Will 2025 Be the Year of the Housing Market Collapse? My Forecast

Well, it's that time of year again when I give my forecast for the year. So today I'm gonna provide you guys with my 2025 housing forecast. So to break this down, here's what we gotta understand. We have to understand supply demand. Supply demand works for everything. It doesn't matter if it's apples, cars, or even houses that we're talking about in today's world. So a lot of people that have been predicting the housing crash, I still can kind of question them and to say, why are you saying the crash? If you look at the fundamentals, basically, well, maybe if you look at their point of view, house prices went up so fast, so high, so fast, otherwise you'd think, well, the market has to crash for everything just to get back to normal. Well, that's not the case, and that's not how economics works. So that's what we're gonna talk about in today's video. First thing we're gonna talk about is inventory. Where is the inventory? Because a lot of people just give you this information or that information, but the whole gist of what I'm trying to explain to everybody today, and you'll get a point of this at the end of this video, is I want you to understand what your market's doing. Austin might be coming down, San Francisco's prices might be coming down, which they're not, I'm gonna show you here in a second, but what is your market area doing? Because so many people just walk around their neighborhoods telling you how bad it is, but what is your market doing? So that's what we're gonna talk about in today's video. So the first thing we wanna look at is housing supply. Okay, here's the inventory levels. So I gotta move my head around the screen a little bit so you guys can understand this. Let me just get rid of myself here for one second. Let's get away. Okay, so I'm gone. So here's the inventory. Here's one piece of the puzzle that people provide you, and they're like, here's where inventory's looking like. Well, if I looked at this chart, I'd be like, it doesn't look too good. Inventory's building up quite a bit. It's almost, you know, it's way up there. But what they're not showing you is, well, this is a one-year data plan. Let's get out to a five-year data. What does that look like? Oh, that gives us a little bit of a different tune. So right now, our inventory levels are back where we were 2020. Well, even in July of 2020, there was COVID, and there was still FOMO happening at that time. So since that time, housing inventory just plummeted, okay, all the way down to one of the worst ever in history, and I'll show you that in a second by, if you expand this out just one more tick, go one more tick, and here's where we are. Since 20, I think, 16, here's what the market looks like. So a lot of people use data from 2018, 2019, because that's pre-pandemic, pre the world kind of going crazy, okay? So here's where we are. So at that time, we had 1.3 million homes on the market, okay, and 2019 and 2020, that depleted all the way down to probably one of the worst inventory situations we've been in decades and decades and decades. Okay, so now where we are, we're right through here. So this is telling us we have inventory that's the same going back to right about right here. That's when FOMO was happening. We're not even up to these levels pre-pandemic just yet. So is inventory out of hand? The answer on that would be no. Okay, so now the next piece of the puzzle, people are saying, well, there's foreclosures are gonna run rampant, because people are gonna lose their jobs, and the whole economy is gonna go bad. We're gonna go into recession, and everybody's gonna lose their homes. Well, here's more delinquency. It is on a percentage basis, it's 1.18%. Right through here, it's currently 1.2. So you're gonna say, okay, back then it was 1.18, now we're at 1.2, that ain't good. No, again, you have to make sure you're looking at data that's relevant. Let's go back to a five-year, holy shnikes. Okay, so let's go to a 10-year. So how do we look in today's world when it comes to the mortgage balances or people in default on their mortgages? Well, over history, the best times ever in history. There's hardly any foreclosures. It's less than 2%. So that's not gonna do it. So basically, we have housing inventory is kinda down, and it's not gonna be picking up anytime soon from foreclosures. Okay, so that's that piece of the puzzle. Now, let's add some more data in here. The next thing is we wanna go to home prices. The home prices since 1953 to 2004. So what you're probably gonna see is a gradual up move, and then in 2024, 25, it's gonna plummet because home prices are supposed to crash, right? Because they went too high. I'm just gonna show you the full index on this one. This one goes back to 1995. Here's where we were. So basically, the context is saying, okay, in 1995, if the median home price was 106 grand, when it went over to here and doubled, well, that's doubled. So it now can't go any higher because you can't have home prices double, and the economy keep going. Well, the home prices kept going up and up and up. And then through here in 2022, people were saying, okay, that's when the housing market peaked. From there on, it's gonna be a crash. Well, it tipped a little bit, and then it was up, up, up, and away from there. Now, what you have to focus in on is this is the median home price of all the houses in the entire country. Okay, what is your market doing? That's what we wanna focus in on. So you also have to understand the difference between median home prices, 436. Now we're all the way down to here, 420. Okay, so that doesn't look good. You can see that, let's keep going with my same kind of pattern here. Here's where we were the last five years. So here's where prices were, and here's where we are today. Let's go out to a 10-year chart and see how this is. So again, you had this massive run-up in home prices, and you had somewhat of a dip, and it's down a little bit, but nowhere near what people were expecting. And again, this is median house prices for the United States. It's not for your area alone. So there's a median, and there's the average. We won't go through it, because it both has the same charts. Now, let's start getting over to what home prices did over the past year. So now we know the inventory. It's up there, but it's not going crazy at this time. Okay, so that's one big piece of the market. So now let's get over to see what last year did. So we have San Jose, California. It's up 7.5%. New York, Providence, Hartford, Cleveland, they're all up over 5%, and down through here. The worst market that we have right now is Austin, Texas, right down through here. And that was the poster child. Remember, everybody kept saying Austin, Texas. That's where they all started. It's gonna be a bloodbath. It's gonna be 50, 60, 80% off the home prices. Well, how did Austin do last year? Well, let's get over to it. Austin, down 4% over the year. I don't like it, but a far cry from a crash. Remember, they were saying 20, 30. The consensus I got out of most of these videos was 30% crash, or 30% reduction equals a crash. That's a far cry from a crash. That's Austin. That is, if you remember, that is the worst housing market according to Zillow. You go right through here, right through here. Austin, Texas, and I brought it up. The worst housing market in the entire country, down 4%. So let's get over to some of those other areas. Watch that YouTuber that walks around the neighborhood down in Miami saying how bad it is. Well, how bad did Miami get? Up 5.5% over the year. 5.5%, okay? Let's get to California. People are saying California is gonna fall off a cliff as well. San Jose, or San Francisco, California, up 0.5. Let's get to Tampa, Florida. Another area in Florida where they're saying it's gonna be bad, folks. Well, they're black. Phoenix, that's gonna be a horrible market as well. What it doing? Black. Okay, so housing market, is it crashing? Is it crashing in your neighborhood? Let's find out. What I want you to do is let's scrap all the national data. Let's scrap all the YouTube stuff. Let's just focus in on what your neighborhood's doing. What is your area doing? So go to altosresearch.com. Mike's a buddy of ours. I don't make any money on this. If you wanna use their services, I give it a double thumbs up, okay? Go to altos.re, that's the website. Go over here, put in your zip code where you're looking to buy, and click it. They're gonna send you a report that looks like this. Now guys, I don't get anything on this. And I just like Mike, and I like his data. Here's what it's gonna tell you. You can plug in, and once you get there, you can plug in all kind of information. It's gonna give you this information. Median listing price, per square footage, price decreases, price increases, relisting, inventory, and all the others. Gonna give you a price history over the last couple of years. Look, in Chicago, we were 105 back in 2020. Where are we right now? We're at 240, so, is that right? Hundred and, 144,000, say, and then we're at a hundred and 240. It's a nice market here, but that's a long period of time. It'll also give you the median price ranges through here. How many bed, bath averages, how many now, how many are absorbed, and so forth. And then it gives you all the days on the market. Look at the days on the market. In this price range right through here, 259, 105 days on the market. Okay, so that's not a good market when it comes to looking at these numbers, but when you look at it, the prices are pretty stable. So that's what I, so, basically, here's the conclusion of my forecast for 2025. Your housing market is your housing market. It's not, maybe not Miami, it's not Austin, it's not Chicago, where I live. What is your market doing, and what is it truly going to do, okay? So do your research, folks. Don't watch me to figure out, should you buy a house for any other YouTuber? Check the data, okay? So, hopefully, this has debunked the crashing situation. Just think of it this way. In 2023, we were out of the pandemic, mortgage rates hit 8%. Two years prior to that, there were three, okay? And the housing market didn't crash. Now rates are coming down, they're about 6% today. So if it didn't crash in 2000, or when the rates were 8%, why would they crash now? Okay, so that's one of the things you have to focus in on. So if you just want to follow negative information, please check out one of those other channels. If you want the facts and diving into real estate and figuring out the programs that are best for you and where rates are going and all kinds of other stuff, please visit me at therateupdate.com. My name is Dan Frio. I do this report actually twice a day. I give you the economic report in the morning, where the markets are going, what's real estate looking like, interest rates and things like that. In the evening, I conclude for the day, and then a lot of times we go over programs. We talk with realtors on our live events. I hope if you're in the real estate market, if you're a realtor, please join our channel. Subscribe down below. If you're in the market to buy that first house or you know somebody, refer this channel over to them so they can get the real information on what's truly going on in housing and housing 25. So visit us at therateupdate.com if you're looking to buy that first house. Can you use us? Well, that depends. If you're living off one of the 50 states in the US as well as Puerto Rico, I'm your guy because I work at CervBank. CervBank's the number 10 largest servicer in the entire country. We're huge folks. Plus, we're also one of the country's largest mortgage brokers. We're set up with over 40 different lenders. So think of it this way. Here's my slogo for 2025. One application, one credit pool. We're gonna get you quotes with over 40 different lenders throughout the United States. Let's us do the heavy lifting. Thanks for watching, guys. God bless. Have a fantastic year. And I hope you subscribe down below. You're gonna learn a lot this year. Take care. God bless. I'll see you.