Military convoys and rocket clouds: Countdown to 4th Plenum and APEC

Hello. Hi. All right. We're live. Okay. Excellent. Well, hi, everyone. Welcome back. This is our last program for September. October starts tomorrow. I have a feeling it's going to be an eventful month. Are you ready? Well, after one year's delay, Beijing has finally announced its long anticipated fourth plenum. It will be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd, less than three weeks from now. The question on everyone's mind, does this mean Xi Jinping is just weeks away from stepping down? Today's show is packed. Unusual military movements in and around Beijing this week. Premier Li Qiang dropping hints in New York about a power shift in Zhongnanhai. Xi Jinping's alleged plan B for exile after his first escape plan collapsed. And Beijing's sudden cancellation of a hotel booking in Seoul for his AIPAC, for Xi Jinping's AIPAC trip. It's a mix of hard evidence and quiet whispers, facts, and leaks. So tonight we'll gather the evidence, connect the dots, and take a closer look at what might unfold ahead of us. All right. So the dates of the fourth plenum was announced after the monthly Politburo meeting on the 29th. Already the signs are unusual. Now, the day before the Politburo meeting, multiple eyewitnesses reported seeing a massive convoy of military vehicles leaving Baoding. Actually, I have the video. Here we go. Let me just mute it. Let me mute it because the audio really doesn't offer much. So these vehicles were left Baoding, Hebei, and were heading Beijing on highways. And there are troop carriers, armored vehicles, supply trucks, and some people even spotted medical units. And somebody counted more than 100 vehicles. And then Baoding, as you know, is home to the PLA's 82nd Group Army, which belongs to the Central Theater Command. And this unit is directly controlled by Zhang Youxia. I'm just trying to match names with faces. And so who is Zhang Youxia? Well, he is Xi Jinping's most powerful rival inside the military. So when the 82nd Army rose out in force and appears to head toward Beijing, just before a critical party meeting, people notice. So yes, technically, it could be routine training, but the timing makes that hard to believe. With the plenum just weeks away, it reflects the fierce factional struggle inside Zhongnanhai. Whichever way you frame it, next month's plenum won't be business as usual. It feels like something much bigger, the kind of meeting that requires weapons and soldiers to guarantee absolute security and to keep order no matter what. And then things got stranger. On the evening of September 30th, that's tonight or last night. Here we go. Let me mute this. There's just really no audio. It's just background noise so I could talk over it. Residents in Beijing looked up and saw mysterious lights streaking across the western sky, glowing points, dragging long tails, leaving behind what looked like rocket clouds. I think it just looks like there's a rocket in the sky. And videos quickly spread online. And the question everyone asked was the same. Well, what happened in western Beijing or in the western suburbs of Beijing? Because this took place in the western suburbs of Beijing. And take a look. And there's another clip. This video is about two minutes long. I had a second clip. Let's just give it a little bit more time. Yeah, so it looks like a rocket. Obviously, it's a rocket. All right. Okay. Is there a second piece? Yeah, there is. Okay. It's coming up. All right. Let's see. It's coming up. I saw it. Oh, here it is. Yeah. This is from another view. People are panicking. All right. So now, because it's so sensitive, because the place that this took, that this happened, is right over the Western Hills or Xishan. Now, in western Beijing, there's a place called Western Hills. And that was no ordinary place. That's one of Beijing's most heavily fortified military zones. Inside those mountains are air defense radar systems, bases for the strategic support force and the rocket force, and a command and control hub, and even underground bunkers designed to shelter China's top leaders in a crisis. So in short, it's a fortress for the party elite. And so when something unusual lights up the sky above that place, it's not just a curiosity, it's a signal. So people were asking, was it a weapons test, a show of force, or was it something else entirely linked to the tense political countdown to the platinum? Now comes the bigger question. Will Xi Jinping step aside? And if so, how? So people generally come up with four possible scenarios. The first, Xi Jinping neither gives up power nor position. But that looks unlikely because he has already stepped back in practice, handing party affairs to Cai Qi and state administration to his Premier Li Qiang, and military matters to Zhang Youxia. So the second scenario is Xi Jinping gives up both power and position. That's the opposite of the first scenario, meaning that he will step down entirely in three weeks. That also seems improbable. The anti-Xi camp hasn't decisively crushed him. Unless something dramatic happens from now until then, Xi Jinping may simply dig in and refuse to go. So that leaves two middle paths, both moving him to the second line. The first one is called relinquish power but not position. So in that case, Xi Jinping keeps the big titles like the general secretary, state president, and so on, but lets other people exercise the real authority. And the other scenario is relinquish position but not power. That would mean giving up one or two titles while still pulling the strings from behind the curtain, basically running from behind the scenes. Now of these, I think the most likely scenario is a hybrid. That is, he relinquishes power and most of his jobs or titles, but keeps one position for face saving. The likeliest outcome is that he gives up the general secretary position and the chairmanship of the CMC, stepping back from real power, but holds on to the presidency as a ceremonial role until either the two sessions in 2026 or the 21st Party Congress in 2027. In other words, the fourth plenum will start transition Xi's power to the next team, and Beijing is already signaling a power shift and hinting at who the next leader will be. That brings us to Li Qiang's recent trip to New York. Let's talk about this guy. So, the Wall Street Journal reported that while attending the UN Assembly, the premier held closed door meetings with American business leaders and scholars, such as people from the US-China Business Council, the National Committee on US-China Relations, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Council on Foreign Relations, and many top executives. And in his talk, Li compared US-China relations to a marriage, saying couples may quarrel, even fight, but still maintain a close bond because they need each other. The journal interpreted this as a signal of Beijing's desire for stability at a time when Trump and Xi had just spoken by phone. That's the standard read. Most people read it like that. But they missed something huge, a political signal hiding in plain sight. I don't know if the reporters or the editors working at the journal didn't see it, or if they simply chose not to tell us, but it's very obvious. So, to understand that, you need two pieces of background. First, Li Qiang is China's number two guy, the head of government, second only to Xi, who leads the party. This was his first trip to the US as premier, and in nearly a decade, he is the first Chinese premier to visit. So for him to speak so directly to American business and policy elites, even in a closed-door setting, means he was not freelancing or improvising. He was voicing an official, high-level position. Second, the US-China marriage metaphor was not Li Qiang's invention. It was this guy's, Wang Yang. There's a whole story behind this expression. Back in July 2013, during the fifth Sino-US strategic and economic dialogue in Washington, Wang Yang, then vice premier in charge of US-China relations, used it. Xi Jinping had just taken power, and Wang was making his debut in that role as vice premier in charge of US-China relations. His counterpart was Treasury Secretary at the time, Jacob Lew. There he was, there he is, I should say, who was also new to his post. So, I think Jacob Lew took the position in February of 2013. So this remark came in July. So Wang Yang joked that since they were both newcomers, they were like newlyweds. You know, the Chinese expression newcomers, xinren, also could mean newlyweds. So that's where the joke or the metaphor came from. So he and Wang Yang even poked fun at Rupert Murdoch's messy divorce from Wendy Dunn, saying that the US-China couldn't afford a divorce like that. So it was completely off the cuff, but it landed well. The American delegation laughed. Major outlets like the Wall Street Journal and Reuters described it as colorful and vivid. Even Chinese state media joined it at first. People's Daily's English edition said Wang's metaphor reflected the two countries' inseparable economic partnership, praising his wit and humor. But the praise didn't last long. Soon after he returned to China, Wang was heavily criticized inside the party. Heartliners said the couple metaphor demeaned China, made it sound like a housewife dependent on the US, and undermined national dignity. And online, Chinese nationalists accused Wang of groveling. So America is the husband and we're the wife? Actually, it's not a bad metaphor at all. In Western culture, ladies first, right? What's wrong being the wife? I don't understand. So maybe the Chinese always perceived the wife as being inferior to the husband? Anyways. So under pressure, Wang dropped the metaphor entirely. He never mentioned it again. So from then on, it became his personal scarlet letter, a sensitive tag no one else dared to touch, especially after Xi Jinping launched the Wolf Warrior diplomacy and pushed the slogan of East Rising, West Declining. Fast forward to now, to 2025. Li Qiang suddenly resurrected that phrase. That's extraordinary. There's no way he did it on his own. But do you think Xi Jinping authorized him to do that? Never. Not only because it's Wang Yang's line, but because Wang is considered one of Xi Jinping's biggest political rivals. So why would Xi Jinping put his rival's label on his own forehead? That's impossible. So that leaves one explanation. The signal didn't come from Xi, it came from those outside him or above him, most likely from the decision-making and coordination body. Remember, there was an announcement coming out a few months ago announcing this decision-making body made up of party elders. So multiple leaks suggest that Wen Jiabao is the group's head. So Wen Jiabao is actually the head of that decision-making and coordination body. That's like Xi Jinping's mother-in-law overseeing his activities. So it was said that Wen Jiabao is the group's head and Wang Yang is serving as the executive deputy. So what Li Qiang did in New York was essentially deliver Wang Yang's message. By reviving Wang's US-China marriage or couple metaphor before America's top elites, it was telling Washington Wang Yang is back. He is the one shaping US-China relations now or maybe going forward and not Xi Jinping. And the fact that Li Qiang, the sitting premier, followed this instruction shows just how much sway the party elders camp currently has over the political landscape. Put simply, the premier's remark confirms many leaks and whispers that Wang Yang is poised to replace Xi Jinping as interim party leader until the 21st Congress. Okay, not as the permanent one, but the interim party leader until October 2027. Another commentator also claimed that Xi Jinping's downfall at the fourth plenum has already been verbally notified to the hundreds of central committee members. So there are, it's a 205 members. So in the central committee, there are 205 full members and about 170 alternate members. So it was said that this decision has already been communicated to the 200 members who are the highest ranking CCP officials. And reportedly, Hu Jintao suggested that the reshuffle was unavoidable, but all positions would only be interim until the 21st Party Congress. So it sounds like they will make a wide range of personnel changes at the fourth plenum, but all those changes are only interim or temporary until the 21st Party Congress. And all four major factions apparently agreed that Wang Yang is the safest interim candidate. Nobody sees him as a threat. The four factions are the Xi Jinping faction, the Hu Jintao faction, the Prince Lin faction, and then possibly the Jiang Zemin faction. So he's most likely the next party leader, while Hu Chunhua is most likely to take Li Qiang's place as the next premier, also as interim. And this confirms our previous predictions. I've said this many times, that Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua will be the next leadership duo. But here's the question, will Xi Jinping willingly accept this? I don't think so. Which is why, according to one commentator, he's preparing something unthinkable, an exit plan, an exile. And this time, he isn't planning it. Actually, this is not the first time he's planning it, because a few months ago, it was revealed that Xi Jinping's wife had been arranging an escape plan for him through Xinjiang. Remember, I did that program. And it was through this guy, if you still remember him. So the plan was for Xi Jinping to go through Xinjiang into Kazakhstan. The operation was said to involve Ma Xinrui, the man you see on the screen, then party secretary of Xinjiang. But that plan collapsed, and Ma was urgently summoned to Beijing and swiftly removed from his post. That closed the Kazakhstan route. And according to the leak, Kazakhstan was supposed to be Xi's first stop, a temporary refugee before deciding on his ultimate destination. And Russia, despite the public no limits partnership, has never been his preferred option. Think about it. If he had to flee to Moscow, Putin, who's already tied down in Ukraine, would face a nightmare, a nightmare choice. If he hands Xi Jinping back, then he looks like a ruthless, unreliable friend. If he shelters him, and he would anger Beijing while inviting pressure from the West. So either way, Putin will be put in a very difficult situation. He will be squeezed from all sides. So Russia has never been Xi Jinping's top pick. So his plan B is allegedly Pyongyang. And North Korea has some clear advantages, according to this leak. First is geography. It's close. If he suddenly loses power, he wouldn't have the time or safety to fly thousands of kilometers to Moscow. He still remembers what happened to Lin Biao in 1971. Remember when Mao's chosen heir tried to escape China, tried to fly to Russia, and his plane was shot down in Mongolia. So Xi Jinping definitely remembers this. Secondly, Putin and Xi may call each other best friends, but their alliance is purely transactional. But North Korea is different. It's a nuclear-armed, isolated state, and it's not under international pressure. Or you could say it's under so much international pressure that it doesn't matter anymore. So that makes it a safer bet. And according to insiders, during the September 3rd parade, Xi Jinping paid Kim Jong-un a hefty amount of money for him to appear in Beijing. So the two are now on good terms. Yeah, because Xi Jinping gave him a good amount of money. And the third reason is Korea is an East Asian country, and the culture is similar to China. Russia, after all, is a European country. And the leak even goes further to say that Xi Jinping may be forced to surrender two of his posts while in presidency at the fourth plenum. And then this means that his entire faction would collapse. And if that happens, political retribution becomes inevitable. Because you may ask, well, if he still holds on to one position and relinquishes the other two, why does he have to think about fleeing China? Well, it's because of the political retribution. Recent viral stories, like the suspicious death of actor Yu Menglong, and the bizarre car crash in Sydney, Australia, involving a mysterious young woman and a million-dollar vehicle, have only reinforced Xi Jinping's sense that he's running out of time, because these events are all aimed at him. So he feels compelled to prepare an exile plan. Now, North Korea's foreign minister was in Beijing two days ago. And it was kind of interesting because this was her second time in Beijing in a month. So you wonder, why does she come back to Beijing for the second time? Other than the usual business, allegedly, well, this is allegedly, Xi Jinping discussed his exile plan with the foreign minister. First is escape routes by air, land, and sea, with backups for each. Second is political status, how she will be treated once inside North Korea. Three, economic guarantees, the money and benefits she would funnel to Pyongyang. Last is public narrative, how to explain his flight to North Korea and manage the fallout. Okay, so I do not know if the above claim is true or not. I shared it with you just to provide a different perspective, because I think it's interesting, it's relevant, and we should not overlook it. But you may say, wait a minute, Xi Jinping isn't fleeing to North Korea. Isn't he supposed to be going to South Korea right after the fourth plenum to attend APEC? Supposedly, yes. Xi Jinping is expected to visit South Korea from October 31st to November 1st. For the APEC leaders' informal summit in a place called Gyeongju. I don't know if I'm saying this South Korean city's name correctly. Gyeongju. Okay, anyways, so Xi Jinping may even meet South Korean and American leaders on the sidelines. But here's the catch. People are now debating whether he will actually make the trip. There's already controversy around it. Where are the pictures? Okay, so this is the APEC. This is breaking news. According to Korean media, South Korean media, just 16 days ago on, I think, yeah, what, the 14th? Anyway, 16 days ago, the Chinese embassy booked out the entire Shilla Hotel in Seoul for Xi Jinping's delegation. Now, this is the hotel. Here's the hotel. This is a prestigious hotel. This is the hotel that Xi Jinping stays every time he visited Seoul. And to accommodate him, the hotel abruptly canceled eight weddings scheduled for early November, affecting hundreds of guests, if not more. Couples who had already sent invitations were suddenly told a state-level event was taking priority. Everyone assumed this meant Xi Jinping. The backslash in South Korea was immediate and fierce. Families scrambled with, I mean, with less than two months to find new venues for a wedding. That's an impossible task. And the uproar quickly turned political with critics accusing President Lee Jae-myung of being too cozy with Beijing. But then last weekend, suddenly the Shilla Hotel reversed course and announced the weddings could proceed as usual. Now, Korean media reported as if the Chinese backed down and canceled the hotel due to public pressure. Now, anyone who knows CCP and knows Xi Jinping well enough is sure that Xi Jinping would never cave in to public pressure, not to mention foreign public pressure. The only reason that the hotel is now able to host those weddings is that the Chinese side canceled its reservation on their own. And that sparked new speculation. So why would Beijing book the hotel and then cancel it 16 days later? Booking an entire hotel is Xi Jinping's trademark. His paranoia over security often requires blocking every room for his entourage. And Shilla Hotel has over 400 rooms. It's not a small hotel. So that means the decision for Xi to visit Seoul was made a little more than two weeks ago, right? Probably after Xi Jinping accepted an invitation from South Korea's new president, Lee Jae-myung, for a state visit while he was in the country for AIPAC. But the sudden cancellation suggests something has changed. But I do not think it's Xi Jinping's initiative. He may be forced to cancel the state visit to Seoul. So this was definitely initiated by the Chinese. Now, some analysts now believe Xi Jinping may skip Seoul altogether. He's not going to Seoul at all. Instead, he might just stay in the city that hosts AIPAC, or even fly straight back to Beijing immediately after the AIPAC meetings to simplify logistics and security. So one group of people think that the cancellation of the hotel in Seoul was because the state visit is canceled. Xi Jinping is ordered not to go to Seoul for the state visit. And so after the AIPAC meeting in another city, I think, Gwangju, whatever, he will go back to Beijing immediately. There's another group of people who believe that Xi Jinping may not even go to South Korea to attend AIPAC at all. Either way, the hotel cancellation was sudden, and it was not his idea. Now today, South Korea's foreign ministry confirmed that it is still negotiating with Beijing about Xi Jinping's exact schedule. Insiders insist that Xi's participation in AIPAC is basically confirmed, and that the hotel flap will not the trip. However, I think things may be more complex than that. Xi Jinping may still go to AIPAC with no state visit, or he may not go at all. It all depends on what happens at the fourth plenum. Now, in theory, the plenum is a party event that will decide his role in the party and in the military. So it will decide two of Xi Jinping's three titles—party secretary general and chairman of the CMC, of the Central Military Commission. If he's forced to step down from those two positions, he will almost certainly try to hold on to his last title—state president—because he could keep it until next spring at the two sessions. The People's Congress would decide this title because it's a government title. It's not a party title. It's not a military title. So the organization that would decide government functions will be the two sessions, and that will happen next spring. So if Xi Jinping gets to keep the state presidency, even symbolically, that means he will attend AIPAC. He can go to AIPAC as the president of China. So if he still has that title, he will go. If he loses all three titles, he will not go. That would mean that he's completely out, and someone else would represent China in South Korea at AIPAC. I think that's highly unlikely, but who knows? Who knows what will happen from now until October 20th, right? And if that's the case, that Xi Jinping completely steps down, Beijing will not reveal it until after the fourth plenum. So all the plans will go forward as if Xi Jinping is still going to AIPAC. Then at the last minute, after the fourth plenum, Beijing could announce that so-and-so will attend AIPAC in his place, and most likely, I think, Wang Yang. Now, there's another belief that the reason that the North Korean foreign minister was in Beijing for the second time in the month was trying to convince Xi Jinping to attend Kim Jong-un's military parade on October 10th for the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea. Let me just get rid of this picture. And think about it. That's October 10th. That's 10 days before the fourth plenum. That would be a great opportunity for Xi Jinping to flee to North Korea and not return if that's his plan. But if he doesn't plan to flee to North Korea, then going to that country is very, very risky politically. Why? Because there has been a bad precedence. During the 1989 student protest or student movement, at the most critical moment when the CCP was deciding the direction of the country and how to handle the student protests, then Party Secretary Zhao Ziyang visited—guess where?—North Korea for seven days. Actually, I do have a picture. I do have a picture of Zhao Ziyang. Yeah, here we go. And after he returned to China, it was too late. Deng Xiaoping and the hardline already decided to crack down on the students. And Zhao lost his authority while he was gone, while he was in North Korea. And so here's the picture that you see on the screen. He visited the students in Tiananmen Square and said his famous last words, I came too late. So Xi Jinping knows this anecdote very well. So will he go to North Korea 10 days before the 4th Party Plenum, only to find out that things are no longer the same upon his return? It's a big gamble. So I highly doubt that he will go to North Korea for the parade, for Kim Jong-un's parade, and before the Party Plenum. But who knows? Maybe that's part of his negotiation with Kim over his exile plan. So three weeks. That's all that separates us from knowing CCP's next step, from knowing Xi Jinping's future, and possibly the end of his rule. The clock is ticking. And once October begins, that's tomorrow, every day could bring a new twist. First North Korea, then the Party Plenum, then South Korea. So buckle up, it's going to be a stormy ride. All right, that's all I have. Let's see. It's a lot of information. All right, let's see. We have some interesting exchanges going on here. Let me see, people have questions, comments. Paul Keenan. Thank you, Paul. Can't stay. We'll catch up on replay. Amazing work as always. Just know that we appreciate all your hard work. Well, thank you so much. Thank you, Paul. I appreciate that. You can see that a little sticker like that puts a smile on my face. Yes. Thank you. All right. Let's see. Questions, comments? Oh, here's from... Yeah. Chris said, Lei does everything by herself. We have a Paul Huber person. I don't know who you are, but apparently you have a different opinion than a lot of us here. I don't know if you are a Chinese or truly a Westerner. I don't think Paul Huber is your name. I think you're probably somebody else. But here's the thing. If you are a Chinese living inside China, and this is your job, then I think this is your precious opportunity to get to know the truth and really know what's happening inside your own country and around the world. If this is just your job, and you could be an inmate staying in a prison doing this, but your English is pretty good, I must say. So I doubt if you're an inmate being forced to do this. But if you're a Chinese living inside China, I think use the opportunity to really know the truth and know the world. But if you are a Chinese living outside China, then I could say that it's such a shame that you choose to do this. Maybe you're well paid by the CCP. Then my comment is, if you're desperate for money, and this is the only job you could find, I have nothing to say. But why not find something else to do? Because your comments, your behavior here does not change people's opinions about me and does not change who I am. And I'm not upset. And when you say and do here only reflects who you are. And I have a tremendous amount of sympathy for you. So I would say use your time well. Use your intelligence. Use your time well. That's all I can say. And you're not affecting me at all. In fact, it makes people support me even more. So I just want to give you an honest opinion of what I think. So that's all. All right. Let's see. Sir Humphrey. Oh, sir. Thank you, Lei. Enjoying the live stream. Dynamic times in China. Yes, indeed. In the next three weeks. I think Lei will be very busy. Is that right? Yeah, I think I'll be very busy. Okay. I'd better get ready. Chris, you'd better be ready too. All right. Let's see. Petra Mick. As an American who was teenaged when the Tiananmen Square protests occurred, I have been interested in Chinese politics for many years, but there are no truthful sources for news. Thank you, Lei. Well, I'm glad you're here. I'm doing my best trying to provide useful insights. Thank you for being here. All right. Let's see. Comments? Super stickers? Questions? No more? That's all? Oh, Manny Kyla. When CCP collapses, what will happen in North Korea? Will CCP collapse before North Korea? I think CCP will collapse before North Korea. Can North Korea collapse? No. It's the other way around. Yeah. I think when CCP collapses, it will force the two remaining communist states, North Korea and Cuba, to change completely. All right. It's the best thing that could ever happen to our world when that happens, when CCP collapses. Okay. Let's see. All right. Here's a question from Magdalene Lilima. Okay. Sorry to ask, Lei. Any progress on Yu Menglong's death case? Yes. Maybe I could do it on Thursday. I want to do an update. There are developments. The next talk I want to do is a little supernatural. His mentor, who is an older man in Taiwan, who has mentored many artists, many actors, Alan Yu saw him as his father figure. His name is Sun, Mr. Sun. He told his story. He said Yu told him everything about what he thought. Uh-oh. What happened to the internet? It's weird. Maybe Thursday. Okay. I'm back. The internet is awful. I still haven't figured out what's happening. I will do that on Thursday. There's information coming out. There are more people stepping forward to support him at the risk of everything they have. The courage people have shown inside China is tremendous. All right. If you're interested, I'll do that on Thursday. I think for tonight, I just want to talk about all these latest developments because it is important. All right. I think I reached the bottom of all the comments. Okay. We'll end it here because the internet is causing trouble. I want to address all the people, everyone who gave me super stickers. Oh, here's one. Jay Hamza. Do you think he will invade Taiwan or will he lose power first? That's a very good question. Xi Jinping is using the invasion of Taiwan as justification for him to hold onto power. That's a whole program in itself. However, Xi Jinping is using that to stay in power, but Zhang Youxia is also using Xi Jinping's ambition to gain more control. It's a very interesting power struggle, power play within the Chinese military. It's very clever on the part of Zhang Youxia. But it needs some work. I will do that maybe Saturday. I don't know. I'm running out of time. I need to do more shows. Okay. All right. That's all. That's all for tonight. I thank you for joining me. The internet is slowing us down and I will see you in two days. Bye.