Doomsday for Russian submarines in Black Sea: After Varshavyanka, Paltus submarines are targeted

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As reported, Security Service of Ukraine conducted another unique special operation. For the first time, Sub Sea Baby underwater drones blew up the Russian 636.3-class submarine Varshavyanka, which carries Kalibr missiles. The SBU reported that the explosion critically damaged the submarine and effectively disabled it. A video of the strike was released as confirmation.

This not only sets a historical precedent but also marks another step in weakening Russia's capabilities in the Black Sea, where two Kalibr-equipped submarines currently remain. Analysts of the military portal Defense Express note that an underwater drone struck and effectively disabled the Project 636.3 Varshavyanka submarine in Novorossiysk Bay. This is the first confirmed case of a successful attack by an underwater drone on a submarine in world history—and with immediate, critical results.

Analysts note that the released video clearly captured an explosion near the submerged stern of the submarine. This likely indicates damage to the propellers, steering mechanisms, and other key components without which the submarine would be rendered combat-ready.

"Due to this explosion, the submarine's propellers, shaft, steering mechanisms, and a number of other components and assemblies should be damaged," the experts note.

It is said that this operation once again demonstrated that the SBU knows exactly where to strike – just as it did during the strikes against Russian strategic aviation as part of Operation Spider's Web.

Another important aspect remains unexplained: how exactly the Ukrainian drone managed to penetrate not only Novorossiysk Bay but also the naval base itself, bypassing booms and likely anti-sabotage nets. Russia, however, was aware of Ukraine's presence of underwater drones, yet this did not hinder the operation.

"Typically, such facilities are protected from underwater threats by nets. And Russia was aware of the existence of underwater drones in Ukraine," Defense Express notes.

Strategically, this strike means Russia has already lost half of the Varshavyanka-class submarines that were in the Black Sea at the start of the full-scale invasion. As of February 24, 2022, four such submarines were stationed there: B-237 Rostov-on-Don, B-265 Krasnodar, B-268 Velikiy Novgorod, and B-271 Kolpino.

Experts recall that the Rostov-on-Don was hit twice. The first time was in September 2023, when a cruise missile successfully hit a submarine for the first time in history. The second time was in August 2024, after which the submarine was officially reported to have sunk.

It has not yet been determined which of the three other Varshavyanka submarines was the target of the Sub Sea Baby attack. However, this means that Russia has no more than two operational submarines left in the Black Sea. This also means the loss of one more Kalibr cruise missile carrier.

Experts say the Paltus-class submarine B-871 Alrosa, which is formally operational, deserves special mention. However, it is not a carrier of Kalibr missiles, and its full-scale use in the war against Ukraine remains questionable.

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