😱 MUST WATCH: JPMorgan Warns—You Will Lose 30% of Your Money!

It's JPMorgan's most terrifying warning yet. I'm Steve Van Meter and what's unfolding across the global economy right now could slam the S&P 500 down by another 30%. Stick around because what happened last week could be just the beginning of what's to come. Now let's head over to Bloomberg where we picked today's story up on the headline. It's JPMorgan says Trump's tariffs descend U.S. deep into a recession. And now all of a sudden after everyone thought the tariffs were going to come in light and that Trump was going to back down and the equity markets were going to surge higher. Everybody is panicking. Stocks are crashing. And based on what we saw going into Friday's clove, it looks like Monday morning could be an even bigger bloodbath. Now JPMorgan signaling that the global equity market set to go lower with the S&P 500 potentially going down, if you can believe this, 30% or more. We'll show you why. Because they now expect real GDP to contract under the weight of the tariffs and for the full year, that's Q4, we're looking for real GDP growth down 0.3% year over year. And this is a big issue because when you talk about where the economy goes and where the equity markets go, it has to do with growth. And right now, everybody is saying growth is going to outright plunge. Now remember, it was meant to surge higher. But there's another factor here. The forecasted contraction in economic activity is expected to depress hiring and overtime to lift the unemployment rate to 5.3%. And this makes perfect sense because demand is expected to go down. We know the price is likely to rise at some point due to the tariffs. And this is an issue because consumers right now cannot afford prices where they're at. We've already seen demand declining. If you see prices go up any further, it means demand is going to fall. And the other issue we're facing is there's a big inventory build-up running into these tariffs. So what's known to happen now is demand falls to the floor. You're going to see a lot of retailers and wholesalers, they're not going to need more product and this is going to backflow right up the supply chain to the manufacturing level. What you're going to see is they're going to start cutting hours, they're going to cut jobs. This is going to backflow all across the services sector because a lot of people don't realize the services sector gets most of their business from the manufacturing sector. Let's take a look at the charts because we can see that when growth and unemployment go the wrong direction, it points us right into a recession, which is now JP Morgan's base case. As we look at real GDP in blue against the unemployment rate in red, and I have the unemployment rate inverted so you can see the effects when the economy starts to slow down, as we can clearly see here in the late 1980s, it doesn't impact the labor market right away. In fact, the labor market holds up, but as the economy further slows, what happens, eventually employers start to lay off. This is what JP Morgan is saying is coming and then you plunge right into a recession. You can see the same thing happen going to the dot-com bubble. GDP growth was fairly steady and then all of a sudden it started to slow down. The labor market held on and then it broke. And we can even look at what happened during the global financial crisis. You can see the economy was on a long, slowing path to the downside. Labor market actually holding up quite well despite that fact. And next thing you know, the labor market breaks were full force right into the global financial crisis. And now the expectation is with growth slowing and inventory levels sitting at record levels, what that means for the labor market is we're going to see demand for workers plunge, not just here in the US, but all over the world. And so what JP Morgan is worrying about, one of the biggest and most dangerous economic conditions that's almost guaranteed to send us plunging into recession. And that's the best case because we could be facing an all out financial crisis. They're saying they have a stagflationary forecast, something those of you that watch the show on a regular basis know I've been saying is coming. And JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to have been cutting its benchmark rate in June and proceed with rate cuts at each meeting through January, bringing the benchmark down to 2.75 to 3% from the current range. And back on yesterday's show, we saw that Fed Chair Jerome Powell actually had a speaking engagement. He said, look, the Fed is not going to do anything. We're not going to react. We remain data dependent. And so what JP Morgan saying the data is not going to catch up until June. If you can imagine, that means there's a lot of downside risk for the economy before the Fed runs to the rescue. That is, if you believe in the magical powers of the Fed, those cuts would come despite the rise in a key measure of underlying inflation of 4.4% by the end of the year from the current level of 2.8, as many experts now saying that the tariffs are going to lead to a huge surge in inflation, despite the fact that we've seen energy prices plunge in the last several days, right alongside the stock market. So the energy market saying is, look, there may be inflationary forces coming, but it's going to lead to less demand across the board. And so the risk is, and we see this going to do every recession, you see inflation rising, you see growth slowing, and then the labor market breaks. And that's the exact recipe of why JP Morgan saying stagflation is coming and why we've been warning the same thing. Let's take a look at the Fed's ability to come to the rescue because it is about the labor market. You know, we hear about inflation from the Fed when things are good, or at least from the Fed's opinion when things are good. But when the labor market breaks, that is the key signal for the Fed. JP Morgan suggesting now it doesn't break until June. But I want to know what you think. Do you think the labor market holds out that long? Or do you think as soon as these tariffs now are starting to go in place, that employers are going to panic, cut hours and cut jobs? I want to know from you what you see at your employer way in the comments below, because when we take a look at the unemployment rates now shown in this normal format, we go back to late 1980s. And what do we see? The labor market bottoms out. And compared to the federal fund rate, what do you see from those very high levels up there around almost 10%? The Fed trims a little bit. It has minimal impact. The trend still is increasing. And the next thing you know, the labor market comes completely unwound as we go into the 91 recession. The Fed's aggressively cutting. But you know, the rate cuts don't make a difference. I'm going to tell you why here in a moment, but let's continue. Because what happens around 2000, the labor market starts to bottom out. The trend of unemployment starts to take up a little bit. The Fed goes on pause. And then as the labor market unwinds, they aggressively cut once again, makes no difference. You see the same thing going to the global financial crisis. The unemployment rate is on the rise. The Fed's fixated on inflation. And next thing you know, all hell breaks loose. The Fed cuts makes no difference. And now JP Morgan is saying it won't be June until the Fed cuts again. The labor market may not hold out that long, but why don't rate cuts matter? You know, we hear from the Fed that it causes the economy to get more liquidity and they're making financial conditions easier by cutting rates. But here's something I want you to understand. There's a big reason why rate cuts don't work in a recession is because people that don't have a job can't get a loan. It doesn't matter what the rate is, the banks won't lend. And if realized, our stagflationary forecast would present a dilemma to Fed policymakers. We believe material weakness in the labor market holds sway in the end. And that is absolutely true. You know, inflation can go up and the Fed will still cut into a recession as long as the labor market's unwinding. But if the labor market holds steady and inflation goes up, the Fed's not going to do anything here, particularly if it results in weaker wage growth and thereby giving the committee more confidence that a wage price spiral isn't taking hold. Well, we know wage price spiral isn't going to take hold. That's the obvious thing because tariffs do not allow employers to actually give out pay raises. This is a tax, my friends. And so employers, when they raise their prices, that means their margins go up and when their margins go up, they can hand out raises to their employees. But this isn't something that's driven by an employer. It's driven by a tax. It's called a tariff. Now, I want to know, do you agree with me? Do you disagree with me? Weigh in the comments below. Do you think the tariffs are going to lead to job creation or not? On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, quote, it feels like we don't need to be in a hurry to make any adjustments to the federal funds rate. And that's what, of course, we expected to hear from the Fed. Because what is Fed Chair Powell know is tariffs go up quickly. They can come down quickly. A lot of people think that President Trump is trying to engineer a recession here to get the Fed to cut rates. And this is an interesting idea because if he can get the Fed to cut rates, and we know Congress tends to react when the economy goes into recession, and then they can pass the tax cuts, what he could do at this point is refinance all of the government debt at ultra low rates. I want to know what you think. Do you think this is a planned move? Do you think he's deliberately trying to crash the economy so he can turn it around for a win? Or do you think this is just a byproduct of what it's going to take to reshape global trade to bring jobs back home here to America? But despite the fact that the market's plunging doesn't mean you have to take a loss. In fact, you could be making money right now, just like my subscribers. Back on March 10th, we told our subscribers to bribe Brazilian equities as the U.S. equity market was headed lower. They made 7% in less than two weeks. Now we're seeing everything head down. How did we do that? Well, we track machine positioning every day, but we run a historical overlay to find out when the machines are off sides. And right now the machines are selling and selling everything, but we've got our subscribers in the one thing the machines are still buying. You can join them, make money in this downturn. And then when the bottom hits, well, our subscribers are going to cash in big and you can too. Hit the links in the description below, grab the coupon code for a free 30 day free trial. Because let's talk about this issue of average hourly earnings, the notion that this is going to rise is absolutely ridiculous. I'll show you why these experts have it wrong. Because when you see the unemployment rate rise, what does it tell you about the labor market? That there's an increase in supply. So if there's an instant increase in supply and work, what does it mean if you're an employer? Do you have to give out wage gains? Well, of course you don't. Because if your employees complain, you can always get rid of them and find someone on the unemployment line, which is why we see exactly what we see throughout history. When the unemployment rate starts to rise, yes, the employers are still giving out raises until they realize they don't have to. And then you see those wage gains start to decelerate in a big way. So again, the notion that we're going to have a wage price spiral here is highly unlikely, considering the J.B. Morgan said they think the unemployment rate goes up to around 5.3%. Sure enough, you see that happen going to the dot-com bubble. You see wage growth decelerate. Happens again going through the global financial crisis. The fact of the matter is, it's sitting at a pretty high level here, around 4%. But that's not going to last. It's likely to head lower because, again, it all comes down to supply and demand in the economy. And with the supply of labor rising, employers don't have to give out a lot of hours. They don't have to give out big pay raises because, again, if people complain, there's someone else that will take their job. And Trump's 10% baseline tariff on most U.S. imports has now taken effect as of today. It's only going to get worse because the baseline charges kicked in. Higher duties on some countries, which replace rather than add to the 10% rate, are due to start on April 9th. So we're going to see further pain in four days as countries are weighing how to respond to Trump's latest levies, which raised U.S. tariffs to their highest level in more than a century and battered the post-World War II trading system he has long decried as unfair. I want to know from you, do you think our old system was unfair? Do you think what we're doing is unfair? Because late Thursday, Trump indicated he wouldn't be willing to lower his duties as other nations offered him something, quote, phenomenal. And now you're starting to see why JP Morgan is saying, look, we could see an all-out bear market. We could see stocks plunge by as much as 30%. Because many people thought the tariffs were just going to be put out there to negotiate and that it would go away quickly. Now President Trump is saying, wait a minute, no, the tariffs are permanent, they're not leaving at all unless I get a great deal. And the issue here for the business sector is they don't like uncertainty and they don't like a lot of uncertainty. And this is what's starting to hit the markets. Everyone's starting to realize that perhaps this could go on for a long time. Only the week will fail, Trump said on a post on True Social as he continued to paint a rosy picture when it comes to the plan for tariffs that he unveiled earlier this week. And this is exactly what I said it would be. It's a game of economic chicken. The week actually will fall first. That is the game plan here. But there's a challenge because what JP Morgan is saying, what the U.S. equity markets are saying is that maybe the U.S. economy isn't as strong as everyone thinks. Maybe we're not as resilient. Maybe we could be the first to fall. And you think about some of the issues that I brought up, stimulus, we don't have it. We have the fact that Doge is laying off a lot of government employees. And while the long-term cutting government expenses is a great plan to keep our debt levels at a moderate level, and I agree with the timing of this, it doesn't make a lot of sense, particularly as we have really high inventory levels. What we're facing, it would be the U.S. economy plunging headfirst, not just into a recession, but this could turn out to be a massive depression. Remember, a 30% move down is the beginning of just what a recession can look like. You can go 50% in an all-out depression. And big business is not worried about the tariffs, Trump said, because they know they are here to stay, but focused on the big, beautiful deal which will supercharge our economy. He said it's very important what's going on right now. Well, it is very important because it's rattling the markets who thought the tariffs were going to be temporary. And now what they're finding out, they may not be temporary at all. And we're starting to see some knock-on effects. Let's turn to Canada because you see why businesses are actually panicking right now. 6,000 Canadian auto workers are idled on day one of U.S. tariffs. And we're going to see more of this across the factory level as businesses start to worry. And look what we saw then following that, is Jaguar Land Rover is pausing car exports to the U.S. on tariffs. And what is that going to mean for jobs in the countries where they produce cars? Well, it means workers are going to be idled. So we look back at history, and I can tell you why the markets are rattled here, because the last time we saw a big surge in tariffs, well, it triggered something called the Great Depression. Here we see a history of tariffs in the United States, just from a chart from CNBC. Go back to the 1920s and what happened. Tariffs started to go up, and that's where the economy held. But when they went up even more, it broke the economy, plunging us right into the Great Depression. And now we can see we went from virtually 2.5% tariffs straight to 18.8%. The difference is, you go back to the 1920s, what was happening? It was called the Roaring Twenties. The economy was booming back then, but the tariffs let us slow down. When you look at the economy today, over the last year, what do you see around the world? Slowing down. Timing of this could, again, plunge us right into a depression. This is why JPMorgan is saying we could go down 30%, maybe even more, and let's take a deeper look, because the S&P still has plenty of room to fall if the recession is inevitable. And right now, for many people, that is coming true. Many people believe that. I want to know from you. Do you think a recession is inevitable? Do you think something changes in the near-term future that turns the equity markets and the economy around? I want to hear from you. Weigh in the comments. Because, historically, the S&P 500's trailing price-to-earnings ratio slides down to an average of 15.6% during rounds that precede economic downturns. It's currently at 23%, despite the recent sell-off, meaning there's still plenty of room for share prices to fall, and a lot. If we look at the S&P's average trailing P.E. ratio, you can see the baseline of when you have a recession, those are shown in red. Some point, stocks get down to that level. Other times, they massively overshoot, like they did during the global financial crisis. What we can see now is that investors, highly leveraged, highly exposed to the U.S. equity market, and based on what we're seeing, have a long way to come down. Let me show you, because here are the 2025 EPS scenarios. If we get back to roughly 15.2, that's somewhere right around 16, that puts the S&P 500 somewhere between $3,500 and $4,000, if you can imagine. If we fall back around the 2018 low, that means S&P 500 down as low as $3,100 to $3,500. There's your 30% drop. If we're in a depression, it gets even worse. Now you're talking around $2,500 on the S&P. Now, generationally speaking, those would be great buying opportunities. The problem is, a lot of people have to push the sell button, and based on what we saw Let's take a look at why this is so dangerous for stocks when you see stagflation that we've been warning about, and now JP Morgan is sounding the alarm, because when you see the unemployment rate rise, and you see growth slow, on top of that with inflation taking up, well you get the 91 recession, then you get the dot-com bubble, then you get the global financial crisis, and then you're at right where we're at today, facing what could be a massive plunge in the S&P, down into the low $3,000 range potentially, maybe stopping at $4,000, but in all, depression could go down as down as much as $2,500, if you can imagine that. And that will be a big win for our subscribers, because they're going to be profiting on the way down, as we've got them positioned to make money during the downturn, and the best part, we're going to position to make money on that next up-cycle. Again, how do we do this? Each and every day, we look at how the machines are positioned across the market, because they trade hundreds of billions of dollars, but we run a historical overlay, because machines look at a very short-term view of the market, so we want to find out when they need to be buyers, so we can position our subscribers ahead of them, and we want to know when they're selling, so we can get our subscribers out, and we've nailed a lot of trades recently, and more importantly, got our clients out of the market, and into what is going up, and we integrate all that historical data right into our hot list, each and every day, and again, you get the positioning across the broad equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets, and we tend to lead where the machines go, because of our historical models, but here's the best part, you don't just get the daily reports, and all the tradable signals, I review all the trades, and give you my opinion on them, I give you risk control levels, full tracking of trades in return, a weekly update, and here's the best part of all, a free 30-day free trial, that's right, you don't even have to put one penny down to get the reports, I want your first 30 days to be on me, grab the links in the description below, use the coupon codes, get your free 30-day free trial, make money as this market melds down, and then make money from the bottom up, with that, I'm Steve Ammeter, thanks for watching, thanks for being fans, bye now.