Week Ahead - 2/9/2013

good morning this is Brad Gilbert and welcome to the week ahead now first of all taking a look at the uh economic calendar we've got a huge week coming up um with a large number of major High impacting relases um the start of the week particularly belongs to the Aussie dollar that'll be the major focus with the uh as you can see here Monday uh building approvals but more importantly Tuesday retail sales followed by the RBA rap decision and then Wednesday we've got the uh Aussie J p pig so that's the sort of key part if I just switch over to the um so the Forex Factory you get a bit bit bit more scale on the whole thing um as I was s of saying Tuesday the RBA cash rate announcement we don't expect a change in rates but we do uh be very interested to see what the uh the actual statement has to say then um once we get through Wednesday's Aussie GDP numbers the wig sort of turns over towards the offshore markets where we've got the Bank of Canada first on Wednesday uh there interest rate decision uh no change expected there once again the statement is the key to the actual release then Thursday we've got the BJ um they actually don't have a set time at the moment but we'll be keeping an eye on out for any unusual activity then Thursday uh in the UK we've got the bank of England uh rate decision and statement and also their asset purchase facility vote uh that'll be very important as well then you've got the ECB about an hour later hour and a half later so you know Thursday night the markets will be quite tepid sort of sitting back watching waiting for the uh central banks to come out you know no changing rates from either of them but definitely potential impacts from their statements then once we hit uh through Thursday getting into Friday the major focus is just going to be the non-farm payrolls as it is it's Ban's um Benchmark for you know apparently tapering when the taping is going to start when when the um unemployment rate gets down to 7% at the moment it's 7.4% so this is a huge number not only is it be historically but it's even more important since um the banki the FED uh Governor has actually come out and said basically this this is the goto number all right so that's the uh the general scale on the um data this coming back to our webinar sort of uh releases as you can see the um start of the week I mean it's it's very busy with the Aussie data then we'll be switching back over to the US now I don't think the Thursday Bank of England and um ECB they're not sort of great trading opportunities they can be we actually sort of keep an eye on the charts for that you know the uh we don't expect any change in interest rates there but you know there is a huge potential with the the president of the ECB and the um governor of the bank of England also speaking so just coming back to um now your charts the best thing about this is we've got some great levels here across the uh the major currencies last week um just having a quick sort of look around the grounds here we saw Euro um uh you know dip through this sort of key trend line here at 1340 it's uh managed to sort of stay on its lows um it's sort of trading in the middle of nowhere there's potential for a move either side okay the fact that this Syrian crisis drama is playing out and and it's now looked upon as being quite weak for the US dollar the um well as the US uh government I guess not sort of coming in with their you know blasting everyone away so it's that that's going to play out this week we'll see how that goes it can can impact quite a lot if things escalate that's something we have to keep an eye on now just on over the weekend we had the Chinese manufacturing data come out come out much better than expected well you know 04 the fact is it was at 51 which sort of indicates expansion we have seen a little Gap here in the Aussie dollar and it's sort of just tweaking through this resistance level the uh at 8939 now the key part to understanding this why isn't it sort of kicking on don't forget is it is Labor Day in the US and Canada you know if one of the major centers is way usually the whole Market takes the day off not just those centers themselves so I don't expect the a to do too much ahead of that as it as it is it sort of already gapped 45 points on the open on that Chinese data so we'll see what happens from there doly Yen has come back and starting to retest this first resistance line it has gone through the uh top of the cloud there on ichimoku Cloud on the that's another thing to sort of keep an eye on that's probably due to the the crosses aussen Sterling n euren it's jumped up on the crosses uh Sterling we had a very interesting sort of week last week uh Sterling it gave back some of its gains from the previous two weeks uh it's had a pretty good run uh what we've got now is is a changing sort of scope here you've got this previous resistance line which is now sort of been blown out most Traders will be drawing the new high here so we've got a new sort of resistance level the same sort of support line on the bottom over here but we'll be reassessing these levels as we as we go along and for instance this one here is now at 15453 and this is pretty much simply what you do on the Mondays is just get your BN in your charts work out exactly what's going on in these levels and uh how you can sort of keep ahead of the game um that's the sort of key part to it isolating these key uh support resistance levels 15 15537 B half even with the currency moving the resist resistance levels at the top so one of the key things you would do at the start of the week in situation like this obviously this was the key level to break down from um just get rid of that off your chart so you don't get sort of distracted and these are the new numbers that we're actually going to be sort of focusing on all right so that's um pretty much the currencies we've got as I said some major data coming up this week we've got support and resistance on most of these currencies that gives us a great opportunity um you know both sides of the market instead of sort of looking you know a little bit randomly at the fundamental news we do have um you know some great opportunities going forward all right so you know not not too much to expect probably until uh Tuesday tomorrow's retail sales numbers in Australia um don't get too excited and start banging away now there's going to be a lot of trading opportunities as I said this week um for all those members you can simply log into to the members area at the top here of the website you'll get access to the to the webinars that way all right hope everyone has a good week and we'll see you uh on the live trading disk thanks very much