The Week Ahead - 25th January 2016

good morning Traders and welcome to the week ahead from Traders for Traders okay fantastic week ahead here for us certainly in Australia because we've got a day off tomorrow it's Australia Day uh holiday on Tuesday here in Sydney um but don't let that think it's going to slow down the market is just Australia's Got That holiday so um quiet start to the week so far this is the charts it's actually 2:00 Syd any time but really the rest of the market is just getting going um fundamental data wise we've not seen uh and there isn't much out today uh Na business confidence came out earlier slightly lower than the previous number um and that's pretty much it for the Asian session but looking ahead for tonight only one real decent piece of data coming out and that's the German ifo business climate um that's at uh 8m Sydney time so certainly be looking for um Euro to maybe move a bit on the back of that and having a whip over to our Euro uh Euro chart just sitting on this trend line it's not the best trend line in the world but it is starting to form nicely and you can see here where we've got a bit of consolidation on it it's just moved uh a little bit off off there now it's probably going to be a good trading level to go off whether you're a be a bare oil bull at the moment now um let's be honest the uh the theme of the last few weeks hasn't changed this week and I think we're going to continue to be uh Equity watching and this is the equity markets as they stand at the moment um D Jones and most of you would have known that the uh the markets finished off the week actually quite well having had a bit of a roller coaster throughout last week D Jones finished uh up 1.3 on Friday S&P 2 uh these are obviously live prices now in the Asian session so the Nick ey um is actually lower than where Futures had it priced in opening but still still healthy numbers they're all in blue um and the Chinese ones which are probably more dominant at the moment up 1.17 in uh shenzen and up 0.9 in the Shanghai um so risk on trades looking fairly good so this is reflected across the board here's Dolly Yen and this is that recovery seen in the equities from late last week reflected in the uh in the currencies um and just bring you in a bit closer on this dollar Yen chart a nice move up from those lows around 116 the figure and we're currently trading around 11875 so decent moves there in the currencies on the back on the back of the equity moves we're certainly going to be seeing a lot more of that this week I think don't forget it's the last week of the month um so we do tend to have a it's very low on fundamental data releases so you don't get that catalyst so you will be able to go with the trend fortunately for us the trend really is to follow equities this week so um it will still be whippy keep an eye on it keep trading your levels and you'll see as I go through the charts that the levels are really working quite well okay let's get stuck into what we've got uh left for the rest of the week so as I said tonight in uh in Europe we've got that ifo that's going to be the dominant piece of information um but later on really late in Europe 5 AM Sydney time um ECB president dragi speaking again so back to our Euro charts obviously we had the ECB last week that gave us this rock and roll movement so above 109 all the way down um to hit this trend line which was quite nice and then bounc the way back to 109 again it was very volatile um just your trading accordingly um then we move on to uh Tuesday as I said it's a bank holiday here for Australia Day uh so quiet over here in the antibodies um but certainly the rest of Asia is going to be up and running not too much in the way of fundamental data um so once again we'll be back to watching those stocks and the Nick eye open and the Chinese uh moves moving on Tuesday evening um fairly quiet on actual data but the bank of England Governor carne is speaking now let's go back to last week and if you if you followed last week's uh preview I was looking to see if we're going to get the Catalyst to start seeing a bit of strength come into Sterling now we actually did get that move and the data backed it up so we got three decent pieces of data out of uh out of the UK actually with the exception two decent pieces one with the the retail sales wasn't so good um but what threw a spanner in the works was governor Carney coming out and talking he wants that 2% in inflation before there's any thought of a hike um and that drove cable lower over the week funny enough finished up pretty much where we started around this sort of 143 level um it was a bit rock and roll good indication on the strength of Sterling really comes on this chart Euro Sterling and probably Sterling Yen so I think let's have a little look back here we go I was talking here I'm I was getting a bit contrarian looking for the Sterling to appreciate it did but it was a hell of a rocky road all the way through and that's because of what we got out of the ECB um what we got out the stock markets and then eventually what we got from uh Bank of England Governor so it has appreciated it could well be the start of Sterling appreciating certainly against the Euro and it looks like against the dollar as well but this is pretty much a risk on trade so keep an eye on what's coming out from these guys the central Bankers are really going to be dominant this week moving on to Wednesday once again really quiet in the Asian session we've got not much in the way of uh um in oh sorry Wednesday morning um us data coming out CB consumer confidence that's not a massive number some people have got it down as tier one me it's really tier two it's expected to come out as 96.6 so if we're pushing up for a 100 then you can see the dollar appreciate um always when you're trying to put these trades on the moment be aware of what's going on in the stock so for instance if a dollar appreciation number comes out and stocks are on the on the front foot probably something like Dolly Yen's a good trade to get into if it's the other way around and stocks are on the uh are on the back foot and getting knocked you probably want to buy dollars against something like the Euro that's where you're going to get your extra trade from we'll cover that uh when we're doing the live trade webinars so holiday here on Tuesday we hit Wednesday uh with big numbers in Australia CPI quarter on quarter expected to come out 0.3% um this could take Aussie out of its sort of lower comfort zone we've got used to these low numbers um and China's been dominating that Chinese stocks have been drive driving it lower as has Chinese data now the Aussie data if CPI inflation comes out stronger could see us knocked back up to the top side of this range and that might change sentiment but um we're never going to be too sure until we see that data coming out that's pretty much it for us here in uh Asia on Wednesday um as I said very very quiet tier two data through the European session but there's some good stuff coming um out well Thursday morning for us here in Asia but Wednesday day for the New York and UK sessions we've got the fomc that's the biggest Central Bank in the uh financial markets check out that's 6: a for us here um and timed accordingly in the UK so sort of afternoon for the UK mornings for the US guys that is massive should see some whippy price action with the fomc obviously we got that hike uh in December let's see what they're going to be saying about that in January um followed up by probably one of the smaller developed central banks the rbnz That's Thursday morning only an hour after the um fomc funny enough that could give us a better trading conditions looking for the uh looking for the rbnz to uh probably stick at two and a half percent but their statement could be interested I fancy the downside on that if we're trading at a decent technical level we might get some really decent moves uh coming off the bat it's followed an hour and three quarters later by the trade balance but certainly whatever the rbn says if they rbnz says if they come out with something punching that is going to dominate the movs there um that's Thursday for us here in Asia we've got import prices in Australia and retail sales in uh Japan but they really won't be the big Market Movers they're pretty much secondary stuff um looking ahead into the Thursday session in Europe we've got a German import prices prelim CPI Spanish unemployment all of those second stroke third tier data you won't get too much movement off of Euro on those be aware if you've got Euro's positions they're coming out big number in the UK we will be covering it live in a webinar for gibbo and Pez are over there in our London trading floor uh the prelim GDP numbers now once again as I said last week we got a lot of Sterling data predominantly on the top side apart from those retail sales I mentioned before um we''ll be looking for the GDP to back that up 0.5% is expected so anywhere 7 or above we really get this Sterling move rocking and rolling and the Euro Sterling to the downside um if we get a disappointment I can see Sterling getting back into this uh longer term Trend which is down clearly have a look at this chart um and we'll see it break down through this trend line um and sort of start to challenge these lows again obviously that's four or five uh trading sessions away so we may already be down there or way above it by that stage um further later in uh Thursday night or Thursday day for you guys up there in the UK and US coree durable goods come out and the weekly unemployment claims so keep an eye on that durable goods month- on- month expected to come out at basically zero so nice easy trading opportunities once again and we'll be covering it live in the uh live trading sessions keep an eye on what stocks are doing they're still going to dominate the move even when you've got Central Bankers talking and even when you've got these big pieces of data they'll take over the move give you a short-term bias for maybe an hour two hours um but the stock market those risk on riskof trades that we've been seeing for the last three weeks they're going to dominate um into the Friday session here in uh um the Asian time zone we've really got nothing again our PPI out of Australia is not a bad piece of data I'd still say it's second tier that's expected to come out 0.6 we've got CPI household spending in Japan once again most of this Japanese data will be completely dominated by what's going on in the nickar and what's going on in the Chinese stock markets in the Asian session but if you've got positions in the yen in the Aussie in the Kiwi don't forget about these bits and pieces coming out you will hear hear from the boj Friday afternoon as well that can make the uh dolly in move four times out of five we don't see much out of it but that one out of five when the boj is something that hits the market you will get one maybe 200 points out of it so be aware that they're going to be talking as usual no time given for them you'll just see a load of headlines come out on your news Service uh Friday into the European session got German retail sales we've got Spanish CPI all of these things pretty much second tier data probably only move Euro 20 or 30 points if they are massively different um what we have got is the CPI flash estimate that is a much bigger number that's expected to come out 0.4 that's for the whole Euro Zone um if we do get a decent move one way or the other and to be honest um given current normal markets that we're seeing at the moment it'll be downside from the Euro um then you will see Euro get hit Traders are still looking to hit Euro on any bad data once again can't reiterate this enough keep in mind what's happening in the stock markets when you're entering these trades on um fundamental data if they're going with the trend you want to stick with it for a bit longer if it's a counter Trend it's probably a much shorter trade it doesn't mean you don't put it on just look to take your profits a little bit quicker and finishing off the week for us we got GDP both in Canada and advanced GDP in the US now once again for those trading dollar CAD um this date is out exactly the same time so you don't always get that great moving dollar CAD um but that GDP uh number in the US is important expected to come out 0.8 we'll all be looking at it the fomc will be looking at it you'll probably hear the fomc mention it um in their in their chat two days prior um that can give us a little bit of a whippy move on a Friday afternoon um a few gets a second tier us data after that Chicago PMI um employment cost uh index and the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment they probably won't have too much of an effect on the market really it's going to be on that last thing uh of the week that advanced GDP out the us could be that last Catalyst we see to to move it so guys that's pretty much it that's the week ahead there's a fair bit of stuff coming out but it should be uh it should be maintaining its Trend unfortunately the real Trend at the moment is to trade with the stock market so keep an eye on your levels it's easily tradable at the moment risk on buy your Aussie ke your Aussie Yen dollar Yen Sterling and uh and kiwi is still is still moving with these stocks in the Asian session um riskof you're seeing Euro rally obviously you're seeing dollar Yen get hit and the Yen crosses get hit as well keep an eye on those that is still going to be the uh Trend to jump with this week make sure you're trading at decent uh technical levels when you get into it any questions guys please give us a shout uh all members we're live in the trade zone at all times as you know uh non-members watching this please whip us an email infot Traders for traders.com we'll get back to you as soon as possible thanks very much guys have a fantastic week ahead and good luck cheers