple of years. We've dramatically restricted the number of sellers. Why is that? Well, we've called it the great stay. We are, as Americans, we've got a really great deal on our house, we're not selling it. We also have a good deal on our job. We're not changing jobs, we're not quitting jobs. So American, the quit rates are very low. So we're not quitting jobs, we're not hiring, we're not moving across the country. All of those things have been really restricted for the last almost three years now. And that shows up in how few sellers we have. The taller the bar here is the more sellers in a given week. And so you can see in 2017, 18, 19, it might be 90,000 or 100,000 sellers in a given week. This year, at the right end of the chart, it's maybe 70,000 sellers in a given week. So what we expect is slightly more, we had slight seller growth, 24 more than 23, maybe five to 10% more. So we expect to get five to 10% more growth in sellers next year. So that'll give us a little boost, slightly more sellers, slightly more people moving across the country, slightly more people moving to the Sunbelt, but there's no signal anywhere in the new listings data each week, there's no signal anywhere of a big surge in sellers. So even in markets like some of the Western Florida markets, there are more sellers than there were, they're back to normal, but there's not a lot, there's not like crisis numbers. So if there were a lot of sellers, then you get demand is still pretty low because money's expensive, and you get a lot of sellers, you get a supply and demand imbalance, that could lead to price correction. But there's no signal anywhere in the data, anywhere, of a lot of sellers. So we're hoping for a little bit more sellers because a little bit more means a slightly healthier housing market, it means it makes it easier for first time home buyers, it means better selection for buyers, it means less upward pressure on home prices with each increment of new sellers, new listings. If we look at inventory across the country, it's really fascinating. I've called this a bifurcated market, so the redder the state, the more inventory versus last year. So as of right now, Arizona has 46% more homes on the market than a year ago, Florida has 35%. If you look at those Southern states earlier in the year, that was like 60% more. So the growth is shrinking, it's getting tighter. So that means that inventory growth for 25 will be, you'd drop into the 20s or 15 across many of these states. Now compare that to the Midwest and the Northeast in the upper right part of the state, look how these are, there's only 4% more homes for sale in New York than a year ago. 7% more in Illinois. So inventory is much tighter in the Midwest and Northeast, and much more prevalent in the Sun Belt. Why is that? So I mentioned the Great Stay, and the Great Stay is like we are staying in our homes, we're staying in our jobs, we are not moving across town, we're not moving to the Sun Belt. So for many years, we've been moving from the Northeast to the South. We've been moving from Chicago to Dallas or Chicago to Denver or Chicago to Arizona. We've been moving from New York to Florida, all of those motions, and in the last year in particular, that motion has stopped, that migration has stopped dramatically, slowed way down. And in some cases, like Western Florida and Austin, Texas, it's actually been moving out, it's had outbound migration. And so we used to sell houses in Chicago and buy in Dallas. We're not selling in Chicago and we're not buying in Dallas. So Dallas inventory is up to a decade-long high. Chicago inventory is 60% fewer than just five years ago. 60% fewer homes on the market in Chicago. And so you can really see this bifurcated market that is a result of the Great Stay. Now we're looking at 25, and I see that evening out a little bit. We have a few more sellers in the North, a few more buyers in the South. We get a slightly healthier move as people have put off moving for a couple of years. We've seen, hopefully we get a little bit of improvement on mortgage rates and the cost of moving. We get hopefully a little more dynamism in the jobs market. So quits are higher and hiring is higher, even if the unemployment rate stays fairly low. So that's what we're looking for, a little more even in the next year. And so let's look at that new listing rate. And so this is comparing Chicago to Dallas over these last nine or 10 years. You can look at the left side of the chart here. And in the left side of the chart, the Chicago and Dallas lines in previous years, each week might have 2,500 or 2,700 homes for sale. Chicago and Dallas are roughly the same size markets. You have roughly the same number of sellers each week. Then during the pandemic, we were buying everything in sight. We were hoarding real estate. We're not selling very many, so we had very few new listings and a lot of purchases. Inventory fell through the floor. And then after, so I got the little blue line there, after the first quarter of 22, you can see what's happening is the seller volume in Dallas is returning to normal. That's not surging. It's not like there's not like a panic sell in Dallas, but it's returning to normal. So the peak of the summer, there was like 2,400 homes for sale per week, new listings per week in Dallas, compared to like, that's like it was in 2019. Like it was pretty normal levels of sellers. But look at Chicago. Chicago is still at those pandemic lows, very few sellers, just slightly more than last year. So we get, this is the reason that we've seen that this year so that bifurcated market across the country. We haven't been selling in Chicago to buy in Dallas, but we're still building in Dallas. So you get more new listings in Dallas, you get fewer in Chicago. And that's happening across the country, north to south. And now as we mentioned, Dallas has returned to a normal level of sellers. And if trends continue, we get a few more sellers in Chicago next year. That means a few more buyers in Dallas, a few more of those cross country moves, and that will help this even out. And I think that you can really see the two big takeaways here. One is you can see why the Midwest and Northeast, the Rust Belt has been, has super tight inventory, there's no sellers. And you can also see that while Dallas has the most homes for sale in active inventory in like a decade, it's not because there's a ton of new sellers each week. There's not people panicking, there's not investors really unloading. It's not, there's not too many, it's just building, and it's basically waiting for that migration to pick up again. So I thought that was a really fascinating view of what's going on. And if we look now, comparing the states, not to last year, but to 2019, back to normal, we can see there are now 10 states that have more homes for sale than in 2019. Now, a year ago, it was, there was only a couple states, but two years ago, everything was way, way, way fewer homes for sale than in 2019. So you can see that Texas has almost 25% more homes for sale than 2019. In Chicago, it's 60% fewer. Connecticut has 73% fewer homes for sale now than in 2019. 73% fewer, like it's dramatically fewer. Now what happens next year? So the light-colored states are the ones with more inventory now than in 2019. And so next year, you can see on the West Coast, Washington, Oregon, probably California, maybe even Nevada, will have more homes for sale next year than in 2019, so that'll start picking up. Across the South, you can imagine Georgia, South and North Carolina, get their inventory up back above 2019 levels, so at or above. So that will be normal markets that would be normalizing in the next year. That means that these, really, these states in the Northeast that have a ton fewer homes for sale also get closer to the old normal, and so that it's less imbalanced across the country. That's what we're looking at for the next year. So, and I view this inventory growth as healthy for the country. Inventory's been so restricted for so long that drives home prices up. That means the options for first-time home buyers have been very restricted, a lot of competition. All of those factors start to ease when we have more homes on the market. And so, that's what we're looking at for next year. Now, if we look at the projected inventory, so there are, right now there's, as I mentioned, there's 690,000 single-family homes. There are 26% more homes in 24 versus the 23 line. We expect inventory to be up all year next year. Late in the year, it'll compress a little bit, but we expect another 12, 13, 14, 15% inventory growth, getting closer to that 2019 level, getting closer to the old normal. So, we were in the pandemic boom, where we're buying everything in sight, for two years. We've been out of it for almost three years now. And so, another year, a fourth year of higher mortgage rates will help get us back to a much more healthy market. And as long as rates stay roughly where we expect them, and housing-wise, we are expecting rates to be maybe touch below 6% to maybe 5 3⁄4 at some point in the year, and maybe jump above seven at some point in the year. So, that range of like 7 1⁄4 to 5 3⁄4, mostly in the sixes. If we're lucky, mostly in the low sixes during the year, that will help more transactions happen. But no signal anywhere of mortgage rates falling to five, or dropping back down to anywhere near like it used to be. And on the other hand, there are risks of a hot economy or inflation that drive mortgage rates up next year. And if mortgage rates jump higher dramatically, let's say they jump to 7 1⁄2 or closer to eight like they were a year ago, then this inventory number is gonna climb more quickly, and we'll adjust this forecast higher during the year if that happens. All right, let's switch to sales. So, there are 51,000 new sales happening each week now. This is the end of the year, so this comes down. It includes, for example, the Thanksgiving holiday. So, we are at, the important thing here is we got three lines, each line is a year. The peak sales typically happen in April, May, June, and then they decline for the second half of the year. Home sales are now running about five to 10% above last year. And we've been talking about this for a few months. If you follow along on these webinars, you've been seeing this data for a few months. You'll also note that now, many of the other headline numbers, for example, that NAR's pending home sales is showing up six, I think it was 6.6% for October year-over-year. The MBA's mortgage purchase applications are up year-over-year. So, the other data is starting to corroborate what we've been measuring here, which is there are more homes going into contract each week than last year at this time. That took a lot longer this year to grow because mortgage rates stayed higher for longer than anybody expected, certainly than I expected. And so, those sales were restricted. Now, if rates were to jump, this momentum can evaporate very quickly. On the other hand, if rates stay stable in the sixes, we expect next year to have five to 10% more home sales each week and to grow the number of sales during the year. So, you can see the dark line is a little bit ahead of last year. It's not like 22, the first half of 22, we were still cramming in every end of the pandemic deal we could. Buyers were still trying to get in at rates even though they were at four and a half or 5%, they were still trying to get their deal done. So, there were a lot more sales happening each week then. We're not gonna get back there, but we do see some growth for 22, no, 25. And here's what we look at. This is a view from our housing wire forecast paper that we published a couple of weeks ago. What we're looking at here is the percentage change of home sales, not prices, but home sales in a given year. Most years, home sales climb a little bit, 5%. The biggest climb years are about eight or 9%, maybe 10% years. But the biggest down years, home sales can crash by 20 or 25% in a year. So, it's much easier for consumers to stop buying than it is to build the momentum to buy it again. So, what we're looking at here is at the right end of the chart, the blue lines are the forecast for the end of this year as well as the rest of 25, six and seven. So, we are expecting about 4.2 million home sales, existing home sales in 2025. That's up about 5% over 24. You will see different forecasters talk about different numbers. If you see forecasts of like 4.9 million or 5 million, 5 million is sort of a normal pace, but it's really hard for home sales to go from 4 million to 5 million in a year, like to grow by 25% would be a massive boom. And we just don't see that that inertia change is possible. So, what we're looking at is 5% home sales gains, more sales in 25, a little bit of growth, and then a nice even growth continuing out in 26 and 27, a little bit more each year. All right, let's switch to prices. So, the median price of single family homes in the US right now is $425,000. Now, if I walk out to buy a home in the US like that stuff, that's what the selections are. It is fractionally above last year at this time. The market looks basically the same for three years in a row. At the beginning of 22, home prices were still vertical. So, right in the middle of the chart, you can see how steeply these lines are climbing. And that's because in 22, there was still gobbling up everything that was in sight. We were trying to get deals done. There was multiple offers. Each week, you list your house a little more aggressively because the buyers were there. Then in June of 22, that stopped abruptly, and the lines ticked back down very quickly. The bright red line here is the median price of the new listing. So, each week, those newly listed houses, where do they get priced? And what happens there is it's a really great signal. The term is called the wisdom of the crowds. But the crowds know exactly where to price a house. The crowds in this case are the listing agents and the sellers. And as a listing agent, you're looking and you see, I know how many offers were on the one down the street. I know that that open house was priced a little too high and didn't have anybody going to look at it. So, I'm gonna price this one at a little discount. So, the bright red line takes that information very quickly and adjusts. And what you can see is that he has, each year, January 1 is the low point. There's a Thanksgiving dip and then a New Year's dip. And then prices start climbing for the spring with the best listings. The most demand happens in the spring, which peaks in the summer and then dips back down. So, the price of the new listings and the median price of all the homes in the U.S. right now, the signal is a little continued price appreciation for 2025. So, in the zero to 5% range. There isn't anything in the signal, in the data that would show prices falling in 2025 nationally. Because if that were the case, we would see it in the price of the new listings right now, each week we'd be getting discounts because there weren't offers happening. And so, you would see that line, the bright red line, falling faster than it is. I like to watch this bright red line after the new year. So, between the second and third and fourth week of January, we can see how quickly, how optimistic the sellers are with demand right after the new year. So, we're gonna watch the steepness of this line. And if you look at the steepness of this line in 21, the bright red line in 21, and in 22, sellers were really, like, that's when prices were moving. But then, in 23, suddenly it was a lot less steep, those new prices after the new year, because sellers were, there was significantly less demand and everybody knew it. So, you can really see where the demand is. It gets put into the pricing in the market in this price of new listings chart. Let's look at the sales prices. So, what we're looking at here is the median price of all the homes going into contract in a given week. So, this is the price point people are buying. So, if you look at, there is, all the homes on the market is 425. People are buying at 385. So, 384, 900 is the median price of all the single family homes that are going into contract in a given week. And if you look at the 2024 line, you can see how prices have held steady since September, and it's actually surprised me how strong home prices have held up. Home prices are up about 5% year over year, the sales prices, nationally. Some states are higher, some markets are lower. A couple of markets are actually down year over year. No markets are down a lot, and I'll show you some local variations in home prices in just a second. But what this shows us is that we had a, we had 2024 finishing strong. 5% home price gains are sort of normal over the years, over many years, many decades even, because the US economy grows steadily, our population grows, and because we tend to underbuild homes, home prices tend to climb about 5% per year. So on boom years, it might be 10% or more, or tight markets might be 10% or more, and very rarely do home prices nationally fall, go negative year over year. We are looking at housing wire at about, we're expecting about 3.5% home price gains over next, over, to finish 25, and I'll show you why that is in just a second. At the state level, now you can see the same chart that we looked at before, this is looking at prices versus last year. So pretty much everywhere, home prices are up a little bit. If in a given state, if it's 2%, 2.5%, it's essentially flat from last year. But if you look at the bluer the state, the more home prices have climbed year over year. And it's the same states where inventory is very restricted, that Midwest and Northeast. There are 60% fewer homes for sale in Illinois than in 2019, and as a result, home prices are up. There's not a lot of selection, and so there are more people who need to buy those available homes, and that's driven home prices up. In the Sunbelt, in the South, places like Florida and Texas and Louisiana and all the way to Arizona, you can see much flatter home price growth. Not down, but some of those markets actually do have down home prices year over year. So you can really see the dynamic of where home prices are up and why nationally, home prices are up about 5% year over year. Here's what we look at the forecast. This is from the Housing Wire Forecast research paper, which you can get, Housing Wire members can go get. If you're a Housing Wire subscriber, you can go download this paper, and it talks about home sales. It talks about home prices. It talks about all the scenarios that a lot of your buyers and sellers have scenarios that they imagine are happening, like I think home prices are gonna crash, so I'm gonna wait on the sidelines, and in this paper, we investigate those scenarios. We look at how likely or how unlikely they are, and we talk about what they might imply for buyers. So if you're a Housing Wire subscriber, you can go get that forecast paper. In this chart, on the left side of the chart, this is a change in the Altos pending price from the year prior. So back in 22, home prices were up by 12, 15% nationally. They dropped very quickly so that in the first quarter, on second quarter of 23, home prices were down from a year earlier, but in the last year and a half, home prices have been in this five, 6% range increase over last year. So where that line ends, that's where we are right now. 6% home price gains over last year will probably end in that 5% range. Now, what we did was Housing Wire forecasts about 3.5% home price gains over to end 2025. We think it'll be less gains than this year because inventory is still climbing, so there's more selection. And in some states, there's a lot of selection. And because there's no signal that there is any real improvement, like dramatic improvement in mortgage rates, so it'll still be expensive. We still have an affordability crisis, which is not abating. So that's why we look at, though it seems unlikely that we'll have a strong home price year because we have more selection and we don't have affordability improvements. We participate, I participate in a survey with Pulsnomics is a firm, and they survey over 100 real estate economists and forecasters and get their view of what's gonna happen to home prices next year. In the Pulsnomics survey, 100 different people, you can see that the average is a little bit tighter than what we expect at Housing Wire. Some folks at Pulsnomics are expecting a big year next year, 8% home price gains nationally. And that would be a function of a strong economy, probably assuming that mortgage rates fall. There are some scenarios which could drive home price gains from five, 6% this year to 8%. I don't think they're gonna happen, but that's a scenario. On the other hand, that low forecast, these are folks who have the affordability is paramount hypothesis, meaning we have an affordability crisis in this country. And in order for affordability to get back in line, home prices have to correct down. That's the assumption for that low forecast, which means that those are like five, 5.5%, the very lowest people out of those 100. There's a couple of people who think that that might be a scenario for next year. I don't think it's likely that we're gonna get that big a correction down. I don't see the dynamics for that. But that's the range that people are forecasting. We think slightly less than normal home price gains for 25 because we have more inventory and we don't see affordability improving dramatically. Okay, now let's look at leading indicators and then we're gonna switch to the local markets. I have a leading indicator here that I don't share too much, but one of the things we can track at Altos is that the pending sale price as a percentage of the asking price in hotter markets, that percentage is higher, meaning there's tighter inventory, there's bidding wars. We know that the sale price gets close to, in some markets, is over 100% of the ask price. Bidding wars lead to over 100%. Nationally, that's very rare. But we've got three years here and you can see in 22, it was like the sale price was like 97, 98% of the ask price. Then in 22, the pink line dropped very dramatically and you could see that the sale price was dropping compared to the asking price. Very quickly, we could see that that was leading future sales prices. So we could see the demand falling off a cliff in 22. 23, it stabilized. And now here at the end of 24, the sale to list price has been rising recently. And so that's a slightly bullish number for home price appreciation in the future. It's not roaring, it's not like 98%, but it's better than it was last year at this time. So that's an interesting bullish indicator for home prices. It's been rising for most of the year. It's a little bit more, it's a little flatter than we've seen, but we're also looking for like, if that scenario, there's those forecasters who are expecting home prices to drop by 6% next year, I would see it in data like the sale to list price ratio. I think we'd see it already and we don't see it. And I think that's a useful leading indicator for future transaction prices. That's the sale price compared to the list price. And it looks kind of strong. We can also use the percentage of homes on the market with price reductions. So from the original list price. So right now, 38.4% of the homes on the market have had price cuts nationally. That is down from about 40% earlier in the summer. That peaked, at the summer it peaked with mortgage rates and then they dipped a little bit down towards in September and October and price reductions kicked down. Last year, the last two years at this time, price reductions were at their peak right now because mortgage rates were spiking until basically early December before they started falling. As we get over the holidays, you'll get withdrawn listings if they've been on the market for a long time and haven't sold and aren't getting offers. They might do a price cut, but they also might withdraw over the holidays. And then after in January, you get fresh new inventory. So the percentage of homes with price cuts falls all the way to March before we start cutting prices again for the summer. So we're a little bit elevated, but right now it's coming in roughly at the same as 23 did. And we're gonna finish the year at about 35%, which is a little more elevated than normal, but there isn't any signal of dramatic weakness in home prices in the price reductions data. It means that sellers and buyers are roughly seeing eye to eye. It shows it's elevated, so it shows demand is weaker than it has been. And of course, you can see that in Texas and Florida. You can see that in a lot of markets, but it's not dramatic. And it was much more dramatic in November, December of 22. And at that time, when price reductions were in the 40s, that meant that in three, four, five months after that, home prices were negative year over year in the spring of 23 before they recovered again. So we're gonna come back in, we're gonna watch, whoops, we're gonna watch this line after the new year and see if it falls down to the 30s range or if it stays higher if demand is weak. For example, if mortgage rates spike now with inflation numbers, then maybe we come in and suddenly there's less demand after the new year and we see price reductions. So we'll see it in this price reductions number very quickly. Okay, let's look at the price reductions number. I like to look at the local markets. And then we will, let's go here. And I'll share my local data and we'll dive in. So this is now looking at the Altos system. We're looking at advanced analytics. So for Altos subscribers, you can upgrade and get the advanced analytics and build charts like this on your data for yourself. I have over here on the right side the price reductions data. This is a rank of all the biggest markets in the country. If you remember earlier in the year, the Florida markets dominated this. And I think it's interesting that we have now see Indianapolis, Denver, Columbus back at the top. Austin, Denver, Dallas, and Arizona do not surprise me being at the top, but some of the Midwest markets, so even though inventory has been tight there, these have relatively elevated levels of price reductions. So it means that there's not a lot of sellers, there's also not a lot of demand. Many of these markets typically have more price reductions than say California markets, which tend to be in the low 20s more commonly. But you can see what's shifting in the U.S., and it's shifting, meaning inventory's building in the West, and as a result, the homes are sitting on the market a little bit longer, they're doing more price cuts. So that's really shifted. Earlier in the year, these were all the top markets were Florida markets with price cuts. Florida's also got a slightly different seasonal cycle. So there's new inventory and buyers in this time, the winter in Florida, where in the high summer in Florida, there are fewer buyers. So there's a little bit of seasonality going on in there. So that's an interesting view. Let's dive into some of the local markets. I have Portland up. I mentioned early that Oregon next year will probably have more inventory unsold than in 2019. It'll join the states that have more inventory. And we can see where we are in Portland. I've got the inventory chart here, our five years of inventory. So as we were coming in at the end of 2019, 6,000 homes basically on the market, and now we're at 5,000. So you can see we're slightly, we're up from last year, we're up definitely from the pandemic. So inventory's building, and so next year, you can imagine that we're gonna be at the 6,000 mark and back to more normal. We can also see the price points where demand is happening in Portland. And it's really anything under 800 grand, but you can see under 500 definitely moves quicker. So 56 days instead of like 120 days on the market in Portland. And if we look at the price chart over time, so we can see, you know, Portland was one of those boom markets pre-pandemic and during the pandemic that had dramatic increases in home prices. But as of right now, we have just barely up year over year. And the peak this summer was flat at just under $700,000. So this'll dip for the rest of the spring. And so there isn't a lot of upward pressure on home prices in Portland because, you know, the inventory is starting to build. All right, let's look at LA. LA is a much more cyclical market. LA is a strong market on the upside and it can cool very quickly. I'm using the long-term price reductions view here in LA. And so what we can see in 22 as the pandemic boom ended, mortgage rates spiked, price reductions went from only 10% of the homes in LA with price cuts to 40% in one year. That was a big change. And now we're in this middle range here. There's 30% of homes on the market with price cuts in LA. That's a little more than the pre-pandemic normal. So it's a little softer than normal there. And we can look at the inventory levels in LA as well. So inventory in LA is up over last year. And I expect that inventory is gonna get back to normal levels, the 2019 levels, 11,000 versus 10,000. So it may be a 10% growth in inventory, unsold inventory in LA next year to get us back to a more normal level than we've had. So that's one of the reasons I expect California as a whole will be back to 2019 levels by the end of next year. We can look at, we can see exactly where the demand is in LA, you know, of course LA has a lot of the very expensive homes and they take a lot longer to sell. Anything under two million though is moving pretty quickly and anything a million or lower is basically, you know, moving in a month or a month and a half. So you can really see where the demand is in LA. And we can look at prices real quick. So if we look at home prices, basically unchanged year over year, 1.5 and 1.5. So basically flat year over year, but up dramatically from the pre-pandemic era. So we don't see, you know, like we see again, not a lot of signal of pushing prices down dramatically, but not a lot of up signal. So that's why we're looking nationally at things like about three and a half percent home price gains. In Denver, Denver is one of those inbound migration markets where migration has slowed dramatically. We used to move from Chicago to Dallas, in fact, to Denver. In fact, I had dinner with some friends who did that move in 2017 and that move has stopped and they still own a house in Chicago and they're thinking about selling a house in Chicago because inventory is really tight in Chicago right now. And they've owned that house for a long time. But in Denver, we can see as we've stopped, as inventory has started building, Denver inventory is probably around the low for the year, but slightly lower than last year at this time. Slightly above where it was, you know, at the beginning of the pandemic. I've zoomed into the last three years here to see basically home prices flat for three years in Denver. We can look at inventory in Denver and see that inventory, and let me zoom back out again. Inventory in Denver is now above where it was in 2019. This is much more like the Dallas or the Phoenix charts because, like I said, we're building homes there. We have inbound migration. That migration slows way down. Inventory builds in Denver and stays higher in the Northeast. We look at the price ranges, much more even market. Demand has slowed even at the lower ranges in Denver. So Denver's a really interesting one to keep our eye on in 2025. I have, let's move, I've got San Antonio. I mentioned Connecticut early in the session today. Connecticut has 70% fewer homes on the market than it did in 2019. So this is that long-term chart of homes for sale in Connecticut. So, you know, 10 or 11,000 homes down to 3,000 homes right now. Connecticut has just barely more homes for sale than last year, and we'll hopefully see that increase. You can therefore see that home prices climbing year over year, and we can see down here anything under a million bucks in Connecticut is moving very quickly. So, and the cheapest stuff very quickly in Connecticut. The other one I want to mention is Miami. Miami, if we look at our market action index, has built, this is supply versus demand. The higher this speedometer goes, the tighter the supply is for the current level of demand. So Miami's barely down, basically a balanced market, getting close to buyer's opportunity conditions, and you can see what's happening to prices in Miami. So home prices are down year over year. We're probably at the low point of the year for prices. You can see the seasonal dip starts climbing in the winter months for Miami, but home prices finishing the year lower in Miami than last year. And if we look at the price decreases, you can see we're at higher levels of price cuts than normal, slightly higher, normally 30, and we're at 36, so weaker demand. We can see that in prices. We can see it in the market action index. We can also see that all of the price points in Miami are slowing down, with maybe a little bit of opportunity under 500,000. So Miami and some of those Florida markets are the ones that have negative price pressure year over year for 25. Looks flat and could be down, but there are few enough of those around the country that we don't see that home prices for that nation will be down year over year. Okay, I don't have time to do all of the markets in the country right now, of course, but we track everyone. And so if I didn't get to yours, you can go to the Altos Research website. You can go put your zip code in, set up your free Altos account, get your free report. You can book a demo with our team to dive into how to talk about the market with your clients, with your buyers and sellers. You can dive into the local data, but you can use that free account to get started. If you want to review what I've talked about today, we have a free e-book at Altos, and you can go to altosresearch.com, you can get the free e-book that talks about how to talk about the data. All the data points I talk about today are in that e-book. There's scripts, there's expectations, there's questions that people have. So if you don't already have that e-book, go get it, and you can dive in to the data today. All right, everybody, that's all the time we have for today. I appreciate your time. The webinar is recorded, and you will get the email. Everybody who's on the call will get the email later today. And I look forward to seeing you after the new year. All right, everybody. I'll stick around in the chat for a few minutes. We'll make sure all the questions are answered.