Peter Schiff: Gold, Silver Correction Over? Next Price Triggers, Where to Focus

I'm Charlotte McLeod with InvestingNews.com and here today with me is Peter Schiff. He's Chief Economist and Global Strategist at Euro-Pacific Asset Management and founder of Schiff Gold. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. Oh, my pleasure. Well, we're here at the New Orleans Investment Conference. So happy you're able to take the time. And because this is such a gold-focused event, I thought that's where we could begin. I think there's a lot of questions about what's going to be next for Goldwood. We've seen the prices get to historic highs. We're in a little bit of a pullback right now. And I thought maybe you could just start by situating with us in terms of where you think we are in the cycle right now. Well, even characterizing it as a pullback, I mean, we're 3,950 as we're talking. We've only pulled back from a level that we reached for a day. We had a quick move up. But the fact that we're just below 4,000 doesn't really feel like it's a pullback. It's only a pullback in relation to the fact that we almost hit 4,400, which was crazy in that it only took us maybe a week to get there from hitting 4,000. So if you throw that week or two out and just look at where we are, we've gone up a lot on the year. And I think sentiment, it's interesting how such a sharp decline can turn the sentiment to get everybody thinking that this is now potentially a bear market already in gold and that there's a lot of downside risk. I think that's kind of what the market was trying to do in shaking out some of the newer entrants that may not really have the conviction or maybe came in with some leverage and have been flushed out of the market. But we've created a lot more, I guess, nervousness so that we can climb that wall of worry. And so as far as I'm concerned, if this is a correction, it's probably already over. I don't think there's that much downside in the price of gold from here. And the same thing with silver. I mean, silver didn't hold above 50, but it did take out 50, which is something it never did really in 1980 or 2011. We got almost to 55. And now we've had a pullback, but we're holding 4850, which if you told people even a few months ago, silver would be a 4850, they wouldn't be, oh my God, it's pulling back. They'd be very happy that silver was at this price. And especially the gold miners. I mean, gold pulling back to 3900 is great for all these gold mining companies. They're making a ton of money at $3,900 gold. They're making a lot of money at $2,900 gold. And that never really got factored into the price. Yeah, I think you hit on a really good point there in terms of the psychology of people, how quickly they change what they think of a particular price. You're right. People would have been happy with those levels even a month ago or so. So if anything further, you can stay on that note, because I think it's quite interesting. I just think we're early in a broader bull market. I think that investors, mainstream Wall Street investors, both institutional and retail are just finally, finally noticing gold and deciding that they should make it a part of their portfolio. And this is after gold is up 11, 12x this century. The Dow is down close to 70% price in gold since peaking in 1999. So gold has outperformed the markets, yet investors haven't even noticed that really until just recently. And I don't think that the fact that they've now decided that gold should be included in a portfolio, whereas before it had no place in a portfolio. I don't think that is going to change because, oh my God, now gold's 3,900 and not 4,300. I think you're going to start to see more accumulation of gold from investors who never bought any. And I think the central banks that have been the drivers for the past couple of years, I think they're actually going to pick up the pace of their gold buying. I think more central banks that weren't buying gold are now going to start buying as well. So I think there's a lot of new demand coming from gold and I don't see a lot of new supply. I mean, there's some, but not nearly enough. Right. And one of the conversations I've been having as we're at this event is, so we are seeing this demand come in from people who are new to the gold market and people who come to this event, people who are in they're usually used to being the contrarian. So if they see the mainstream coming in, maybe they feel a little bit uncomfortable. So anything you'd say to those people? Well, I think it's still contrarian in that now that the mainstream is dipping its toe in the water, it's still a small percentage of mainstream investors. So I think we've got a ways to go before it's kind of a crowded trade. If you want to see, you know, something that seems crowded or bubblicious, look at what happened in crypto. Look at the enthusiasm. You know, this is, I think, the oldest gold conference, you know, it's been going on for, what is it, 50 years, you know, the Norlis conference. And there's, you know, there's more people here than last year, I think. But it's, there's not a thousand attendees. It's less, I forget, 600, 700. I was at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas over the summer. There were 35,000, 40,000 people who paid to attend. You know, so we're nowhere near there. You know, we don't have that kind of level of interest or enthusiasm. And when I was at that conference, nobody was worried about the Bitcoin price going down. I mean, everybody was 100% convinced it was going to a million or higher. But here, you know, you get a lot of people at the gold conference. Well, you know, they're nervous that we could get a pullback. And they're not like crazy enthusiastic that we're going to be at 10,000, 20,000, our goal next year. So, you know, I think it's still early. You know, the people in Bitcoin, they're convinced that they're early. And I always try to point out, well, you have 35,000 people at a conference. It's not early. You know, I've been going to investment conferences. That's the biggest one I've ever been to. And so that shows you that, you know, a lot of people are already involved. You know, you're not, you're not getting on the ground floor when the conference is that big. Yeah. Yeah. That's a funny, different mindset there. There is certainly, I think among gold investors that always that nervousness that this is going to be the end. And speaking of, I know you've said this isn't really that big of a pullback, but people are looking at it that way. And I think they wonder, all right, what's going to spark the next move higher for gold and silver prices? So what would you pull out for that? Yeah, well, we just got a rate cut by the Fed and that didn't seem to be the trigger. I think we're going to get another rate cut, despite the fact that Powell kind of said it wasn't a lock, you know, the markets kind of priced it in and he kind of pushed back against that. But at the end of the day, I think there's going to be another cut because I think the economic data is going to continue to disappoint. Now we're not getting as much data as normal because of the government shutdown, but it's possible that they end that government shutdown and we get a deluge of bad economic data that could be a catalyst for another move up, you know, the price of gold as people start to, you know, factor that in. And the Fed at its last FOMC meeting announced that QT is officially ending in December. So I think another big catalyst will be the launch of the next round of quantitative easing, which I believe is coming. I thought it would have actually happened already. So I'm kind of surprised they were able to make it through the entire year without doing it. But I think 2026 will be the year that they crank up the presses again, especially if they continue to see weakness in the long run of the bond market. And then, of course, you do have, you know, some court decisions, you know, on the tariffs, on the firing of Lisa Cook. I think that could have implications for the dollar and for gold. So do you think quantitative easing starts under Powell or do we wait until his term is over? We've got this new Fed chair in that's probably going to be more Trump aligned. How are you seeing it? Yeah, you know, it's hard to say. I forget how, when does Powell leave midway through the year, May? I mean, I guess it's about 50-50 that, you know, that they can hold off on QE. It kind of depends on what happens. But I think if you start to see a big move down on the stock market or something that might scare the administration, there'll be a lot more pressure. And we'll see. I mean, today, you know, we're getting a decent decline in stocks. I know Bitcoin broke below 100,000 for the first time in about four months. And, you know, that could be a bit of a leading indicator that, you know, people are starting to take risk off. And it may not just be crypto. It may be a broader based risk off trade, which also could see some money flowing back into gold as a safe haven investment. And I think as the air comes out of the Bitcoin bubble and people begin to question the digital gold narrative, which they should, because it's just a meme, to the extent that people wake up to the reality that Bitcoin isn't digital gold, well, then maybe they'll buy real gold instead. And so there could be a source of some extra gold buying from people who either get out of Bitcoin or instead of buying Bitcoin decide to buy the real gold, right, instead of some fake version of it. Right. And I think you're highlighting we've heard at this conference, certainly a lot of warning signs about what's going on in the U.S. economy. And you're mentioning we might get that bad deluge of economic data once this government shutdown is over. When you look at the U.S. economy, how bad are you thinking it could get? What's your vision there? Well, I mean, I think things are pretty, pretty, pretty bad. I mean, if you look at the most recent polls on Trump's approval, his approval on the economy is the lowest it's been of either of his presidencies. He only has a 30 percent approval rating. So that's not even like all the Republicans. And over 60 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, right, just the economy. That's supposed to be his strong suit. And, you know, Trump is going around, you know, touting how we have the strongest economy in the history of the country. Right. We have the hottest economy in the whole world. And he contrasts that to the Biden economy, which, you know, we had last year. And he said that was the worst economy in the history of America. So apparently in less than a year, we've gone from the worst economy in the history of America to the greatest economy in the history of America. Yet the voters don't approve of his handling of the economy. So somebody is not, you know, telling the truth. Either the public loves the economy, but they're afraid to be honest with the polls or, you know, or. Yeah, I mean, that's one area where I trust the public. I don't trust their opinion on a lot of things, but I trust them to know how they're doing themselves, because when they're asked about the economy, they're not talking about the overall unemployment rate or inflate. They're talking about their own individual circumstances. Right. And so they're answering that question based on what they're experiencing in their own lives. Are they you know, are things getting better for them financially? Are things getting worse? So people know, you know, their own circumstances. And so if they're telling the pollsters, I don't approve of Trump's handling of the economy, it's because they're worse off than they were before he was elected. And so therefore, we can't have this economic boom that the president is claiming credit for, because if things were as good as he says, it would be reflected in the opinions of those people, unless the polls are completely skewed and they're not random and they've been rigged. But, you know, I think it's more likely that Trump is just talking, right, that he's just promoting his presidency the way he used to promote his stakes. You know, they're the greatest. You know, that's that's he's a salesman. And so he exaggerates, I think, you know, and that's that's a nice word for it. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I agree. I think people are feeling that way. And people are coming to conferences like this. They're starting to feel, OK, how can I be prepared for this? So I'm wondering what you can say on that. Of course, we can talk about gold and silver, but we're in this pullback right now. I think people are wondering, what should I do? How do I get ready for this and protect myself? Yeah. Well, I mean, I think the people at this conference are among the few people that are protecting themselves. I mean, they are at a gold conference. Right. So everybody at this conference, I'm sure, has some gold, has some silver. They own some mining stocks. So the people here are not the ones that need protection. It's the people who didn't come here, you know, that have no protection. Now, some of them may think they have protection because they bought Bitcoin. But Bitcoin, they're going to find out is probably riskier than all the stuff they were worried about. You know, they're going to end up losing more money in Bitcoin than if they would have just stayed in the S&P 500. But I think most people, especially retirees or near retirees, need to understand the risk of inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. And they need to do something about it. You know, they should be buying gold and silver. You know, I got shift gold. Right. They could buy from me. They could buy someplace else. But people have to own physical gold and silver. And they should have an investment portfolio that reflects the reality of what's going to happen to the dollar over time and the value of U.S. assets. And people need to invest globally. I mean, we've been investing for clients in international dividend paying stocks. You look at our core dividend payer strategy year to date, it's up about 50 percent, which is a phenomenal return. This is probably the best year we've had in the 11 or 12 years that I've run the strategy. It's about triple the S&P. You know, most years, the S&P has outperformed the strategy. But now the strategy is destroying S&P. And I think this is the beginning of a major rotation out of U.S. stocks back into global stocks. So I don't think what happened with our strategy in 2025 is going to be a one off year. I think it's the beginning of a trend that's going to last for many, many years. And so people should recognize this change and start moving money out of the U.S. stock market and investing in the markets that we're investing in, in our global strategies, because the valuations are much better, the dividend yields are much higher, and you get the tailwind of a weakening dollar, which I think is going to strengthen over time. And that's going to be one of the main reasons that foreigners are going to start pulling out of our markets, because they're going to have a headwind. You know, they're going to be losing on the foreign exchange, and that's going to be subtracting from the returns on U.S. assets. So they're going to want to divest. And it's been foreign buyers at the margin that have really helped power the U.S. market for the past 10 years. And now they're going to be selling instead of buying. Well, and I know you just were talking about internationalization. I have to ask you, though, about the gold stocks, the gold stock opportunities. And we're at a conference with all the companies in the next room there. What opportunity do you see there? Would you look at gold stocks and which ones do you think have the best opportunity right now? Well, I mean, as far as which individual ones, you know, I don't know for sure. But look, I think that gold stocks, one of the big problems they've had has been a lack of conviction in the investment community on the future price of gold. People have been very bearish on gold. And so it's been difficult for gold companies to raise capital. And therefore they've had to agree to not such great terms to raise money. But I think as the general investment community has a more benign outlook on the price of gold and it doesn't even have to be that gold prices are going to keep going up just that they're not going to collapse. Right. If we get, you know, the mainstream to concede that gold is going to be above three thousand, right, that it's not going back down to two thousand or one thousand, that it's going to be at least three thousand gold stocks. Gold companies can make a ton of money at three thousand dollar gold. Forget about four thousand where we are now. Right. So if people just believe we're going to stay at three thousand or higher, I think that's going to open up a lot of capital into the sector to help them develop their projects. Meanwhile, the projects that are already in production, they're making a ton of money right now, especially look at oil prices at around sixty dollars a barrel relative to the price of gold. This is the cheapest oil has ever been. I mean, if you can't count like one month or two months during covid when oil went negative. But if you throw out that operation, oil is dirt cheap for mining companies. And even though the dollar has come down this year, it's still relatively high. Normally, when gold is rising, you see the dollar falling. And so that also pressures their their wages that are in these other currencies. But their wages, their wage costs are not going up. Their energy costs are going down and the gold price is going through the roof. So this is a great time for these stocks, because for so many years, even though the price of gold was rising, the cost of mining, it was rising faster. So they weren't really capturing any gain. But now you've had such a big move in a short period of time. Gold has caught up a bit with those costs. And so now there's a really good margin of safety there. So I think the existing companies are making a lot of money. And I think what's going to happen, a lot of these smaller companies is these big companies that are now gushing cash that have underinvested in exploration and development over the last decade. Now they have all this money. Rather than gambling it on exploration projects, I think they're going to go shopping and start buying up some of the exhibitors that are at this conference. So I think you're going to see a lot of M&A in the space. And that's going to be good for all these companies, because all of a sudden somebody comes in and just pays double the market price to buy the stock. And they still look at it as a good deal. So I think it's a great time, I think, to be in the industry. And the fact that there's not even more excitement and more enthusiasm here shows you how early this is. That anyone says, oh, we're at a top, right? This is not what a top looks like. Again, I just came from that Bitcoin conference. That's what a top looks like. When there's 35,000 people at this conference. We're not going to get a new hotel. Maybe. All right. Well, I need to send you back out onto the show floor. But before I do, I've got a fun question. I think it's fun that I'm trying to ask everyone. Looking at 2026, what would be your choice for the top performing asset of the year? Of 2020? 2026, yeah. Well, I think it could be the precious metals again. So maybe silver. You know, I mean, you know, it could be silver. But and I think the mining stocks are going to have another really good year. You know, I think, you know, we're flushing some people out, you know, towards the end of this year. But I think it's going to be another really good year for the mining stocks. So. Very good. Very good. Any final thoughts you'd leave investors with? But one more is emerging markets. Because emerging markets, we have emerging market fund and it's lagged or other equity funds. I think that the emerging markets are really going to start to take off. I think you're going to start to see some rotation out of developed into emerging markets. If it doesn't start in 2026, it'll start in 2027. But I think there's a good chance it starts next year, especially if we get a big break in the dollar, maybe in the at the end of this year, the dollar has been rising a bit recently. In fact, the dollar index is now back above 100. So that's again, that's a headwind a bit. But if we do get a break in the dollar, which I think is coming, that's going to be a huge catalyst for a big move up in the emerging markets. Okay, well, I think that's a nice note to wrap up on. Thank you so much for coming on to talk. This is great. My pleasure. Amazing. Once again, I'm Charlotte McLeod with investing news.com. And this is Peter Schiff. Oh, that was the end. That's okay.