►漢森教授解讀川普動作, 預言俄烏和談的最終走向◄

Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for The Daily Signal. Donald Trump is incurring a lot of criticism lately on the Ukrainian war. He's trying to negotiate an end to the war. Remember, there's probably somewhere around 1.5 million dead, wounded, missing, and captured on both sides together. That is the largest casualty rate figure total in Europe since the Battle of Stalingrad in 1942 and 1943. And his art of the deal style, he came in and he said some things the last week that got people very angry. I'll just give you two examples. He said that Zelensky was a dictator and that he had, quote, should have stopped the war and never started it. That got people anguished because we know that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24th of 2022. So why did Donald Trump say that? Well, of course, he doesn't believe that Zelensky started the war because he has campaigned himself on the following narrative. Under George Bush in 2008, Russia invaded Ossetia and Georgia. In 2014, under the Obama administration, they invaded the Donbas in Crimea. On February 24th of 2022, under Joe Biden, they tried to take Kiev. However, of the last four administrations, there was one in which they did not leave their borders to invade another nation. My administration. Why? Because unlike the prior three presidents, I was able to establish deterrence. And how did I do that? I killed Soleimani, I killed Baghdadi, I destroyed ISIS, I got rid of the Wagner. I did a lot of things that put the fear of God into Vladimir Putin. So Trump knows who started this war. So why did he say it? I think, and he's, he's retracted it now. He said, I didn't mean it that way. What he's trying to say is that this war has been going on for three years. And the Europeans said they were going to come in and this exaltation when, when the, the Russian attack on Kiev was thwarted, this guy in a t-shirt, ex-comedian was a rock star, everybody was going to pour weapons in and save Ukraine. We did more than either any European power or NATO in aggregate. And guess what? It didn't work. Three years later, 1.5 million casualties later, a quarter of the Ukrainian population gone, 600,000 Russians gone, a new alliance between Russia and China. Trump wants to stop it. And he says to Zelensky, don't tell me what I can do and what I can't do. Don't say you have to be in the negotiations. You guys have had three years. I'm coming in. I, we have funded you. So here's, what's going to happen. You are a dictator. Now that is an excessive term, but on the other hand, Zelensky has canceled opposition parties, suppressed opposition press, suspended elements of habeas corpus and suspended elections. Now, some people on the right and left said, well, even Churchill didn't have election for 10 years. Churchill came in and the first thing he did in 1940 was have a coalition government of enemies, rivals, and friends in the war cabinet. Zelensky hasn't done that. So in some ways, yes, he is an authoritarian. The other thing he's been criticized is he says, we want natural resources and minerals. They said, he's a colonialist. He's an imperialist. No, Donald Trump is saying that the United States is very tired of subsidizing and paying for far distant problems when we're running a $37 trillion national debt. This war was on the border of Europe. They said they were going to invest 2% of their GDP as NATO powers in defense. They didn't do it. We have outfunded all of them. And yet we are very distant with an open border ourselves. If we want to be there, we want some compensation. You have valuable minerals. We'll come in and have a concession with you, a business deal. But more importantly, there's a subtext to this. He's also saying, we don't want you in NATO. Europe really doesn't want you in NATO. Russia doesn't want you in NATO, and you're scared to be in NATO yourself. So this is what's going to happen. If you invite American business in to Ukraine to help rebuild it and to profit thereby with natural resources, you're going to have Americans there. And Putin will be less eager to attack you if he understands there's a thriving American concession there. Where are we then? What is the solution? Donald Trump is saying what we all know is going to happen. Number one, they're not going to be in NATO, but guess what? They're going to be better armed and better fighters than any of the 32 countries in NATO. Vladimir Putin knows that. Number two, nobody ever said they were going to get back the Donbass nor Crimea. That's not going to happen. No president said, we're going to give you the military wherewithal to reclaim it. Number three, if we have a negotiated settlement, the hinge, the critical point will be, can Donald Trump put Putin back where he was before he invaded this time, that was on, can he go back to February 23rd of 2022, and Trump will tell him, you're not going to be worried about Ukraine, it's not going to be in NATO, you can go tell all of your friends that you institutionalize the acquisition of Crimea and the Donbass, but we would like you to re-enter the family of nations. We would like you to be able to sell and buy things if we drop sanctions, but for us to do that, it would be wise for you to go back and we'll make a Korea-like DMZ. And that is the negotiation that's transpiring right now. If Donald Trump ends this bloodbath, all of this rhetoric and all of this hysteria will cease and he will be a hero, both in Europe and the United States and in Ukraine and Russia. And final note, he was criticized by how dare you talk to a dictator. Vladimir Putin is a dictator and he's a violent dictator and he's a corrupt dictator and he's an aggressive dictator. But compared to Joseph Stalin, who killed 20 million of his own people, he's an amateur. We had a formal alliance with the Soviet Union because they were the enemy of our enemy, Nazi Germany. Richard Nixon talked to Mao Zedong to try to play him off against the Soviets. Mao Zedong was the greatest mass murderer in history. He killed 70 million people. There's a long history of realpolitik, of talking to odious dictators if it's in the U.S. interest and it lessens the chance of war. This is Victor Davis Hanson for The Daily Signal. If you enjoy this content, please consider subscribing to my channel to stay up to date with future videos. Thank you for watching.