October 2025 California Housing Market Update

Oh my God, the housing market in California has changed a lot in the past few years. But there are many misconceptions about what is happening right now. So I will share with you the latest trends from the California Real Estate Network on housing prices, housing storage, housing sales, housing prices, and of course a lot more. I will also share with you what is actually happening based on data, not assumptions and feelings. So let's get started. If you are new here, please subscribe. Share regularly as much as possible the updates of the housing market at the national level and in California as well. And if you would like to know more about the Sacramento market, I have a separate channel on YouTube titled The Goals of Sacramento for Houses. Anyway, thank you very much for joining me in today's video. I appreciate that. Well, let's start again. This is from the California Real Estate Network. They are doing a great job. I would like to say, with the participation of many directions, and what is happening in California at the regional and regional level. I will publish a video at the regional level in about a week. This video will cover the state as a whole. However, every market is different. Isn't that right? We also talk about housing sales. This does not include building new houses. It also excludes housing units for multiple families. So let's talk about this. This is a general overview. I will share some additional details regarding what is happening here. Housing sales in California for August. I know this is October, but it takes them about three to four weeks to publish their data. So I will share the latest directions from them, which were for August. So housing sales are mainly stable compared to last year. And it is very surprising considering the fact that it is at the national level. We had the lowest level of transactions since 1995. And it is possible that we will be at the lowest level in 30 years as soon as we reach the end of the year here. In any case, we have a shortage in housing sales in California. The average sale price we have, and this means that half of the houses in August were sold above this amount, and the other half were sold for less than $899,000. And it is more than double the national average in the United States. So the prices rose by 1.2% on an annual basis. Housing sales are not stable at 3.9 months. I will share some historical directions regarding this, because it is a historical rise, and this rose by about 22% from August of 24 days in the market at 31 days. A big increase, I must say a big increase in the percentage, Well, let's talk about the sales, then we will look at the housing prices, and I will share with you how the prices have changed compared to previous years, starting from 2010. This video that I have prepared for you, I do not know how many times it has been shown monthly for 5 years. A point, in any case, in terms of sales in California, it was reduced by only 2%, but it rose compared to July, where it rose by 0.9%. However, let's go back a little bit, because despite the rise in transactions compared to the previous month, this diagram fully explains the situation. We have seen almost 3 years of very low level of transactions in California, and it is a very common thing in the state as a whole, because we expected to see about 400,000 transactions per month, which has been analyzed by nature, but the level of transactions is much lower than the previous levels, and they have also advanced this. This is the percentage of changes in housing sales according to the price chart. The only levels of prices that have seen a profit and a very small profit in the best cases here are the sales that exceed $ 2 million, where it rose by 3% in a range of $ 300,000 to $ 399,000. It rose by 2%, but all other levels of prices have fallen. In fact, it was the largest drop by 7% in a range of $ 500,000 to $ 749,000. By the way, this differs a lot compared to what happened 3 years ago, where we saw a big increase in real estate sales of millions of dollars. And this, in my opinion, was a kind of 100% distortion of the overall change in the average sale price in California, because we saw a high mixture or a high level of transactions in the upper part of the market and a low level of transactions in the lower part. And now, as you know, transactions for all these prices are almost fixed on an annual basis. Therefore, in other words, we do not see a huge increase in real estate sales of millions of dollars, which may change the overall prices at the state level. Now, there is also a change, and I think this has to do with the decrease in real estate prices. Of course, the average real estate prices fluctuate daily, but they are almost at their lowest level since October of last year. And this, in my opinion, I know that you want to see the decrease in house prices, but when prices drop significantly in general, this can lead to an increase in house sales. Therefore, due to the decrease in prices slightly in July and August, we saw a slight increase, almost 2%. But this is actually the first positive reading compared to the previous 12 months about 6 months ago. Therefore, in other words, the decrease in real estate prices causes an increase in house sales, but almost 2% only. Therefore, I will say that the ability to bear the housing costs is still a big problem, and it is one of the main reasons for the decrease in real estate transactions in California, of course at the state level, or as I say at the state level and at the country level as well. Well, let's talk about prices. I have a lot to share about this matter. It is mentioned here that the average housing price in California rose by 1.7% compared to July, and by 1.2% on an annual basis. But this does not tell us much, does it? So I would like to share with you a special analysis of their data. I have been sharing with you a table of data for years, so I have copied these two columns from their website. Everything else is based on personal analysis. And again, we are only talking about current separate houses, except for apartment apartments, new houses, building new houses, and moving away from multiple-family houses as well. So we are less than a little less than $900,000. It is also true that prices in August declined to their lowest level in five months in July. So in July we reached $884,000. Now we have reached $899,000, with an increase of 1.2% from August of 2024. And it is, by the way, the first increase on an annual basis since April of this year, because May, June, and July were in fact in the negative area. Now we return to the positive area due to the fact that prices have risen since July. Before I share that with you, my friends, despite the fact that prices have risen compared to what they were 12 months ago, the increase of 1.2% to 2% is negligible compared to what we should see at this time of year. On average, there is an increase of 8% on an annual basis based on the shape of the house. So the period from August to August every year since 2010 was an increase of 8%. This year it rose by 1.2%. So despite the rise in prices, it is really negligible compared to what we should see at this time of year. Now, speaking of that, despite the fact that it is negligible in comparison, it was not natural in fact that the water ratio increased compared to July. It rose by 1.7% compared to the average change from July to August every year since 2010, which is an increase of 2%. This year it rose by 1.7%. Well, here's what I did for you too, my friends. I wanted to see how this change was 1.2% to 2% compared to last year. How does that compare to the collapse during the great recession at that time? This, of course, as you know, is due to the decline of the housing market and our economy in general. From August 2007 to August 2008, we saw a huge drop of 40% in one year. Now it has risen by 1.2%. Follow us here shortly, because I will share with you one of the main reasons for the current sharp correction that has not happened compared to 2008. As you know, Speaking of which, I also looked at this, looking at the water ratio to change in housing prices since before the crisis in August 2019, which rose by an amazing 46%. Well, back to this chart, let's take a look at the sale price to the list price, which was 98.3%. This means that in August, in the middle, houses that were actually sold at a price of less than 1.7% of the required seller price were sold. This is a slight decrease from last month and a slight decrease from last year. And this ratio, by the way, has been the lowest for about two years. Therefore, buyers get some influence from sellers. At the moment, this also indicates that. Well, this is the share of houses that were sold at a higher price than the seller price, and it was actually reduced to its lowest level in 30 months. And that was at 29%. This means that in August, about a third of all houses that were sold at a higher price than the seller price were sold. And contrary to that, this means that two thirds sold at a lower price than the seller price, which leads to the buyer market. I would also like to claim that some markets in California may actually be a supporter of the buyer market. And a good shot, or a good comparison here, is when the seller market was very strong at that time, in April 2022, where about three out of four houses were sold at a higher price than the seller price. And now, basically, it has become a reflection of that sale at a lower price than the seller price. We are also less than last year at this time, also in the 24th of August. We are at 40%. One thing I want to add here is that it is at 29%. This goes to a great extent with what we saw in August 2019, where this ratio was also about 30%. Therefore, of course, the market has slowed down compared to many years ago, but it is more consistent with what we saw in 2019. Let us also discuss the stored levels based on the monthly offer. And here is one clear picture, which I do not really know, that explains the extent of the differences in houses this year and in previous years, compared to the great decline when we saw this decline in house prices by 40%. Therefore, at that time, the monthly offer was very close to or very close to 17 months. It is completely crazy, given the fact that we are now at 3.9 months, as you can see here. Since the late 2021, we have seen a kind of slow progress towards the top. Well, we are actually higher than the levels before the crisis, but we do not rise as much as the rise that happened during the great decline. Let's take a look at how to compare all this to the past years, Therefore, in August of this year, the monthly offer starts at 3.9 months. In fact, look back over the past years at 3.9 months. This is the highest level of August since August 2014. At that time, we had an offer for 4.0 months. Also, compared to 2019, this time we had an offer for 3.2 months. Also, the average August since August 2010 is an offer for 3.3 months. Therefore, the monthly offer is now higher compared to a period before the crisis, but also compared to the long-term averages. However, it deviates from the comparison with January 2008, which was a peak. The offer for 16.6 months. On the other hand, it deviates from the comparison with the lowest level at all, which was recorded in December 2021, when the monthly offer was 1.2 months only. The biggest thing I got rid of about this matter is that part of the reason for this stay is very high, which goes back to the fact that the sales of homes at very low levels. Therefore, sales are very low from sellers at very low interest rates. Those who decided not to sell their homes for sale or if they do not get the appropriate price, they simply cancel the offer. This also goes back to the fact that sales are low because sellers do not sell their homes, but they are also low because of the restrictions on the ability to bear the cost of housing for buyers of homes at the current time. And in reality, the form of the monthly offer is an active list, then we divide it by the average number of homes offered for sale. Therefore, we have a low level of transactions or sales of homes that actually increase the monthly offer. Part of the reason is that we see the reason for the increase in our levels at the current time. So, going back to the list, looking at the active lists, the active lists have decreased for the first time since December 2012. Well, for me, this is a kind of, I don't know, a burger, nothing, because the storage usually reaches its peak in the last months of summer. It tends to peak in July, August and September, and here we are in August. And of course, the months that offer active lists or storage levels decrease in reality in a completely natural way, and it is a seasonal change that we see every year. So, as mentioned here, the storage usually reaches its peak in the last months of summer. The most important title, in my opinion, is that storage is higher at this time of year compared to many years ago. As you can see here, since 2020, storage has been very, very low now. We are at high levels. However, it is still less than the same time frame in 2018 and 2019. They don't give us actual numbers here, but just an estimate of this, August 18, August 2019, about 55,000 to 60,000 houses for sale, and now we have less than 50,000. So, although we are less than before, it is wonderful to see that storage is higher compared to many years ago, of course, which gives buyers more options. And of course, you can get a house, you can buy a house at a lower price than the seller, and ask for closures, and your real estate agent's money, and so on. A very different market compared to 2011, where you had to write offers that exceeded the required price, and get off the streets, and so on. A market that is very difficult to estimate. Well, here's something I hope you're still watching today's video. It indicates that the market is not collapsing, but that the storage or increase rate is decreasing. In fact, it is slowing down, and this trend has been prevalent for at least four months. We now have an increase of 23.5% in the number of houses for sale in California compared to August 2024. However, as I mentioned, this increase is the least annual increase since March 2024, which is almost the same month. Therefore, despite the increase in storage by more than 20% currently, this represents a major improvement or a slowdown in earnings that exceeded 40% that we saw at the beginning of the year. I think the reason for the loss of these earnings is that many house sellers are selling their houses for sale. If they do not get the price they are looking for, they cancel their offer for sale. So, we see a major increase in the list of properties for sale, which leads to a decrease in storage levels, or, on the contrary, to a decline in earnings. Well, before we talk about the percentage of the decrease in prices, and how it compares to the level of the state as a whole, let's take a look at the speed or slowdown of house sales. These are the days for sale, that is, 31 days. The time frame in which the owner of the house offers his house for sale is now for sale. They accept the offer in about 31 days, compared to 22 days a year ago. Therefore, the sale of a 9-day house in the Middle East in August this year was delayed compared to last year. As for the percentage of the decrease in prices, it is about 42% now. Therefore, the price of the house has decreased by about 4 out of every 10 houses offered for sale. This is almost the same level as before the crisis. It is expected that we will see a decrease of 35% to 40%. Well, I would like to say that we are now a little higher than the historical trends in August. Speaking of which, here is a look at my website research.com, which first looks at the percentage of properties whose prices have decreased at the national level, then we will talk about California. At the national level, the percentage reached about 42%, which is slightly higher than last year, and higher than the two previous years, and more equivalent to what we saw in 2022. As for California, look at this big increase. In California, the percentage reached about 36%, which is slightly higher than last year, and slightly higher than the two previous years, but it is much lower than the equivalent it reached in 2022. The percentage at that time was 42%, and now it has reached 36%. Therefore, the decrease in share prices in California is slightly better than the national average as well. However, if you are looking for a recommendation for a real estate agent in California, please visit the e-site realestatetimfinder.com. Of course, if you would like to know more about the real estate market in Sacramento and the neighborhoods there, please visit my second channel on YouTube, which is Home Sacramento Goals. However, thank you for watching the video today. We hope you like it and subscribe. See you in the next video. Thank you very much.