Elon Musk Exposed Why New Glenn FAILED...No More Future!

Nine years ago, Jeff Bezos became a target of ridicule in the space community with his Welcome to the Club tweet to Elon Musk after SpaceX successfully landed a Falcon 9 rocket for the first time. This tweet follows the successful landing of Jeff Bezos' suborbital New Shepard rocket during an uncrewed test flight. But by then, Jeff forgot that SpaceX had been landing rockets for years. Fast forward to today, and it's time for Musk to return the sentiment, Welcome to the Club, Blue Origin. Yes, as SpaceX approaches nearly 400 successful launches, Blue Origin is on the brink of debuting its first orbital rocket, New Glenn, following a successful hot-fire test. This milestone has prompted Jeff Bezos to break his silence after a long time, and the public is waiting for competition heating up between the two companies. But will this mark the beginning of a genuine competition between equally matched contenders, or will it just lead to another humiliation for Blue Origin? Find out everything in today's episode. Anyway, thank you for helping us reach 90,000 subscribers. Our next goal is 100,000, and we need your support to get there. If you haven't subscribed yet, please do. We appreciate your help. Thank you. If you've been following Blue Origin's New Glenn project for a while, you'll know that the New Glenn rocket has been criticized quite a bit for its years-long delays. It's a shame that while BO founder Jeff Bezos keeps hyping his rocket's capabilities, what he's actually showing us is disappointment time and time again. Development of the New Glenn rocket started before 2013, but it hasn't launched yet so far. In the meantime, Blue Origin also rarely updates the project's progress. All of this increasingly raised the question of whether this project exists or is just a marketing ploy for another Jeff Bezos project. However, since Dave Limp became CEO of Blue Origin in December 2022, he has tried a lot to demonstrate New Glenn is real by shifting Blue Origin's reputation from a slow-moving R&D company to a more decisive one. His approach seems to work as on November 21st, the big rocket finally went vertical at Launch Complex 36 in Cape Canaveral, Florida after a long wait. The beast then experienced some pre-launch tests, most notably its first fully integrated static fire test on December 27th, which is the last big technical hurdle. The test is successful, according to Jarrett Jones, Senior Vice President for New Glenn at Blue Origin. Today's success proves that our rigorous approach to testing, combined with our incredible tooling and design engineering, is working as intended. Several hours before test firing, the FAA issued the launch license for New Glenn's first launch. The license allows Blue Origin to conduct orbital missions from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, with the reusable New Glenn first stage landing on a barge in the Atlantic Ocean. It is valid for five years, they added. Neither Mr. Bezos nor his company announced a launch date, but an advisory posted on an aviation industry website indicates the launch date is set no earlier than January 6th, 2025, with a backup opportunity on the 7th. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Blue Origin, has publicly expressed his enthusiasm for the upcoming launch of the New Glenn rocket, stating, next stop launch. In response, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk wished him well with a simple Godspeed. Additionally, Jarrett Isaacman, who is poised to become NASA's next administrator, congratulated Bezos by saying, congrats on the big milestone. The New Glenn rocket, which has been on the launch pad for several weeks, will now return to the hangar for technicians to install its payload, a prototype spacecraft named Blue Ring, designed by Blue Origin to facilitate the movement of other spacecraft in Earth orbit. Dave Limp, CEO of Blue Origin, expressed enthusiasm on X, stating, all we have left to do is mate our encapsulated payload, and then launch. So how about you? Are you excited about Blue Origin's upcoming big rocket launch? Please comment yes if you are. Although Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket fails to meet its launch deadline by the year's end, it has demonstrated that it can compete with other rocket companies in surpassing the Karman line. Blue Origin boasts several advantages over its rivals, including substantial financial backing from Bezos, and a longer operational history than SpaceX, having been in business for 24 years. Nonetheless, the company faces significant challenges as it has yet to achieve orbital flight, while SpaceX has successfully completed nearly 400 missions. With the impending debut of New Glenn, Blue Origin stands on the brink of a new phase in its journey. The success of New Glenn's inaugural launch will serve as a critical indicator of the rocket's capability to support NASA's upcoming Escapade Mars probes mission, which is scheduled for no earlier than spring 2025. Additionally, it is essential for New Glenn to become operational promptly, as it has secured contracts with notable clients such as Eutelsat and Amazon's Project Kuiper for satellite launches. This indicates a promising future launch schedule for the rocket. In addition, Blue Origin has been selected as a contender for the Pentagon's $5.6 billion national security space launch, phase three contracts, along with SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. The three companies will compete for orders over the contract period starting in fiscal year 2025 through 2029. Since this is the first time has been selected to launch sensitive national security satellites, they need to step up to ensure progress. It's safe to say that the whole space community enjoys focusing especially on the New Glenn's upcoming event. Whenever it launches, there should be huge crowds at the beach. The anticipation surrounding the inaugural launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket is palpable, as many hope it will provide a formidable challenge to SpaceX, which has held a dominant position in the space launch industry for years. SpaceX has long enjoyed a monopoly in the commercial launch sector, carrying 90% of all Earth payload to orbit. The arrival of New Glenn is expected to disrupt this status quo, offering a new option for satellite deployment and other space missions. In terms of technology, BO's rocket is advertised with the notable features of a 21st century rocket. Its first stage is designed to be reusable for a minimum of 25 flights, which is aimed at significantly reducing the cost per launch over time. New Glenn's proposed huge payload fairing, seven meter diameter, had one advantage over the contemporary rockets, only five meter diameter fairing. This can be advantageous for launching large satellites or spacecraft components that require significant space. New Glenn is optimized for launching to various Earth orbits, including low Earth orbit and geostationary transfer orbit, with capacities of 45 tons to low Earth orbit and 13 tons to geostationary transfer orbit. This design might be better suited for a broader range of traditional satellite launch missions. Additionally, New Glenn is vastly better in most respects than the US government's Space Launch System, which is way over budget, is also years late, and will be so expensive, two tier four billion dollars per launch, that it can't be used for a sustainable space program. On the other hand, New Glenn has made little progress and has not yet proven its capabilities through any testing flights. So everything is just on paper. The New Glenn's future is even more uncertain as it looks soon to be outclassed by SpaceX's mega Starship rocket. SpaceX announced that Starship will go operational after six or eight years. While New Glenn's design philosophy leans more towards enhancing current space industry demands like satellite deployment, Starship goes much further with the design to be an all-purpose spacecraft with ambitions for interplanetary travel. Starship's unique advantages lie in its ambitious design for fully reusable operations and its substantial payload capacity. With a height of approximately 120 meters and a diameter of 9 meters, it dwarfs New Glenn, which stands at 98 meters tall and has a diameter of 7 meters. This size difference allows Starship to accommodate larger payloads and more complex missions. Moreover, Starship's propulsion system utilizing SpaceX's Raptor engines generates over 16 million pounds of thrust compared to New Glenn's 3.85 million pounds from its BE-4 engines. This immense thrust capability enables Starship to lift heavier payloads and reach higher orbits more efficiently. But the key point here is the difference in working principles between the two companies. Despite Blue Origin's advantages in funding, it faces the challenge of catching up with SpaceX's established track record. SpaceX's rapid growth has been proven over the years, and it is no coincidence that they are ranked among the top in the space industry. Obviously, at present no one has matched them in this aspect. Not to mention SpaceX's current ranking may pale in comparison to what it would be in the future under Jared Isaacman's first term at NASA. Jared Isaacman has a close relationship with SpaceX, as you know. He partnered with SpaceX through Polaris Dawn and Inspiration4. He also sided with Elon Musk in his lawsuit against the California Coastal Commission when officials refused to increase SpaceX launches in California. Many believe that if Jared Isaacman becomes the head of NASA, he could influence the agency's policies to favor innovative and cost-effective companies like SpaceX. Historically, NASA has distributed contracts among various private firms, opting to share opportunities rather than concentrating them with a single company. The agency aims to support companies that may struggle to survive independently by providing them with essential funding and a platform for growth, as it did with SpaceX in its formative years. Isaacman has previously expressed concerns that federal contracting practices often lead to inefficiency and waste. As a taxpayer, do you want a competitive process that rewards investments in innovation and timely delivers best product for lowest cost, or a structure that incentivizes delays and budget overruns from the usual brands? Consequently, under his leadership, there might be a shift towards awarding more contracts to SpaceX, which could contradict NASA's traditional approach. This consideration is valid, given that SpaceX frequently emerges as both the most affordable and capable bidder for contracts. Of course, Blue Origin could gain the same benefit if they offer better competitive advantages. But it seems to be very challenging. Talking about the future, Jeff Bezos expresses his confidence about the future of Blue Origin, saying the company has a lot of runway. Given that he can continue to finance it through sales of Amazon.com shares. Blue Origin is going to do some amazing things here. It's not a very good business yet, he acknowledged, but offered high aspirations for it. From a business point of view, from a financial returns point of view, I think it's going to be the best business I've ever been involved in, but it's going to take a while. More importantly, he gave an estimation that the company would ultimately be bigger than Amazon, which had a market cap, as of the close of trading, December 4th of about $2.3 trillion. So, what do you think about Blue Origin's future? Can they beat SpaceX to get the lion's share of NASA's contract in the long-term future? Don't hesitate to share your thoughts about this matter. Although New Glenn's inaugural test flight may be postponed until next year, Jeff Bezos remains determined to narrow the gap in the space race with Elon Musk. In an unexpected move, Blue Origin's founder has begun following Musk on X, which could be seen as an attempt to mend their fraught relationship. Or it reflects another plot. Both billionaires have amassed their fortunes through groundbreaking technology companies, but Musk has consistently outpaced Bezos in their shared goal of space colonization. Their rivalry began in 2004, characterized by public criticisms, including Musk labeling Bezos a copycat for his space endeavors. Recently, tensions escalated when Musk accused Bezos of suggesting that others sell their Tesla and SpaceX stocks, a claim that Bezos denied. Bezos's recent decision to follow Musk on X comes as he is approaching two significant milestones. Blue Origin is preparing for the launch of New Glenn, which will directly rival SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 rockets. Additionally, Amazon, under Bezos's leadership as executive chair, is set to roll out Project Kuiper, a satellite network designed to compete with SpaceX's Starlink in providing internet access from low-Earth orbit. Together, these initiatives represent a bold challenge to SpaceX's stronghold in the commercial space market. The introduction of New Glenn and Project Kuiper marks a new chapter in the ongoing rivalry between the founders of Amazon and Tesla. While both have achieved remarkable success in their respective industries, Musk has outperformed Bezos in the realm of space exploration, reshaping rocket technology, and launch frequency through SpaceX's innovations. SpaceX's reusable rocket boosters have significantly lowered launch costs and increased the frequency of payload deliveries to orbit. This innovation is particularly beneficial for transporting satellites, cargo, and crew to space stations, as it provides governments and other customers with limited alternatives. With launches occurring every few days, SpaceX accounted for approximately 85 percent of all orbital mass sent into space in the last quarter, which is 12 times more than the next largest competitor, China's primary government contractor. This year alone, SpaceX has completed over 130 launches and is currently testing a larger rocket called Starship. Additionally, SpaceX's Starlink network boasts more than 6,000 satellites in orbit, serving over 4 million customers and providing crucial internet access to remote areas, including war zones and rural regions. In contrast, although Jeff Bezos founded Blue Origin around the same time, it has yet to launch any payloads into orbit. The reasons for this bitter fact are revealed by Bezos' founder himself in an interview in 2023. During the interview, Bezos candidly acknowledged that Blue Origin needs to be much faster, and it's one of the reasons that I left my role as the CEO of Amazon a couple of years ago. Slowness partly comes from indecision, not daring to take risks and fail. It's safe to say that BO gets obsessed with getting things exactly right, which is reflected clearly through the logo, which is a feather that symbolizes the perfection of Although the BE-4 engine has the same thrust as Starship's Raptor 2, it is still not considered as powerful as the Raptor in general. This is due to the philosophy of living in a safe zone that BO has pursued all the time, meaning never testing the engine in its final frontier to reduce the risk of explosion as much as possible. The information surrounding the development of New Glenn rocket is rarely shared with the public because BO probably does not want to reveal its weaknesses. However, does this make sense anymore now that the world knows about their slowness? Jeff Bezos and his rocket company have become the focus of public criticism. People call BO the big joke in the aerospace industry. New Glenn is the toy next to Starship. The slowness and lack of reliability in the BO rocket development process caused Jeff to continuously lose valuable contracts to Elon. On the other hand, SpaceX is famously not afraid to fail. They also failed multiple times in their attempts to land the Falcon rocket many years ago, and the company narrowly went bankrupt in 2021. Starship's Raptor engines have been continuously pushed to the limitation in tests, leading to a series of explosions and, most seriously, the damage on OLM last April, causing the seven-month holding up of Starship. Despite these obstacles, Elon Musk still upholds the spirit of never giving up. It explains why Jeff Bezos is increasingly determined to accelerate Blue Origin's pace, starting with shaking up the leadership of the company. Last year, former Amazon executive Dave Limp, who ran products such as Kindle, was pointed to replace the former chief executive officer of Jeff Bezos' space company, Blue Origin, Bob Smith. Bob Smith has led Jeff Bezos' rocket company since 2017. He was a long-time aerospace executive at Honeywell. During his tenure at Blue Origin, the company flew the first crewed mission of the New Shepard suborbital rocket. to the edge of space in 2021. However, Smith has faced criticism for his leadership of Blue Origin, including an open letter from former employees in 2021 alleging safety concerns and a sexist environment. Dave Limp has been the lead executive on Project Kuiper and previously spent 15 years at Amazon. He believes that adopting the e-commerce giant's customer-focused approach could be crucial for revitalizing Blue Origin. He noted that when he took over nearly a year ago, the company was overly focused on research and development and needed to accelerate manufacturing while prioritizing customer needs, whether they were scientists or space tourists. Limp identified two primary objectives for 2024, increasing engine production and successfully launching the New Glenn rocket. The company aims to have New Glenn ready for launch by the end of the year, which would significantly demonstrate its ability to compete with SpaceX if successful. Limp emphasized the importance of transitioning from creating impressive prototypes to becoming a world-class manufacturer, highlighting the need for a shift in focus to meet customer demands effectively. And that just about wraps it up for today's episode. Thank you and we look forward to seeing you next time.