China’s Japan meltdown: The threat, the silence — and the backfire

The world is watching the sudden spike in China Japan tensions all triggered by one astonishing message. Well, astonishing I think astonishing is really putting it too nicely. This man uh who is the council general in Osaka. He wrote this about Japan's newly elected prime minister TSI Takai. That filthy neck that barged in on its own. we have no choice but to cut it off without a moment's hesitation. Uh, are you ready? End quote. All right. Well, that single comment set off a full-blown diplomatic firestorm. And so, what exactly is happening? Is Beijing really prepared to push this far even to the point of cutting ties with Japan? If you go by the Chinese state media, that look, it looks like it. Well, everything began when uh Sununi Takai said this um in [clears throat] Japan's parliament. She said, "If Taiwan is in trouble, Japan is in trouble." And shortly afterward, uh, Shuen, the Chinese council general in Osaka, posted that now infamous message about beheading the Japanese PM, and that post lit the internet. Japan reacted with fury. So, there were calls to expel the the council and they are growing louder every day. Now, Beijing, instead of backing down, went into full counter attack mode, escalating its criticism of the Japanese PM and launching a political assault on her. Um, then Beijing took it up in another level. Thursday night, I believe it's Thursday night, China's vice foreign minister, Suni Dong, summoned um Japan's ambassador to to Beijing saying that he was doing so by instruction or in Chinese is funu uh which is a diplomatic term meaning the order came directly from the top. So, Sunungi Dong accused um Takayi of making wrong statements about China and lodged a stern protest and Beijing said her comments on Taiwan were provocative, demanded Japan uh to correct its mistakes and withdraw the remarks. China's official statement even used the phrase deliver quote deliver a head-on blow as a response. Normally, Japan is restrained in these situations, but not this time. So Japan fired back immediately. Its vice foreign minister summoned China's ambassador Wuang Ho and launched a counterprotest demanding China take proper action regarding the council general's beheading post. Then Japan's foreign minister, Mr. Toshi Mitsu, spoke at a press conference. So he said um the the Japan's foreign minister said Japan had vi had had violated no international law. China's accusation did not match the facts and Japan had no reason none to retract anything. And he said this he said we are not withdrawing our remarks. And on the question of declaring uh Shuen the council general persona Nangrata uh the Japanese foreign minister reminded reporters that Japan has ex expelled diplomats four times before but did not say whether Shuang will be the next. That's as close as diplomacy gets to a raised eyebrow. Then today, China's ambassador Wu Jang Ha summoned the vice foreign minister of Japan right back. So the Chinese ambassador saying that he was acting again by instruction to launch yet another protest and warned Japan that if it didn't withdraw its remarks and then all consequences will be Japan's responsibility. And Wu repeated Beijing's new favorite line, which is that if Japan intervenes in Taiwan, China will deliver a head-on blow. So people notice how the CCP kept using like during this back and forth protest, China insisted on using the term by instruction. So people are trying to figure out what it means. Well, it could possibly mean three things. First, it means that this is not a not the diplomat acting on his own. This comes from the very high up, possibly the top leader. Second, this is there's no room for negotiation. It's a diplomatic yellow card. And third, it uh it it warns that concrete retaliation like cancelling events or imposing diplomatic counter measures could follow. I personally think that by repeatedly re integrating or or emphasizing this by instruction phrase, Beijing is trying to say that this order came from Xiinping and not anyone else. Um, whoever is behind this this entire drama has the intention to blame this on Xi Jinping amid the ongoing political infighting. Now, meanwhile, China's propaganda machine went into overdrive. People's daily, Shinuad, and others started attacking Takai. Commentators like Hui Jing, the former chief editor of Global Times, jumped in. And even China's defense ministry threatened Japan saying Japan will be bloodied and broken. Um and and very interestingly, China's foreign ministry also issued a a dramatic notice claiming that public security in Japan has deteriorated and that Chinese citizens should avoid traveling to Japan temporarily. The irony, Japanese nizens celebrated the announcement. comments flooded their social media saying do not avoid Japan temporarily. Avoid it permanently. Please never come again. Uh this is because years of poor behavior by some Chinese tourists, breaking rules, disturbing public spaces, damaging properties has left Japanese society exhausted. So if Beijing wants to stop its own tourists from coming, Japan is more than happy. So the war of words hit a new low when a CCTV linked social media account called Tanten published a rant calling Takai the Japanese prime minister brainless, full of crap and worse. When top tier state media uh their outlets begin using gutter language, it usually means one thing. Even they don't take their own messaging seriously. It's all political theater. And here's the very absurd part. People's discover that the journalist behind the account that that social media account um had just returned from a shopping trip to Japan. As soon as he returned uh he logged on to curse Japan and the hypocrisy speaks for itself. Okay, now let's get serious. Here's the part that most people missed and it's extremely important. The man who started all has gone silent since November the 10th. Five full days he hasn't posted a single thing. No posts, no reposts, nothing. Before that, he was posting dozens of items a day and suddenly silence. What does that tell us? His silence um is almost certainly the result of internal discipline. Beijing understood Japan's reaction was serious because Japan has started taking real actions, not just issuing statements. Today, Takai's Liberal Democratic Party and their foreign affairs committee and their foreign affairs research group issued an internal directive. As a result of Shuin's comment, all LDP members are instructed to boycott events hosted by the Chinese consulate in Osaka. And there there's also context. The consulate was planning a China Japan friendship event in Hiroshima on the 21st. And now the LDPs is saying no one in our party is allowed to attend. And that's concrete a concrete blow, not just talk. And there are more nightmares from Beijing. For Beijing, sorry. Japanese media just released a new poll on Takai's um position regarding military intervention if Taiwan is attacked. 83% of Japanese citizens now support Japan intervening militarily if Taiwan is invaded. That's 83%. 3 months ago, that number was 70%. That already high, but now it jumped another 13 points. And of the remaining uh 17% only 9% oppose eight are undecided. So this tell us one thing. China has slammed into a wall with support above 80%. Um Takai has zero incentive to soften her stance. She will only grow stronger. Right? So the unavoidable question is, is China truly ready to break with Japan? Decouple, cut diplomatic ties, start a diplomatic or economic war. Well, before answering that, we need to understand something fundamental. China and Japan are arguing or fighting over two completely different things. Japan is is focused entirely on diplomatic norms. A council general threatening to behead a sitting prime minister is beyond unaccept unacceptable. A diplomat cannot issue violent threats online. Period. Beijing, however, is laser focused on Japan's Taiwan policy and deliberately avoiding the council general's comment because they cannot defend him. So that's why Beijing pretends that it was a personal comment, then immediately put the council on ice. So why is Beijing attacking Takai so aggressively? I think Beijing needs to distract from internal crisis. The CCP is drowning in political infighting and economic collapse. A foreign enemy is the perfect distraction. It's sending a message saying that everyone blame Japan. That's the goal. That's also why Beijing issued um splashy wanted notices for anti-CCCP Taiwanese figures like um the famous lawmaker Shen Buang, right? And also so social media influencers, the two of them Mang Ming Nan and Bajung. But if you really think about it, these have zero real impact in geopolitics or diplomacy. They're just political theater. What's funny is CCP's own state media even inadvertently admitted the strategy. So uh wrote this. It says stirring up the Taiwan issue again is aimed at consolidating domestic political standing and paving the way for increased military spending. They thought they were attacking the Japanese PM, but they ended up describing their own motives because that's exactly what they're doing. So based on this, I believe the Chinese are all rhetorics and noise. They're not going to um take real actions, at least not at this stage. Why? Because something else happened. President Trump just approved his first Taiwan arms sale of his second term, uh, which is about three $330 million for F-16 and C130 parts. The timing of the sale couldn't be more insulting to Beijing right in the middle of this storm when Japan and Taiwan need a boost. So now Beijing is stuck yelling at both Japan and the United States at the same time, mostly at Japan, uh, repeating its same old lines. But the more Beijing lashes out, the more it helps its opponents. Japan gets more reasons to revise its constitution. Japan gets more momentum to upgrade its military. The US gets more space to support Taiwan. And Taiwan gets stronger defenses. So Beijing is essentially handing them leverage on the silver platter. I really think that when the party elders decided to keep Xiinping in the top post for the time being th this is the inevitable outcome u because they can't really control him. Uh we'll continue to to witness CCP's foreign policy oscillating between wolf warriors and smiling pandas in the next couple of months as result of the fighting from the two sides. It's