Ocean City New Jersey (OCNJ) Real Estate Market Update - Mid-October 2025

The month of October is almost at an end and I want to take you through everything that happened so far this month because we have seen, as expected, what I will call the peak of the fall market and we are starting to trend back down. Let's get to it. Rates, they have come down a little bit more and I've seen a lot of people out there speculating on what's to come. Whether or not we're going to stay in the sixes for the next few years, whether or not things are going to slowly tick back downwards, time will tell. But for now, we are approaching a 5% jumbo adjustable rate mortgage, which is crazy considering those were almost at 7% not that long ago. So things have gotten way better. Your conventional 30-year loans are likely going to be in the 6% to 6.5% range, depending on your product. It's an investment property, second home, et cetera. Inventory, though, we have seen it come up and come back down. So we are basically where we were at the start of the month. We're off by one. And what's a little bit crazy, inventory is exactly where it was three and a half months ago on August 1st. That is not exactly normal. Last year during that same time period, it was almost a 20% increase during that timeframe. And we'll get into what changed or what didn't here in a second. But days on market starting to trend down a little bit, still roughly flat though. So we're going to keep saying it's flat until it's large enough to consider otherwise. Now our new listings, we have seen those start to taper off here in the second half of the month, along with homes going under contract. So again, there is a connection between the two. The more new listings that are coming, the more homes are likely to go under contract. We'll get into the speed here in a little bit too, but things are moving still pretty quickly, but they have slowed down all things considered compared to those first few weeks. And I called it on the last video, or maybe it was a text to a friend, but I think our last storm, the nor'easter that we had here, I said, that's the end. There's going to be people seeing that, associating that with Ocean City and the weather that we're having, even though that was just kind of a freak thing. It does happen almost annually, but not to that degree. But the weather's actually been pretty nice, but that's what people are going to remember. So they're not coming down as much. Showings are down across the border. Pending sales though, we are going to take a step back from last month, which is typical. If you look back the last few years, that's what has happened going from September to October. So that's pretty normal. Closed sales are going to still be very, very strong here as a lot of the homes that have gone under contract in the last 45 days do come to a close. Single family world has been pretty stagnant, all things considered. Months of inventory is still very low because we haven't seen a ton of new listings coming. Those prices are going to start going back up. As I mentioned last time, we have kind of hit that trough and we're going to get back towards that $2 million mark, I think, by the end of next year as our median sale price. Days on market for those, again, trending downwards, but not strongly enough for me to say it is consistently going down. Still roughly flat. Now, convos. Things if you look back almost through the entire year, it's a downward trend for months of inventory compared to what we just saw with single family, basically the same. So across the board, things are moving quicker. And again, my speed metric here in a couple seconds, we'll get to that. But I've been on my soapbox about this for the last couple months. Things are picking up. We don't necessarily have the luxury that we have in years past, especially last year, things were a little bit slower. But here we are in deal season. We have entered it. We are starting to see price reductions. We are starting to see some motivation, which I'm happy to share with you. Some have not dropped the price yet. Some are not going to drop the price. But I have heard through the grapevine, through my network of where some wiggle room may be. So feel free to reach out if you're curious. But that median sale price is still trending upwards consistently. And days on market, likewise, still coming down. I feel like a broken record these days, but it's more of the same now speed. We have now seen four months in a row, about 1.6 to 1.7 new listings needed to get one home under contract and going all the way back to 2019. That's essentially where we were. So dare I say it appears we are heading back to what used to be a normal market in terms of speed. Do not read that as saying, hey, the continued appreciation is normal, but I'm seeing more and more signs that these prices are here to stay. The situation that we're in is likely to continue. I have been telling clients that, again, if you are looking for a deal to feel somewhat better about a decision to buy down here, these next two months are it. So make sure that you reach out if you haven't already to talk through and game plan in advance, because we don't normally get more than one or two shots. And if we are asleep at the wheel, we're not prepared. But it is incumbent upon you as a buyer to get educated. I'm here to help, whether that's the YouTube channel that you may be watching this on, whether that's reaching out and talking it through directly. But we need to get a game plan. You need to get a game plan, I should say, sooner than later, because if you miss that one opportunity, it may be another year or two until we see another one. And I can almost guarantee that will be at a higher price point, too. So, again, this speed is falling off a cliff in both contexts here. If we look on a broader scale, we are about back to where we were in 2019. That was a little closer to 1.5. So we are not there yet, but we're headed that way. And things have really, of course, corrected after we saw things balloon in 2022 and really slow down for the last couple of years. We're picking back up again. So mortgage rates, what are they going to do? Nobody really knows. I've been saying for a while now we are going to stay around this six, six and a half range for a conventional 30-year loan. Jumbo and potentially adjustable rates are going to be better there. And again, a low to mid fives, which is great. I don't expect that to change over the next six plus months. Once again, for next month's video, I'm going to dig in a little bit more on economic projections for 2025. So I can start my forecast a little bit early here for what we should see coming in 2026, but not there yet. Inventory, again, coming back down is normal this peak. And then returning to normalcy, we should say the downward trend is there. And I would expect to see that slowly trickling down through the end of the year and into January before that spring market starts to build up steam. People wake back up in the winter slumber. They're excited to come to the beach again. And prices, I've said this enough, they continue to rise. They continue to be very strong. Now, please don't read that as there's no opportunities. You're going to have to pay a premium to secure a property. Over the past 30 days, I've secured several clients for really great prices with some substantial percentages off of the asking price. That's my job. That's what I'm here for. So I know scrolling Zillow, scrolling at realtor.com, whatever your choice is can be cathartic, but it can be infuriating too. And I don't want you to see a home that you like. You see the price and you laugh and think, hey, you know what? No way. It's more than I want to spend. And then you see what it sells for three, four months later. You say, well, I would have paid that. So this needs to be an active process. Gone are the days where this is a passive come down when you feel like it, and maybe think about it for a few weeks before you decide what you're going to do. I can't stress this enough. Getting educated up front, coming up with a strategy and a game plan up front with an agent of your choosing, whether it's myself or somebody else, so that you are ready. Because yet this opportunity knocks once, maybe twice, and then it goes away. So that is it for today. Hopefully I kept it short and sweet for you. But if you have any questions, you can reach out any of the ways that you see here. I'm always happy to help chat and help you however I can. So thanks for hanging out with me as always. I'll see you next time.